2020 Draft Poll

[TheDachKnight]

Disagree on the evaluation. I just don't like what I read really, doesn't seem like an impact guy. I think he'll be a top 4 middle pairing D, but maybe he'll have a support role with a partner who's more offensively focused.

I honestly could see Wallinder or someone with a higher ceiling go before him.

Teams do have different strategies for developing prospects, but you don't draft for a high floor at 6, especially if BPA there will be a winger, and it's likely he'll still be there at 10.

Further right now New Jersey's expected D core consists of Severson on the right hand side and Butcher on the left. Their stronger D prospects are Walsh on the right, and Ty Smith and Bahl on the left.

Besides Gusev and Palmieri who are on the wrong side of their late 20’s now, and Zacha who’s a bust, they have stronger end prospect wingers like Bratt, Boqvist, and hopefuls such as Nolan Foote, Janne Kuokkanen, and Nick Merkley to compete for core spots on the team.

Anyways, I’d say they really are hurting for top end wingers like Raymond or Holtz than a left handed defenseman like Sanderson. But Shero does like his NTDP/NCAA kids

I don’t think it’s necessarily that he has a high floor. Just that his upside is a top-4 LHD. If they believe that he can be a 2/3 and like him more than whatever wing is likely there, they very well could take him at 6. Is it likely? No, but we see crazy shit happen every year. Also, he has a higher ceiling than any of those defensemen you mentioned aside from Smith. Butcher is decent but it’s debatable if he’s even a top-4. Kevin Bahl is a huge maybe. He might end up a top-4 if everything goes right. For the record, I’m not advocating for taking Sanderson that high just that it’s possible he could.

I do agree though that we should probably temper expectations on who will be there if we’re picking 9th. Personally, I’d be happy with Seth Jarvis, Jack Quinn, or even Anton Lundell. I also think Perfetti has a chance to fall if he doesn’t go to Buffalo.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

The pick is Askarov and I'll be laughing right after Stan announces it.

Best goalie prospect since Price and there ppl wanting players who couldn't crack the Hawks top six right now

Never change hfb

 

[RayP]

The pick is Askarov and I'll be laughing right after Stan announces it.

Best goalie prospect since Price and there ppl wanting players who couldn't crack the Hawks top six right now

Never change hfb

Can't wait until you delete your account.

 

[GaryU]

The pick is Askarov and I'll be laughing right after Stan announces it.

Best goalie prospect since Price and there ppl wanting players who couldn't crack the Hawks top six right now

Never change hfb

Opinions are like A$$holes, everybody's got one.

 

[Malaka]

The pick is Askarov and I'll be laughing right after Stan announces it.

Best goalie prospect since Price and there ppl wanting players who couldn't crack the Hawks top six right now

Never change hfb

Why would you want a top 3-5 goaltender in the league when you could draft a middle pairing defensive defenseman or middle six center? Man, their potentials could be elite

 

[Malaka]

I don’t think it’s necessarily that he has a high floor. Just that his upside is a top-4 LHD. If they believe that he can be a 2/3 and like him more than whatever wing is likely there, they very well could take him at 6. Is it likely? No, but we see crazy shit happen every year. Also, he has a higher ceiling than any of those defensemen you mentioned aside from Smith. Butcher is decent but it’s debatable if he’s even a top-4. Kevin Bahl is a huge maybe. He might end up a top-4 if everything goes right. For the record, I’m not advocating for taking Sanderson that high just that it’s possible he could.

I do agree though that we should probably temper expectations on who will be there if we’re picking 9th. Personally, I’d be happy with Seth Jarvis, Jack Quinn, or even Anton Lundell. I also think Perfetti has a chance to fall if he doesn’t go to Buffalo.

I’m not doubtful a team could reach on defenders I just don’t see it likely with the best available picks being forwards and simultaneously filling a need for these clubs. I hope I’m wrong but these prospects in the top 8 are likely not dropping... it’s being held that this draft is reminiscent of 2003, just loaded with high impact talent. Players in the mid first range would allegedly be on the top end in other drafts... and regardless a center like Perfetti or Rossi will be necessary for Buffalo to compete in the future.

I don’t think Sandy has a higher ceiling than Severson but I do concur with most of what else you said. In Mark Kelley we trust

 

[CallMeShaft]

Why would you want a top 3-5 goaltender in the league when you could draft a middle pairing defensive defenseman or middle six center? Man, their potentials could be elite

Why would you wanna gamble on a 17yo goalie, years away from even being a backup, with a top 10 pick?

