Prospect Info: 2020 Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 for March

StevenToddIves

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2020 Devils-centric Mock Draft 2.0 for March

First off, I based the draft order on winning percentage. This has been discussed by multiple prominent hockey writers, and would also be good for the Devils in that they would keep the #6 (NJ) and #10 (ARI) picks, as well as retaining Vancouver’s top pick at #17.

Again, this is not a draft ranking, but rather a mock draft created by judging consensus ratings of prospects, then combining them with organizational draft tendencies and needs. The draft lottery is not taken into account, though if any of you had any questions about how the top of the draft might go in the event of any possible lottery combination, I’d be glad to answer them on this thread.

1 Detroit LW Alex Lafreniere, Rimouski QMJHL the complete package — a truly elite combo of vision/scoring/compete level/athleticism rarely seen and ready to make an NHL impact right away.
2 Ottawa C Quinton Byfield, Sudbury OHL the best pure athlete in the draft is 6’5-215 with elite skating and offensive tools, his talent ceiling is almost immeasurable -- like a Lindros/Eichel hybrid.
3 Ottawa RD Jamie Drysdale, Erie OHL a dream scenario for the Senators, as they get the top center and top defenseman in a stacked draft class back-to-back; compares nicely to Calder candidate Cale Makar.
4 Los Angeles C/LW Tim Stutzle, Mannheim DEL the Kings add to an already stacked prospect pool with this electrifying offensive talent. His skating is elite, while his hands and passing ability can only be described as “remarkable”. Destined to challenge Leon Draisaitl as the best German-born player in NHL history.
5 Anaheim RW Alexander Holtz, Djurgardens SHL Anaheim loves to draft big kids and out of Sweden; Holtz is the Patrick Laine of the 2020 class — his shot is just ridiculous and his all-around game is extremely advanced.
6 New Jersey Devils C Marco Rossi, Ottawa OHL I’ve been connecting Rossi to the Devils for quite awhile — they have certainly seen tons of him with virtually half of their prospects developing for a juggernaut 67’s squad. Rossi is the best two-way center in the draft — and there’s quite a few good ones. He’s a rare mix: gritty and dynamic with a hockey IQ that is as good as it gets.
7 Buffalo LW/RW Lucas Raymond, Frolunda SHL the Sabres have been thus far unable to surround superstar C Jack Eichel with wingers of his skill level, but Raymond is a dazzling puck handler and playmaker with lightning in his skates. Has not produced to expectation in 2019-20, but his skills/style are comparable to a young Mitch Marner.
8 Montreal LW Cole Perfetti, Saginaw OHL Montreal does not score enough and Perfetti is the cure; his hands are like a pair of magic wands and his hockey sense is second to none in the class of 2020. Matches the skill of a Claude Giroux, but plays with a higher compete level and a superior hockey IQ.
9 Chicago C Anton Lundell, HIFK FIN the Blackhawks won’t have Toews forever, and while Dylan Strome has rounded out as a very good NHL 2C, Lundell has the upside to be a top-line pivot. Lundell mixes ideal size and skill with a tremendous shot and a mature, intelligent 200-foot game.
10 New Jersey Devils LD Jake Sanderson, US-NTDP USHL I’ve been connecting Jack Quinn to this pick for awhile, but I’m veering off as Sanderson’s stock has risen even more sharply in the past months. Sanderson has many desirable Ryan Suter-like qualities — he simply excels in every single aspect of the game and lacks any flaw whatsoever. He’s the best shut-down D in the draft and also adds a capability of 40-50 point NHL seasons, he’s an all-situation minute-muncher who will be the bedrock of any NHL blueline.
11 Minnesota C Connor Zary, Kamloops WHL new Wild GM Bill Guerin needs to restock a prospect pool which is strong at LW and lacking everywhere else after a season-plus of gross mismanagement by ex-GM Paul Fenton. Zary is a two-way force who plays at a terrifically high tempo with a more dynamic offensive game than many give him credit for — a future top 6 NHL center.
12 Winnipeg C/RW Dawson Mercer, Drummondville QMJHL the Jets like them both tough and skilled and Mercer is that kid you can slot anywhere in the line-up. His versatility allows him to shine up the middle or on the wing, while his mix of high-octane offense and relentless defense will allow him to excel on a checking or scoring line. This kid can do it all — great shooter, great passer and a scintillating stickhandler with a physical edge and tremendous compete level.
13 NY Rangers LW/RW Rodion Amirov, Salavat Ufa, KHL in recent years, no organization has scouted Russia better than the Rangers, who can add a goal-scoring winger with mesmerizing puck skills and huge scoring upside. Amirov may take three to four years to arrive in North America, but he’ll be worth the wait.
14 Florida RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa OHL if there’s a Mark Stone in the 2020 draft it’s Quinn, who has rocketed up draft rankings all year thanks to insane goal-scoring ability (topping the 50 plateau for the 67s), tremendous vision and a flawless 200-foot game.
15 Columbus LW Dylan Holloway, Wisconsin NCAA no one plays a Tortorella-style game like Holloway, a big-bodied banger who hits everything in sight. But Holloway compliments this with the skating and offensive skills to play on top lines with high-caliber offensive talent; an uncommon combination which will see him go in the top 20 come draft day.
16 Calgary RW Noel Gunler, Lulea SHL the Flames have long-sought a RW to compliment their top-line duo of Monahan/Gaudreau, and hope they find it here. Gunler is extraordinarily talented with elite skating/shooting/puckhandling skills, but his compete level and 200-foot game have come into enough question that he drops behind RWs Mercer and Quinn come draft day.
