NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - Part VII

[Micklebot]

So true. I'm sure the fans of the teams that are currently between 17th and 24th place perceive the five game series as the completion of the regular season while the fans of the bottom 7 teams view the play in as part of the playoffs. I doubt that it has anything to do with self interest though.

If habs fans see their 82 pts pace team going head to head in a best of 5 series against the Pens and their 102 pts pace for the right to continue on in the final 16 playoff group as just the completion of the remaing 11 reg season games, there is something seriously wrong with them...

 

[topshelf15]

Zero % chance of any of this happening, thankfully. Sharks pick was traded in 2018, regardless.

Yep think you are right,that pick was already deffered once with Buf gaining last years...On the condition we get this years

 

[ijif]

I simply don't believe that the virus should improve any teams playoff chances. I'd be shocked if any format is approved that results in this... Oh wait, they already did that.

There needs to be an opportunity cost for teams like the Hawks and Mtl if they are going to be given a 5 game series to move on to the final 16, wiping out 70 games that said they don't belong, when teams like NJ and Buf had virtually identical records (and the potential to finish higher than the Habs best case scenario).

No solution will be perfect, but we can certainly do better than what has been proposed so far...

The team with the 8th best record in the league potentially could end up in the lottery and win 1st OA while the 24th ranked team plays in the final 16. That doesn't make any sense.

I am wondering why you think it is beneficial to the Habs or Hawks to be the in the play-in? I mean, if you were a player, I'd get it. If you were an owner, I'd get it; however, you are neither as far as I know.

If I was fan of MTL or CHI, I would not want to be in the play-in.

In my opinion, the play-in is a stupid gimmick. Seed the teams based on PTS%, and start the playoffs. It really should be that simple. If you don't make it by PTS%, should have been better throughout the season!

 

[topshelf15]

I am wondering why you think it is beneficial to the Habs or Hawks to be the in the play-in? I mean, if you were a player, I'd get it. If you were an owner, I'd get it; however, you are neither as far as I know.

If I was fan of MTL or CHI, I would not want to be in the play-in.

In my opinion, the play-in is a stupid gimmick. Seed the teams based on PTS%, and start the playoffs. It really should be that simple. If you don't make it by PTS%, should have been better throughout the season!

A 16 game playoff is what should have happened,but the league decided to do this...Its dumb and causes too much infighting,but I can agree that MTL and Chi have been favored ...Them getting a top 10 pick and a shot at the cup should have been easily enough...But them wanting to be included in the lottery as well...Reeks of selfishness

 

[Micklebot]

I am wondering why you think it is beneficial to the Habs or Hawks to be the in the play-in? I mean, if you were a player, I'd get it. If you were an owner, I'd get it; however, you are neither as far as I know.

If I was fan of MTL or CHI, I would not want to be in the play-in.

In my opinion, the play-in is a stupid gimmick. Seed the teams based on PTS%, and start the playoffs. It really should be that simple. If you don't make it by PTS%, should have been better throughout the season!

Fans like to watch their team play, going on a cinderella run and maybe you see something special. If the choice is between a 6% shot at the lottery or seeing 3 or more games of my team, i can see the appeal of either. The fact is though, getting guaranteed one of that 6% chance or getting at least into the 2nd round (final 16) is the best of both worlds. Ask clb fans if theyd rather have swept the lightning or gotten a 6% lottery ticket. You'll get mixed results im sure.

The play in is not so much a gimmick, its the solution to a problem, and not the obvious one of who should make the playoffs, but rather how to meet the NHLs broadcast obligations. More teams and more rounds means they will be on the hook retuning less of the tv deal revenues. I suspect we will get some variation in future seasons too, perhaps an added round to win the wild card spots.

I've said it before, there is no perfect solution. Every option has flaws. Find the one that best achieves the leagues goals and go with it. Guarantee though that just seeding teams by pts% misses out on some pretty important issues the league wanted to address, othwrwise they would have done that a long time ago.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I am wondering why you think it is beneficial to the Habs or Hawks to be the in the play-in? I mean, if you were a player, I'd get it. If you were an owner, I'd get it; however, you are neither as far as I know.

If I was fan of MTL or CHI, I would not want to be in the play-in.

In my opinion, the play-in is a stupid gimmick. Seed the teams based on PTS%, and start the playoffs. It really should be that simple. If you don't make it by PTS%, should have been better throughout the season!

