Prospect Info: 2020 Leafs Board Prospect Rankings #7

[Schenn]

I will make a thread every day until we have determined the top 20 prospects according to Leaf fans on HFBoards for I think my 10th straight year. The criteria for a prospect will be loosely based on Calder eligibility. There may be a couple that slip through the cracks the first few posts because I am not perfect. Also please let me know if I have someone listed that is no longer with us, or any omissions. Comprehensive prospect lists are a little harder to find than you'd think this time of year.

Rankings:
1. Rasmus Sandin -- 48.4%
2. Nicholas Robertson -- 83.5%
3. Timothy Liljegren -- 53.8%
4. Rod Iron Amirov -- 94.3%
5. Mikhail Abramov -- 36.5%
6. Filip Hallander -- 32.4%
7.

______________
On The Docket:

Mac Hollowell
Filip Kral
Yegor Korshkov
Ian Scott
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
Nick Abruzzese
Joey Anderson
Mikko Kokkonen
Roni Hirvonen
Topi Niemela
William Villeneuve
Joe Woll

____________
Next on the List:

JD Greenway
Nikolai Chebykin
Vladimir Bobylev
Vladislav Kara
Ryan O'Connell
Adam Brooks
Pontus Holmberg
Semyon Kizimov
Joe Duszak
Justin Brazeau
Teemu Kivihalme
Michael Koster
Calle Loponen
Artur Akhtyamov
Dmitri Ovechkinov (I like this better)
Joe Miller
Wyatt Schingoethe
Ryan Tverberg
Axell Rindell
Veeti Miettinen
John Fusco

______________
Past Results:
Prospect Info: - 2019 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #20

Prospect Info: - 2020 Leafs Board Prospect Rankings #1
Prospect Info: - 2020 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #2
Prospect Info: - 2020 Leafs Board Prospect Rankings #3
Prospect Info: - 2020 Leafs Board Prospect Rankings #4
Prospect Info: - 2020 Leafs Board Prospect Rankings #5
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-leafs-board-prospect-rankings-6.2785116/

Suggest who I should add next, and who needs to be removed.

Click to read more...

 

[stickty111]

It gets interesting here. I have Kokkonen.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I like Anderson here. He's arguably not a prospect because 50 games played, but I like how much of a sure thing he is and he has at least some upside

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I’m going Korshkov again. Yeah he’s 24, yeah he hasn’t done anything in the NHL.

But he’s a 6’4 beast who has speed, size, and skill + he’s producing pretty well right now in the K.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

I’m going Korshkov again. Yeah he’s 24, yeah he hasn’t done anything in the NHL.

But he’s a 6’4 beast who has speed, size, and skill + he’s producing pretty well right now in the K.

Anderson is younger and has had better numbers, and more NHL experience also. Sounds like lots of people just look at his size and hope we get the next stud power forward. 24 is already into forward prime years.

I went with Abruzzese; I like going with high upsides.

 

[RomanianLeafs]

Korshkov..guy is playing very Well now, lets give this guy a full year în the nhl and you will be surprised

 

[Morgs]

Anderson for me.

Still not sure I get the Korshkov love but I think he's at least going in the right tier of guys.

 

[aingefan]

Korshkov again, cuz if he never got hurt.....
He, Hallander and Anderson were the next tier for me.
As each poll goes by though, it gets clearer and clearer that there’s some nice upside and depth in the system.
Feels good

 

[Cor]

I voted
Roni Hirvonen

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Another case of posters here putting WAY too much value on being close to the NHL, I mean that should play a part, but it seems that is the major contributing factor to these results. Korshkov is a decent prospect, but what is he? A 4th liner, who can maybe be a 3rd liner if things work out? What is Anderson? a likely 3rd liner who can fill in spot duty in the top 6? This is not being negative on Anderson, I actually love adding him to the pool. Players like Hirvonen, Abruzzese, Niemela are just all better prospects with more upside.

Voted Hirvonen here.

 

[Morgs]

Another case of posters here putting WAY too much value on being close to the NHL, I mean that should play a part, but it seems that is the major contributing factor to these results. Korshkov is a decent prospect, but what is he? A 4th liner, who can maybe be a 3rd liner if things work out? What is Anderson? a likely 3rd liner who can fill in spot duty in the top 6? This is not being negative on Anderson, I actually love adding him to the pool. Players like Hirvonen, Abruzzese, Niemela are just all better prospects with more upside.

Voted Hirvonen here.

I think you're dismissing prospect floor too much. A guy like Anderson is basically a guarantee to be a NHL player in some capacity, whether it's in a top-6, 3rd line, or even 4th line role. Sure his upside may not be on the same level as a Hirvonen or Niemela at this point, but that's balanced by the fact their floors are a hell of a lot lower to the point where we dont know if they'll actually even be NHL players.

For me I tend to agree thinking Korshkov is too high here, and I'd have him behind Niemela and Hirvonen, but I also think Anderson's NCAA/AHL/NHL track record point to him being an overall better prospect than anyone left on this board (and I had Niemela in my first round).