17 New Jersey Devils LW/C Jan Mysak, Hamilton OHL the Devils need goal-scoring wingers in the prospect pool, and Mysak is dynamic in that respect. The best Czech available in 2020 has elite goal-scoring acumen to add to incredible wheels and astounding puck-skills. Mysak missed the cut-off for the 2021 draft by only one day, and has incalculable development potential to one day be a top-line sniper at the NHL level.
18 Nashville G Yaroslav Askarov, Ska-St. Petersburg VHL hailed by many as the best goaltending prospect since Carey Price, Askarov has struggled some in the 2019-20 campaign but his potential remains sky-high. The Predators are built from the defense on out, but are facing goaltender questions with an aging Rinne and a middling but unspectacular Saros between the pipes.
19 Carolina LD Jeremie Poirier, Saint John QMJHL the Hurricanes showed a willingness to draft all-offense blueliners in recent years, notably with selections of Honka and Fensore in 2019. Poirier possesses more offensive upside than any defender in the class of 2020 this side of Drysdale, but his defensive game and compete level both require tremendous improvements.
20 Edmonton RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia OHL the Oilers seek fast, skilled wingers to flank superstar centers McDavid and Draisaitl, and the son of ex-NHL-er Yanic surely fits this bill. He’s a sharp-shooting sniper with elite skates who can turn any defensive miscue into a goal-scoring opportunity, but he needs to work on his play without the puck.
21 Ottawa C Hendrix Lapierre, Chicoutimi OHL a center with top-line upside; his passing vision and acuity as good as anyone in the draft, Lapierre would be talked about as a top-10 possibility were it not for multiple concussions which derailed his draft year. With a trio of first round picks, the Senators can afford to take a chance on this player’s lofty potential.
22 Dallas C/RW Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan QMJHL the Stars are painfully thin on young, high-end forward talents and Bourque certainly fits that bill. Though not big at 5’10-170 and not especially fleet of foot, every other aspect of Bourque’s game is a plus — he’s an incredible shooter, passer and puck-handler with incredible attention to detail in every aspect of his game.
23 NY Rangers LD Shakir Mukhamadullin, Salavat Ufa KHL here I have the Rangers once again leaning on their Russian scouts, this time to grab a potential boom-pick. Mukhamadullin combines a projectable 6’3-180 frame with a bomb of a shot and a penchant for physical play; though perhaps several years from the NHL, the Rangers have a stocked prospect pool and can afford to be patient with their picks.
24 Minnesota LD Kaiden Guhle, Prince Albert WHL there is reason to believe that the Wild would take Sanderson at #11, but in this scenario they don’t get him and instead bolster a weak prospect pool at D with Guhle, a formidable shut-down rearguard boasting a powerful physical edge and a cannon-like shot from the point.
25 Philadelphia C Ty Similanic, US-NTDP USHL the Flyers drafted heavily out of the US high school ranks in recent drafts, and Similanic gives them another reason to. The top center for the premier development program in the world combines a big body with elite skating ability and a rocket of a shot. He projects to a dangerous and physical two-way mid-6 NHL pivot.
26 San Jose RW/C Seth Jarvis, Portland WHL following years of competing for the Cup and trading off draft picks, the Sharks are absolutely desperate for skill all throughout their prospect pipeline. Skill is what Jarvis offers in spades — he’s an elite goal-scoring and passing talent whose sheer sneakiness is second to only Perfetti in this draft class; tore up the WHL for 98 points in just 56 games.
27 Colorado RW Sam Colangelo, Chicago USHL my first “shocker” of the 2020 draft is not without explanation. The Avs are overflowing with talent both at the NHL and prospect level, but if they have any need at all it is for complimentary scorers. Colangelo boasts an uncommon mix of size (6’2-205) with terrific skating, passing vision and shooting. He’s a raw prospect in need of development, but he tore up the USHL this year and has been compared to Blake Wheeler for his scarcely-found mix of tools.
28 Vegas RD Braden Schneider, Brandon WHL the best shut-down defenseman this side of Sanderson available in 2020, Schneider is a terrific skater with lights-out outlet passing and an intimidating physical edge. His offensive upside is likely in the 30-45 point range, but he’s the perfect guy for your top pairing with an offensive minded LD, much like a young Brent Seabrook was for Duncan Keith.
29 Washington C/LW Marat Khusnutdinov, SKA-1946 MHL most people not only won’t be able to pronounce his name and many won’t recognize it, but this kid could be the best player to come out of Russia this year. Flashy and lightning quick with explosive offensive abilities, Khusnutdinov plays with a fire and brashness. He’s a high-compete, 200-foot player with high-octane scoring chops to match, he’s dynamite to watch and he’s deserving of a first round selection.
30 St. Louis RD Justin Barron, Halifax QMJHL top-pairing RD are premium commodities in today’s NHL, making Barron a risk worth taking. Why the risk? Going into this season, Barron was the consensus #2 D after only Jamie Drysdale, but his draft year was borderline disastrous. After a rough start to the season, blood clots slowed him down and Barron was never truly at 100%. The reason you draft him, however, is what he’s capable of when healthy — Barron is a 6’1-195 two-way force who skates quite well and is willing to play a physical game when need be. He’s an all-situation, minute-munching stud.
31 Anaheim LW Jake Neighbours, Edmonton WHL here’s a kid who plays a power game but compliments it with a great deal of skill. Though not huge at 5’11-195, Neighbors plays a prototypical power game and backs down to absolutely no one. When not crashing creases and mixing it up with the opposition, Neighbours will wow you with elite vision and passing skills off the wing.

