2020 NHL Draft: Top 70 Russian Prospects (pre-draft update added)

Caser

@RUSProspects
May 21, 2013
13,650
12,430
Riga/Yaroslavl
twitter.com
And maybe a final expansion to my list and in this group there are players, who I kind of didn't understand of what they are capable either due to limited viewings or due to limited roles on their teams or just because they left a contraversial impression, but I still felt there might be something good.

61. LD Daniil Zaitsev
62. C/W Yegor Bryzgalov
63. LD Nikita Yefremov
64. LD Ivan Rogov
65. LW Daniil Gutik
66. LD Ilya Morozov
67. W Andrei Bakanov
68. LD Dmitriy Tyuvilin
69. LD Igor Chibrikov
70. LD Mikhail Gordeyev
 

Caser

@RUSProspects
May 21, 2013
13,650
12,430
Riga/Yaroslavl
twitter.com
In case anyone here likes meaningless numbers, here's the track record of current NHL team GMs in terms of drafting Russian players (last 5 drafts since 2015, as I think the classic Russian factor ended then).


GM​

Current team​

# of drafts in charge since 2015​

total # of Russian players drafted​

# players drafted from Russian leagues​

Russians picked in 1st round​

Russian league players picked in 1st round​

Russians per draft​

Russian league players per draft​
Don Waddell
CAR

2

3

2

1

0

1.50

1.00

Kyle Dubas

TOR

2

3

1

0

0

1.50

0.50

Joe Sakic

COL

5

7

5

0

0

1.40

1.00

Steve Yzerman

DET

5

5

5

0

0

1.00

1.00

Julien BriseBois

TBL

1

1

1

0

0

1.00

1.00

Kelly McCrimmon

VGK

1

1

1

0

0

1.00

1.00

Jarmo Kekalainen

CBJ

5

5

4

0

0

1.00

0.80

Chuck Fletcher

PHI

4

4

2

0

0

1.00

0.50

David Poile

NSH

5

5

2

0

0

1.00

0.40

Doug Armstrong

STL

5

4

3

1

1

0.80

0.60

Doug Wilson

SJS

5

4

2

0

0

0.80

0.40

John Chayka

ARZ

4

3

2

0

0

0.75

0.50

Jim Benning

VAN

5

3

3

1

1

0.60

0.60

Marc Bergevin

MTL

5

3

2

1

0

0.60

0.40

Ken Holland

EDM

5

3

2

1

0

0.60

0.40

Brian MacLellan

WSH

5

3

1

2

1

0.60

0.20

Brad Treliving

CAL

5

3

1

0

0

0.60

0.20

Lou Lamoriello

NYI

4

2

2

0

0

0.50

0.50

Stan Bowman

CHI

5

2

2

0

0

0.40

0.40

Don Sweeney

BOS

5

2

2

0

0

0.40

0.40

Rob Blake

LAK

3

1

1

0

0

0.33

0.33

Jeff Gorton

NYR

4

1

1

1

1

0.25

0.25

Dale Tallon

FLA

4

1

1

1

1

0.25

0.25

Jim Nill

DAL

5

1

1

1

1

0.20

0.20

Kevin Cheveldayoff

WPG

5

1

1

0

0

0.20

0.20

Jim Rutherford

PIT

5

1

0

0

0

0.20

0.00

Jason Botterill

BUF

3

0

0

0

0

0.00

0.00

Pierre Dorion

OTT

4

0

0

0

0

0.00

0.00

Bob Murray

ANA

5

0

0

0

0

0.00

0.00

Tom Fitzgerald

NJD

0

0

0

0

0

-

-

Bill Guerin

MIN

0

0

0

0

0

-

-
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
Last edited:

themelkman

Always Delivers
Apr 26, 2015
11,409
8,386
Calgary, Alberta
In case anyone here likes meaningless numbers, here's the track record of current NHL team GMs in terms of drafting Russian players (last 5 drafts since 2015, as I think the classic Russian factor ended then).

GM​
Current team​
# of drafts in charge since 2015​
total # of Russian players drafted​
# players drafted from Russian leagues​
Russians picked in 1st round​
Russian league players picked in 1st round​
Russians per draft​
Russian league players per draft​
Don WaddellCAR232101.501.00
Kyle DubasTOR231001.500.50
Joe SakicCOL575001.401.00
Steve YzermanDET555001.001.00
Julien BriseBoisTBL111001.001.00
Kelly McCrimmonVGK111001.001.00
Jarmo KekalainenCBJ554001.000.80
Chuck FletcherPHI442001.000.50
David PoileNSH552001.000.40
Doug ArmstrongSTL543110.800.60
Doug WilsonSJS542000.800.40
John ChaykaARZ432000.750.50
Jim BenningVAN533110.600.60
Marc BergevinMTL532100.600.40
Ken HollandEDM532100.600.40
Brian MacLellanWSH531210.600.20
Brad TrelivingCAL531000.600.20
Lou LamorielloNYI422000.500.50
Stan BowmanCHI522000.400.40
Don SweeneyBOS522000.400.40
Rob BlakeLAK311000.330.33
Jeff GortonNYR411110.250.25
Dale TallonFLA411110.250.25
Jim NillDAL511110.200.20
Kevin CheveldayoffWPG511000.200.20
Jim RutherfordPIT510000.200.00
Jason BotterillBUF300000.000.00
Pierre DorionOTT400000.000.00
Bob MurrayANA500000.000.00
Tom FitzgeraldNJD00000--
Bill GuerinMIN00000--
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
The data doesnt really show, but the sharks have gone in pretty fully on russian scouting in the last two years. I would expect atleast 1-2 russian picks this year
 

Harbessix

Registered User
Jun 2, 2010
1,068
839
Halifax, NS
The data doesnt really show, but the sharks have gone in pretty fully on russian scouting in the last two years. I would expect atleast 1-2 russian picks this year
Just since 2017 via draft and free agency we’ve added Chekhovich, Kotkov, Kniazev, Spiridonov, Ibragimov, Yurtaikin, Knyzhov and Melnichuk.
 
