GDT: 2020 NHL Draft (Oct. 6-7)

[Langway]

Easily the best Hughes in hockey!

 

[Cush]

 

[g00n]

Huggy Bear

 

[Hivemind]

I had Sieg behind all those players except Neuvirth as the 8th best player since Zednik. If you’ve got him 9th that’s still very high from an enormous sample size of guys that never made it to the NHL because non 1st round pick aren’t worth much.

There's also players like Djoos (who I still think is better than Siegenthaler), Pettinger, Bulis, Sanford, Carrick, Bowey, and Lepisto on the same tier as Siege. It's easy to rate him higher than some of those guys using the power of hindsight on them and an optimistic view for Siegenthaler's future, but all of these players had similar promise at the same stage of their career to Siege and grabbed a depth NHL roster spot somewhere (and guys like Sanford, Carrick, Bowey, and Djoos still have one). Similarly, there's not really an argument for Siege ahead of Neuvirth at this juncture, considering Neuvirth carved himself out a career as a 1B while Siege is barely still starting his NHL journey.

Most of the draft pick success-rate analysis isn't about "never making the NHL," but rather who becomes a "career player." The definition of career player may vary, but it's typically set at some games played threshold. A decent chunk of 2nd rounders do actually make the NHL for 1+ games, it just rapidly declines as you increase that games played threshold. For reference, 22 of the 31 players picked in the 2015 2nd round have made an NHL appearance (and 10 of them have played more games than Siege). At 90 NHL GP, Siege has slightly beaten the odds of his pick (44% of 2nd round selections from 2000-2009 played 50 NHL games), but hasn't reached the 200 NHL GP threshold that only about 25% of 2nd rounders achieve.

As for the value by round, the fact that the probability of career NHLers is low in the later rounds is the rationale for why you SHOULDN'T be trading up, not why you should. As the draft progresses, a shotgun approach to drafting and development is increasingly favored to targeting specific players, since it's a lot better to have multiple guys like 15% odds than one guy with 18% odds.

And, once again, let's not lose the forest for the trees here. I'm not arguing that Siegenthaler was a bad pick or that the Capitals shouldn't have picked him. If Siegenthaler was an isolated incident, it would be one thing. But he's not. He's only one example of the many instances the Capitals have traded up in the draft under GMBM. Especially when combined with all the picks they deal away to help the NHL club (which obviously makes sense during a contention window), it's a large contributing factor to why their prospect system is so poorly rated. This will likely be the fourth draft that GMBM has overseen in which the Capitals only make four selections.

 

[Cush]

10 kids in the family? He's #6

 

[Marshall]

Bear Hughes just got a solid 45 seconds of coverage on NHL Network. Wow.

 

[Langway]

The cupboard is no longer bare. It is Bear.

 

[Cush]

Spokane Chiefs’ Bear Hughes took unusual path to success in Western Hockey League

 

[Marshall]

Hughes can be found at the front of the net, it seems. Bueno.

 

[Cush]

Larry Fisher had Trineyev at 95 & Hughes at 338

 

[hb12xchamps]

Bear Hughes and Hershey were a match made in heaven. I’m sure that first interview is gonna be a fun one for the Hershey marketing staff

 

[alexthekidd]

Alexander Pashin could be a nice value pick if he's still there.

 

[Cush]

Garin Bjorklund, Goalie, Medicine Hat

20 - 5 - 1 / 2.91 GAA / .897 SV%

https://thehockeywriters.com/garin-bjorklund-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

Strengths
NHL-caliber build
Lots of experience for a young goaltender
Can handle pressure and make a game-winning save

Under Construction (Improvements to Make)
Needs to slow the game down in net
Hasn’t taken on a full starting workload yet
Still has very raw talent

2/5 Risk, 5/5 Reward

 

[Rayquaza64]

i wonder where that "best player avaliable" mentality went since most of these day 2 picks were "safe" picks but definitely not bpa

 

[Random schmoe]

Pronman had Trineyev at number 83 on his final top 131 ranking (September 29). ($$) In June he was ranked 101.

(Mods: Am I allowed to post this quote? Dunno where the line is drawn, for one player vs the entire piece?)

Trineyev was a solid forward at the Russian junior level and intrigued scouts with how he looked on the international stage. He is interesting because he’s a 6-foot-3 forward with a high skill level. He can make tough 1-on-1 plays to create chances. He can make plays and move the puck, but I wouldn’t call him a natural playmaker. He has a quality shot and can score from a distance if he gets time. Trineyev has a big body, can play inside the tough areas, can win pucks along the boards and has some physicality in his game. He competes well and has some two-way value. His main issue is his average quickness. His stride looks good and he doesn’t lack jump in his step, but he doesn’t have a true separation gear to turn the corner on defensemen.

NHL scout on Trineyev: “I like Trineyev’s big body and the skilled plays he can make down low, but he doesn’t see the game that well.”

 

[Cush]

Sorry, Finland, there's always next year!

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

i wonder where that "best player avaliable" mentality went since most of these day 2 picks were "safe" picks but definitely not bpa

You think likelihood to make it as a pro isn't baked into a BPA ranking?

Most talented/highest upside =/= BPA.

 

[Cush]

 

[blindsideheadshot]

Stylistically a lot like Holts, high compete, looks like he sees the puck well. Falls into the pattern of goalies we like to draft. I liked McClennon, but watching these clips, hurts a little less to have just missed out and add back some G depth.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Ridley Simon]

Arm Chair GM’s are having a field day today!

(I’d better watch out.....as this will be seen as “an appeal to authority” argument and I will get roundly chastised by said Arm Chair GM’s.....which will then turn into a “Strawman” argument as I “moved the goalposts” in my entire post).

 

[pman25]

i wonder where that "best player avaliable" mentality went since most of these day 2 picks were "safe" picks but definitely not bpa

BPA doesn’t mean anything because every team has different rankings and methodologies. For all we know, they did go BPA. It’s also kinda useless after the first 15 picks or so, there’s wide variance among scouting staffs and analysts at that point

 

[Ridley Simon]

Yay! A Pens/Caps trade. First since Jagr???

 

[hockeykicker]

Yay! A Pens/Caps trade. First since Jagr???

Vokoun

 

[Random schmoe]

But wait! There's more!