Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft

[KickHisAssZegrass]

For those interested, found a behinde the scenes documentary about Raymond and Holtz. In swedish but CC is solid.
Latest episode:

Last year Zegras was my favorite prospect to scout in years, Raymond is my guy this year, really hoping he goes #6

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Its about maximising the value of the asset. If your prospect pool desperately needs a scoring winger and is full of dmen but you have a choice between an 18 year old Pronger or an 18 year old Bobby Ryan you take Pronger every time.

I get if you have two players who are dead even then yeah you can go for need but if there’s any separation between two players I don’t know why you would take the lesser player.

The premise here is wrong.

We can have that conversation if we were picking in the top-3. We're not. We know who the top-3 are in this class and it's not changing. It's after the top-3 is when it becomes interchangeable. And according to Asst GM Madden, there are 12 prospects to really like.

What if goalie Askarov actually is a top-3 bpa? Would you draft Askarov at 6th overall when you have a young Gibby and prospect Dostal already in tow? That's what you're saying we should do since you're not including context.

Also lost is nuance.

Last year, GM Murray is on record that he was looking for a center with the 9th overall pick. When Zegras fell, it was just a miracle! I was thinking that D Broberg was going to be our pick before rumors surfaced the Oil wanted him. It's odd to want to add another center because we had Steel and Lundestrom already in our system along with Groulx. Guess Murray had seen what Steel and Lundestrom brought to the NHL level and was discouraged despite having no pipeline talent in our blue line.

Since we're talking about players 4 - 12, there are flaws to their games to where they're not projected in the top-3 for a reason. With a load of scout rankings, there are variances to each player. It seems facetious to dictate who's a lesser talent when they're not a top-3 pick. Anaheim may prefer a different prospect than one you want or anyone else. See Anaheim's 2012 first round selection that baffled everyone. We don't know who the lesser player is with respect to the organization.

There are a lot on this board and scout rankings that believe Holtz is a lesser talent. Yet, you also have some scouts that see Holtz as a better prospect than the innately gifted Raymond, with NHL Central Scouting EU ranking Raymond 2nd overall and Raymond 4th. D Drysdale has been compared to a Right handed Fowler by us on this board, which also isn't a bad selection at 6th overall. So who has the final authority before the draft? No one. But we have preferences knowing full well there's nothing definitive. And that's the problem with the comment - it's definitive when it isn't.

It is about maximizing the value of the asset, but that value belongs to the Ducks' scouting staff and not us. We have our own values and our own preferences, but that shouldn't discount other values and preferences "lesser". I'm okay with whoever the Ducks pick at 6. I can't change who the Ducks have in store to select, but I do have a preference on who that player should be.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Drafting Holtz at #6 is also drafting based on positional and player type need than BPA. The Ducks do need a shooter and a winger that put the puck reliably in the net and quality shots on goal.
If the Ducks reach for a shooter at #6 it likely will be Quinn who brings much faster skating and 2way play.
But even then i'm skeptical they'd use #6 on shooters like Holtz/Quinn who look to be taken around #10 because they traded off Sprong and Aberg and could have just let Sprong develop as a goal scorer.

Sprong didn't have a motor to play a two-way game. Aberg scored 7 goals in four NHL seasons before coming to us and scoring 11 goals. Both of those players were 2nd round selections. Holtz is a projected top-10 selection. Vastly different talents on display here that you're dismissing. You're also dismissing Holtz' playmaking ability, while not elite, he does possess it as shown with Raymond's OT gold medal winning goal at WJC -18 or his 7 assists playing against men, which is one more assist than Lucas Raymond. You're also dismissing Holtz is playing on a bigger sheet of ice while playing against men.

Holtz got promoted to play against men so fast in 2019-20 season that his junior stint was only 2 games. In those two games, Holtz put up 7 goals and 2 assists. His 7 goals has him ranked tied for 9th for that junior team at the end of the season. The two highest goal scorers for Holtz junior team scored 16 goals in 36 games and 14 goals in 43 games. Holts put up 7 goals in two games. That's how far ahead he was at junior league. It wasn't a fluke he's a goal scorer because the previous year he scored 30 goals in 38 games. The second highest goal scorer last year for Holtz' junior team was 19 goals in 41 games.

Quinn scored 52 goals in juniors this past season. He scored only 12 goals in the previous season with the same junior team. We don't know how many goals Holtz would have put up if he played only in juniors last year. Instead, Holtz makes the huge jump from juniors to mens. An equivalent to NA is jumping from juniors to the NHL, bypassing the AHL.