Any questions? Disagree? Agree? Let’s escape all the depressing pandemic talk and discuss the hockey draft on this thread. Everyone be safe out there!
 

StevenToddIves

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Rossi, Sanderson, and Mysak would be one hell of a haul for the devils.

The Devils pick three times in a draft class with an outstanding top 8 and an excellent top 20. There are several combination trios which would be cause for celebration. My thought process shook out with Rossi, Sanderson and Mysak. But it could just as easily be Drysdale/Lundell/Quinn or Stutzle/Mercer/Schneider. At least we all have a big, fun draft day to look forward to... whenever it is.
 
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njdevils1982

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The Devils pick three times in a draft class with an outstanding top 8 and an excellent top 20. There are several combination trios which would be cause for celebration. My thought process shook out with Rossi, Sanderson and Mysak. But it could just as easily be Drysdale/Lundell/Quinn or Stutzle/Mercer/Schneider. At least we all have a big, fun draft day to look forward to... whenever it is.

well said man
 
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Jason MacIsaac

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Not a fan of Sanderson and Mysak at those picks.

Sanderson is just such a gamble that he produces more like a McAvoy. If he falls to 17 then I would gamble. I understand his skillset is very good but we cant miss on these picks, I prefer taking prospects that pass both the eye test and the analytics test.