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Caser

@RUSProspects
May 21, 2013
13,650
12,430
Riga/Yaroslavl
twitter.com
Just since 2017 via draft and free agency we’ve added Chekhovich, Kotkov, Kniazev, Spiridonov, Ibragimov, Yurtaikin, Knyzhov and Melnichuk.

I get what you're saying, but the free agency is a bit of a different thing, for example, Sens are pretty active at trying to get Russian UFAs, but at the draft - not so much. Particularly I mean the management's willingness to wait, as when you sign a free agent, he is reporting to you immediately.
 

SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
16,773
First, a general question for all of the prospects on this list: How would you evaluate these guys based on offensive/defensive hockey IQ (since for many prospects, it can differ)?

Instead of asking you to do that with all 70 guys on this list, which is unreasonable, I am going to list the Russians I have on my draft board right no and simply ask which ones have either exceptional hockey IQ, good IQ (still enough of a strength to make them a viable NHL prospect but perhaps not anything that will make them stand out without a lot of other plus skills) or weak IQ in the offensive and defensive games:

Artyom Galimov
Danila Galenyuk
Daniil Pylenkov
Yegor Chinakhov
Rodion Amirov
Alexander Nikishin
Maxim Groshev
Ivan Didkovsky
Shakir Mukhamadullin
Bogdan Trineyev
Yaroslav Askarov
Marat Khusnutdinov
Alexander Pashin
Pavel Tyutnev
Yegor Sokolov
Pavel Gogolov
Yaroslav Likhachyov

Additionally, if there are any guys not on that list that you think are worth mentioning/adding based on their IQ (I know Zlodeyev is apparently the smartest player on your list, but I have a separate question about him), I would love to hear who you would add.


On top of that, I have a few questions:
1) For Zlodeyev, is there a reason for the lack of offensive production at the international level? I like the IQ projection you described, but I have concerns about the upside of Russians who either have limited exposure on the International stage or had trouble producing consistently. It is arguably the main reason I have guys like Didkovsky and Trineyev on my board (although as guys who would be late round picks) but excluded guys like Zlodeyev, Ovchinnikov and Beryozkin.
1.5) Kind of a slight follow up, but are there any Russian prospects who would have gained more international exposure (and projected to do well enough to potentially increase their standing with said exposure) had it not been for Covid-19 shutting tournaments such as the U18's down? Especially in terms of guys who had limited international exposure otherwise (i.e. Beryozkin and Ovchinnikov).
2) How do Galenyuk and Pylenkov compare to Gavrikov circa 2015? I am especially curious to hear about their IQ, but even in general I am curious about their skills. Both have a lot more KHL experience than Gavrikov by the time he was drafted, and I know the book on Galenyuk especially is quite comparable to that of Gavrikov, but I feel as though Gavrikov is going to have to be the baseline for them to earn a pick. Based on what I saw in the U20's, I was left on the fence with both of them.
3) For Skotnikov, I know the size is an issue and that you said he had some rebound control issues. The one thing going for him is this is a quite weak draft for goalies, so if teams really want a guy, they may be more willing to take a late round flyer on him than in a normal draft. My question is if it was not for Askarov playing ahead of him, would he have been given more international opportunities? Also, if it was not for size, would he have been viewed in a much more favourable light (i.e. top 75 pick), or would he still be a mid-late round goalie at best?
 
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Caser

@RUSProspects
May 21, 2013
13,650
12,430
Riga/Yaroslavl
twitter.com
THat's a big one, but I certainly enjoy that kind of responses, thanks. :)

First, a general question for all of the prospects on this list: How would you evaluate these guys based on offensive/defensive hockey IQ (since for many prospects, it can differ)?

Instead of asking you to do that with all 70 guys on this list, which is unreasonable, I am going to list the Russians I have on my draft board right no and simply ask which ones have either exceptional hockey IQ, good IQ (still enough of a strength to make them a viable NHL prospect but perhaps not anything that will make them stand out without a lot of other plus skills) or weak IQ in the offensive and defensive games:

Artyom Galimov
Danila Galenyuk
Daniil Pylenkov
Yegor Chinakhov
Rodion Amirov
Alexander Nikishin
Maxim Groshev
Ivan Didkovsky
Shakir Mukhamadullin
Bogdan Trineyev
Yaroslav Askarov
Marat Khusnutdinov
Alexander Pashin
Pavel Tyutnev
Yegor Sokolov
Pavel Gogolov
Yaroslav Likhachyov

Additionally, if there are any guys not on that list that you think are worth mentioning/adding based on their IQ (I know Zlodeyev is apparently the smartest player on your list, but I have a separate question about him), I would love to hear who you would add.

That's not an easy question, since, if we think of it that way, the hockey IQ is an umbrella term that covers a lot of stuff: creativity, reliability, vision, timing, decision making, character, consistency etc. For example, Likhachyov: he has always been creative and this season more-or-less consistent, but not sure if that would make him a high-IQ guy in my eyes. Still, if you would like me to try to group them somehow, I'll try, but I'm not sure it won't cause a confusion, I'll use my list though:

Aside from Zlodeyev, in the "great" category I'd have Askarov, Pashin, Beryozkin and, maybe, Alalykin and Chizhikov (that was probably unexpected to everyone, but I like what he does).

In the "good" I'd probably place Groshev, Trineyev, Sokolov, Kuznetsov, Tsyplakov, Sheshin, maybe Shashkov and Marushev.

In the "weak" group (actually I'd prefer to use "questionable", since labeling them as "weak" already at this point of their careers requires them to do something really dumb) I'd place Mukhamadullin, Tyutnev, Gutik, Likhachyov, Steklov, Galenyuk, Tyuvilin, Gordin, Akhtyamov, Didkovskiy.

As for others I'd say "average" would be appropriate, but again, those things should be viewed in details, this is a very approximate grouping, as for different players in the same group this hockey IQ evaluation might mean totally different things.

