Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft Thread: Part III - June 26th Lottery Confirmed by League

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lilidk

Registered User
Mar 4, 2008
9,592
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I expect dominated game from Stutzle. He was good , but not what I expected. Peterka and Reichel look very good for early second round
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
17,008
17,991
Having bad owners is great for the other owners, they need a few of these guys to get their teeth kicked in every year...

Oh yeah the Ford Family..... We have one in Detroit sports scene. :cry:

Tom Gores hasn't been stellar for the Pistons, either.
Also, I'm a bit worried that Chris Ilitch is less concerned with winning cups than his dad was. What if he's the kind of guy who is more concerned with the business bottom line than anything and we languish in mediocrity for a couple decades because it's profitable enough?
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,078
Tampere, Finland
Tom Gores hasn't been stellar for the Pistons, either.
Also, I'm a bit worried that Chris Ilitch is less concerned with winning cups than his dad was. What if he's the kind of guy who is more concerned with the business bottom line than anything and we languish in mediocrity for a couple decades because it's profitable enough?

Quite sure he is just enough smart (to listen Yzerman), that rebuild-phase is done patiently, and after that he could go all-aggressive like his dad.

On early days there was numerous loopholes to look for (Sovjet Union and pure money), like Mike Ilitch did. Now it's pretty much even field.

Cap is so big thing. Don't think the owner can do nothing on player side anymore, but paying for Management and Coaching better, outside cap. Make Red Wings the best workplace just hiring the best front-office. Treat the people better than anywhere and pay more. So people like to come. They already did quite a change, almost 50% of people are new. So every brain from the good old guard has some new brains giving ideas for them. Results will be seen soon.
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
9,470
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Tom Gores hasn't been stellar for the Pistons, either.
Also, I'm a bit worried that Chris Ilitch is less concerned with winning cups than his dad was. What if he's the kind of guy who is more concerned with the business bottom line than anything and we languish in mediocrity for a couple decades because it's profitable enough?

He is trying to balance out both the Tigers and Red Wings after his dad went on a spending spree. Trying to win a World Series while simultaneously maintaining the best playoff streak of the modern sports era is not a cheap endeavor. Mike spent with his heart, and Chris for a short time has to spend with his brain. As bad deals fall off the deck, and he can position himself well to spend, I fully expect him to do so, in a calculated fashion.

The fact that Mike Ilitch pretty evidently forced management's hand to give out deals to Prince Fielder and Jordan Zimmerman, or Frans Nielsen and Mike Green, ultimately hurt the long term health of the teams, and his spending strategy abandoned the analytics side of things where you can really isolate value added and tie it to dollar value of contracts in the MLB, or % of cap hit in the NHL. I'm not saying I expect him to turn Avila and Yzerman into Billy Beane, but I do think there will be a more pragmatic approach that tries to avoid getting burned a la the names above, or Abdelkader, or Ericsson, or Datsyuk, or Cabrera.

And...there is the omnipresent chance that as the Tigers look to turn the corner, their value may increase and Dan Gilbert may make his intentions of owning a Detroit based franchise known again. I think baseball is the place for Gilbert, as I don't think he's going to tip toe around when it comes to spending power.
 
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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
Craig Button just sold me on Carter Savoie all over again... can we have this draft so I can stop changing my mind?
 

Bench

3 is a good start
Aug 14, 2011
21,202
14,898
crease
Craig Button just sold me on Carter Savoie all over again... can we have this draft so I can stop changing my mind?

Pictured: Frk It reviewing his draft board for the next 3 months.

EWuV-JqWsAAQ7pO.jpg
 
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jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
10,851
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We can just trade for them in a few years when Ottawa doesn’t wanna pay them.
To Ottawa: Regular access to Olympia Entertainment facilities and Hot 'N Ready Pizza for life.*

To Detroit: Rights to the Ottawa Senators as official developmental team for the Detroit Red Wings.


* To be paid as one Hot 'N Ready per day for 50 years, or the equivalent in RealGud(TM) players with HOF locker room presence and legendary panache.
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
17,008
17,991
To Ottawa: Regular access to Olympia Entertainment facilities and Hot 'N Ready Pizza for life.*

To Detroit: Rights to the Ottawa Senators as official developmental team for the Detroit Red Wings.