Mysak is a red flag prospect for me. He is scoring the OHL due to blazing speed and scoring ability. It is the same question every prospect who have played in Binghamton this year is being asked, so much of their success is derived from having the puck on their stick far too much, when they go pro they need to learn to play offensively without the puck. Boqvist and McLeod are struggling with it now. Perreault is the better pick IMO.
 
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Nubmer6

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Not a fan of Sanderson and Mysak at those picks.

Sanderson is just such a gamble that he produces more like a McAvoy. If he falls to 17 then I would gamble. I understand his skillset is very good but we cant miss on these picks, I prefer taking prospects that pass both the eye test and the analytics test.

Mysak is a red flag prospect for me. He is scoring the OHL due to blazing speed and scoring ability. It is the same question every prospect who have played in Binghamton this year is being asked, so much of their success is derived from having the puck on their stick far too much, when they go pro they need to learn to play offensively without the puck. Boqvist and McLeod are struggling with it now. Perreault is the better pick IMO.
Wouldn't that be the case with most prospects? They're going to be the stars of their teams and have the puck on their sticks most of the time. And conversely, If that's not the case, their success could be attributed to being on a stacked team.

I dunno. This draft prospecting is all voodoo to me.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Not a fan of Sanderson and Mysak at those picks.

Sanderson is just such a gamble that he produces more like a McAvoy. If he falls to 17 then I would gamble. I understand his skillset is very good but we cant miss on these picks, I prefer taking prospects that pass both the eye test and the analytics test.

Mysak is a red flag prospect for me. He is scoring the OHL due to blazing speed and scoring ability. It is the same question every prospect who have played in Binghamton this year is being asked, so much of their success is derived from having the puck on their stick far too much, when they go pro they need to learn to play offensively without the puck. Boqvist and McLeod are struggling with it now. Perreault is the better pick IMO.

First off, know I respect your (and all) opinions that I debate on these threads. But we're far apart philosophically on a few things here, and I suppose I'll entertain you by addressing them.

1)No way on earth Sanderson falls to 17. I think there are two players who could crack the "Big 8" of Lafreniere/Byfield/Stutzle/Rossi/Drysdale/Holtz/Raymond/Perfetti -- Anton Lundell and Jake Sanderson. The reason is that Lundell and Sanderson are the opposite of gambles. With Lundell, you know you're getting a big-bodied, all-around 2nd line center; the question is: does he have the offensive upside to be an NHL 1C? With Sanderson, you know you're getting a slick-skating, shut-down defenseman with great size, smarts and no discernible flaws; the question is: are you getting a 30-point defensive-minded guy, or are you getting the next Ryan Suter? But both of these players have extremely high floors, making them very safe picks. Possibly a team will see enough upside in Sanderson to take him as high as the #6-#8 range. But I can't see any permutation where he falls below the #12 overall pick.

2)I'm going to hold onto my assertion that, while analytics are a useful tool in comparing similarly-styled players, it is a mistake to hold them in the same regard as traditional scouting tools when evaluating draft-eligible prospects. Again, I'll go to the example of Lucas Raymond -- playing on an extremely competitive Frolunda team as a teenager in the SHL, all of his statistical output was next to nothing. Raymond was deployed as a spare part, plain and simple. But there's no world where he's not a top 9 pick in the 2020 draft because, using traditional scouting tools, you can see he is an incredibly dynamic offensive force with incredible upside. As far as Sanderson goes, traditional scouting will tell you he grades as not just good, but excellent across the board. Skating: excellent, size: excellent, shot: excellent, passing: excellent, hockey IQ: excellent, physicality: excellent, defensive play/positioning: excellent, puck handling: excellent. His decision making is that of an experienced NHL pro, and over the course of the 2019-20 season he became more aggressive in the offensive zone -- rocketing him up draft boards with the expectation that he can produce points at the professional level. In a nutshell: an amateur player who scores less because he is defensively accountable should NOT be seen as a detriment for his professional potential.