On top of that, I have a few questions:
1) For Zlodeyev, is there a reason for the lack of offensive production at the international level? I like the IQ projection you described, but I have concerns about the upside of Russians who either have limited exposure on the International stage or had trouble producing consistently. It is arguably the main reason I have guys like Didkovsky and Trineyev on my board (although as guys who would be late round picks) but excluded guys like Zlodeyev, Ovchinnikov and Beryozkin.

Zlodeyev's reason for the lack of offensive production is the WJAC - while he was on the middle-six line, it didn't exactly click, so only 1 A in 6 games (although I'm pretty sure one more assist was "stolen" from him by stats guys). In other tournaments he did better: 2G+1A in 4 games at the 5Nations, 1G+2A in 5 games at the Hlinka's.

1.5) Kind of a slight follow up, but are there any Russian prospects who would have gained more international exposure (and projected to do well enough to potentially increase their standing with said exposure) had it not been for Covid-19 shutting tournaments such as the U18's down? Especially in terms of guys who had limited international exposure otherwise (i.e. Beryozkin and Ovchinnikov).

Well, every player of the U18 NT could've had another opportunity to show what they got at the U18 WJC stage, particularly I think everyone wanted to see Ovchinnikov, but maybe Trineyev woud've benefited from that (as he wasn't there at the WJAC) and maybe even Agapov. As for guys like Beryozkin and other 2001 borns, they lost an opportunity to showcase themselves both at the 4 Nations and, what might be even more important, at the Sochi U20 camp, as there would be a lot of scouts there and previous experience shows that a lot of guys, who look good there, get selected. But again, maybe they would dissapoint us, we will never know now.

2) How do Galenyuk and Pylenkov compare to Gavrikov circa 2015? I am especially curious to hear about their IQ, but even in general I am curious about their skills. Both have a lot more KHL experience than Gavrikov by the time he was drafted, and I know the book on Galenyuk especially is quite comparable to that of Gavrikov, but I feel as though Gavrikov is going to have to be the baseline for them to earn a pick. Based on what I saw in the U20's, I was left on the fence with both of them.

Gavrikov was definitely better, he entered the 2015 draft as the WJC best defenseman. Galenyuk is interesting in terms of natural physical giftedness and improved skating, so I think somekind of the offensive production could be there later on too, but he still is a bit of error prone and can take a bad penalty from time to time, so I'm not high about his hockey IQ. With Pylenkov, it is a bit of other way: I don't see offensive potential, but he looked pretty reliable at D... but only in the second half of the season, as even back at the CAN/RUS Series I was heavily criticizing for positional errors, therfore it's not easy to make a judgment on which is his true form. But anyway, I think Gavrikov is just in a different tier.

3) For Skotnikov, I know the size is an issue and that you said he had some rebound control issues. The one thing going for him is this is a quite weak draft for goalies, so if teams really want a guy, they may be more willing to take a late round flyer on him than in a normal draft. My question is if it was not for Askarov playing ahead of him, would he have been given more international opportunities? Also, if it was not for size, would he have been viewed in a much more favourable light (i.e. top 75 pick), or would he still be a mid-late round goalie at best?

If Askarov wasn't so good, Skotnikov would've be a U18 NT full-time starter in 2018/19, so he would've made some more impression back then, as for this season, I don't think so, maybe could get a game at the 4nations in November, but that's all. As for the "if it was not for size", it's kind of a huge "if", but if we imagine that he is an inch or two taller, I think third or even late second round (if a draft is as weak at goalie depth as last year) would be a realistic expectation, imo.


A lot of stuff, but I hope I kind of answered your questions, but even if I didn't, feel free to ask more - I'll gladly continue our discussion. :)
 
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Caser

@RUSProspects
May 21, 2013
13,650
12,430
Riga/Yaroslavl
twitter.com
Is it normal only one RD #48. ? Some LD can play RD?

When I wrote RD, I meant RHD, I think here on hfboards it is pretty common to write that way. But yeah, due to a lack of righties a lot of LHDs play at the right-side too, it is pretty common in Russian hockey. From the list, pretty sure I've seen Mukhamadullin, Nikishin and Pylenkov at the right side too, maybe Kuznetsov and Steklov at the WJAC too, not easy to remember now.
 
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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
16,773
THat's a big one, but I certainly enjoy that kind of responses, thanks. :)



That's not an easy question, since, if we think of it that way, the hockey IQ is an umbrella term that covers a lot of stuff: creativity, reliability, vision, timing, decision making, character, consistency etc. For example, Likhachyov: he has always been creative and this season more-or-less consistent, but not sure if that would make him a high-IQ guy in my eyes. Still, if you would like me to try to group them somehow, I'll try, but I'm not sure it won't cause a confusion, I'll use my list though:

Aside from Zlodeyev, in the "great" category I'd have Askarov, Pashin, Beryozkin and, maybe, Alalykin and Chizhikov (that was probably unexpected to everyone, but I like what he does).

In the "good" I'd probably place Groshev, Trineyev, Sokolov, Kuznetsov, Tsyplakov, Sheshin, maybe Shashkov and Marushev.

In the "weak" group (actually I'd prefer to use "questionable", since labeling them as "weak" already at this point of their careers requires them to do something really dumb) I'd place Mukhamadullin, Tyutnev, Gutik, Likhachyov, Steklov, Galenyuk, Tyuvilin, Gordin, Akhtyamov, Didkovskiy.

As for others I'd say "average" would be appropriate, but again, those things should be viewed in details, this is a very approximate grouping, as for different players in the same group this hockey IQ evaluation might mean totally different things.



Zlodeyev's reason for the lack of offensive production is the WJAC - while he was on the middle-six line, it didn't exactly click, so only 1 A in 6 games (although I'm pretty sure one more assist was "stolen" from him by stats guys). In other tournaments he did better: 2G+1A in 4 games at the 5Nations, 1G+2A in 5 games at the Hlinka's.