So what did Holtz do against men? He scored 9 goals and 7 dimes in 35 games. To add perspective, he ranked 5th overall in goal scoring for his team at a men's league. The highest goal scorer on his team had 17 goals at age 32. The second highest goal forward goal scorer had 12 goals at age 33.

It's difficult to compare Quinn to Holtz since they played at different levels. What Holtz does have over Quinn is consistency of goal scoring.

As for two-way play, again, it's difficult to assess because Quinn played against his peers and Holtz played against men. There are scouts that share that Holtz plays a 200-ft game, but needs to work on his defensive side of the game more. Holtz is willing to play defense. That's a significantly far cry from Sprong, who we have reports and videos where he doesn't involve himself in the defensive side of the game at the AHL level.

Holtz brings more to the table than Sprong and Aberg. Both Sprong and Aberg produced here when they couldn't produce before at the NHL level. That speaks more about us than their scoring prowess. But both didn't bring that compete level. We should know that about Sprong, but you didn't get the memo on that. Welp, now you know. As for Aberg, here's an article with a tweet on Aberg from coach RC: link. Sprong is just Aberg version 2.0. Scouts rave about Holtz' motor and how it's always on.

Because Sprong and Aberg were traded away is the reason why you believe shouldn't draft a goal scorer? Hmmm...

 

[KickHisAssZegrass]

I agree with Holtz being the best goal scorer in the draft and I think he has a fairly complete offensive package. Quinn's rise to a bigger role on a stacked junior team is impressive but not nearly as much as Holtz' ability to jump into a mens league and produce, especially when you factor in his intl tournaments. Put Holtz on that 67's team and he probably scores 70.

 

[Paul4587]

I agree with Holtz being the best goal scorer in the draft and I think he has a fairly complete offensive package. Quinn's rise to a bigger role on a stacked junior team is impressive but not nearly as much as Holtz' ability to jump into a mens league and produce, especially when you factor in his intl tournaments. Put Holtz on that 67's team and he probably scores 70.

Given that in the last 30 years the only two U18 forwards who have achieved this in the OHL are Lindros and Tavares, I highly doubt it.

 

[JabbaJabba]

I had a draft related dream last week. Lafreniere went first but Holtz was second followed by Askarov. Don't remember who went fourth and fifth but it was Ducks' turn to pick a player and at least Stutzle was still available. Hopefully that happens in October haha.

 

[eternalbedhead]

I had a draft related dream last week. Lafreniere went first but Holtz was second followed by Askarov. Don't remember who went fourth and fifth but it was Ducks' turn to pick a player and at least Stutzle was still available. Hopefully that happens in October haha.

I will cry happy tears if Stutzle is still available at 6. Lol.

 

[bsu]

Stutzle will be neck and neck with Laf when it's all said and done imo.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Last year Zegras was my favorite prospect to scout in years, Raymond is my guy this year, really hoping he goes #6

I have a bad feeling he will be picked at #4 or #5. Raymond seems to be in the same tier as Byfield and Stutzle and could go as high as #3 to Ottawa, all 3 in this tier are fast skaters.
Then the 3rd tier is like Rossi/Perfetti/Quinn/Holtz with 3 out of that 4 having questionable skating as well as 2 of them being tiny little guys.

Drysdale and Sanderson could go as high as 5 but could also go as low as 8. Not a fan of the top 2 dmen in this draft, their ceiling seems only Lindholm for Sanderson and Fowler for Drysdale.
I liked the previous drafts Dmen better, Byram, Seider and Broberg seem better imo.

 

[Kalv]

I have a bad feeling he will be picked at #4 or #5. Raymond seems to be in the same tier as Byfield and Stutzle and could go as high as #3 to Ottawa, all 3 in this tier are fast skaters.
Then the 3rd tier is like Rossi/Perfetti/Quinn/Holtz with 3 out of that 4 having questionable skating as well as 2 of them being tiny little guys.

Drysdale and Sanderson could go as high as 5 but could also go as low as 8. Not a fan of the top 2 dmen in this draft, their ceiling seems only Lindholm for Sanderson and Fowler for Drysdale.
I liked the previous drafts Dmen better, Byram, Seider and Broberg seem better imo.

Last year as well, maybe excluding Byram, but the D class was seemed weak. It took a bit for Seider and Broberg to prove themselves. And Broberg is having just a nice camp right now.

Just a thing to keep in mind.

 

[duckpuck]

The premise here is wrong.

We can have that conversation if we were picking in the top-3. We're not. We know who the top-3 are in this class and it's not changing. It's after the top-3 is when it becomes interchangeable. And according to Asst GM Madden, there are 12 prospects to really like.

