2020 NHL Draft Thread: only 365 more days until next years hockey tryouts

[thestonedkoala]

But honestly, a 4th overall would help immensely as well. Ask Avs fans if it was worth being mad to draft MacKinnon. Ask Pens fans if it was worth being bad to draft Crosby. Ask Florida fans if it was worth being bad to draft Barkov.

It sucks when it happens, but getting that top center is always worth it. Always.

First off one of those players isn't like the others. Secondly how many Cup Finals or hell Conference Champions did MacKinnon or Barkov play in? Third, how many times has Eichel been to the playoffs compared to Pasta or Tarasenko?

 

[AKL]

First off one of those players isn't like the others. Secondly how many Cup Finals or hell Conference Champions did MacKinnon or Barkov play in? Third, how many times has Eichel been to the playoffs compared to Pasta or Tarasenko?

Does team success matter when comparing individual players? Should someone tell McDavid he’s one of the worst players in the league because his team hasn’t been good? I don’t want to be the one to do it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

First off one of those players isn't like the others. Secondly how many Cup Finals or hell Conference Champions did MacKinnon or Barkov play in? Third, how many times has Eichel been to the playoffs compared to Pasta or Tarasenko?

I’m stumped. Which one?

 

[2Pair]

I’m stumped. Which one?

Well, Barkov and Mackinnon are both 24 while Crosby is 32 - could be Sid
Mackinnon and Crosby are Canadian while Barkov is Finnish- could be Sasha
Crosby and Barkov are left handed while Mackinnon is right handed- could be Nate

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I’m all for the long term approach, but it is scary to think that we could have a season of misery only to end up with top 9 nhler. Being bad and hoping for a superstar isn’t my desired route, but I’ve watched this team try to take the route of doing whatever it takes to get into the playoffs for almost 20 years, and I’m ready to try anything else. No more mortgaging the future. This team is a ticking-time bomb. Our top 2 centers are over 35. There’s a solid argument to be made that Dubnyk is a bottom 5 Starting goalie in this league. We have a terrible offense and two of our best players (Parise and Suter) are over 35 and making 7.5 million each for 6 more years. We have one of the worst prospect pools in the league. Things need to get worse(standings-wise) before they get better, and I just hope they do before Dumba needs a new contract. Like I said, I’ve never been a proponent of tanking(until now) but the idea of having a Byfield in the organization gives me a lot more hope and excitement than thinking about this team playing in the playoffs this year. I get chills thinking about what it could be like adding Kaprizov, Boldy, and Byfield to the team at the same time.

 

[2Pair]

I’m all for the long term approach, but it is scary to think that we could have a season of misery only to end up with top 9 nhler. Being bad and hoping for a superstar isn’t my desired route, but I’ve watched this team try to take the route of doing whatever it takes to get into the playoffs for almost 20 years, and I’m ready to try anything else. No more mortgaging the future. This team is a ticking-time bomb. Our top 2 centers are over 35. There’s a solid argument to be made that Dubnyk is a bottom 5 Starting goalie in this league. We have a terrible offense and two of our best players (Parise and Suter) are over 35 and making 7.5 million each for 6 more years. We have one of the worst prospect pools in the league. Things need to get worse(standings-wise) before they get better, and I just hope they do before Dumba needs a new contract. Like I said, I’ve never been a proponent of tanking(until now) but the idea of having a Byfield in the organization gives me a lot more hope and excitement than thinking about this team playing in the playoffs this year. I get chills thinking about what it could be like adding Kaprizov, Boldy, and Byfield to the team at the same time.

Nope

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Nope

Yup

 

[2Pair]

Yup

Koskinen
Korpisalo
Rittich
Markstrom
Jones
Grubauer
Hutton
Howard
Anderson
Mrazek
Schneider

I'm no Dubnyk fan but I would love to see you try and make a solid argument that at least 7 of these guys are better than Dubnyk.

The offense is probably below average, but it isn't terrible.

The prospect pool is middle of the road at worst

 

[thestonedkoala]

Does team success matter when comparing individual players? Should someone tell McDavid he’s one of the worst players in the league because his team hasn’t been good? I don’t want to be the one to do it.