It's a lot easier to find a legit starter in the NHL than it is to find a top line guy. Just look at us with Lehner for a recent example.

 

[Rick C137]

Why would you want a top 3-5 goaltender in the league when you could draft a middle pairing defensive defenseman or middle six center? Man, their potentials could be elite

I’m gonna keep this old post I made bookmarked because I may just keep quoting this every time your question comes up:

Being a GM is all about mitigating risk and reward. It’s just not very likely that a goalie gives you enough reward that it’s worth the risk of spending a first round pick.

And honestly best case scenario - the goalie you drafted in the first round is one of the better goalies in the league when he gets around to UFA. A top goalie with first round pedigree is going to get paid. I’m not paying for one of the highest paid goalies in the league. He’s either walking as a UFA or I’m trying to salvage some value by trading his rights. That’s a pretty huge difference. You let goalies go if they want too much money. You bend over backwards trying to fit your superstar skaters into your roster though. Don’t waste such a high value asset such as a first round pick on a player who’s value to the team is capped.

Also look no further than the goalie trade market. I think the gap between good and elite goaltending has never been smaller due to modern equipment and techniques. There’s a lot of really good goalies in the league now and only 31 nets. Supply and demand has almost always led to a buyers market for any team looking for a goalie lately. I mean heck, an elite goalie in his prime like Lehner just went for a late second 2nd. We just signed that same guy 6 months ago for free. What would be the reasoning for spending a first on a goalie who might not turn out when you can get one in his prime for less assets...? I just don’t get it. You can almost always trade a mid to late first for a really good goalie later when your putting the finishing touches on your team. You can’t trade a mid to late first and get an elite skater in his prime though. That’s kind of the point. First round targets should be your highest value assets. Goalie is not that.

Also little fun fact right now. The top 4 goalies in sv% currently have a combined cap hit of less than the highest paid goalie in the nhl. Only one of those four were drafted before the 6th round. Investing heavily in goalies is fools gold imo.

 

[Malaka]

Why would you wanna gamble on a 17yo goalie, years away from even being a backup, with a top 10 pick?

It's a lot easier to find a legit starter in the NHL than it is to find a top line guy. Just look at us with Lehner for a recent example.

Could you make clear why you think it’s a gamble and how you think his timeline is years away from even being a backup goaltender?

Game is changing. Starters of yesterday — especially like Lehner — will be phasing out. Players are coming in the league faster and more technical, in response to training for goaltenders becoming standardized in the last 15-20 years. Being big and doing well stopping a first shot in 5v5 won’t cut it anymore, you have to be an animal of an athlete/skater and have better hockey IQ than the players on the ice. But before I continue that tangent, I think in similar fashion goaltenders and the mad scientists that are coaching them are figuring out what that next level is. Askarov could really be even better than we think he’s going to be. Relevant is that Pareto principle and Matthews effect or whatever, I don’t think it will be the same type of league with a supply of legit starters as you say. A potential top 1% goaltenders value and impact is exciting to think about as the game evolves, maybe he’s part of the wheat that will separate from the chaff.

 

[Malaka]

I’m gonna keep this old post I made bookmarked because I may just keep quoting this every time your question comes up:

I understand your ideas in this, I don’t believe I agree with all of them however. I’ll try to respond when I have more time

 

[CallMeShaft]

Could you make clear why you think it’s a gamble and how you think his timeline is years away from even being a backup goaltender?

Game is changing. Starters of yesterday — especially like Lehner — will be phasing out. Players are coming in the league faster and more technical, in response to training for goaltenders becoming standardized in the last 15-20 years. Being big and doing well stopping a first shot in 5v5 won’t cut it anymore, you have to be an animal of an athlete/skater and have better hockey IQ than the players on the ice. But before I continue that tangent, I think in similar fashion goaltenders and the mad scientists that are coaching them are figuring out what that next level is. Askarov could really be even better than we think he’s going to be. Relevant is that Pareto principle and Matthews effect or whatever, I don’t think it will be the same type of league with a supply of legit starters as you say. A potential top 1% goaltenders value and impact is exciting to think about as the game evolves, maybe he’s part of the wheat that will separate from the chaff.

He is still 17. Tell me how many teenaged goalies there have been in the NHL. Carter Hart didn't play an entire season in the NHL until he was 21. And he's been used as the recent example of young goalies in this league.