3)You're someone who highly regards birthdate when evaluating prospects, and Mysak is one of the youngest players in the entire 2020 draft class -- and he's already a deadly scorer at the CHL level. His skating and shooting are absolutely high-end, and he plays with a non-stop motor; very admirable compete level. He produced amazing numbers for someone who came to the OHL mid-season from Europe -- where he put up excellent numbers in the Czech league playing against grown men as a 17 year old. I don't think you would argue that, next year at Hamilton in his "18 year old" season, Mysak is a very good bet to top 50+ goals.
I get that Perreault is also a younger (17 year old) prospect, and he also has high-end shooting and skating ability, so I'm not going to argue that he would be a good pick at #17. But I will argue that Mysak would be a bad pick. My choice actually came down to Mysak v. Perreault, but I went with Mysak because of questions about Perreault's compete level and 200-foot game. Also -- since this was a stated issue for you -- most experts would agree that Mysak is a far better player "without the puck" than Perreault. That being said, I'd still be thrilled if the Devils took Perreault with the Vancouver pick, I think he has huge upside... though slightly shy of Mysak.
 

StevenToddIves

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Wouldn't that be the case with most prospects? They're going to be the stars of their teams and have the pick on their sticks most of the time. And conversely, If that's not the case, their success could be attributed to being on a stacked team.

I dunno. This draft prospecting is all voodoo to me.

The analytics rank voodoo slightly above santeria.
 

longislanddevil

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Is it a pipe dream for Perfetti to fall out of the “elite 8” with two teams picking say Lundell and Sanderson ahead of him? Is Perfetti the most likely of those tiered prospects to slide just a tad? I would feel much better about this likelihood if the Arizona pick was 9 and not 10. With that said, if the Devils do take Sanderson or Quinn at 10, I would be pleased with either selection.

Rossi at 6...yes, please!! Let’s hope a team that finishes 7th to 15th doesn’t win a lottery ball. If the Devils dodge that scenario, we are guaranteed one of Stutzle/Drysdale/Rossi/Holtz if we do pick 6.
 
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Jason MacIsaac

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First off, know I respect your (and all) opinions that I debate on these threads. But we're far apart philosophically on a few things here, and I suppose I'll entertain you by addressing them.
Thank you, likewhile. I love reading your posts, especially because I don't get to see as many of the prospects as I have in the past and while it seems I have gone completely analytical, it really isn't the case. I take absolutely everything into consideration when I assess players. Also, you assume I only use counting stats when I talk about statistics. As I will mention later, when underlying stats are available as in the case with European prospects, I use them.

1)No way on earth Sanderson falls to 17. I think there are two players who could crack the "Big 8" of Lafreniere/Byfield/Stutzle/Rossi/Drysdale/Holtz/Raymond/Perfetti -- Anton Lundell and Jake Sanderson. The reason is that Lundell and Sanderson are the opposite of gambles. With Lundell, you know you're getting a big-bodied, all-around 2nd line center; the question is: does he have the offensive upside to be an NHL 1C? With Sanderson, you know you're getting a slick-skating, shut-down defenseman with great size, smarts and no discernible flaws; the question is: are you getting a 30-point defensive-minded guy, or are you getting the next Ryan Suter? But both of these players have extremely high floors, making them very safe picks. Possibly a team will see enough upside in Sanderson to take him as high as the #6-#8 range. But I can't see any permutation where he falls below the #12 overall pick.

I know Sanderson doesn't fall to 17, he will be the 2nd defensmen off the board and because of that I believe teams may overvalue him in an effort to get a top end defense prospect this season. When a player looks to have it all, size, skating, shot, passing and hockey sense you would hope his production would be higher on an U18 team where he was the only real option. This isn't like last year where York was going to get the prime minutes, Sanderson was given every opportunity to put up monster numbers. That leaves me wondering how strong his puck skills and offensive hockey sense are. This draft is so forward strong that you have a chance at 3 1st liners in the top 20. It isn't the one to be gambling on defensmen whose offense may translate to the pro game.

