Prospect Info: 2020 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #4

[TBF1972]

wanted to vote foote, because it would fit the need for a partner for hughes. i went with bahl instead, as he seems to have the higher floor and is closer to nhl action.

 

[Blackjack]

wanted to vote foote, because it would fit the need for a partner for hughes. i went with bahl instead, as he seems to have the higher floor and is closer to nhl action.

They both seem like 2021-2022 players to me.

 

[HBK27]

i say this every year, but can’t we define what we’re judging? apologies if i missed it. is it nhl readiness? potential ceiling? if it’s the former, yeah bastian should be up there and mcleod should be in the top 10

The ranking are essentially how the prospects are currently valued, which is a combination of NHL potential and the likeliness of them achieving it. It's like doing one big redraft based on what we know now, so the criteria is going to be a bit different for each person.

So, for instance I think that Bastian has a good shot of carving out a role in the NHL at least as a 4th liner & maybe on the PP screening the goalie. He's probably a better bet to have an NHL career than Mukhamadullin who's a bit more of a wildcard...but Muk has a higher upside as a top 4 defenseman, so for me personally I'm taking that risk and going with Muk. You can also compare them as trade assets, where Muk (a recent 1st round pick) would return better value that Bastian at this moment.

 

[MartyOwns]

I think it’s undefinable. Your vote is your choice for next on the list, using your own criteria on what matters more. For some, it will be potential, and for others it will be the one with the least risk.

The ranking are essentially how the prospects are currently valued, which is a combination of NHL potential and the likeliness of them achieving it. It's like doing one big redraft based on what we know now, so the criteria is going to be a bit different for each person.

So, for instance I think that Bastian has a good shot of carving out a role in the NHL at least as a 4th liner & maybe on the PP screening the goalie. He's probably a better bet to have an NHL career than Mukhamadullin who's a bit more of a wildcard...but Muk has a higher upside as a top 4 defenseman, so for me personally I'm taking that risk and going with Muk. You can also compare them as trade assets, where Muk (a recent 1st round pick) would return better value that Bastian at this moment.

that’s cool and makes sense, but unless everyone is aligned on the criteria we’re voting on, this is a pretty pointless exercise. it passes the time though, so i’m not complaining

 

[Guttersniped]

that’s cool and makes sense, but unless everyone is aligned on the criteria we’re voting on, this is a pretty pointless exercise. it passes the time though, so i’m not complaining

When GM’s make trades how do you think they measure worth? It’s always measuring a player’s upside, aka scoring, vs the likelihood of them simply making the NHL and contributing more modestly as a depth player. The values are different, so Fitz can talk about Kukkanen’s scoring in the AHL while Dubas can talk about Anderson’s mature defensive play as a young player in the NHL.

Now this is basic stuff I know you know and it can be frustrating and feel when people value the different and seemingly things but I always found this a fun exercise for posterity. Plus, unless I’m working to feed and cloth myself or performing CPR* a lot things are arguably pointless but I need to amuse myself somehow.


*You really don’t want me performing CPR on you, high school was a while ago. It was more theoretical. Everything I do may in fact be pointless, I’m no philosopher.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Surprised by the lopsided results!

Mukhamadullin has much higher upside than Foote

Foote has the potential to be a goal-scoring power forward on your top line. That's pretty darned good. He was an easy vote here for me.

When factoring prospect ranks -- and this is entirely subjective, so I'm not saying you're opinion is in any way wrong -- I find that it's better to weigh "upside" (or talent ceiling) against "downside" (or talent floor). Because I'd rather have a prospect who is a very good third-line talent who is extremely likely to make it to the show than a kid with second-line upside but a lot of risk that he'll never make it.

Some of the Devils' past "low ceiling, high floor" prospects have included Jay Pandolfo, Colin White and Andy Greene. Players who fit this mold in the system currently -- though of course there is still no guarantee -- include Patrick Moynihan, Nikita Okhotyuk and Case McCarthy.

Mukhamadullin has very good upside as a two-way defender with size, good wheels, physicality and a cannon-blast for a shot. But he is a long way from reaching this upside, still very mistake-prone and in need of much refining in his decision making with and without the puck. I'm rooting for him too, and he seems to be taking some great strides this year, especially on the offensive side of things. But I could not consider him as the superior prospect to Foote, who at this point is a sure bet to be at least an NHL middle-6 forward and has 30+ goal upside.

 

[My3Sons]

Foote has the potential to be a goal-scoring power forward on your top line. That's pretty darned good. He was an easy vote here for me.

When factoring prospect ranks -- and this is entirely subjective, so I'm not saying you're opinion is in any way wrong -- I find that it's better to weigh "upside" (or talent ceiling) against "downside" (or talent floor). Because I'd rather have a prospect who is a very good third-line talent who is extremely likely to make it to the show than a kid with second-line upside but a lot of risk that he'll never make it.

Some of the Devils' past "low ceiling, high floor" prospects have included Jay Pandolfo, Colin White and Andy Greene. Players who fit this mold in the system currently -- though of course there is still no guarantee -- include Patrick Moynihan, Nikita Okhotyuk and Case McCarthy.

Mukhamadullin has very good upside as a two-way defender with size, good wheels, physicality and a cannon-blast for a shot. But he is a long way from reaching this upside, still very mistake-prone and in need of much refining in his decision making with and without the puck. I'm rooting for him too, and he seems to be taking some great strides this year, especially on the offensive side of things. But I could not consider him as the superior prospect to Foote, who at this point is a sure bet to be at least an NHL middle-6 forward and has 30+ goal upside.

Mukhamadullin may need to percolate long term in the KHL and we may not see him polished enough for NHL defensive play until he is 23-24. That's a long wait but if he grinds down his warts there he stands a much better chance of actual success when he comes to North America most likely.