What if goalie Askarov actually is a top-3 bpa? Would you draft Askarov at 6th overall when you have a young Gibby and prospect Dostal already in tow? That's what you're saying we should do since you're not including context.

Also lost is nuance.

Last year, GM Murray is on record that he was looking for a center with the 9th overall pick. When Zegras fell, it was just a miracle! I was thinking that D Broberg was going to be our pick before rumors surfaced the Oil wanted him. It's odd to want to add another center because we had Steel and Lundestrom already in our system along with Groulx. Guess Murray had seen what Steel and Lundestrom brought to the NHL level and was discouraged despite having no pipeline talent in our blue line.

Since we're talking about players 4 - 12, there are flaws to their games to where they're not projected in the top-3 for a reason. With a load of scout rankings, there are variances to each player. It seems facetious to dictate who's a lesser talent when they're not a top-3 pick. Anaheim may prefer a different prospect than one you want or anyone else. See Anaheim's 2012 first round selection that baffled everyone. We don't know who the lesser player is with respect to the organization.

There are a lot on this board and scout rankings that believe Holtz is a lesser talent. Yet, you also have some scouts that see Holtz as a better prospect than the innately gifted Raymond, with NHL Central Scouting EU ranking Raymond 2nd overall and Raymond 4th. D Drysdale has been compared to a Right handed Fowler by us on this board, which also isn't a bad selection at 6th overall. So who has the final authority before the draft? No one. But we have preferences knowing full well there's nothing definitive. And that's the problem with the comment - it's definitive when it isn't.

It is about maximizing the value of the asset, but that value belongs to the Ducks' scouting staff and not us. We have our own values and our own preferences, but that shouldn't discount other values and preferences "lesser". I'm okay with whoever the Ducks pick at 6. I can't change who the Ducks have in store to select, but I do have a preference on who that player should be.

Man - you're all over the place on this one. First of all, saying that there are 12 prospects to really like is not the same thing as saying everyone after 3 is interchangeable. Far from it. No doubt, the ducks (like many on this board) have their rankings. The difference is the ducks get to make the pick.

In terms of the goalie example, I think that's a fair point. Unlike other positions, you can only play one goalie at a time and the backup doesn't play very often such that there's not much value in a backup. For that reason (and others including the fact that goalies are not as projectable), goalies tend to not be picked in the first round. In other words, these factors are taken into account in a goalies' prospect ranking. And that's true for all teams - even those who don't have strong goal tending. But this thinking doesn't really hold true to forward v. defensemen.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

What if goalie Askarov actually is a top-3 bpa? Would you draft Askarov at 6th overall when you have a young Gibby and prospect Dostal already in tow? That's what you're saying we should do since you're not including context.

Now THAT is interesting.. Could you imagine? Drafting Askarov and having Dostal and Gibby?

 

[Rasp]

I really like Quinn he is a more complete prospect than Holtz. His improvement was huge this season and he still has more growth in him.

Iv settled into Perfetti > Quinn > Rossi as my choices. Raymond comes across as he thinks his talent is enough that he doesnt have to work hard to suceed so he isnt in my top 6, talent wise he is top 3. I would still be fine with picking Raymond, Holts, Sanderson & Jarvis. Also would be ok with Drysdale & Schneider but feel its a bit of a reach.

Anyone I havent named I feel is a step down from all of these guys and would be a big reach if we took them.

 

[Kalv]

I really like Quinn he is a more complete prospect than Holtz. His improvement was huge this season and he still has more growth in him.

Iv settled into Perfetti > Quinn > Rossi as my choices. Raymond comes across as he thinks his talent is enough that he doesnt have to work hard to suceed so he isnt in my top 6, talent wise he is top 3. I would still be fine with picking Raymond, Holts, Sanderson & Jarvis. Also would be ok with Drysdale & Schneider but feel its a bit of a reach.

Anyone I havent named I feel is a step down from all of these guys and would be a big reach if we took them.

Haven't watched too much film on Quinn but well, he is playing weaker opposition and some of the goals look just silly-simple. That's not a knock on him, a goal is a goal.
Holtz I think has showed in international competition that he can have more than just goal scoring.
Interesting comparing 2 very different level leagues. I'm not confident towards them of who is the better one.

 

[Rasp]

Haven't watched too much film on Quinn but well, he is playing weaker opposition and some of the goals look just silly-simple. That's not a knock on him, a goal is a goal.
Holtz I think has showed in international competition that he can have more than just goal scoring.
Interesting comparing 2 very different level leagues. I'm not confident towards them of who is the better one.

It is hard to compare their stats when they are in 2 different leagues. Holtz is a better shooter and is more of a sniper.