I agree ... this went overboard imo under the guise of trying to be fair to a very small number of teams .. but gains some splash -> cash in some big markets
Keep it simple. Sorry to Jets fans.. you came close , just like every year there are teams that fall just short

Atlantic Division
x-Boston Bruins: .714, 44-14-12
x-Tampa Bay Lightning: .657, 43-21-6
x-Toronto Maple Leafs: .579, 36-25-9
Florida Panthers: .565, 35-26-8 --- 11 % points back
Montreal Canadiens: .500, 31-31-9 -- see Chicago
Buffalo Sabres: .493, 30-31-8
Ottawa Senators: .437, 25-34-12
Detroit Red Wings: .275, 17-49-5
Metropolitan Division
x-Washington Capitals: .652, 41-20-8
x-Philadelphia Flyers: .645, 41-21-7
x-Pittsburgh Penguins: .623, 40-23-6
w1-Carolina Hurricanes: .596, 38-25-5
w2-New York Islanders: .588, 35-23-10
Columbus Blue Jackets: .579, 33-22-15 --- highest % out of the playoffs but they are 9 % points back
New York Rangers: .564, 37-28-5
New Jersey Devils: .493, 28-29-12
Central Division
x-St. Louis Blues: .662, 42-19-10
x-Colorado Avalanche: .657, 42-20-8
x-Dallas Stars: .594, 37-24-8
w1-Nashville Predators: .565, 35-26-8
Winnipeg Jets: .563, 37-28-6 -- 2 % points back played
Minnesota Wild: .558, 35-27-7
Chicago Blackhawks: .514, 32-30-8 how did we get to these guys in a playoff?
Pacific Division
x-Vegas Golden Knights: .606, 39-24-8
x-Edmonton Oilers: .585, 37-25-9
x-Vancouver Canucks: .565, 36-27-6
w2-Calgary Flames: .564, 36-27-7
Arizona Coyotes: .529, 33-29-8 --- 35 percentage points back
Anaheim Ducks: .472, 29-33-9
Los Angeles Kings: .457, 29-35-6
San Jose Sharks: .450, 29-36-5

 

[Crosside]

A 16 game playoff is what should have happened,but the league decided to do this...Its dumb and causes too much infighting,but I can agree that MTL and Chi have been favored ...Them getting a top 10 pick and a shot at the cup should have been easily enough...But them wanting to be included in the lottery as well...Reeks of selfishness

I m not agree with this but I understand that a lottery with Montreal and Chicago in is more seller than a lottery with just the 7 bad team.

 

[topshelf15]

I m not agree with this but I understand that a lottery with Montreal and Chicago in is more seller than a lottery with just the 7 bad team.

Why have a lottery??Just draft where teams finished,After all they gave teams a shot at the playoffs that had no business being there...Them getting that shot and the 8th is more than fair isnt it??

 

[Crosside]

Why have a lottery??Just draft where teams finished,After all they gave teams a shot at the playoffs that had no business being there...Them getting that shot and the 8th is more than fair isnt it??

The lottery bring another broadcast for the tv. The nhl have 1.3 B to recover so it s normal to try to recover the most lost. Totally agree 8th is fair. The best scenario is team in play in can just move 4 spot

 

[Sens in Process]

Grant McCagg, the guy who was out front of the Koktiemi to Montreal at 3 rumour in 2018, and whose top 20 ranked players in his Draft Guide were all selected in the top 20 for 2019 (including Lassi Thomson who he had at 13) has published his new draft guide.

One of the more contentious rankings is that he has Sanderson at #3 and Byfield at #4. He provides his thought process here:



With the new updated rankings from Mckeens(Sanderson #5), now McCagg's and with Marc Edwards from HockeyProspect saying he has Sanderson ahead of Drysdale(final rankings not released yet), it looks there is a trend to have Sanderson in the top 5 (or very close) across various scouting services. It is not an aberration.


I get this feeling we are going to take Sanderson with one of our top 2 picks. He just checks too many boxes.

 

[ijif]

Fans like to watch their team play, going on a cinderella run and maybe you see something special. If the choice is between a 6% shot at the lottery or seeing 3 or more games of my team, i can see the appeal of either. The fact is though, getting guaranteed one of that 6% chance or getting at least into the 2nd round (final 16) is the best of both worlds. Ask clb fans if theyd rather have swept the lightning or gotten a 6% lottery ticket. You'll get mixed results im sure.

The play in is not so much a gimmick, its the solution to a problem, and not the obvious one of who should make the playoffs, but rather how to meet the NHLs broadcast obligations. More teams and more rounds means they will be on the hook retuning less of the tv deal revenues. I suspect we will get some variation in future seasons too, perhaps an added round to win the wild card spots.

