Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft Thread: Part Deux

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

I think Rossi is a player higher on places like this website than by actual scouts. But that's just my personal opinion. People here don't really factor in risk appropriately, because their jobs are not the ones on the line.

Sure, but those risk adverse selections are how players like Nylander & Ehlers fall and someone like Virtanen or Fleury get selected ahead of them. I think there's a large misunderstand of what is and isn't a risky pick and this approach to risk is what allows good players to fall in the draft. I do think you're correct though, NHL GMs are less willing to take risks at the top of draft; if you go off the board and it fails that's on you, but if the pick doesn't work out it's looked at as more favorable and is chalked up to bad luck. I think Yzerman has shown that he doesn't care about popular opinion, so I'm not concerned about the team going the risk adverse route.

As for the 2020 draft, does Rossi have more risk attached to him than anyone else that isn't Byfield or Lafreniere, I would argue no. I think that entire 2nd/3rd tier has a level of risk that is quite similar across the board and one's preference for a player can impact there opinion of that risk. Raymond, Stutzle, Drysdale, Holtz, Perfetti, and Lundell all have questions that would give me pause before taking them at 3 or 4; however, all of them have an argument for a pick in that area. My personal opinion is that Raymond, Stutzle, and Rossi are all of the same quality and any order of them from 3-5 is fine and I'd be more than happy to draft any of them.

 

[Frk It]

As for the 2020 draft, does Rossi have more risk attached to him than anyone else that isn't Byfield or Lafreniere, I would argue no

Yeah, so this is where I disagree with the people that say Rossi is a top 5 guy. I understand the upside argument, but for me he carries more risk than most others in the top 10.

I mean Stutzle is 6 foot and an elite skater. There's no way they carry the same risk. Drysdale is 5'11" and an elite skater. Again, no way they carry the same risk. If you want to say Rossi and Raymond/Perfetti carry similar risks, I could go for that maybe.

I suppose everyone is allowed to have a leap of faith guy. For me this year, that is Raymond. But even for me at times, I have a hard time putting ahead of Stutzle/Drysdale, because I do think those guys are objectively less risky.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I think Rossi is a player higher on places like this website than by actual scouts. But that's just my personal opinion. People here don't really factor in risk appropriately, because their jobs are not the ones on the line.

There are a few scouts that like him a lot to be sure, but this is generally what I have heard. Though I do know someone throwing out Point in terms of him. I just don't see that caliber of skater.

 

[Frk It]

There are a few scouts that like him a lot to be sure, but this is generally what I have heard. Though I do know someone throwing out Point in terms of him. I just don't see that caliber of skater.

Yeah, I guess the other thing is, we are probably looking at him being 19 when the draft rolls around. With Raymond, he looks physically immature still, I could see him growing an inch or two and adding to his skating. Not sure Rossi has as much room to advance physically?

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

I mean Stutzle is 6 foot and an elite skater. There's no way they carry the same risk. Drysdale is 5'11" and an elite skater. Again, no way they carry the same risk. If you want to say Rossi and Raymond/Perfetti carry similar risks, I could go for that maybe.

That's fair and I think it's fine for us to have differing opinions, I think the back an forth discussion is what makes this fun. I don't think height is all that important anymore, within reason, and there's more to risk than just height and skating. For me, Rossi's strong lower half and willingness to go to the dirty areas of the ice helps mitigate the size concerns and while he isn't an elite skater I think it is still in the good category, more awkward than anything. The other thing that helps ease my mind is he is almost a lock to be a center at the NHL level, he is an elite FO guy and he's already an elite two-way player at the CHL level.

I think if you focus on the negatives of any player at the top of the draft you can come away with a reason to claim they're risky than another. For example, Stutzle has the question mark of if he'll be a C at the NHL level, I think he will be given he's played it at the Junior level, but it is still not a certainty he will be one at the NHL level. I also have some concerns about how he sometimes forces plays that aren't there, but that's something that he'll surely improve upon as he ages. Drysdale is a defenceman, so in terms of drafting he's already more of a risk than either Rossi, Raymond, or Stutzle; defenceman come with inherently more risk than forwards imo. Drysdale is an excellent skater, but is he as dynamic as a Makar or Hughes or is he more of a Cam Fowler type?

I suppose everyone is allowed to have a leap of faith guy. For me this year, that is Raymond. But even for me at times, I have a hard time putting ahead of Stutzle/Drysdale, because I do think those guys are objectively less risky.