* To be paid as one Hot 'N Ready per day for 50 years, or the equivalent in RealGud(TM) players with HOF locker room presence and legendary panache.

I think to even things out we'd have to trade them Dan Cleary's left over grit and character.
 

DatsyukToZetterberg

Alligator!
Apr 3, 2011
5,549
738
Island of Tortuga
So, over the last month or so I've created a very rudimentary prospect evaluation tool based on the data from pick224. The model only looks at first time eligible players and works by assigning a value to the prospect by comparing the players production to historical values for the league that they played in. Depending on a players production they were given an aggregated rank that could range between 3 & 250, 3 being a top 3 rate of production and 250 meaning undrafted. I think the model would be best used after the 1st round when it becomes more difficult to differentiate between players, though it is also pretty good at telling us who we should avoid as well.

The CHL leagues have the most data and are the ones in which I'm the most confident in the results, as well there were no professional leagues used so that means players in the DEL, SHL, Liiga, etc. would not be included. I redid the 2010-2019 drafts with my model selecting for the Red Wings and I have to say that I'm quite happy with the results, enough that I'm willing to post the 2020 list. There are still some issues, I think the model overvalues offensive defenceman a little bit too much and Russian dmen are just weird, but this is something that can be corrected with a scouts input if it was to really be implemented.

Anyways, enough rambling this is the models list:

Tier NAME
1 Marco Rossi
1 Quinton Byfield
1 Cole Perfetti
1 Seth Jarvis
1 Alexis Lafreniere
1 Anton Johannesson
-------------
2 William Villeneuve
2 Jeremie Poirier
2 Jamie Drysdale
----------------
3 Zion Nybeck
3 Connor Zary
3 Tomi Niku
3 Shakir Mukhamadullin
3 Rodion Amirov
3 Emil Heineman
3 Veeti Miettinen
3 Tristen Robins
3 Jack Quinn
3 Emil Andrae
3 Sam Colangelo
---------------
4 Sergei Safin-Tregubov
4 Joni Jurmo
4 Jacob Perreault
4 Mavrik Bourque
4 Justin Sourdif
4 Martin Chromiak
4 Pavel Novak
4 Jack Finley
4 Tyson Foerster
4 Ozzy Wiesblatt
4 Jake Neighbours
4 Lukas Cormier
4 Dmitry Ovchinnikov
---------------
5 Tyler Tullio
5 Ridly Greig
5 Daniel Torgersson
5 Dawson Mercer
5 Maxim Beryozkin
5 Jacob Dion
5 Alec Belanger
5 Luke Evangelista
5 Kasper Puutio
5 James Hardie
5 Brandon Coe
5 Donovan Sebrango
5 Jan Mysak
5 Rory Kerins
5 Connor McClennon
5 Sean Farrell
5 Daniil Gushchin
5 Braden Schneider
5 Hugo Styf
5 Ryan Francis
5 Alexander Pashin
5 Maxim Nevolin
5 Marat Khusnutdinov
5 Kasper Simontaival
5 Miguel Tourigny
5 Daniil L. Zaitsev
5 Samuel Knazko
5 Helge Grans
5 Kaiden Guhle
5 Evan Vierling
5 Jacob Truscott
5 Zayde Wisdom
5 Cross Hanas
5 Oskar Magnusson
5 William Dufour
5 Danil Aimurzin
----------------
6 Mitchell Miller
6 Jake Sanderson
6 Brendan Brisson
6 Nikita Yefremov
6 Ryan O'Rourke
6 Isaak Phillips
6 Ryker Evans
6 Kyle Crnkovic
6 Lukas Svejkovsky
6 Hendrix Lapierre
6 Reid Valade
6 Colby Ambrosio
------------------
7 Jack Thompson
7 Eamon Powell
7 Jaromir Pytlik
7 Hayden Fowler
7 Thomas Bordeleau
7 Carson Bantle
7 Oscar Johnsson
7 Brady Burns
7 Bogdan Trineyev
7 Thimo Nickl
7 Hannes Nordstrom
7 Ivan Zinchenko

One thing to note was that the final player ranking tier ended at a expected pick of 104. In the period I used for testing just 8% of players selected with a value of 104 or greater became NHLers. So, while there are some interesting prospects outside of the range, I'd probably let another team select them in the first 90 picks.
 
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