NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART VI

[bert]

I hope we select Alexander Pashin with one of our second-round picks. He is a player that will fall due to factors outside of his on-ice play. Based on Byron Bader's model, he is roughly the 12th best forward in the draft. With 7 picks in the first two rounds, Pashin is a player we should swing on.

There are alot of these small high skilled forwards this year. I think you'll see teams wait on them and the sens will likely be able to grab one in the third round that has late first / high second value.

 

[Micklebot]

This is the solution to the issue of abusing the system via 'tanking,' and I wonder why this has not been discussed, considered, and implemented already by the league. If a team sucks, by all means let them have a good shot at a high pick. But if they do get the first overall, they shouldn't be able to do so for a few years. Teams tend to suck for a few consecutive years, but it makes sense to me that a team should be locked out of top 3 picks if they've had 1OA recently.

So, what if a team legitimately sucks, and wins the lottery, but had already traded their pick?

Alternatively, you legitimately suck and win a lottery to draft the next Yakupov, continue to legitimately suck because Yakupov, only to be blocked from drafting McDavid? Sucks to be you, you were lucky in the wrong year?

Honestly, the McDavid/Eichel year was fine, the odds were such that you had no guarantee of getting 1st OA, and the team that legitimately tanked missed out on the generational guy (but was fortunate enough to still get an elite guy because of a deep draft).

Lottery for the top 3 picks can push legitimately bad teams so far back that they are in a much higher bust risk pick and far less likely to be a franchise guy.

Moving up only 4 spots gave the worst team too high of odds that the appearance or perception of tanking was high. current system punishes bad teams because of past perceptions. Middle ground is best imo, though the top 3 in the lottery does give teams not at the bottom a lot more reason to care about the lottery, so it's probably a good business decision rather than a fair one.

 

[bert]

Not a fan of that list personally. This person clearly didnt physically watch the players on the 67s if they think there is an 18 pick difference.

 

[BondraTime]

Wouldn't pick Pashin in the top few rounds, well I wouldn't pick him at all, but value wise I wouldn't in the first 3/4 rounds.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Pretty sure the changes were decided prior to the sabres tanking...

From Aug 2014:
NHL announces changes to Draft Lottery format

Probably had a lot to do with the Sabres entering the 2014/15 season with arguably the worst roster on paper in a long time in a transparent attempt to tank for McDavid/Eichel.

 

[Micklebot]

Probably had a lot to do with the Sabres entering the 2014/15 season with arguably the worst roster on paper in a long time in a transparent attempt to tank for McDavid/Eichel.

So in recognition of their transparent attempt to tank, the NHL in it's great wisdom decided to... not really do anything substantial that year but implement a more fool proof method the next year?

Idk, I think it's far more likely that the years of fans complaining about Edm hoarding all the picks, with 3 1st OA in a row followed by a lull where they drafted 7th, only to draft 3rd the next year had the league more inclined to act than Buffalo.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Not a fan of that list personally. This person clearly didnt physically watch the players on the 67s if they think there is an 18 pick difference.

I am not a fan of all the rankings. but most lists are like that , I always expect a little disagreement; but I do like the effort put into it. I like that the stats were included, and the brief write up on all the players.

 

[Hale The Villain]

So in recognition of their transparent attempt to tank, the NHL in it's great wisdom decided to... not really do anything substantial that year but implement a more fool proof method the next year?

Idk, I think it's far more likely that the years of fans complaining about Edm hoarding all the picks, with 3 1st OA in a row followed by a lull where they drafted 7th, only to draft 3rd the next year had the league more inclined to act than Buffalo.

You make some good points.

If the NHL's main concern was ensuring the same teams don't end up with the 1st OVR pick each year, it would have been far smarter to come up with a rule about winning it only once within a certain number of years instead of still giving them a chance to win, albeit a reduced chance.

Feel like the top 3 lottery is designed more to reduce the benefits of tanking and finishing last. Instead of guaranteeing the 2nd OVR pick at worst, the worst team now has over a 50% chance to pick outside of the top 3. Not a whole lot of benefit to outright tanking compared to under the previous system.

I like the top 3 system and would keep it in place, but would also eliminate the possibility of picking #1 OVR twice within a 3 year period. Doing that would eliminate the Devils and Sabres' chances of winning it this year and open up 17.5% chance of picking #1 that could be shared with the other lottery teams. Think that would be a way of both reducing tanking and ensuring teams don't run the table on 1st overall like the Oilers and Devils have with 6 out of the last 10 1st OVRs split between them.

 

[Bob1321]

 

[Sens72]

Feels more and more like the idea to revert back to the old lottery isn’t going to happen. Not surprised, nothing good ever happens to us.