2)I'm going to hold onto my assertion that, while analytics are a useful tool in comparing similarly-styled players, it is a mistake to hold them in the same regard as traditional scouting tools when evaluating draft-eligible prospects. Again, I'll go to the example of Lucas Raymond -- playing on an extremely competitive Frolunda team as a teenager in the SHL, all of his statistical output was next to nothing. Raymond was deployed as a spare part, plain and simple. But there's no world where he's not a top 9 pick in the 2020 draft because, using traditional scouting tools, you can see he is an incredibly dynamic offensive force with incredible upside. As far as Sanderson goes, traditional scouting will tell you he grades as not just good, but excellent across the board. Skating: excellent, size: excellent, shot: excellent, passing: excellent, hockey IQ: excellent, physicality: excellent, defensive play/positioning: excellent, puck handling: excellent. His decision making is that of an experienced NHL pro, and over the course of the 2019-20 season he became more aggressive in the offensive zone -- rocketing him up draft boards with the expectation that he can produce points at the professional level. In a nutshell: an amateur player who scores less because he is defensively accountable should NOT be seen as a detriment for his professional potential.
I understand Raymonds circumstances, that's why underlying numbers are so good. They show that he is quite exceptional in the minutes played and drives play in the SHL at the age of 17. In regards to Sanderson, that is a misconception that playing good defense will affect your offensive numbers. The less you play in you end, the longer you have the puck in the offensive zone.

3)You're someone who highly regards birthdate when evaluating prospects, and Mysak is one of the youngest players in the entire 2020 draft class -- and he's already a deadly scorer at the CHL level. His skating and shooting are absolutely high-end, and he plays with a non-stop motor; very admirable compete level. He produced amazing numbers for someone who came to the OHL mid-season from Europe -- where he put up excellent numbers in the Czech league playing against grown men as a 17 year old. I don't think you would argue that, next year at Hamilton in his "18 year old" season, Mysak is a very good bet to top 50+ goals.
Birthdates are one of the many tools I use to evaluate a player. You are right Mysak is one of the youngest players in the draft. What you failed to mention is that Mysak looked pretty bad in many of the games he played in the OHL, he just happened to capitalize on a lot of his scoring chances, at an unsustainable rate. Over the course of a season when the sample size increases and his shooting% drops, I would expect a PPG out of him. Players like him just don't do it for me, because their whole game is revolved around transition speed on the rush. When I talk about play without the puck I am talking in the offensive zone. Can he produce of the cycle or when his feet aren't moving 100MPH. This takes 2 years in the AHL to retool and even then he may never get it.

I get that Perreault is also a younger (17 year old) prospect, and he also has high-end shooting and skating ability, so I'm not going to argue that he would be a good pick at #17. But I will argue that Mysak would be a bad pick. My choice actually came down to Mysak v. Perreault, but I went with Mysak because of questions about Perreault's compete level and 200-foot game. Also -- since this was a stated issue for you -- most experts would agree that Mysak is a far better player "without the puck" than Perreault. That being said, I'd still be thrilled if the Devils took Perreault with the Vancouver pick, I think he has huge upside... though slightly shy of Mysak.
What I like about Perreault are some of the knocks are as a result of playing in the CHL where all players extend their shifts. Perreault was said to be a poor skater until the top prospects game where overall he rated as the best skater, over Foudy. When Perreault gets to the pro game I would expect his shift length to drop substantially and his intensity and pace to increase. Changing pace doesn't seem to be an issue with him, something Mysak likely hasn't learned how to do. On top of that, Perrault has a lethal shot but the metrics seem to indicate he is passing much more this season. He is a multi-threat offensive player, with skills that should have him top 10.

 

Jason MacIsaac

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Is it a pipe dream for Perfetti to fall out of the “elite 8” with two teams picking say Lundell and Sanderson ahead of him? Is Perfetti the most likely of those tiered prospects to slide just a tad? I would feel much better about this likelihood if the Arizona pick was 9 and not 10. With that said, if the Devils do take Sanderson or Quinn at 10, I would be pleased with either selection.

Rossi at 6...yes, please!! Let’s hope a team that finishes 7th to 15th doesn’t win a lottery ball. If the Devils dodge that scenario, we are guaranteed one of Stutzle/Drysdale/Rossi/Holtz if we do pick 6.
Yes, he skating isn't elite for a smaller player. much like Marner's skating in his draft season. He can bring it to an above average level over the next two seasons.