I think defining risk is an entirely subjective thing so it's hard to be objective about it. There's no real set standard for what constitutes a risky selection, especially as the NHL has moved towards a higher pace and higher skill game. You could argue that not selecting the most skilled or player with the best hockey IQ is a risk in itself. We've seen the average draft pick getting shorter and smaller over the past decade and I think that shows an increasing tolerance in risk for smaller players.

 

[Frk It]

I think defining risk is an entirely subjective thing so it's hard to be objective about it. There's no real set standard for what constitutes a risky selection, especially as the NHL has moved towards a higher pace and higher skill game. You could argue that not selecting the most skilled or player with the best hockey IQ is a risk in itself. We've seen the average draft pick getting shorter and smaller over the past decade and I think that shows an increasing tolerance in risk for smaller players.

Do you think that Rossi is more skilled than Raymond and Stutzle? I can see an argument he is the best passer, or has the best vision among those 3, but not sure I would say he is the most skilled. What do you think?

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Do you think that Rossi is more skilled than Raymond and Stutzle? I can see an argument he is the best passer, or has the best vision among those 3, but not sure I would say he is the most skilled. What do you think?

Gun to my head I think Stutzle is the flashiest and has the most "raw skill", Raymond would likely be 2nd, and Rossi 3rd. If we include playmaking, IQ, shot, and vision I think there's very little separating the 3. I don't really think I could confidently say that there is a big enough gap between them to declare any of them more skilled than the other, unless we are talking about "raw skill". All 3 play different games, but I think on the whole they project to have similar impacts at the NHL level.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Now also on Eliteprospects transfer rumours...

Rossi to Europe for 2021 season.

Yeah there''s talk that he's probably going to be playing in the Swiss League next fall.

 

[Killerjas]

He has nothing to learn in the juniors, should go to Switzerland, maybe the DEL or Liiga/SHL

 

[Hen Kolland]

Do you think that Rossi is more skilled than Raymond and Stutzle? I can see an argument he is the best passer, or has the best vision among those 3, but not sure I would say he is the most skilled. What do you think?

How do you define “skilled” in this scenario? I think it rules out physical attributes and athletic ability and gets down to the true soft skills of hockey. Puck handling, passing, shot, puck protection, and game sense. Particularly on the game sense, it’s more so positioning, execution (success probability of the decisions), risk analysis on the ice.

I think there’s a debate that can be had for each three of the players in this discussion, and honestly you could lump in Holtz and Perfetti as well if you want to get into this deep of a discussion. Identifying who the best “hockey player” is and layering in physical and athletic traits and expectations would probably go a long way.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Yeah there''s talk that he's probably going to be playing in the Swiss League next fall.

He has nothing to learn in the juniors, should go to Switzerland, maybe the DEL or Liiga/SHL

I know Rossi himself has said he believes he is ready to jump into the NHL, and if the team that drafts him decides that’s not the best choice, he would plan on playing in Europe if given the choice. Now if I’m Yzerman & Co. I would have the same conversations with Rossi and his team that I had with Mo Seider and his team. Having the player in Grand Rapids would be immensely more favorable for the Wings than playing in Switzerland. The proximity to Detroit is much more manageable, keep a little more control and hands on in his development.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

How do you define “skilled” in this scenario? I think it rules out physical attributes and athletic ability and gets down to the true soft skills of hockey. Puck handling, passing, shot, puck protection, and game sense. Particularly on the game sense, it’s more so positioning, execution (success probability of the decisions), risk analysis on the ice.

I think there’s a debate that can be had for each three of the players in this discussion, and honestly you could lump in Holtz and Perfetti as well if you want to get into this deep of a discussion. Identifying who the best “hockey player” is and layering in physical and athletic traits and expectations would probably go a long way.

For me this is one of the hardest things to explain. However, there is very much a fluidity to skill for me. How often can they repeat something and how controlled.

I don't want to speak for @Frk It but certainly for me this is a huge factor in terms of Raymond. He has Pasta esk fluidity. It isn't just the moves it is the ease he controls them with. But he is the kind of winger that controls tempo which are generally the ones I like best.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I know Rossi himself has said he believes he is ready to jump into the NHL, and if the team that drafts him decides that’s not the best choice, he would plan on playing in Europe if given the choice. Now if I’m Yzerman & Co. I would have the same conversations with Rossi and his team that I had with Mo Seider and his team. Having the player in Grand Rapids would be immensely more favorable for the Wings than playing in Switzerland. The proximity to Detroit is much more manageable, keep a little more control and hands on in his development.