Well, every player of the U18 NT could've had another opportunity to show what they got at the U18 WJC stage, particularly I think everyone wanted to see Ovchinnikov, but maybe Trineyev woud've benefited from that (as he wasn't there at the WJAC) and maybe even Agapov. As for guys like Beryozkin and other 2001 borns, they lost an opportunity to showcase themselves both at the 4 Nations and, what might be even more important, at the Sochi U20 camp, as there would be a lot of scouts there and previous experience shows that a lot of guys, who look good there, get selected. But again, maybe they would dissapoint us, we will never know now.



Gavrikov was definitely better, he entered the 2015 draft as the WJC best defenseman. Galenyuk is interesting in terms of natural physical giftedness and improved skating, so I think somekind of the offensive production could be there later on too, but he still is a bit of error prone and can take a bad penalty from time to time, so I'm not high about his hockey IQ. With Pylenkov, it is a bit of other way: I don't see offensive potential, but he looked pretty reliable at D... but only in the second half of the season, as even back at the CAN/RUS Series I was heavily criticizing for positional errors, therfore it's not easy to make a judgment on which is his true form. But anyway, I think Gavrikov is just in a different tier.



If Askarov wasn't so good, Skotnikov would've be a U18 NT full-time starter in 2018/19, so he would've made some more impression back then, as for this season, I don't think so, maybe could get a game at the 4nations in November, but that's all. As for the "if it was not for size", it's kind of a huge "if", but if we imagine that he is an inch or two taller, I think third or even late second round (if a draft is as weak at goalie depth as last year) would be a realistic expectation, imo.


A lot of stuff, but I hope I kind of answered your questions, but even if I didn't, feel free to ask more - I'll gladly continue our discussion. :)

Thank you for all of the work! :)

IQ is really tough for me because it can mean so many different things, especially for offensive players. Defensive IQ is a lot easier because it is pretty much positioning, awareness and decision making with the puck. So for me it is easier to evaluate defensive ability because if a defenseman is not positioned or thinking fast enough, they are getting burned by any kind of quality offensive player or constantly turning the puck over. For a forward, it may just be they are constantly chasing the puck but do not really break up plays or cause turnovers, or are not moving their feet at all and are just waiting for a defenseman to move the puck up to them. Watching the puck is also a thing that I often watch out for... If they are just watching the puck, then they are not doing the right thing.

Offense is a lot tougher in many aspects. There are certain guys who are really smart forecheckers or know where to be off the puck to generate opportunities, but may not be a playmaker. That does not mean they can't be a very effective player or utilize their skills extremely well. Then there are some guys who may be able to make a lot of things happen with the puck on their stick (creative, vision, etc.), but when the puck is not on their stick they are suddenly not much of a factor offensively. They don't know how to forecheck or put pressure on defensemen to get the puck back (which you should still be able to do even if you are small), or they don't know how to be in the right place to generate opportunities or maintain a forecheck. It could also be how they position their body to, for example, protect the puck. Strength does play a factor, but I have found that there are some small guys who can often outplay their size if they use are smart with how they position themselves.

As for the rest, I appreciate the insight. I think I will take Galenyuk and Pylenkov off my list and perhaps keep tabs on them in a few years as UFA's if they develop well enough. If they are not even in the Gavrikov tier, then their chances of making the NHL is not worth a pick. Also, given their upside, I think it worth the risk of having to compete with other teams to land their services through the UFA market. I have also taken Didkovsky off. I was willing to overlook rather mediocre international numbers because he apparently had an edge and some good overall skills, but questionable IQ kills it for me.

As for the others, I think I will just keep them off. That does not necessarily mean I do not think they will not be drafted, as I currently only have like 16 guys from Russia on my board and I know teams draft a lot more Russians than that, but unfortunately I think the lack of international exposure/success for some of these prospects is going to work against them. From my analysis, I have only identified Ilya Mikheyev as the only NHL skater drafted from a Russian league in recent memory who was neither a successful international player as a junior nor played as a pro (and looked like they belonged there) during their draft years. Every other Russian who made it (even the undrafted ones) were on the WJC squads or pros as young players (and quite often, it was both). However, in some cases it took the player an OA year or two to establish themselves internationally or as a pro though. As for goalies, every single one were strong WJC starters for Russia, so Skotnikov has too much working against him between that and the lack of size. Mifthakov is a better bet, but even his lack of size and inconsistency is a concern for me.

I still need to think a little bit more about guys like Chinakhov, Tyutnev, Likhachyov, Sokolov and Gogolev, and whether there is another guy on your list worth thinking about. I can see what you are saying about it being a weaker Russian year though. 2020 in general seems to be pretty overhyped.
 
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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
35,591
16,773
When I wrote RD, I meant RHD, I think here on hfboards it is pretty common to write that way. But yeah, due to a lack of righties a lot of LHDs play at the right-side too, it is pretty common in Russian hockey. From the list, pretty sure I've seen Mukhamadullin, Nikishin and Pylenkov at the right side too, maybe Kuznetsov and Steklov at the WJAC too, not easy to remember now.

Galenyuk played RD at the U20's. I think he was Romanov's partner, while Pylenkov was Zamula's RD.
 

Caser

@RUSProspects
May 21, 2013
13,650
12,430
Riga/Yaroslavl
twitter.com
Thank you for all of the work! :)

IQ is really tough for me because it can mean so many different things, especially for offensive players. Defensive IQ is a lot easier because it is pretty much positioning, awareness and decision making with the puck. So for me it is easier to evaluate defensive ability because if a defenseman is not positioned or thinking fast enough, they are getting burned by any kind of quality offensive player or constantly turning the puck over. For a forward, it may just be they are constantly chasing the puck but do not really break up plays or cause turnovers, or are not moving their feet at all and are just waiting for a defenseman to move the puck up to them. Watching the puck is also a thing that I often watch out for... If they are just watching the puck, then they are not doing the right thing.