So what you are saying is we should keep tanking? And then what? Florida has had how many top 3 picks? Arizona? Edmonton? Colorado? Buffalo? How successful have they been?

Again it all comes down to scouting. If you have good scouts, they will find good players more often then not. That's why teams like St. Louis, Tampa Bay, San Jose, Boston have had success without multiple top 3 picks.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Stamkos and Hedman were top 3 picks.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Koskinen
Korpisalo
Rittich
Markstrom
Jones
Grubauer
Hutton
Howard
Anderson
Mrazek
Schneider

I'm no Dubnyk fan but I would love to see you try and make a solid argument that at least 7 of these guys are better than Dubnyk.

The offense is probably below average, but it isn't terrible.

The prospect pool is middle of the road at worst

I promise you that you could take Rittich, markstrom, Jones, Grubauer, Hutton, Howard, Anderson, and Mrazek and put the in same spot as dubnyk and they would return relatively similar, if not better numbers than Dubnyk.

Dubnyk plays behind arguably the best defense in the NHL, in a top 3 defensive system that is notorious for shot quality suppression. The Wild were the best team in terms of suppressing shot quality this season by a mile and Dubnyk put up a .913 save percentage. Remember that he put up those numbers in a team where his expected save percentage, depending on the source, was anywhere from .930 to .937.

Here’s a good informative piece: xSV% is a better predictor of goaltending performance than existing models


For this website, put the minimum games played at 45 to get the majority of the starters in play.
NHL Goalie Statistics

Dubnyk doesn’t fare well in save% above expected whatsoever, which is interesting given some of the goalies that do...

Koskinen put up numbers that are close to Dubnyk’s. His GAA Isn’t relevant in comparison because he played on a far worse defensive team and it’s easy to see how he could jump in between the pipes for the wild and bump his numbers atleast to dubnyk’s level. At least.

Craig Anderson is probably a worse goalie, but there is still an argument to be made that he could produce Dubnyk’s numbers playing for the wild. I mean the senators were by far the worst team in the league in shot suppression.

Jimmy Howard put up .004 less save percentage than Dubnyk on a far worse team. He was also above Dubnyk in save% above expected

Rittich put up near identical numbers to Dubnyk, but once again had a much worse team and faced a far higher percentage of high danger chances.

Markstrom numbers last year were near identical to Dubnyk. Once again, worse defense in front of him. Much, much lower expected save percentage.

I’m sure you get the theme but I will continue.

Jones had an awful season last year. In general I don’t feel confident saying he or Dubnyk are actual starting goalies in this league.

Grubauer has been mainly a backup/1B goalie, but a very good one at that. He’s average about a .920% the last for seasons. I’m not great at evaluating goaltenders’ skills, but it’s obvious from a technical standpoint that Grubauer >>> Dubnyk in everything outside angles.

Schneider is Stalock bad

Mrazek played like an NHL starter last year in his 40 games posting a 2.39GAA and .915% SV he, like many of these goalies, doesn’t have the track record, but neither did Dubnyk when he came to MN. It’s so obvious that Dubnyk in his first 4ish seasons with MN was an “OK” starter that was sold as a top 15 NHL goalie by the fact that he played behind an elite defense playing a great system. I think we could replace him so easily and if we would’ve added someone like Lehner who is technically sound, always has been, and now mentally sound, we would be looking at a potential playoff team. Just watching the team last year it’s obvious how deflating it is when Dubnyk let’s in a soft goal (1 in 50 chance) every other game.

Offense might not be terrible but they were like 28th or something in goals for after Dumba’s injury and were shutout 10 times in the last 40 games or something like that. I think Zucc and Dumba being healthy will help, but I also believe we will see some regression from staal and Parise so i’d put us in the 23rd-25th range, hopefully better, but time will tell if the offense is horrible.

The prospect pool... just isn’t deep. I mean nobody ever really knows until the players make it to the league, but we have no depth. Outside of KK and Boldy we might not have a future NHLer. This one is an opinion so I just defer to the public consensus where the highest I saw us ranked was 22nd by the Athletic.

 

[Wabit]

Dub had played in around 190 games before MN got him, with a few seasons as the primary starter on those awful EDM teams.

