2020 Entry Draft Thread Part 8

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DramaticGloveSave

Voice of Reason
Apr 17, 2017
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????: Lafreniere
Kings: Byfield
Sens: Stutzle
Wings: Rossi/Sanderson/Perfetti
Sens: Drysdale
Ducks: Rossi/Sanderson/Perfetti
Devils: Rossi/Sanderson/Perfetti
Sabres: Holtz
 

Scintillating10

Registered User
Jun 15, 2012
18,769
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Nova Scotia
Then Anaheim would take Drysdale at 6

Leaving Raymond Holtz Quinn Rossi
IDK. At 9. Be still good player.

Cosentino said Detriot real high on Perfetti. He said reasons why but too many to list.

He said Sanderson been rising among scouts. Said his size and defense more NHL ready than Drysdale. Said Sanderson's offense will come along as he plays a few seasons.
 

Scintillating10

Registered User
Jun 15, 2012
18,769
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Nova Scotia
Sens need RDs. Can’t see them taking Sanderson over Drysdale.
IDK, just Cosentino. He said Ottawa likely build down middle in this draft. He sees a center at 3. Either one LA don't take. Chances are Byfield. A defenseman at 5. Could be Drysdale though. He said it was tough call. But he had Sandedson over Drysdale. I have it other way around.

It was solid interview. Go listen to it
 
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ahmedou

DOU
Oct 7, 2017
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Mailbag NHL.com (20/07/01)

''What's the most suitable and exciting team in play for Alexis Lafreniere? The best story is the Montreal Canadiens getting to select Lafreniere, keeping the forward prospect in his home province. That's the Hallmark story, and it'd be an amazing consolation prize for the Canadiens if they lose to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Qualifiers. Montreal has not had the No. 1 pick in the NHL Draft since 1980, when it selected Doug Wickenheiser. The Canadiens could have had Quebec native Denis Savard or Paul Coffey, too. Either way, Lafreniere going to Montreal would be the biggest story of the 2020 NHL Draft. It's too bad he's not a center, because that's where the Canadiens have a real need, but getting the chance to have a potential generational talent on the wing would be among the most significant developments for Montreal in a long time.''

MAKE IT POSSIBLY POSSIBLE
 

Pompeius Magnus

Registered User
May 18, 2014
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Kanata ,ON
A lot of people in this thread seem to have Holtz ahead of Raymond. I dont get that. Raymond is better IMO.
I like Raymond better as a complete package ( better tools, more room left to improve) but the fact that Holtz has outproduced him at every level does put a tiny bit of doubt in the back of my head. Plus Holtz is bigger, which doesn't change my optics much personally but will for some people.
 

McGees

Registered User
Jun 15, 2016
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Is it wrong I want the season cancelled now so we don’t have to wait for the Phase 2 lottery to find out if we won
It sounds like most players don’t want to play either but being hockey, they just go along with it and don’t speak out.
 
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Frank JT

Registered User
Feb 8, 2014
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Holtz is more NHL ready. It gives him a good value.
Raymond has the upside, with the risk that comes with it.
They are pretty close anyway.
 

WeThreeKings

Habs cup - its in the BAG
Sep 19, 2006
91,137
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Holtz is more NHL ready. It gives him a good value.
Raymond has the upside, with the risk that comes with it.
They are pretty close anyway.

It is also the Bergevin Habs, so players who need less offensive development are better choices.. they would neglect Raymond's offensive game to care about him being a defensive stalwart.
 

The Great Weal

Phil's Pizza
Jan 15, 2015
52,068
64,494
I think Evangelista is a safe bet to be at least a 3rd liner in the NHL. Hockey smarts is the most important attribute in todays game, and Evangelista has it in spades.
 

NeptunesTrident

Registered User
Feb 22, 2007
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New Jersey’s pick at #7 could really set us up if we pick at #9. I think they’ll take a forward and likely a goal scorer for Hughes. Perhaps Holtz, which would put Buffalo in a position to take Quinn and leave Raymond.
 

Omar

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Oct 10, 2017
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New Jersey’s pick at #7 could really set us up if we pick at #9. I think they’ll take a forward and likely a goal scorer for Hughes. Perhaps Holtz, which would put Buffalo in a position to take Quinn and leave Raymond.