Offense is a lot tougher in many aspects. There are certain guys who are really smart forecheckers or know where to be off the puck to generate opportunities, but may not be a playmaker. That does not mean they can't be a very effective player or utilize their skills extremely well. Then there are some guys who may be able to make a lot of things happen with the puck on their stick (creative, vision, etc.), but when the puck is not on their stick they are suddenly not much of a factor offensively. They don't know how to forecheck or put pressure on defensemen to get the puck back (which you should still be able to do even if you are small), or they don't know how to be in the right place to generate opportunities or maintain a forecheck. It could also be how they position their body to, for example, protect the puck. Strength does play a factor, but I have found that there are some small guys who can often outplay their size if they use are smart with how they position themselves.

But still it gets quite messy in terms of terminology, especially if we add something like "overall hockey IQ" as an ability to execute some basic coaches tactics and not to cause bad turnovers, penalties or any other errors. And even in case of the offensive part - if we look at Galimov, he does a lot of right things in the offensive zone from the coaches perspective, goes to the slot and to the front of the net, so can't really accuse him of poor offensive IQ, but on the other hand, he is a bit too predictable for my taste and not realy good at distributing the puck for a center, so technically it would make his hockey IQ "average", but labeling him as such doesn't really tell the story at all.

As for the rest, I appreciate the insight. I think I will take Galenyuk and Pylenkov off my list and perhaps keep tabs on them in a few years as UFA's if they develop well enough. If they are not even in the Gavrikov tier, then their chances of making the NHL is not worth a pick. Also, given their upside, I think it worth the risk of having to compete with other teams to land their services through the UFA market. I have also taken Didkovsky off. I was willing to overlook rather mediocre international numbers because he apparently had an edge and some good overall skills, but questionable IQ kills it for me.

"Even"? I mean, Gavrikov's tier is quite a high threshold to set, can't really think of many Russian Ds in the recent drafts, who would've passed that criteria. As for Didkovsky, I might be not too high on his overall hockey sense, but you have to give him credit for his ability to generate those shots, which also isn't really a dumb thing.


As for the others, I think I will just keep them off. That does not necessarily mean I do not think they will not be drafted, as I currently only have like 16 guys from Russia on my board and I know teams draft a lot more Russians than that, but unfortunately I think the lack of international exposure/success for some of these prospects is going to work against them.

Well, if the draft is only in October, there's a chance that there will be some other international exposure chances before that. And again, it's not like teams don't actively scout the MHL nowadays, in recent years there were enough drafted guys (usually in lower rounds though), who didn't really play anywhere aside from the MHL.

From my analysis, I have only identified Ilya Mikheyev as the only NHL skater drafted from a Russian league in recent memory who was neither a successful international player as a junior nor played as a pro (and looked like they belonged there) during their draft years.

Mikheyev wasn't drafted though.

Every other Russian who made it (even the undrafted ones) were on the WJC squads or pros as young players (and quite often, it was both). However, in some cases it took the player an OA year or two to establish themselves internationally or as a pro though.

Well, it is not a secret that the top talented prospects are usually identified already at a rather early age and are invited to junior NTs. To be honest, I'm not exactly getting your point here, as the majority of players on the list have an international experience of any kind (usually U18 or U20 NTs).

As for goalies, every single one were strong WJC starters for Russia, so Skotnikov has too much working against him between that and the lack of size. Mifthakov is a better bet, but even his lack of size and inconsistency is a concern for me.

I still need to think a little bit more about guys like Chinakhov, Tyutnev, Likhachyov, Sokolov and Gogolev, and whether there is another guy on your list worth thinking about. I can see what you are saying about it being a weaker Russian year though. 2020 in general seems to be pretty overhyped.

I'm not exactly sure if overhyped is the right word, I mean, aside from Askarov (who, imo, totally deserved it) is there really anyone with a lot of hype this year?

Galenyuk played RD at the U20's. I think he was Romanov's partner, while Pylenkov was Zamula's RD.

That's actually what I'm saying, I think basically any LHD on the list has experience at playing on the right side too.
 
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Brett44

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But still it gets quite messy in terms of terminology, especially if we add something like "overall hockey IQ" as an ability to execute some basic coaches tactics and not to cause bad turnovers, penalties or any other errors. And even in case of the offensive part - if we look at Galimov, he does a lot of right things in the offensive zone from the coaches perspective, goes to the slot and to the front of the net, so can't really accuse him of poor offensive IQ, but on the other hand, he is a bit too predictable for my taste and not realy good at distributing the puck for a center, so technically it would make his hockey IQ "average", but labeling him as such doesn't really tell the story at all.



"Even"? I mean, Gavrikov's tier is quite a high threshold to set, can't really think of many Russian Ds in the recent drafts, who would've passed that criteria. As for Didkovsky, I might be not too high on his overall hockey sense, but you have to give him credit for his ability to generate those shots, which also isn't really a dumb thing.




Well, if the draft is only in October, there's a chance that there will be some other international exposure chances before that. And again, it's not like teams don't actively scout the MHL nowadays, in recent years there were enough drafted guys (usually in lower rounds though), who didn't really play anywhere aside from the MHL.



Mikheyev wasn't drafted though.



Well, it is not a secret that the top talented prospects are usually identified already at a rather early age and are invited to junior NTs. To be honest, I'm not exactly getting your point here, as the majority of players on the list have an international experience of any kind (usually U18 or U20 NTs).



I'm not exactly sure if overhyped is the right word, I mean, aside from Askarov (who, imo, totally deserved it) is there really anyone with a lot of hype this year?



That's actually what I'm saying, I think basically any LHD on the list has experience at playing on the right side too.

Ok thank you . Because if Sakic like draft a russian player his bigger need is RHD. I think Avs need a shutdown or two-way RHD.
 
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SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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But still it gets quite messy in terms of terminology, especially if we add something like "overall hockey IQ" as an ability to execute some basic coaches tactics and not to cause bad turnovers, penalties or any other errors. And even in case of the offensive part - if we look at Galimov, he does a lot of right things in the offensive zone from the coaches perspective, goes to the slot and to the front of the net, so can't really accuse him of poor offensive IQ, but on the other hand, he is a bit too predictable for my taste and not realy good at distributing the puck for a center, so technically it would make his hockey IQ "average", but labeling him as such doesn't really tell the story at all.

