2020 NHL Draft Thread: Who knows how many more days until this year's hockey tryouts? - Part II

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AKL

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So we better get prepared to pick 16-20. We beat the Canucks 2-1 in the season series, and it would be so Minnesota for us to come out of this with the 18th pick and another mediocre second/third line tweener.
 

DemidovSaveUs

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Does anyone undertand how the draft lottery is supposed to work? There’s 2 separate lotteries?
 

AKL

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Does anyone undertand how the draft lottery is supposed to work? There’s 2 separate lotteries?

It sounds like the first phase will be the 7 teams that aren't in the play-in round and then some placeholder balls for teams A through H for the 8 teams eliminated from the play-in round. The first phase will proceed as normal, but if one of the 8-15 spots win one of the top three spots, it will remain as a placeholder until all 8 play-in losers are determined. So after phase 1 you could feasibly have a draft order like this:

1) Team D
2) Team A
3) Ottawa
4) Detroit
5) Ottawa
6) Los Angeles
7) Anaheim
8) New Jersey
9) Buffalo

Then, once all 8 play-in losers have been determined, those 8 teams are entered into a second lottery where all 8 teams have a 12.5% chance of winning those team D and A spots at the top of the draft.

The part I'm still not totally sure about is, Bettman mentioned that they would have the collective odds that the teams 8-15 would normally have, which is 24.5% at #1 overall, but I don't know how they would break it up. If they treat it as 15 teams, it's easy, but if they treat it as 1 team with a 24.5% chance, does that mean all 8 teams can only win one of the three lottery spots at most? Or, like any normal year, could you have multiple teams from 8-15 in the top three, like in my scenario above.
 
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Minnesnota

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Does anyone undertand how the draft lottery is supposed to work? There’s 2 separate lotteries?
Phase 1 is a normal draft lottery. Picks 8-15 are "blank" picks. If one of those "blank" picks wins a lottery pick, then Phase 2 happens - of which the order is determined by the teams are ranked in inverse order of their points percentage.

So if "blank" pick Team A, or pick #8, wins the lottery, then whichever team that's eliminated in the qualifying round that has the worst points percentage by inverse order would be Team A, or get pick #8.

At least that's how I understand it. Idk if my explanation is all that clear.
 

AKL

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Phase 1 is a normal draft lottery. Picks 8-15 are "blank" picks. If one of those "blank" picks wins a lottery pick, then Phase 2 happens - of which the order is determined by the teams are ranked in inverse order of their points percentage.

So if "blank" pick Team A, or pick #8, wins the lottery, then whichever team that's eliminated in the qualifying round that has the worst points percentage by inverse order would be Team A, or get pick #8.

At least that's how I understand it. Idk if my explanation is all that clear.

Then where do the 12.5% odds for each team in Phase 2 come in, if the spot is already determined?
 

Minnesnota

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Then where do the 12.5% odds for each team in Phase 2 come in, if the spot is already determined?
It looks like the NHL.com article that explained it all has been altered to remove a critical section of what my post talked about, so maybe NHL.com had it f***ed up. Based on what I saw watching the announcement, each qualifying team should have a 12.5% chance at the lottery, assuming one of those blank balls falls in the top 3.
 

2Pair

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AKL is correct. Phase 1 is normal lottery involving 15 teams. Phase 2 only happens if one of the 8 "placeholders" wins one of the 3 lotteries. If Phase 2 is actually needed, all 8 Qualifying round losers would have equal chance to win that pick.
 

thestonedkoala

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I think you're wrong on this. Pens would keep their pick this year if they lose to MTL.

So we better get prepared to pick 16-20. We beat the Canucks 2-1 in the season series, and it would be so Minnesota for us to come out of this with the 18th pick and another mediocre second/third line tweener.

Where does it say that the play-ins aren't the playoffs?
 
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AKL

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It looks like the NHL.com article that explained it all has been altered to remove a critical section of what my post talked about, so maybe NHL.com had it f***ed up. Based on what I saw watching the announcement, each qualifying team should have a 12.5% chance at the lottery, assuming one of those blank balls falls in the top 3.

So, the part I'm looking at is that Bettman said each of the 8 play-in losers has an equal 3% chance at first overall. The math on that is that 12.5% (each play-in losers supposed odds) of 24.5%(the collective odds for teams 8-15 in a normal year) is 3.0625%.

If you make them Teams A through H based on p%, then you have to make that distinction on the balls, therefore each team can't have the same 3% chance.

If you treat them as one team for the sake of phase 1, and give the TBD "team" a 24.5% chance at first overall, then you have to have a lottery again to determine which teams win those TBD spots. It also messes with the odds a lot after that, because where you would normally remove those balls from the pool after the team is picked, you can't do that here.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, I'm sure the NHL league office has thought it all through, but they haven't made it entirely clear still.
 
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MuckOG

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According to 2Pair, this is all wrong. You guys are wrong.

Where does it say that the play-ins aren't the playoffs?

Lou Nanne was just on KFAN talking about this. If the Pens lose to the Canadians, the Pens keep their 1st round pick for this year.
 

AKL

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AKL is correct. Phase 1 is normal lottery involving 15 teams. Phase 2 only happens if one of the 8 "placeholders" wins one of the 3 lotteries. If Phase 2 is actually needed, all 8 Qualifying round losers would have equal chance to win that pick.

Okay, so they have Teams A through H labeled on the balls in that initial lottery, and with normal odds that teams 8th through 15th would have, but if team H, the 15th place team wins, p% doesn't matter, it just goes straight to an even lottery among those 8 teams. Got it.
 

2Pair

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Okay, so they have Teams A through H labeled on the balls in that initial lottery, and with normal odds that teams 8th through 15th would have, but if team H, the 15th place team wins, p% doesn't matter, it just goes straight to an even lottery among those 8 teams. Got it.
That's how I understand it. :dunno:

Sure seems like they're trying to make everything as hard as possible at every possible turn.
 
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AKL

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That's how I understand it. :dunno:

Sure seems like they're trying to make everything as hard as possible at every possible turn.

So given that it's probably very likely that teams 8-15 win at least one of the three spots, and the Wild would have a 12.5% chance to win that if eliminated, this could still be our best chance to get a top 3 pick in quite a while, without finishing bottom 3 ourselves.
 

2Pair

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So, he's probably wrong.

The closest thing here is LeBrun:



Saying that it is not actual playoffs, but this just creates a lot of headaches about these 'special' type of games.

The NHL today said that the "qualifying round" will not be considered the playoffs. That's why Pittsburgh's pick will not transfer to the Wild if the Pens lose to the Habs.
 

thestonedkoala

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The NHL today said that the "qualifying round" will not be considered the playoffs. That's why Pittsburgh's pick will not transfer to the Wild if the Pens lose to the Habs.

LeBrun has been wrong before.

What are they going to count stats for? Are they going to all get asterisks?
 

MuckOG

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Russo confirmed it in his latest article in The Atlantic. If the Habs knock out the Pens, the pick will be deferred to 2021.
 

AKL

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That's how I understood it too. The order of 1-15 would be based on p%, except for the lottery winners. If an 8-15 team won, that team would be determined by a second lottery, while the rest of spots 8-15 would still be p%.
 
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2Pair

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From what I understand the Wild can end up with any pick in the draft outside of #'s 4,5,6,7,15
 
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AKL

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From what I understand the Wild can end up with any pick in the draft outside of #'s 4,5,6,7

Yes, that’s correct.

And even if we lose our play-in, we're very likely to be picking later than 11th again.
 
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