 

[Ashdown2]

Another case of posters here putting WAY too much value on being close to the NHL, I mean that should play a part, but it seems that is the major contributing factor to these results. Korshkov is a decent prospect, but what is he? A 4th liner, who can maybe be a 3rd liner if things work out? What is Anderson? a likely 3rd liner who can fill in spot duty in the top 6? This is not being negative on Anderson, I actually love adding him to the pool. Players like Hirvonen, Abruzzese, Niemela are just all better prospects with more upside.

Voted Hirvonen here.

thats why we needed guidlines because i vote the opposite way lol

 

[Judas Tavares]

This is where we see a dropoff. Not sure who to vote for. Hirvonen is tempting but I don't know much about him. I thought Korshkov looked good vs. Buffalo and in his preseason games. Anderson has already made it.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

I think you're dismissing prospect floor too much. A guy like Anderson is basically a guarantee to be a NHL player in some capacity, whether it's in a top-6, 3rd line, or even 4th line role. Sure his upside may not be on the same level as a Hirvonen or Niemela at this point, but that's balanced by the fact their floors are a hell of a lot lower to the point where we dont know if they'll actually even be NHL players.

For me I tend to agree thinking Korshkov is too high here, and I'd have him behind Niemela and Hirvonen, but I also think Anderson's NCAA/AHL/NHL track record point to him being an overall better prospect than anyone left on this board (and I had Niemela in my first round).

I don't see too much to disagree with here, the floor is definitely something to factor in, and I'm not too opposed to people having Anderson this high as I do think he has decent upside and is likely a pretty sure bet to be a valuable 3rd liner. I just think it sucks that a player like Korshkov is basically running away with this poll right now with the players still available and I don't even dislike Korshkov, at all.

 

[Canada4Gold]

thats why we needed guidlines because i vote the opposite way lol

I just base it on my mental guess(read: I don't actually do this math) of who has the better average career.

For example if we put a scaleless number on their value and say 90% of the time Korshkov is worth 3 units of value, and 10% of the time he's worth nothing. On average that's 2.7 units of value.

If we say Anderson is worth 5 unit of value 50% of the time, worth 2 units of value 20% of the time, and 30% of the time he's worth nothing on average, that's 2.9 units of value.

If 10% of the time Abbruzzese is worth 20 units of value, 20% of the time he's worth 5 units of value, and the other 70% he's a bust, on average that's 3 units of value.

If Hirvonen was worth 20 units 5% of the time, worth 5 units 10% of the time, and a bust the other 85 he'd be worth 1.5 on average

So with those estimations they would rank Abbruzzese, Anderson, Korshkov, then Hirovanen. So Abbruzzese's ceiling helps make him #1 despite busting 70% of the time, while Hirovanen's ceiling isn't enough to get him ahead of the safer Anderson and Korshkov.

Nobody actually needs to do math like this to make a decision. It's just a mathematical illustration of how you might weigh upside versus floor. Is the player's upside high enough, with enough probability to hit it enough to make him worth more on average than the player who's likely got an NHL floor, but not a high upside.

Please nobody argue the percentages I chose, it was just an example. I'm not saying X player has Y% chance of busting.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

thats why we needed guidlines because i vote the opposite way lol

Just think of it as if you were Dubas, who you would rather keep if you had to include one in a deal. Overall value.

 

[hamzarocks]

Korshkov should be given every chance to make the team next year. Hes tearing up the KHL, had a solid year in the AHL, and has size to be a very effective 3rd line guy who can give 30+ points next year. I would have him with a roster spot over engvall if engvall doesnt stand out in preseason.

 

[Morgs]

Just because others are giving their two cents:

I see it as overall how you and how you believe GM's [should] value the prospect,

Nobody will value them the same because some like safe (Korshkov - low ceiling/high floor) over higher risk (Abruzzese - high ceiling/low floor), but the question becomes where/when does ceiling outweigh the floor (as everyone would prefer a 1st line player over a 3rd line one).

Just essentially you need to think about what you believe a players absolute upside is, their ability of hitting it, and what you think their floor is if they dont. It's always changing too so you can always go back on your opinion (unless your name is Button). Age is also a gigantic factor as it becomes more clear what the player will max out at/become, with guys like Hyman being the exception, not the rule.

For example, my top-11 (where my 2nd tier ends) :

1. Liljegren (21) - #2 upside, #5 Floor
2. Sandin (20) - #2 upside, #5 Floor
3. Robertson (19) - 1st line upside, 4th line floor
4. Amirov (19) - 1st line upside, 4th line floor
--
5. Abramov (19) - top-6 upside, bust floor
6. Hallander (20) - 2nd line upside, 4th line floor
7. Anderson (22) - 2nd line upside, 4th line floor
8. Niemela (18) - #4 upside, bust floor
9. Hirvonen (18) - 2nd line upside, bust floor
10. Abruzzese (21) - 2nd line upside, bust floor
11. Korshkov (24) - 3rd line upside, 13th F floor.