Correct the Europe deal would only be if he doesn't make it to the NHL this season. And then there was talk that he might play in the Swiss League if that happens

 

[Marky9er]

Lafreniere

Byfield
Stutzle

Raymond
Drysdale
Rossi

Perfetti

Guys I hope fall to 32 LOL

 

[newfy]

How do you define “skilled” in this scenario? I think it rules out physical attributes and athletic ability and gets down to the true soft skills of hockey. Puck handling, passing, shot, puck protection, and game sense. Particularly on the game sense, it’s more so positioning, execution (success probability of the decisions), risk analysis on the ice.

I think there’s a debate that can be had for each three of the players in this discussion, and honestly you could lump in Holtz and Perfetti as well if you want to get into this deep of a discussion. Identifying who the best “hockey player” is and layering in physical and athletic traits and expectations would probably go a long way.

Yeah but then when you talk about Stutzle you also have to consider how his hands are at top speed. Hes got that McDavid/Barzal thing going for him where his hands keep up with his feet at top speed and hes got elite top speed. Youre right about layering

 

[newfy]

How do you define “skilled” in this scenario? I think it rules out physical attributes and athletic ability and gets down to the true soft skills of hockey. Puck handling, passing, shot, puck protection, and game sense. Particularly on the game sense, it’s more so positioning, execution (success probability of the decisions), risk analysis on the ice.

I think there’s a debate that can be had for each three of the players in this discussion, and honestly you could lump in Holtz and Perfetti as well if you want to get into this deep of a discussion. Identifying who the best “hockey player” is and layering in physical and athletic traits and expectations would probably go a long way.

Yeah but then when you talk about Stutzle you also have to consider how his hands are at top speed. Hes got that McDavid/Barzal thing going for him where his hands keep up with his feet at top speed and hes got elite top speed. Youre right about layering

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

On another topic, how does one feel about the goalies in this years draft? I feel like this is an above average year for them, but I haven't seen many goalie rankings so I'm really not sure.

I think if we could snag one of the fallers Joel Blomqvist, Artur Akhtyamov, Dylan Garand, Nick Malik, or Drew Commesso we'd have gotten a decent goalie prospect.

I also know he isn't a draft eligible prospect, but I'd like to see us sign Alexei Melnichuk. He's been great as a starter at every level, including the VHL this year; he had great numbers as the backup for SKA St. Petersburg, and he put on a show in the VHL playoffs. He's a little below average size wise for a goalie, but I think that his numbers indicate he could be worth a flier. If nothing else he can be someone that can be the #1 for the Griffins next year.

 

[Killerjas]

On another topic, how does one feel about the goalies in this years draft? I feel like this is an above average year for them, but I haven't seen many goalie rankings so I'm really not sure.

I think if we could snag one of the fallers Joel Blomqvist, Artur Akhtyamov, Dylan Garand, Nick Malik, or Drew Commesso we'd have gotten a decent goalie prospect.

I also know he isn't a draft eligible prospect, but I'd like to see us sign Alexei Melnichuk. He's been great as a starter at every level, including the VHL this year; he had great numbers as the backup for SKA St. Petersburg, and he put on a show in the VHL playoffs. He's a little below average size wise for a goalie, but I think that his numbers indicate he could be worth a flier. If nothing else he can be someone that can be the #1 for the Griffins next year.

Some great goalies are available, but there is 0 hype for them, apart from Askarov ofcourse.

I got Blomqvist and Commesso as 3rd round picks, Daws as a 4th round pick because he is an overager and Garand, Malik and Bednar as 5 to 7 round picks. I like Akhtyamov but I believe he will go undrafted this year.

Some goalies I have ranked in no particular order are:

1. Askarov
2. Blomqvist
3. Commesso
4. Daws
5. Malik
6. Bednar
7. Garand
8. Levi
9. Clang
10. Tynan
11. Akhtyamov

 

[Marky9er]

Some great goalies are available, but there is 0 hype for them, apart from Askarov ofcourse.

I got Blomqvist and Commesso as 3rd round picks, Daws as a 4th round pick because he is an overager and Garand, Malik and Bednar as 5 to 7 round picks. I like Akhtyamov but I believe he will go undrafted this year. Or....maybe it's Brett Brochu. That kid set a record for wins as a rookie. He's only 5'11" but doesn't turn 18 until sep 9. He could reach 6'. Thinking about that record....it wasn't even a full season. Is Regula that good?