What I like about Quinn is:
He scores most of his goals in 5 on 5
200ft impact power forward that can dominate
Gets into high danger scoring areas at a high rate
Huge development curve
High hockey sense, higher than Holtz
Has poise
Fantastic motor and workrate
Maturity and willing to do what it takes to make a difference.
Good playmaking

His weakness is his skating but his hockey sense has made up for it so far.

This is a great observation in the black book which makes me want him.
"He doesn’t give a lot of time or space for his opponents to work with; there’s a pressure that Quinn creates with how much he’s willing to work and hustle. It’s rare to see a player skate through all three-zones, attack three opposing players at once, generate a scoring chance and then rush back down the ice to stick-lift an opponent directly in the slot preventing a goal."

Holtz shooting is better than Quinn but not by that much. Quinns defensive work is way better than Holtz tho which makes him a better prospect.

 

[Kalv]

It is hard to compare their stats when they are in 2 different leagues. Holtz is a better shooter and is more of a sniper.

What I like about Quinn is:
He scores most of his goals in 5 on 5
200ft impact power forward that can dominate
Gets into high danger scoring areas at a high rate
Huge development curve
High hockey sense, higher than Holtz
Has poise
Fantastic motor and workrate
Maturity and willing to do what it takes to make a difference.
Good playmaking

His weakness is his skating but his hockey sense has made up for it so far.

This is a great observation in the black book which makes me want him.
"He doesn’t give a lot of time or space for his opponents to work with; there’s a pressure that Quinn creates with how much he’s willing to work and hustle. It’s rare to see a player skate through all three-zones, attack three opposing players at once, generate a scoring chance and then rush back down the ice to stick-lift an opponent directly in the slot preventing a goal."

Holtz shooting is better than Quinn but not by that much. Quinns defensive work is way better than Holtz tho which makes him a better prospect.

I guess will watch more about him, as I did not saw the things you pointed out in him. But yeah - did not see that much of a film.

 

[Kalv]

Not a fan of the top 2 dmen in this draft, their ceiling seems only Lindholm for Sanderson and Fowler for Drysdale.
I liked the previous drafts Dmen better, Byram, Seider and Broberg seem better imo.

I'm just stat picking, but Drysdale actually had more points in the WJC than Byram, being almost a full year younger, on the same team.
Byram 0+2
Drysdale 1+2
Both played 7 games.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I'm just stat picking, but Drysdale actually had more points in the WJC than Byram, being almost a full year younger, on the same team.
Byram 0+2
Drysdale 1+2
Both played 7 games.

I thought Drysdale looked more impressive, though I expected Byram to stand out more than he did.

 

[Dick Steel]

The premise here is wrong.

Last year, GM Murray is on record that he was looking for a center with the 9th overall pick. When Zegras fell, it was just a miracle! I was thinking that D Broberg was going to be our pick before rumors surfaced the Oil wanted him. It's odd to want to add another center because we had Steel and Lundestrom already in our system along with Groulx. Guess Murray had seen what Steel and Lundestrom brought to the NHL level and was discouraged despite having no pipeline talent in our blue line.

Last year Zegras just fall to us. And propaply it was no brainer to take him. Ducks was highly on Dach and Kreps last year. They both gone earlier...

This years draft is Madden´s final year.... Dach and Kreps went earlier than Zegras last year. Zegras and bpa...that just happened last year.

Perfetti, Raymond and Holtz are big numbers in his book. Rumours says that Perfetti had make big inprovent his skating in this summer.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Last year Zegras just fall to us. And propaply it was no brainer to take him. Ducks was highly on Dach and Kreps last year. They both gone earlier...

This years draft is Madden´s final year.... Dach and Kreps went earlier than Zegras last year. Zegras and bpa...that just happened last year.

Perfetti, Raymond and Holtz are big numbers in his book. Rumours says that Perfetti had make big inprovent his skating in this summer.

This is exciting news. His skinny frame will allow him to improve more on his skating. Hopefully Raymond or Perfetti are still there at #6.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

I'm just stat picking, but Drysdale actually had more points in the WJC than Byram, being almost a full year younger, on the same team.
Byram 0+2
Drysdale 1+2
Both played 7 games.

That is true. I was told before Byram is expected to be more higher ceiling & a goal scoring type Dman, while Drysdale looks like his ceiling is RD version of Fowler.
They say Sanderson's ceiling is Lindholm. Seider & Broberg appear to have higher ceilings than that.
With Seider he has a very nice slapshot, is capable of a mean streak & is defensively like a Lindholm.
Then compare Broberg to Schneider/Guhle/Wallinder/Barron/Grans.

 

[Ducks DVM]

New thread here : Prospect Info: - 2020 NHL Draft Part 2