 

[Sweatred]

Not a fan of that list personally. This person clearly didnt physically watch the players on the 67s if they think there is an 18 pick difference.

That’s why there is no point trading up for Quinn. He could be available at 21 and if he isn’t someone else is similar is. 21 plus A Guhle type (41) isn’t worth reaching for a local fan favourite.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

i still can't believe anyone would take Stutzle over Byfield. I just shake my head.

 

[JimmySpaetzle]

So are there any more updates or not really?

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Feels more and more like the idea to revert back to the old lottery isn’t going to happen. Not surprised, nothing good ever happens to us.

it sounds like they're leaning towards a 24 team playoff which would mean the bottom 7 teams can win the first overall pick. This is good news for Ottawa too.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

So are there any more updates or not really?

https://nypost.com/2020/05/07/nhl-r...t/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=twitter_app

 

[IlTerrifico]

I just can't see why the majority of GMs wouldn't prefer for the bottom 5 or 7 teams to have the shot at the top 3 players available in the draft.

Obviously, the 5 or 7 bottom feeders would like this, and if I am in the 16 teams that would normally make the playoffs, I have no shot at them anyways, but would really not want to see teams with a decent roster but out of the playoffs land star players in the lottery. Imagine Lafreniere going to Winnipeg, NYR or Chicago? Could send them to some dominant years very soon.

 

[armani]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/07/nhl-r...t/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=twitter_app

A decision to go directly to a tournament would allow the league to establish a draft lottery under which the seven teams on the other side of the cut line would be eligible for the first-overall pick. Those clubs would be the Red Wings, Senators, Sharks, Kings, Ducks, Sabres and Devils. The order of selection determined by the lottery drawing would apply whether the draft is held in June or following completion of the tournament.

Wonder how they come up with the odds for best of 7. Still better than a 15-team lottery, although this might improve odds for all teams gaining significant boost in getting 1st overall. Which may in turn reduce the chances for Detroit and Ottawa to land the first as there are others in the pot with significant odds.

 

[bert]

Why did they bother suggesting it was a likely thing to happen. Losers.

Feels more and more like the idea to revert back to the old lottery isn’t going to happen. Not surprised, nothing good ever happens to us.

This franchise has had horrible luck, I dont see it changing any time soon. Melnyk karma isnt helping either. God damnit I just wish he would sell and put us out of this fan hell.

it sounds like they're leaning towards a 24 team playoff which would mean the bottom 7 teams can win the first overall pick. This is good news for Ottawa too.

So I havent seen anyone post about it but how would they do a 24 team playoff? Wouldnt it result with 3 teams in each conference left over?

 

[ijif]

Wouldn't pick Pashin in the top few rounds, well I wouldn't pick him at all, but value wise I wouldn't in the first 3/4 rounds.

Why would you not draft him? I'm assuming it is because of his size.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Wonder how they come up with the odds for best of 7. Still better than a 15-team lottery, although this might improve odds for all teams gaining significant boost in getting 1st overall. Which may in turn reduce the chances for Detroit and Ottawa to land the first as there are others in the pot with significant odds.

A 24-team playoff is probably the best bet for us to get better odds. Solves most of the league's problems at once too.

 

[Micklebot]

So I havent seen anyone post about it but how would they do a 24 team playoff? Wouldnt it result with 3 teams in each conference left over?

Its in the brooks article, they will have a best of 3 play in round

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Why did they bother suggesting it was a likely thing to happen. Losers.

This franchise has had horrible luck, I dont see it changing any time soon. Melnyk karma isnt helping either. God damnit I just wish he would sell and put us out of this fan hell.


So I havent seen anyone post about it but how would they do a 24 team playoff? Wouldnt it result with 3 teams in each conference left over?

Posted they link above. It would result in wings, Sens, kings, ducks, sharks, sabres, devils all missing

“The format of a 24-team tournament has not yet been established. But if the league goes with the top 12 teams in each conference, that would include every club at NHL .500 or better when play stopped on March 11. That structure would include the Rangers and Chicago.
If the league were for some reason to go with the six top teams in each division — the NHL hasn’t had a division-based playoff system since 1992-93 — that would mean that the Sabres (.493) would replace the Rangers (.564) and the Ducks (.472) would replace the Blackhawks (.514).”

 

[BondraTime]

Why would you not draft him? I'm assuming it is because of his size.

Don't see him ever becoming an NHL regular.

 

[Crosside]

I read an article and know why Yzerman don’t like the new idea for the lottery. Apparently he don’t want Lafrenière but shy to pick Stutzle first. Want to trade is pick I hope if we have the second and if he trade for the team have the third pick , we pick Stutzle with ours 2 overall