GDT: 2020 Free Agency Part II: Embrace the Grind

[Hasbro]

Johnson has two choices either waive or take a buyout:

He takes a buyout he will lose a 1/3 of contract that he will have to make up in what will be a very constricted free agent market and it will have to be somewhere other than Colorado.

Or he risks the minimal chance of selection by Seattle, has at least two guys thankful they weren't exposed, gets to keep his full contract and gets to stay with a contender.

 

[UncleRisto]

Did a very quick mock-up of how the Seattle expansion draft would go if it happened today. This isn't even 10% right IMO, but what was highlighted doing the mock was how many young defensemen will potentially be exposed, especially on the LHD. I think Compher will be more likely to go over Graves. I can also see them setting themselves up to be a major player in free agency by drafting a bunch of young players, as those players will have the most value to trade in the flat cap world. There really isn't that much prime talent being exposed, so this would probably be their best route as even if they miss out during free agency, they'll have a lot of room to make moves and worst case, tank the season.

View attachment 373831

They'll draft players who fit roles better than that for sure. Not just every 22-year-old.

 

[PAZ]

They'll draft players who fit roles better than that for sure. Not just every 22-year-old.

I think it depends on how much they expect they can get from Free Agency. A lot will change from now to then... but there really isn't many great players available in the expansion draft itself, unless Seattle wants to burden itself with contracts like Oshie and EJ.

If they were in this years free agent market, I think they would've walked away with both Pie and Hall for around 9-10 mil AAV each - which isn't unreasonable in a normal market.

 

[Hasbro]

I think it depends on how much they expect they can get from Free Agency. A lot will change from now to then... but there really isn't many great players available in the expansion draft itself, unless Seattle wants to burden itself with contracts like Oshie and EJ.

If they were in this years free agent market, I think they would've walked away with both Pie and Hall for around 9-10 mil AAV each - which isn't unreasonable in a normal market.

Still could with Hall next year.

The expansion draft will not happen in a vacuum and some teams will deal with them to get rid of cap space.

 

[McMetal]

Yeah, there will be no shortage of GMs who are under orders from ownership to dump salary on Seattle, no matter how embarrassing it is for them. Their cap space is going to be a great asset, it will be interesting to see if they choose to use it to accumulate draft picks and young pieces, like everybody thought Vegas would do, or if they try to immediately contend by forcing GMs to expose high value/high dollar players just to get under their internal cap. All they have to do is threaten to take a $1m 4th liner from them if shiny player X isn't exposed.

 

[Hasbro]

Yeah, there will be no shortage of GMs who are under orders from ownership to dump salary on Seattle, no matter how embarrassing it is for them. Their cap space is going to be a great asset, it will be interesting to see if they choose to use it to accumulate draft picks and young pieces, like everybody thought Vegas would do, or if they try to immediately contend by forcing GMs to expose high value/high dollar players just to get under their internal cap. All they have to do is threaten to take a $1m 4th liner from them if shiny player X isn't exposed.

And teams going to Seattle and asking what it's worth to take Player X.

That happened with Vegas without the prod of a flat cap.

 

[UncleRisto]

They'll also want to draft some players like Johnson and Oshie. Fans love filling the team with Marko Dano and Jakub Zboril like other teams' bad old prospects have trade value, but somebody has to play the games. Especially given the pressure Vegas has no doubt put on Seattle to not suck out of the gate.

 

[Hasbro]

Your logic shows a very shallow understanding of the game. Avs fast Chara slow; therefore Chara would be useless.

Chara 6’9”. Chara big tree!

 

[Richard88]

Did a very quick mock-up of how the Seattle expansion draft would go if it happened today. This isn't even 10% right IMO, but what was highlighted doing the mock was how many young defensemen will potentially be exposed, especially on the LHD. I think Compher will be more likely to go over Graves. I can also see them setting themselves up to be a major player in free agency by drafting a bunch of young players, as those players will have the most value to trade in the flat cap world. There really isn't that much prime talent being exposed, so this would probably be their best route as even if they miss out during free agency, they'll have a lot of room to make moves and worst case, tank the season.

View attachment 373831

Seattle have to pick 20 players contracted through 2021/22, so that means a max of 10 UFA's or RFA's.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Pokecheque]

I like Brown but that seems a bit steep.

 

[AvsFan29]

Pronmans top players under 23 might be the worst list I’ve ever seen.