I read that article and a bout 3 other ones it linked. The flaw in the math is accounting for deflected shots that go in off the goalie's own player and shots where the goalie is screened. The stats are mainly taken from the box score of shot from "x" spot with "y" type of shot, it does add some other variables but the basic formula relies on Fenwick. Playing in front of a good defensive team like MN means these GA weight heavily on to the - side and it's harder for the goalie to offset that with routine saves from high scoring chances.

I'm not trying to say Dub doesn't give up some bad goals, he gives up his fair share.

The goalie also plays a big part in shot suppression numbers. Just having good rebound control and/or not giving up rebounds helps. Go to hockeyviz and look at the heatmaps from last year with and without Dub on the defensive side.

 

[57special]

I don't think that Doobs is nearly as bad as you guys( or the analytics)are making out.

The main thing that bugs me about him is his puck handling, which is atrocious. You would think that he would pick up something off Stalock.

 

[Bazeek]

I don't think that Doobs is nearly as bad as you guys( or the analytics)are making out.

The main thing that bugs me about him is his puck handling, which is atrocious. You would think that he would pick up something off Stalock.

Dubnyk's shown himself to be a capable goalie over the course of a season, with stretches of greatness, but last year he was pretty weak all around. He didn't get a lot of goal support, but the defense was about as strong as it usually is.

He'll probably be fine, but the team isn't going to see much success if he has another year like that.

 

[DANOZ28]

at best i'd rate doobs 15th which isn't going to win a cup. last year he gave up a lot of soft goals. as far as our prospect pool there are only so many roster spots so i don't think you need a ton of prospects just a few really good ones. imo we're only missing a pair of top 6 C prospects ; 1rw & 1 goalie stud prospects.

 

[thestonedkoala]

1 goalie stud prospects.

No, we're not. Khakonen and Robson are pretty damn good and who knows about Jones?

 

[DANOZ28]

im talking about elite prospects , they are ok prospects. is anybody around the league talking about these guys or just wild posters?

 

[thestonedkoala]

im talking about elite prospects , they are ok prospects. is anybody around the league talking about these guys or just wild posters?

Did anyone really talk about Matt Murray before his run? Did anyone really talk about Binnington before his run? What about Eddie Lack? How is he doing? How about Schneider? How long did it take for Lehner to break out?

Goalies are odd ducks, and it doesn't matter if anyone around the league is talking about them or not. Khakonen looked pretty good for his first season and Robson looks promising.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Well, Barkov and Mackinnon are both 24 while Crosby is 32 - could be Sid
Mackinnon and Crosby are Canadian while Barkov is Finnish- could be Sasha
Crosby and Barkov are left handed while Mackinnon is right handed- could be Nate

There’s also the part where Crosby’s draft lottery was unlike the other two since the entire previous year was a lockout. Pens fans didn’t really suffer more than any other fan base on their road to getting Crosby.

 

[57special]

Play like Derriere to get Lafreniere

 

[AJ Thelen]

Play like Derriere to get Lafreniere

We need a center.

#BeBad4Byfield

Or

#Quit4Quinton

 

[Wabit]

There’s also the part where Crosby’s draft lottery was unlike the other two since the entire previous year was a lockout. Pens fans didn’t really suffer more than any other fan base on their road to getting Crosby.

Well they did have 4 straight top-2 picks and a 5oa in that 5 year span. The lockout saved their fans from having to watch another awful season. Not that the fans were showing up anyways. Pit was in danger of losing the team.

 

[TaLoN]

We need a center.

#BeBad4Byfield

Or

#Quit4Quinton

More like #BeBadBe4LosingTheLotteryAndEndUpPicking4th

 

[Wabit]

More like #BeBadBe4LosingTheLotteryAndEndUpPicking4th

#BBB4LTLAEUP4 even the abbreviated version of that is too long.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I’d love a top 7 this year. Lafrienere, obviously has the potential to be a superstar. Byfield is drawing Malkin comparisons. Holtz is a great goal scorer who can also make plays. Raymond is a Mitch marner clone. I think he could be better than marner. Perfetti would be an awesome addition to our collection of centers who aren’t really centers. Lundell im skeptical about but he looks like a valid koivu replacement. Gunler can really bury pucks