I've said it before, there is no perfect solution. Every option has flaws. Find the one that best achieves the leagues goals and go with it. Guarantee though that just seeding teams by pts% misses out on some pretty important issues the league wanted to address, othwrwise they would have done that a long time ago.

Trading 6% lottery odds to watch your team play 3 games is incredibly short-sighted. Frankly, people thinking that way likely have issues with delaying gratification. Miracle runs are nice, but they basically never result in the actual end goal being accomplished, so they are pointless from an objective point. Generally, it just results in your miracle team getting a worse pick in the draft, or your GM being a complete idiot and making unnecessary moves because he cannot evaluate his team.

CBJ fans can think what they want, but objectively speaking, they would be in a better spot right now had they have traded Panarin and BOB before those playoffs even happened.

I know it was done for business reasons. I am not arguing against that. For the fans, there is a perfect and fair solution. I hope for future sake, these kinds of contracts (tv deals and such) can be negotiated to deal with natural disaster type events, so the league does not have to comprise integrity for money. I am not versed on the business side of the game, but by using the word gimmick, I meant the league compromising integrity for money.

 

[Micklebot]

I agree ... this went overboard imo under the guise of trying to be fair to a very small number of teams .. but gains some splash -> cash in some big markets
Keep it simple. Sorry to Jets fans.. you came close , just like every year there are teams that fall just short

Pts% is how I would have gone too, but its that cash that's the key.

if the play in round on average takes 4 out of 5 possible games to settle, that's an extra 40 games broadcasted nationally to make up for some lost revenue. Not sure how they'd divide those revenues. I suspect it would just get put against any obligations they had to repay because of the cancelled reg season.

Anyways, they didn't go that route, so now they need to figure out how to make the route they did go with as fair as possible for the entire league, not just Mtl and Chicago.

Honestly, they probably should have gone with a round robin for just the teams that had a realistic shot at a wild card spot. Maybe have Florida, Carolina, NYI, Clb Rangers, on the east, and Winnipeg, Minnesota, Calgary and Arizona on the west all compete in a round robin or double round robin for those 4 wild card spots. Have a conference cross over or don't, doesn't matter.

A round robin like that more accurately resembles the finishing of a reg season imo and would remove the bad optics of the pens potentially missing the final 16 in favour of the Habs getting in.

 

[Micklebot]

Trading 6% lottery odds to watch your team play 3 games is incredibly short-sighted. Frankly, people thinking that way likely have issues with delaying gratification. Miracle runs are nice, but they basically never result in the actual end goal being accomplished, so they are pointless from an objective point. Generally, it just results in your miracle team getting a worse pick in the draft, or your GM being a complete idiot and making unnecessary moves because he cannot evaluate his team.

CBJ fans can think what they want, but objectively speaking, they would be in a better spot right now had they have traded Panarin and BOB before those playoffs even happened.

I know it was done for business reasons. I am not arguing against that. For the fans, there is a perfect and fair solution. I hope for future sake, these kinds of contracts (tv deals and such) can be negotiated to deal with natural disaster type events, so the league does not have to comprise integrity for money. I am not versed on the business side of the game, but by using the word gimmick, I meant the league compromising integrity for money.

Fans are by definition an irrational bunch. The reality is only one team achieves the ultimate goal, and historically, it's been a lot of the same teams, so you could argue it's in every teams best interest to trade off key UFA at the deadline and miss the playoffs from a long term perspective. In the end, it's all about entertainment, and what you value in your entertainment might not be what others value.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Pts% is how I would have gone too, but its that cash that's the key.

if the play in round on average takes 4 out of 5 possible games to settle, that's an extra 40 games broadcasted nationally to make up for some lost revenue. Not sure how they'd divide those revenues. I suspect it would just get put against any obligations they had to repay because of the cancelled reg season.

Anyways, they didn't go that route, so now they need to figure out how to make the route they did go with as fair as possible for the entire league, not just Mtl and Chicago.

Honestly, they probably should have gone with a round robin for just the teams that had a realistic shot at a wild card spot. Maybe have Florida, Carolina, NYI, Clb Rangers, on the east, and Winnipeg, Minnesota, Calgary and Arizona on the west all compete in a round robin or double round robin for those 4 wild card spots. Have a conference cross over or don't, doesn't matter.

A round robin like that more accurately resembles the finishing of a reg season imo and would remove the bad optics of the pens potentially missing the final 16 in favour of the Habs getting in.