Top 20:
1. ⁠Auston Matthews
2. ⁠Rasmus Dahlin
3. ⁠Elias Pettersson
4. ⁠Alexis Lafreniere
5. ⁠Matthew Tkachuk
6. ⁠Andrei Svechnikov
7. ⁠Patrik Laine
8. ⁠Jack Hughes
9. ⁠Kaapo Kakko
10. ⁠Quinton Byfield
11. ⁠Quinn Hughes
12. ⁠Brady Tkachuk
13. ⁠Cale Makar
14. ⁠Miro Heiskanen
15. ⁠Tim Stutzle
16. ⁠Kirby Dach
17. ⁠Lucas Raymond
18. ⁠Pierre-Luc Dubois
19. ⁠Cole Perfetti
20. ⁠Robert Thomas

 

[Cousin Eddie]

This will push more contracts to get done. I know everybody thinks these guys are rich and have bank accounts to already live off for the rest of their lives but these guys want their money.

For example, Devon Toews will make about 20% of his entire career earnings thus far in one pay cheque on OCT 31 if he has his contract in place by then at approximately 4M.

 

[AvsFan29]

Capped: Value changes for top players in cap leagues using AAV

 

[UncleRisto]

Pronmans top players under 23 might be the worst list I’ve ever seen.


Top 20:
1. ⁠Auston Matthews
2. ⁠Rasmus Dahlin
3. ⁠Elias Pettersson
4. ⁠Alexis Lafreniere
5. ⁠Matthew Tkachuk
6. ⁠Andrei Svechnikov
7. ⁠Patrik Laine
8. ⁠Jack Hughes
9. ⁠Kaapo Kakko
10. ⁠Quinton Byfield
11. ⁠Quinn Hughes
12. ⁠Brady Tkachuk
13. ⁠Cale Makar
14. ⁠Miro Heiskanen
15. ⁠Tim Stutzle
16. ⁠Kirby Dach
17. ⁠Lucas Raymond
18. ⁠Pierre-Luc Dubois
19. ⁠Cole Perfetti
20. ⁠Robert Thomas

Maximum oof.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Pronmans top players under 23 might be the worst list I’ve ever seen.


Top 20:
1. ⁠Auston Matthews
2. ⁠Rasmus Dahlin
3. ⁠Elias Pettersson
4. ⁠Alexis Lafreniere
5. ⁠Matthew Tkachuk
6. ⁠Andrei Svechnikov
7. ⁠Patrik Laine
8. ⁠Jack Hughes
9. ⁠Kaapo Kakko
10. ⁠Quinton Byfield
11. ⁠Quinn Hughes
12. ⁠Brady Tkachuk
13. ⁠Cale Makar
14. ⁠Miro Heiskanen
15. ⁠Tim Stutzle
16. ⁠Kirby Dach
17. ⁠Lucas Raymond
18. ⁠Pierre-Luc Dubois
19. ⁠Cole Perfetti
20. ⁠Robert Thomas

Yikes, that is bad. Is that a projection moving forward? Or currently how he rates them?

 

[dahrougem2]

Eh, I usually disagree with almost everything from Pronman so doesn't bother me

 

[dahrougem2]

Yikes, that is bad. Is that a projection moving forward? Or currently how he rates them?

How he thinks their careers will look when it's all said and done

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

How he thinks their careers will look when it's all said and done

That makes sense for Dahlin being so high. I still think his list is trash though.

 

[crue7]

That makes sense for Dahlin being so high. I still think his list is trash though.

It is absolute trash. Laine over Makar? Okay?

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

That's insane.

 

[UncleRisto]

That's insane.

Is it? Because this was his first full-ish season and he got a two-year bridge.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Did a very quick mock-up of how the Seattle expansion draft would go if it happened today. This isn't even 10% right IMO, but what was highlighted doing the mock was how many young defensemen will potentially be exposed, especially on the LHD. I think Compher will be more likely to go over Graves. I can also see them setting themselves up to be a major player in free agency by drafting a bunch of young players, as those players will have the most value to trade in the flat cap world. There really isn't that much prime talent being exposed, so this would probably be their best route as even if they miss out during free agency, they'll have a lot of room to make moves and worst case, tank the season.

Surely there's someone better than Dick Panik from the caps?

 

[Bill Peckerskull]