 

[Malaka]

He is still 17. Tell me how many teenaged goalies there have been in the NHL. Carter Hart didn't play an entire season in the NHL until he was 21. And he's been used as the recent example of young goalies in this league.

Off the top of my head, Vasilievsky, Price, Fleury, Luongo all played in the NHL within 2 years of being drafted. There’s something to be said by a goalie historian other than me about these names and their impact toward pushing the envelope & prototyping the modern goaltender. That’s near what I was getting at with the idea that the game may be evolving and a goaltender like Askarov may set a new standard.

Also Rask/Lehtonen had a cup of coffee too at 20... but you’re right to be skeptic as the average age of a starter entering the league is something like 24.7 years old. Average age of a defenseman is around 23.6, and a forward at 22 iirc

Depends on teams strategies for development with goaltenders but players who are elite and can make an impact find their way

 

[Kaners PPGs]

NJ needs D and we don’t know how they view Sanderson. Perhaps they’re high on him. I think he easily has top-4 D potential and if they think he could be a 2/3 D and might not be there at 10 or whatever Arizona’s pick is (a very real possibility), they might not want to risk not getting a d-man with one of their early 1sts. Who thought Seider would go 6th last year? Or Broberg 8th? Both were considered likely to go in the 10-15 range much like Sanderson is this year.

Exactly. I see 2 dmen going in the top 10 with it likely being Sanderson with Drysdale. But I can't imagine Raymond getting past New Jersey. They need wingers with their top 2 centers locked up and Raymond is easily a level higher than Sanderson. I could see the Devils taking Drysdale at 6 but not Sanderson. Don't get me wrong I would LOVE Raymond getting to Chicago but I would be stunned if it happened.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

Why would you wanna gamble on a 17yo goalie, years away from even being a backup, with a top 10 pick?

It's a lot easier to find a legit starter in the NHL than it is to find a top line guy. Just look at us with Lehner for a recent example.

Exactly. Goalies are so hard to predict while the success rate for skaters are much, much greater at the top of the draft. Look at where the starters in the league where drafted. It's all over the place. Plus, like Shaft wrote, just buy a Lehner or trade for a Georgiev or a Demko.

 

[feichter33]

Ok. I'm gonna comment on the goalie thing and I'm worried I'm gonna catch flak for it but here goes; I am a goalie. Have been for 30 yrs of my life and coached for the last 15 of that. Askarov and the Wallstedt kid from Sweden next year are the 2 most technically solid kids I've seen since Price. No joke. I have no fear of taking either of them.

Do I think there's better value out there...possibly...but I'm not afraid of that pick. We're not talking some kid that got hot at the U20 tourney (in fact it's the opposite)...he's been on the radar for years.

I still hope for Raymond/Holtz/Quinn, but I've never been so intrigued but raw talent of a tendy as Askarov. Go easy on me now...Haha...no bets on this one.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Ok. I'm gonna comment on the goalie thing and I'm worried I'm gonna catch flak for it but here goes; I am a goalie. Have been for 30 yrs of my life and coached for the last 15 of that. Askarov and the Wallstedt kid from Sweden next year are the 2 most technically solid kids I've seen since Price. No joke. I have no fear of taking either of them.

Do I think there's better value out there...possibly...but I'm not afraid of that pick. We're not talking some kid that got hot at the U20 tourney (in fact it's the opposite)...he's been on the radar for years.

I still hope for Raymond/Holtz/Quinn, but I've never been so intrigued but raw talent of a tendy as Askarov. Go easy on me now...Haha...no bets on this one.

As of now Wallstedt looks better. That's a guy you could maybe convince me to take at 9. Askarov...nah. If we were picking 14-20 you could convince me, but not at 9.

 

[TheDachKnight]

Ok. I'm gonna comment on the goalie thing and I'm worried I'm gonna catch flak for it but here goes; I am a goalie. Have been for 30 yrs of my life and coached for the last 15 of that. Askarov and the Wallstedt kid from Sweden next year are the 2 most technically solid kids I've seen since Price. No joke. I have no fear of taking either of them.

Do I think there's better value out there...possibly...but I'm not afraid of that pick. We're not talking some kid that got hot at the U20 tourney (in fact it's the opposite)...he's been on the radar for years.

I still hope for Raymond/Holtz/Quinn, but I've never been so intrigued but raw talent of a tendy as Askarov. Go easy on me now...Haha...no bets on this one.