I think the top 5 goes as Laf, Byfield, Stutzle, Sanderson and Drysdale, then Anaheim takes Perfetti, then Jersey takes Raymond at wing, Buffalo takes Holtz at wing or Askarov, then Rossi slips.

So IMO Askarov, Holtz or Rossi at 9.
 
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LastWordArmy

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Sep 11, 2011
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Every sport has a few teams that can’t seem to get out of their own way. In hockey, the Ottawa Senators wear this crown, but the Buffalo Sabres are giving them a run for their money. All the negative press around the Sabers recently got me looking at their painful draft record and wondering, how much different might the Buffalo Sabres look today if they had drafted by something simple like NHLe instead of picking the players they did?

NHLe vs. the Buffalo Sabres Drafting

What is NHLe?

NHLe is a simple yet powerful concept that means NHL equivalency. The general idea is simple, how much is a point in any league worth compared to a point in the NHL. It can also be called a league’s “translation factor” because it roughly translates scoring in any given league to NHL scoring. For example, the KHL has an NHLe of 0.63. This tells us 10 points in the KHL are worth about 6.3 points in the NHL. Exact estimates vary, but this post will use CJ Turtoro’s “Network NHLe” translation factors.

This becomes a useful tool for evaluating prospects. A constant challenge for scouts is adjusting for the quality of various. For example, it can be difficult to intuitively adjust for the difference between the OHL and KHL. With NHLe, those scouts can get a reasonable comparison of two prospects scoring rates, no matter what leagues they play in.

The NHLe Method

With that being said I wanted to test, would an “NHLe method” have out drafted the Buffalo Sabres historically? The idea is simple. For each Buffalo Sabres pick, simply select the player with the highest NHLe per game played among the available drafted prospects. If the Sabres did select the highest scoring player available, don’t change the selection. Then compare the NHL outcomes of my method’s selections to the Buffalo Sabres picks from 2007-2013.

For this post, our selection method will have many drawbacks and one advantage. The first drawback is that I have not accounted for age. Adjusting for age can be crucial for prospects because a year or two represents a large chunk of their lives. So, in 2007 for example, Patrik Zackrisson will be the most desirable prospect, not Patrick Kane. Kane’s NHLe was slightly lower than Zackrisson, but Zackrisson was a year and a half older. As a result, nobody ranked Zackrisson nearly as high as Kane. Our NHLe method will not be able to account for this and would pick Zackrisson first overall in 2007 if given the chance.

The next drawback is the NHLe method will have no contextual information. Points per game are largely a function of five things,
  1. Player talent
  2. Quality of Teammates
  3. Total Time on Ice
  4. Total Time on the Powerplay
  5. Luck
Four of which I consider contextual. Scouts can try to discern what % of prospects production is from each category, this method cannot. It also misses out on any physical information about the prospects.

The third drawback of this method will be no positional adjustment. This method will never draft a goalie and will have a 0 percent chance of selecting high upside picks like John Gibson. Additionally, it will be unable to discern the difference between defencemen and forwards. So take Ryan Ellis for example. He scored at a historic rate for a draft-eligible defenseman in 2009 OHL season. This gave him the statistical profile of an elite defensive prospect. Despite this, the NHLe method would still take a 20-year-old forward in his draft plus 2 season over Ellis if the forward outscored him, even just slightly.

The final drawback is incomplete information. The NHLe method only gets to use a player’s scoring rate from their primary league. So, imagine a player split time between the USDP and USHL. The NHLe method will only get to use a player’s statistics from the league they played in most. The lone exception being (usually with KHL defenders) where prospects played in 2 leagues but produced 0 points in one league. Here I used the player’s output in the league where they scored.

The only advantage our NHLe method will have is knowing which players got drafted. Rather than sorting by all available prospects like teams had to do, the NHLe method will only select from players who were drafted that year. This means the method cannot select the Artemi Panarin‘s of the world but probably helps lower the false positive rate of high scoring players. All in all, it should be the single advantage for the NHLe method. This is an unrealistic advantage but it should absolutely not allow a “sort by points per game” method to beat an actual NHL team’s drafting record, but let’s see what the differences are.

NHLe vs. the Buffalo Sabres Drafting


The Article continues here
https://lastwordonhockey.com/2020/06/30/buffalo-sabres-drafting-vs-nhle/
 
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