That's fair. It's something I still need to work on defining more clearly, especially when it comes to offensive IQ.


"Even"? I mean, Gavrikov's tier is quite a high threshold to set, can't really think of many Russian Ds in the recent drafts, who would've passed that criteria. As for Didkovsky, I might be not too high on his overall hockey sense, but you have to give him credit for his ability to generate those shots, which also isn't really a dumb thing.

Well, if the draft is only in October, there's a chance that there will be some other international exposure chances before that. And again, it's not like teams don't actively scout the MHL nowadays, in recent years there were enough drafted guys (usually in lower rounds though), who didn't really play anywhere aside from the MHL.

Well, it is not a secret that the top talented prospects are usually identified already at a rather early age and are invited to junior NTs. To be honest, I'm not exactly getting your point here, as the majority of players on the list have an international experience of any kind (usually U18 or U20 NTs).

The thing is, there is a pretty high threshold for Russian defensemen (or players in general) to clear in order to make it to the NHL. According to eliteprospects.com, there were a total of 36 Russians in the NHL last year (however 50 played at least one game, so I assume they cut it off at a certain threshold). 7 goalies and around 30 skaters. That puts them 4th in terms of nationalities, right up there with Finland (35 players) but well behind Canada, USA and Sweden. The thing about Russia is that the vast majority of the players on that list are high quality NHLers. There are not too many guys who are 4th liners or bottom pairing quality. That is really how it goes for a lot of the European countries.

There are probably a bunch of Russian players who will be drafted who won't meet that threshold, and that does not mean they won't become good, NHL quality players. I am purposely setting the threshold for Russians (and other Europeans) quite high so that if they reach it, there is a really good chance of them becoming more than just 4th liners or bottom pairing guys so they are more likely to come/stick in the NHL. It's why I have far fewer Russians (or Europeans in general) on my board than get drafted every year. It's also why I try to look beyond just what they do in the MHL, because there are often guys who do really well in the MHL but then don't make it to North America at all.

I can guarantee that if most people looked at my draft board or where I rank certain guys, they would think I have no idea what I am talking about because it is often different than what you find on the internet.

Mikheyev wasn't drafted though.

I am looking for any kind of quality Russian talent that makes it to the NHL. Panarin and Bobrovski were not drafted either, but if I had a chance to draft a prospect who was projected to be as good as they've become in the NHL, I am drafting them.

I'm not exactly sure if overhyped is the right word, I mean, aside from Askarov (who, imo, totally deserved it) is there really anyone with a lot of hype this year?

I was referring to the entire draft class, not just Russians. There are people saying this one of the deepest draft classes, along with 2015, since 2003. I am saying that it is overhyped, and that it is likely not going to turn out anywhere near as good.
 

Caser

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The thing is, there is a pretty high threshold for Russian defensemen (or players in general) to clear in order to make it to the NHL. According to eliteprospects.com, there were a total of 36 Russians in the NHL last year (however 50 played at least one game, so I assume they cut it off at a certain threshold). 7 goalies and around 30 skaters. That puts them 4th in terms of nationalities, right up there with Finland (35 players) but well behind Canada, USA and Sweden. The thing about Russia is that the vast majority of the players on that list are high quality NHLers. There are not too many guys who are 4th liners or bottom pairing quality. That is really how it goes for a lot of the European countries.

Yes, but the reason for that is pretty simple - prevously they could make much more in the KHL and have a bigger role. Now the money part becomes somewhat less, as the salary cap is introduced in the KHL.

There are probably a bunch of Russian players who will be drafted who won't meet that threshold, and that does not mean they won't become good, NHL quality players. I am purposely setting the threshold for Russians (and other Europeans) quite high so that if they reach it, there is a really good chance of them becoming more than just 4th liners or bottom pairing guys so they are more likely to come/stick in the NHL. It's why I have far fewer Russians (or Europeans in general) on my board than get drafted every year. It's also why I try to look beyond just what they do in the MHL, because there are often guys who do really well in the MHL but then don't make it to North America at all.

I can guarantee that if most people looked at my draft board or where I rank certain guys, they would think I have no idea what I am talking about because it is often different than what you find on the internet.

The issue here is that if we're talking about the full draft, around the time we hit the 4th-5th rounds, all the Gavrikov-caliber players are gone, both European and non-European, so we will have to think what's next. Pretty logical solution would be looking for prospects, who don't look as surefire talents at this point, but got that special something that might take them to a higher level and if we apply this kind of approach, then I think it would be not very effective to limit the pool to just NA-based players, since it is not like there would be a lot of this type of prospects.
 

leafs4life94

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Jan 15, 2014
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I know he's Belarussian so I'm not sure how much insight you'll have, but do you have any thoughts on Vitali Pinchuk? Where would you rank him on your list?
 

Caser

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I know he's Belarussian so I'm not sure how much insight you'll have, but do you have any thoughts on Vitali Pinchuk? Where would you rank him on your list?

I think I'm not the right person to be asked about him, as the only time I have seen him was probably in the 2019 U18 WJC and I didn't take notes. Still, I'd certainly recommend to read Brock Otten's thoughts on him, as he has him ranked at 41 in the top OHL first-year eligible player list here: OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2020 NHL Entry Draft - Part 2: 31-50 Additionally, Brock himself is actively answering questions in this thread: Final Top 50 OHL Prospects for the 2020 NHL Draft
 
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Caser

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I just thought that all those names might not mean too much sense without trying to make some kind of a mapping to the draft stock just to show how it would look in my eyes:


1st round 1st half
Askarov

1st round 2nd half
Amirov

2nd round 1st half
Pashin
Kuznetsov

2nd round 2nd half
Gushchin
Khusnutdnov

3rd round 1st half
Ponomaryov
Groshev
Beryozkin

3rd round 2nd half
Nikishin
Mukhamadullin

4th round 1st half
Chinakhov
Zlodeyev

4th round 2nd half
Tyutnev
Alalykin
Ovchinnikov

5th round
Trineyev
Skotnikov
Galimov
Sokolov

6th-7th rounds
Tsyplakov
Galenyuk
Gogolev
Shashkov
Safonov
Steklov
Marushev


As for others in my list, while there are some interesting names too, I would think at least twice if I like them enough to spend a draft pick, but I can totally imagine that a lot of scouts will have a more favorable opinion towards some of them at the draft.
 