Love both of those kids. Do I take them at 9? Probably not. However, if we do take Askarov this year at 9 or Wallstedt next year with a top-10 pick, I won’t be upset like a lot of people on here and that’s because of how talented they both are.

 

[Malaka]

As of now Wallstedt looks better. That's a guy you could maybe convince me to take at 9. Askarov...nah. If we were picking 14-20 you could convince me, but not at 9.

On what grounds? Everything I read shows askarov to be the one who leads the new era

 

[Kevin Musto]

On what grounds? Everything I read shows askarov to be the one who leads the new era

Less coverage on Wallstedt cause it's not his draft year. Everyone is talking about Askarov because this is his draft year.

But here's an article form 2018 Future Phenoms: Yaroslav Askarov and Jesper Wallstedt

While Askarov projects out as an amazing player, Jesper Wallstedt is something else. Wallstedt was born in November of 2002, making him ineligible until the 2021 NHL Draft. The 15-year-old has accomplished amazing things at an unbelievably young age. His success as a goaltender is unprecedented in the history of the game.

With Askarov, we can compare him to an amazing and established goaltender like Andrei Vasilevskiy, but with Wallstedt there is no comparison. With this, there is a very good chance that Wallstedt could be the first goaltender since Marc-Andre Fleury to be taken first overall at the NHL Draft in 2021.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

Why would you wanna gamble on a 17yo goalie, years away from even being a backup, with a top 10 pick?

It's a lot easier to find a legit starter in the NHL than it is to find a top line guy. Just look at us with Lehner for a recent example.

So....

Gamble on a forward years away without the elite potential.

On this forum, sounds legit.

Thank God the Hawks have no clue this forum exists and sees this mess.

I can't wait to watch Stan sprint to the podium if Askarov is still on the board when the Hawks pick

 

[feichter33]

The Wallstedt/Askarov debate is interesting. I find it's a neck-and-neck thing.

Askarov is s more 'upright' goalie in terms of his core. It lends itself to better sightlines and reading of the play. His reactions are a bit more patient as he spends more time on his feet. His butterfly is also not as wide as Wallstedt on initial drop but he uses very short agile pushes to adjust and is very capable of moving to a wider butterfly kick.

Wallstedt in my viewings is a very new school drop-first goalie. He uses the RVH move around his posts more then most and is fantastic at covering distances on his knees. He uses a lower wider stance that helps develop that explosiveness. His hands are also a little more loose and not locked into his body on movements as much as Askarov. Comes off looking more athletic then Yaro who plays more controlled and systematic.

Imo...pick your poison. Both project Fleury/Price level right now. Different ways of getting to the same point.

 

[Giovi]

Off the top of my head, Vasilievsky, Price, Fleury, Luongo all played in the NHL within 2 years of being drafted. There’s something to be said by a goalie historian other than me about these names and their impact toward pushing the envelope & prototyping the modern goaltender. That’s near what I was getting at with the idea that the game may be evolving and a goaltender like Askarov may set a new standard.

Also Rask/Lehtonen had a cup of coffee too at 20... but you’re right to be skeptic as the average age of a starter entering the league is something like 24.7 years old. Average age of a defenseman is around 23.6, and a forward at 22 iirc

Depends on teams strategies for development with goaltenders but players who are elite and can make an impact find their way

Isn't he under contract in the KHL for the next 2 seasons?

Drafting goaltenders in the top half of the first round is risky enough, imo. Drafting a Russian high in the first comes with its own added peril, given you never know when or if they intend to come over.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Argument against picking a goalie in the top 10(or the first round at all for that matter):
If the goalie is everything you want him to be, you have to pay him like an elite goalie, which isn't the best use of cap resources. It's an easy way to get into cap trouble.

 

[ColbyChaos]

Argument against picking a goalie in the top 10(or the first round at all for that matter):
If the goalie is everything you want him to be, you have to pay him like an elite goalie, which isn't the best use of cap resources. It's an easy way to get into cap trouble.

That applies for any player thats like a boston fan saying not picking Barzal, Chabot, Conner would be good since it would have screwed their team cap wise.. The vast majority of goalies are paid 6 million which is a fair rate. The only goalies that make more than the 6-7 range are lundqvist, bob, and price, and all of three players got it in their UFA period

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

That applies for any player. The vast majority of goalies are paid 6 million which is a fair rate. The only goalies that make more than the 6-7 range are lundqvist, bob, and price, and all of three players got it in their UFA period

Vasilevskiy is making 8.5. Do you want to commit that much to a goalie?