Some goalies I have ranked in no particular order are:

1. Askarov
2. Blomqvist
3. Commesso
4. Daws
5. Malik
6. Bednar
7. Garand
8. Levi
9. Clang
10. Tynan
11. Akhtyamov

I don't know if Tynan gets drafted. Don't think he ever came back from that nasty injury. He will get another look next year if passed over.

I think one guy worth a flyer is Garin Bjorklund. Has good size and was a top pick in WHL. Stats most of the year were close to the #1 on his team Sogaard(high NHL pick). Basically if there's a goalie being slept on, I have a feeling it could be him.

 

[Marky9er]

Double. Post.

 

[Red Stanley]

Sure, but those risk adverse selections are how players like Nylander & Ehlers fall and someone like Virtanen or Fleury get selected ahead of them. I think there's a large misunderstand of what is and isn't a risky pick and this approach to risk is what allows good players to fall in the draft. I do think you're correct though, NHL GMs are less willing to take risks at the top of draft; if you go off the board and it fails that's on you, but if the pick doesn't work out it's looked at as more favorable and is chalked up to bad luck. I think Yzerman has shown that he doesn't care about popular opinion, so I'm not concerned about the team going the risk adverse route.

As for the 2020 draft, does Rossi have more risk attached to him than anyone else that isn't Byfield or Lafreniere, I would argue no. I think that entire 2nd/3rd tier has a level of risk that is quite similar across the board and one's preference for a player can impact there opinion of that risk. Raymond, Stutzle, Drysdale, Holtz, Perfetti, and Lundell all have questions that would give me pause before taking them at 3 or 4; however, all of them have an argument for a pick in that area. My personal opinion is that Raymond, Stutzle, and Rossi are all of the same quality and any order of them from 3-5 is fine and I'd be more than happy to draft any of them.

Could be less about him making a "risky" pick per se and more about him having different criteria for evaluating risk. Combine that with my belief that he 100% does not want to f*** around with the top pick in this draft and in all probability it drops guys like Raymond (who appears to be nowhere near ready for the NA pro game) out of the picture. The more I watch Stutzle play, the more I believe he's #2 on Yzerman's list. He's got high-end skill, speed, smarts, AND is hyper competitive/hard working. Wouldn't surprise me if our board looks like this:
1. Laf
2. Stutzle
3. Byfield
4. Drysdale

Drysdale makes sense at 4. From a timeline perspective, he synchs up with Seider. He happens to fill a high-priority positional need (though we have lots of those right now). He's also not lacking in potential compared to other options. Overall, I'll be happy with one of a scoring line center in particular, a playmaking forward in general, or a dynamic defenseman.

 

[HoweFan]

Henkka’s list a page or so back seems reasonable. Here’s my draft 1- LaFreniere 32- Bordeleau 50-Klevin 55- O’Rourke 63- Blomqvist 65- Peterson. I don’t think O’Rourke will really be there at 55 but whatever. Players I missed out on we’re Wallinder, Reichel, and Ryan Francis

 

[Frk It]

How do you define “skilled” in this scenario? I think it rules out physical attributes and athletic ability and gets down to the true soft skills of hockey. Puck handling, passing, shot, puck protection, and game sense. Particularly on the game sense, it’s more so positioning, execution (success probability of the decisions), risk analysis on the ice.

Yeah, that is similar to what I was thinking. Playmaking + hands + shooting ability. I think Raymond excels at those 3 things better than anyone else after that top tier of Lafreniere/Byfield. That is why he is my #3 player in this draft, and probably why you like him as well. I think the things he needs to improve he will over time (with continued physical development). But he has a pretty rare/special package of offensive abilities IMO, and if not for limited minutes, I think it would have been more on display.

For me this is one of the hardest things to explain. However, there is very much a fluidity to skill for me. How often can they repeat something and how controlled.

I don't want to speak for @Frk It but certainly for me this is a huge factor in terms of Raymond. He has Pasta esk fluidity. It isn't just the moves it is the ease he controls them with. But he is the kind of winger that controls tempo which are generally the ones I like best.

Yeah, that is pretty much how I see it. He has a dynamic element to his game similar to what Pasta had.

 

[Christien]

Button's March rankings just came out:

Craig's List: Alexis Lafreniere solidifies status as hockey's top prospect - TSN.ca

His top 10
Lafreniere
Stutzle
Byfield
Perfetti
Drysdale
Quinn
Askarov
Rossi
Raymond
Lapierre

Raymond is way to low, Lapierre still somehow in the top 10, and putting Quinn ahead of Rossi is interesting to say the least...

 

[HoweFan]

If Ottawa gets two of the top four picks how likely are they to take Drysdale with one of them?