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SeaOfBlue

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Yes, but the reason for that is pretty simple - prevously they could make much more in the KHL and have a bigger role. Now the money part becomes somewhat less, as the salary cap is introduced in the KHL.



The issue here is that if we're talking about the full draft, around the time we hit the 4th-5th rounds, all the Gavrikov-caliber players are gone, both European and non-European, so we will have to think what's next. Pretty logical solution would be looking for prospects, who don't look as surefire talents at this point, but got that special something that might take them to a higher level and if we apply this kind of approach, then I think it would be not very effective to limit the pool to just NA-based players, since it is not like there would be a lot of this type of prospects.

I was not aware of the salary cap in the KHL, but even then if a Russian was good enough to be a top tier player in the KHL but only good enough to be a 4th liner in the NHL, would they not just stay home? Otherwise, why are more guys like Marchenko, Nesterov or Ozhiganov not sticking around in the NHL? All would have received some kind of offer to be bottom pairing or depth guys in the NHL but decided to head home. If guys like Galenyuk and Pylenkov are not Gavrikov level, then they are essentially starting to get into the mediocre bottom pairing/good depth guy tier of players who dont make a ton of money and the NHL does not keep many Russians who are in that tier.

In terms of forwards, look at guys like Soshnikov, Slepyshev or likely Prohorkin. All are were solid 4th line or depth options but went back to the KHL.

Gavrikov was a 6th round D+2 talent so it was not like he was seen as anything special at the time either. He turned into a solid 4/5 and could have a nice, long career in the NHL but even then he is on the lower end spectrum of Russian talent in the NHL. That is not to say there are not a ton of Russians who are lower quality but could still stick in the NHL but those guys typically decide to stay home. So NHL teams may decide to look at other Europeans or North Americans who look to have similar upside or profiles but are more likely/willing to play in the NHL even if they are only ending up as 4th liners or depth players (most teams do not take guys with bottom pairing or 4th line upside regardless of where they come from, unless they are going to be spectacular in those roles or have extremely high floors, but those prospects are very rare). I know salary probably has something to do with it, but that still means it is something to consider for teams.

Essentially I am saying that if there is a Russian who does not possess a ton of upside (I.e. at least Gavrikov or top 9 forward level), their chances of getting drafted are not as high because they won't likely choose to stay in the NHL if they are not at least that level. So really only the 15 or so best Russians in any given year would get drafted, but half of them will likely be taken high, and then the other half will be mid-late round picks will be guys who are more project picks like Tyutnev, Trineyev, Chinakov, Galimov, Sokolov, Nikishin, etc.
 

Caser

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I was not aware of the salary cap in the KHL, but even then if a Russian was good enough to be a top tier player in the KHL but only good enough to be a 4th liner in the NHL, would they not just stay home?

It depends on how to define top tier in the KHL, for me these are guys like Mikheyev and those are usually at least projecting to be better than 4th line in the NHL. In general if they don't feel they would be given a chance to prove themselves at all (like, in case other guys are injured) for something bigger than that then yes, they'd likely stay. Although there have been enough exceptions to that rule recently too.

Otherwise, why are more guys like Marchenko, Nesterov or Ozhiganov not sticking around in the NHL? All would have received some kind of offer to be bottom pairing or depth guys in the NHL but decided to head home.

Marchenko didn't have enough health I think, as most of his KHL time he wasn't too good either. Still I don't think that anyone can say that it wasn't a good pick for the Redwings. For Nesterov, when he left to the KHL noone was just interested in him in the NHL (apparently there's interest now though). Ozhiganov left because he failed, his signing was made at the wrong time, you just don't sign the guys, who aren't doing good in the KHL at least at that current moment, but the Leafs decided that they need to do it. Btw, possibly if they would've drafted him back in the days they woudn't need to rush him, since they'd have his rights.

If guys like Galenyuk and Pylenkov are not Gavrikov level, then they are essentially starting to get into the mediocre bottom pairing/good depth guy tier of players who dont make a ton of money and the NHL does not keep many Russians who are in that tier.

What do you mean by "NHL does not keep many Russians who are in that tier"? I think if they want to stay and their team is interested - they stay. Look at Lyubushkin and how much chances he gets in Arizona. As for ton of money, a Top4 D on a rich KHL team is making an equivalent (considering taxes I mean) of 1.3m USD in the NHL, I think even bottom-pairing Ds are usually making more in the NHL.

In terms of forwards, look at guys like Soshnikov, Slepyshev or likely Prohorkin. All are were solid 4th line or depth options but went back to the KHL.

Prokhokin doesn't actually belong in the conversation about less-talented guys, as if a player like him would be available this year, he would be a 1st round candidate. Still in the end he didn't have a proper toolbox for all these tools. But yeah, he is likely coming back now, and the reason is also simple: not like anyone needs him in the NHL much. For Soshnikov the answer is pretty simple too: concussions, pretty sure he would have an NHL career otherwise. As for Slepyshev, he didn't think he got a chance to develop himself there, but again, it's not like his upside was just bottom-six and also I highly doubt that many other Europeans would stay in the situation. Puljujarvi also left, although it's not like he is Russian.

Gavrikov was a 6th round D+2 talent so it was not like he was seen as anything special at the time either.

It was D+1 and also at that time he was already holding the best WJC D award while not scoring a single point there, quite special to me I think. Just for the record, guys like DeAngelo and Morrisey also played there. At the same draft Kaprizov was taken in 5th round and Gusev was taken in 7th couple of years before, so it's not like the exact position back in those days would mean much, even in terms of upside expectations.