Sounds like a better option to me that what they went with. But that part like you say is settled and now the fall out... I can't believe that the NHL did not have an idea of how they would proceed from the 24 teams to a lottery and then to the draft but maybe I am giving them too much credit. Problem 1... stumble, stumble stumble... ok Problem 1 solved... Problem 2.. stumble stumble stumble... Since they opted for a 24 team playoff with teams like the Hawks, Habs and Yotes finding their way in ... I guess we can expect another wtf solution for Problem 2.

These problems will seem small when it comes to the one of keeping everyone safe through this.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Our pick has already been deferred a year from SJ ,that has to count for something doesnt it??

Not really.

Not when the NHL is the way it is, favoring certain markets and trying to push the illusion of parity.

Not saying it will happen....but anything can happen with this league. The NHL is inching closer and closer to the WWE every year.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Yep think you are right,that pick was already deffered once with Buf gaining last years...On the condition we get this years

having this year's works out better for us.

 

[topshelf15]

Not really.

Not when the NHL is the way it is, favoring certain markets and trying to push the illusion of parity.

Not saying it will happen....but anything can happen with this league. The NHL is inching closer and closer to the WWE every year.

The league needs to tread very carefully here,there are some markets that are badly in need of a spark...Ours being one of them,also with a little extra push maybe we could restart our arena project...Which would help the league moving forward

 

[ijif]

Fans are by definition an irrational bunch. The reality is only one team achieves the ultimate goal, and historically, it's been a lot of the same teams, so you could argue it's in every teams best interest to trade off key UFA at the deadline and miss the playoffs from a long term perspective. In the end, it's all about entertainment, and what you value in your entertainment might not be what others value.

Fans being irrational has nothing to do with anything. Everyone is irrational to an extent, so just saying so does not invalidate a person's or group's particular idea or thought.

As for the Stanley Cup stuff, I would not argue what you are suggesting, but I would say many teams are mediocre. They are not good enough to win, and they are not bad enough to add elite talent through the draft, so what are they really doing? We were in this spot for a while.

All I ask for as a fan is that Dorion makes every move with the goal of building a team that is capable of scoring above 50% of the goals at 5v5, and a team that generates 100+ GAR year in and year out. The same teams win cups over and over because they are the only teams that can hit these benchmarks over and over again. If we can do both those things for 5+ years, we have a great chance to win a cup or two, and we will all be much more entertained than watching a terrible team play a couple of games and maybe go on a random run every 10 years. In other words, I am happy to miss the play-in, miss the playoffs, be really bad if it helps us get the thresholds outlined above. This would hold true regardless of what team I cheered for.

I get people are entertained by different things, but I am arguing I would trade 3 units of entertainment now for a potential 16 units in the future. I am willing to take on the potential loss of 0 units for the potential gain of 16 units.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Grant McCagg, the guy who was out front of the Koktiemi to Montreal at 3 rumour in 2018, and whose top 20 ranked players in his Draft Guide were all selected in the top 20 for 2019 (including Lassi Thomson who he had at 13) has published his new draft guide.

One of the more contentious rankings is that he has Sanderson at #3 and Byfield at #4. He provides his thought process here:

The reason McCagg had Kotkaniemi at 3, Thomson at 13 and now has Sanderson at 3 is because he's a huge Habs homer and they were big on the first two guys and are probably very high on Sanderson (they need a stud LD badly).

Don't take him seriously. Edwards and his scouting service on the other hand are generally great and them ranking Sanderson high says a lot.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

The league needs to tread very carefully here,there are some markets that are badly in need of a spark...Ours being one of them,with a little extra push maybe we could restart our arena project...Which would help the league moving forward

That's true. But we're also small potatoes. And any "troubles" here can be easily solved...one way or another.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

So true. I'm sure the fans of the teams that are currently between 17th and 24th place perceive the five game series as the completion of the regular season while the fans of the bottom 7 teams view the play in as part of the playoffs. I doubt that it has anything to do with self interest though.

my point is i dont care if we are handed increased odds because of the virus. or for whatever other reason. i wont feel guilty if the sens benefit from this new format. i dont care about fair.

 

[Micklebot]

Fans being irrational has nothing to do with anything. Everyone is irrational to an extent, so just saying so does not invalidate a person's or group's particular idea or thought.

As for the Stanley Cup stuff, I would not argue what you are suggesting, but I would say many teams are mediocre. They are not good enough to win, and they are not bad enough to add elite talent through the draft, so what are they really doing? We were in this spot for a while.