 

[ponder]

I’ll go Joey Anderson, and add Akhtyamov.

 

[hobarth]

What no Mikko Lehtonen?

 

[Morgs]

What no Mikko Lehtonen?

He's 26.

 

[Ashdown2]

I just base it on my mental guess(read: I don't actually do this math) of who has the better average career.

For example if we put a scaleless number on their value and say 90% of the time Korshkov is worth 3 units of value, and 10% of the time he's worth nothing. On average that's 2.7 units of value.

If we say Anderson is worth 5 unit of value 50% of the time, worth 2 units of value 20% of the time, and 30% of the time he's worth nothing on average, that's 2.9 units of value.

If 10% of the time Abbruzzese is worth 20 units of value, 20% of the time he's worth 5 units of value, and the other 70% he's a bust, on average that's 3 units of value.

If Hirvonen was worth 20 units 5% of the time, worth 5 units 10% of the time, and a bust the other 85 he'd be worth 1.5 on average

So with those estimations they would rank Abbruzzese, Anderson, Korshkov, then Hirovanen. So Abbruzzese's ceiling helps make him #1 despite busting 70% of the time, while Hirovanen's ceiling isn't enough to get him ahead of the safer Anderson and Korshkov.

Nobody actually needs to do math like this to make a decision. It's just a mathematical illustration of how you might weigh upside versus floor. Is the player's upside high enough, with enough probability to hit it enough to make him worth more on average than the player who's likely got an NHL floor, but not a high upside.

Please nobody argue the percentages I chose, it was just an example. I'm not saying X player has Y% chance of busting.

good work !! much more effort that i would put into it but i like your style.
i think my dartboard method is less stressfull

 

[Canada4Gold]

good work !! much more effort that i would put into it but i like your style.
i think my dartboard method is less stressfull

Thanks, but I don't do any actual mathematical work. I still only roundabout guess whether I think a players upside is high enough with enough likelihood that it'll outweigh the value a safer player brings. In this particular case I voted Abruzzese because I think his upside is high enough that on average he's a better player than everyone else despite the higher bust probability. But I didn't do the actual numerical calculations to figure that out so it really didn't take any longer. Figured it may give an idea of how someone might weigh upside versus floor rather than just dartboarding it.

An easy example is say Amirov versus Korshkov. Almost everyone would probably say Amirov is the better prospect. But why? Korshkov is putting up better numbers is the KHL right now and probably has a higher NHL probability because he's likely an NHL level player right now. But Amirov's sky high potential and decent chance of reaching it clearly would mean on average he's likely to be better because of the top line potential he has as top line players are worth so much more than 4th liners which might be Korshkov's most likely placement. That decision becomes rather intuitive and obvious for most and nobody would ever do a mathematical calculation for it, but intuitively that's what most people are likely thinking, on average Amirov's upside is worth more than Korshkov's floor. It just becomes a line of ok when does a players upside become small enough, and less likely enough to be worth less than Korshkov. Miettinen for example has a higher upside but would pretty clearly be a worst prospect. It's the finer guys inbetween where it becomes more debatable. Is someone like Hirvonen's upside worth more than Korshkov's floor on average? It depends on the person voting's opinion of the 2 prospects.

 

[Canada4Gold]

He's 26.

How old was Mikheyev when we included him last year? Was it 24 or 25? I can't remember.

 

[Magic Man]

Just because others are giving their two cents:

I see it as overall how you and how you believe GM's [should] value the prospect,

Nobody will value them the same because some like safe (Korshkov - low ceiling/high floor) over higher risk (Abruzzese - high ceiling/low floor), but the question becomes where/when does ceiling outweigh the floor (as everyone would prefer a 1st line player over a 3rd line one).

Just essentially you need to think about what you believe a players absolute upside is, their ability of hitting it, and what you think their floor is if they dont. It's always changing too so you can always go back on your opinion (unless your name is Button). Age is also a gigantic factor as it becomes more clear what the player will max out at/become, with guys like Hyman being the exception, not the rule.

For example, my top-11 (where my 2nd tier ends) :

1. Liljegren (21) - #2 upside, #5 Floor
2. Sandin (20) - #2 upside, #5 Floor
3. Robertson (19) - 1st line upside, 4th line floor
4. Amirov (19) - 1st line upside, 4th line floor
--
5. Abramov (19) - top-6 upside, bust floor
6. Hallander (20) - 2nd line upside, 4th line floor
7. Anderson (22) - 2nd line upside, 4th line floor
8. Niemela (18) - #4 upside, bust floor
9. Hirvonen (18) - 2nd line upside, bust floor
10. Abruzzese (21) - 2nd line upside, bust floor
11. Korshkov (24) - 3rd line upside, 13th F floor.

I think people view it similarly on here anyways. The only difference is it appears that lots of people include Korshkov in the Hallander/Anderson tier of gritty secondary options. He's bigger, he's mean, he's played in the system already and he's having a good start in the KHL.