He turned into a solid 4/5 and could have a nice, long career in the NHL but even then he is on the lower end spectrum of Russian talent in the NHL.

I think the expectaton was that Gavrikov's new deal will be at least around 3.5m and I can't call it "on the lower end spectrum", imo.

That is not to say there are not a ton of Russians who are lower quality but could still stick in the NHL but those guys typically decide to stay home.

I would like to look at examples here, as in general drafted guys at least try themselves in NA at some point.

So NHL teams may decide to look at other Europeans or North Americans who look to have similar upside or profiles but are more likely/willing to play in the NHL even if they are only ending up as 4th liners or depth players (most teams do not take guys with bottom pairing or 4th line upside regardless of where they come from, unless they are going to be spectacular in those roles or have extremely high floors, but those prospects are very rare). I know salary probably has something to do with it, but that still means it is something to consider for teams.

Again, are we talking about the upside or the risk? I mean, those are different things and should be separated. And I don't think Europeans are that keen to stay on the 4th line much more than Russians are nowadays.

Essentially I am saying that if there is a Russian who does not possess a ton of upside (I.e. at least Gavrikov or top 9 forward level), their chances of getting drafted are not as high because they won't likely choose to stay in the NHL if they are not at least that level. So really only the 15 or so best Russians in any given year would get drafted, but half of them will likely be taken high, and then the other half will be mid-late round picks will be guys who are more project picks like Tyutnev, Trineyev, Chinakov, Galimov, Sokolov, Nikishin, etc.

But as you said, "most teams do not take guys with bottom pairing or 4th line upside regardless of where they come from". But again, it's upside - it's a bit of a different thing, when I'm ranking guys there I look at the combination of upside and risks usually. So returning to the initial Galenyuk Vs. Gavrikov discussion, if we look at purely the upside, then Galenyuk might be on the same tier, since he is mobile and very physycally gifted, but Gavrikov was always very smart and smarts impact the risk here more than upside. So if we imagine that Galenyuk at some point progresses very well at that part, he can become a second pairing guy, just I'm not too high on that probability. Still there's also one tiny little detail on drafting KHL players - that you hold their rights forever, which means that you can try draft a guy like Galenyuk somewhere in 7th round and calmly wait until he eventally becomes something good and if he doesn't - oh welp, it is just a 7th round pick.

As for "So really only the 15 or so best Russians in any given year would get drafted", it has been a bit different in recent years.
 
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Caser

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May 21, 2013
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In case anyone here likes meaningless numbers, here's the track record of current NHL team GMs in terms of drafting Russian players (last 5 drafts since 2015, as I think the classic Russian factor ended then).

GM​
Current team​
# of drafts in charge since 2015​
total # of Russian players drafted​
# players drafted from Russian leagues​
Russians picked in 1st round​
Russian league players picked in 1st round​
Russians per draft​
Russian league players per draft​
Don WaddellCAR232101.501.00
Kyle DubasTOR231001.500.50
Joe SakicCOL575001.401.00
Steve YzermanDET555001.001.00
Julien BriseBoisTBL111001.001.00
Kelly McCrimmonVGK111001.001.00
Jarmo KekalainenCBJ554001.000.80
Chuck FletcherPHI442001.000.50
David PoileNSH552001.000.40
Doug ArmstrongSTL543110.800.60
Doug WilsonSJS542000.800.40
John ChaykaARZ432000.750.50
Jim BenningVAN533110.600.60
Marc BergevinMTL532100.600.40
Ken HollandEDM532100.600.40
Brian MacLellanWSH531210.600.20
Brad TrelivingCAL531000.600.20
Lou LamorielloNYI422000.500.50
Stan BowmanCHI522000.400.40
Don SweeneyBOS522000.400.40
Rob BlakeLAK311000.330.33
Jeff GortonNYR411110.250.25
Dale TallonFLA411110.250.25
Jim NillDAL511110.200.20
Kevin CheveldayoffWPG511000.200.20
Jim RutherfordPIT510000.200.00
Jason BotterillBUF300000.000.00
Pierre DorionOTT400000.000.00
Bob MurrayANA500000.000.00
Tom FitzgeraldNJD00000--
Bill GuerinMIN00000--
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

May, 26th: Sabres ownership representatives say that Botterill's job is safe.

May, 31st: I posted the table above that shows that Botterill has been a bit too shy of drafting Russians comparing to other GMs.

June, 16th: Buffalo Sabres have relieved Jason Botterill of his duties as General Manager (and also two of his assistants).


:eyeroll:



Upd.: and also they fired their staff in the AHL affiliate - obviously because they failed to work with Glotov. :)
Upd2: and also a lot of their amateur scouting staff, so you can't convince me there's a better theory on what's going on there than mine.
 
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ozo

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To change the subject I love how Caser's work gets more monumental with every season. This year covering already 70 prospects, will this be the year where NHL won't be able to find and draft a kid not mentioned in this thread? :D
 
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Caser

@RUSProspects
May 21, 2013
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To change the subject I love how Caser's work gets more monumental with every season. This year covering already 70 prospects, will this be the year where NHL won't be able to find and draft a kid not mentioned in this thread? :D

Hey, I liked the subject of my post setting the Sabres organization on fire. :D

Seriously though, pretty sure I did a Top 70 couple of years ago, I think I had Romanov at 60th or something that year. :) It was much more detailed that year too I think, since here I have basically just Top30-40 and some ranked names. Oh, and just remembered that last year I did it in a very similar way to this year actually.

As for NHL teams always finding their Ibragimovs, it's ok, the initial purpose of the annual threads like that was so that people could read some names, click some EP links and maybe ask less "Who??" questions after the draft. Top70 is a bit of an overkill for that purpose, pretty sure it would've been more like Top50 if the remaining part of the season's tournaments wouldn't be cancelled. Speaking of EP, they had Goryachev and Rashevsky pretty high in their recent rankings, so you can see I can't cover up even just popular rankings' names with my lists. :)
 

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