All I ask for as a fan is that Dorion makes every move with the goal of building a team that is capable of scoring above 50% of the goals at 5v5, and a team that generates 100+ GAR year in and year out. The same teams win cups over and over because they are the only teams that can hit these benchmarks over and over again. If we can do both those things for 5+ years, we have a great chance to win a cup or two, and we will all be much more entertained than watching a terrible team play a couple of games and maybe go on a random run every 10 years. In other words, I am happy to miss the play-in, miss the playoffs, be really bad if it helps us get the thresholds outlined above. This would hold true regardless of what team I cheered for.

I get people are entertained by different things, but I am arguing I would trade 3 units of entertainment now for a potential 16 units in the future. I am willing to take on the potential loss of 0 units for the potential gain of 16 units.

You asked why fans would benefit from their team being involved in a play in. Their short term gratification is the answer, and their irrationality means their gratification is not always a linear relationship with team success. There are plenty of fans that simply are not in it for the long haul. in 5 years, they may have kids and a family that trumps following the team. It is what it is, bird in the hand and all.

In terms of team success, yes, missing the playoffs today is likely better long term for a team like Mtl, along with teams that were slated to be in the wild card spot too. But being in the playoffs now is not nothing, it's not worthless, so while the opportunity cost of losing your 6% chance at 1st OA is likely too much for a team like Mtl, not having any opportunity cost at all associated with being gifted a playoff round is too little when compared to teams like Buffalo and NJ who are basically in an identical scenario except they've been excluded from the playoffs.

 

[armani]

Grant McCagg, the guy who was out front of the Koktiemi to Montreal at 3 rumour in 2018, and whose top 20 ranked players in his Draft Guide were all selected in the top 20 for 2019 (including Lassi Thomson who he had at 13) has published his new draft guide.

One of the more contentious rankings is that he has Sanderson at #3 and Byfield at #4. He provides his thought process here:



With the new updated rankings from Mckeens(Sanderson #5), now McCagg's and with Marc Edwards from HockeyProspect saying he has Sanderson ahead of Drysdale(final rankings not released yet), it looks there is a trend to have Sanderson in the top 5 (or very close) across various scouting services. It is not an aberration.


I get this feeling we are going to take Sanderson with one of our top 2 picks. He just checks too many boxes.

If the Sens somehow pick 4 at highest, I wish teams ahead of them follows McCagg's suit and pick up Sanderson so that Byfield drops to us!

Either Sandy is getting a bit overrated or Byfield somewhat underrated.

Do you have McCagg's 2018 draft preview? Curious to see where he had Tkachuk listed, or his viewpoint on the player. Some of the HF posters here made it feel like they were talking about a 3rd liner when they were describing Tkachuk prior to the draft :.

 

[ijif]

You asked why fans would benefit from their team being involved in a play in. Their short term gratification is the answer, and their irrationality means their gratification is not always a linear relationship with team success. There are plenty of fans that simply are not in it for the long haul. in 5 years, they may have kids and a family that trumps following the team. It is what it is, bird in the hand and all.

In terms of team success, yes, missing the playoffs today is likely better long term for a team like Mtl, along with teams that were slated to be in the wild card spot too. But being in the playoffs now is not nothing, it's not worthless, so while the opportunity cost of losing your 6% chance at 1st OA is likely too much for a team like Mtl, not having any opportunity cost at all associated with being gifted a playoff round is too little when compared to teams like Buffalo and NJ who are basically in an identical scenario except they've been excluded from the playoffs.

Nitpick, but I did not ask how fans would benefit. Clearly, they benefit in the sense that they get to watch their team play. No one would argue against that. I would be entertained if Ottawa was in the playoffs; however, if that occurred, I would argue that the team itself does not benefit (if the goal is to win the cup). I guess if you count the fans as part of the team, you could say the team does benefit. Anyway, it is all semantics, and I see your point.

Yes, many fans end up not being in it for the long haul, but while you are a fan, it should be assumed that you are in it for the long haul. As such, a fan should promote what is best for the long term interest of the team.

I guess the disagreement really comes down to the fact of how you view the value of these playoffs. To the bad teams themselves (not fans), I see no benefit besides $.

I am more concerned about a crappy team getting a lucky play-in win leading to a really good team jumping up in the draft. A crappy team won't win it all, but they can sure win a round or a play-in. A PTS% seeding stops that. It seems like most people think PTS% is a solid idea, but everyone knows that money talks.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Simply put, any ranking that has Byfield below Sanderson is trash.