6.) Rossi
10.) Perfetti
17.) Perreault

1st potential 1st line offensive threats.
 
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devilsblood

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Mysak is a red flag prospect for me. He is scoring the OHL due to blazing speed and scoring ability. It is the same question every prospect who have played in Binghamton this year is being asked, so much of their success is derived from having the puck on their stick far too much, when they go pro they need to learn to play offensively without the puck. Boqvist and McLeod are struggling with it now. Perreault is the better pick IMO.
I have little to no handle on this years draft class, but in general if you give me a prospect with blazing speed and scoring ability, I like that prospect.

I'm also with STI in giving Mysak more value as a young prospect, AND I give him another boost for only playing in the OHL half a season. Have to imagine he wasn't inserted directly onto the top line or top pp.

Edit: Though it should be noted STI is incorrect above, Mysak has a June 24th b-day, draft cutoff day is in Sept.

Sanderson is actually a bit younger with a July 8th b-day.
 
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Jason MacIsaac

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I have little to no handle on this years draft class, but in general if you give me a prospect with blazing speed and scoring ability, I like that prospect.

I'm also with STI in giving Mysak more value as a young prospect, AND I give him another boost for only playing in the OHL half a season. Have to imagine he wasn't inserted directly onto the top line or top pp.
STI isn't the one giving value based on age, he believes late 01's should be rated the same as 02's even though they played against 01's their whole career.

That's fine if you like that combination however I am sick of prospects with great tools with no idea how to play hockey at the pro level. First you have to invest 2 years in them at the AHL level "if" they buy in. I would love, for once, to have a prospect who has the hockey sense to get open in the offensive zone and the ability to finish. One who naturally can find soft spots in coverage and exploit them. We have drafted nobody who plays like that. Luckily Foote is very good at it.
 

devilsblood

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STI isn't the one giving value based on age, he believes late 01's should be rated the same as 02's even though they played against 01's their whole career.

That's fine if you like that combination however I am sick of prospects with great tools with no idea how to play hockey at the pro level. First you have to invest 2 years in them at the AHL level "if" they buy in. I would love, for once, to have a prospect who has the hockey sense to get open in the offensive zone and the ability to finish. One who naturally can find soft spots in coverage and exploit them. We have drafted nobody who plays like that. Luckily Foote is very good at it.
He mentioned it in his OP, and then mentioned it again in his response to your post, so maybe he doesn't, but he did mention it twice, I do though.

I also think "how to play hockey" is a bit broad in critiquing our prospects. Anderson is a well rounded player, McLeod is well versed defensively, Bastian is a smart player, what these guys don't have is a high end goal scoring ability. Is that a lack of offensive awareness? Maybe, but lack of pure goal scoring skills looks to be an issue with each of these guys. McLeod for sure seems to have poor mechanics.
 

Jason MacIsaac

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He mentioned it in his OP, and then mentioned it again in his response to your post, so maybe he doesn't, but he did mention it twice, I do though.

I also think "how to play hockey" is a bit broad in critiquing our prospects. Anderson is a well rounded player, McLeod is well versed defensively, Bastian is a smart player, what these guys don't have is a high end goal scoring ability. Is that a lack of offensive awareness? Maybe, but lack of pure goal scoring skills looks to be an issue with each of these guys. McLeod for sure seems to have poor mechanics.
In previous posts he doesn't want to compare Schneider's stats to other 01's birthdays so I just assume it was a part that was neglected.

This isn't my words, it is Dennehy's words.

"I think an understanding of the structure of the game. He's always had an ability, I mean, he's got a big-time motor, he's got huge compete. He's able to get in and out of situations with the puck that not a lot of players can. Coming in, there wasn't a lot of structure to his game. He had the puck so much that he had to learn how to play without it a little bit."

"So that's been a big growth area for him, is his understanding, how to play without the puck. Then it's also putting himself in a position to either go get [the puck] himself or support his defenseman or his line mates to get it back. I can only imagine, I wasn't able to watch him at the junior hockey level, but he must've had the puck the entire time."


Mysak will need a lot of development, I believe Perreault is closer to the NHL. I'll stand by that.
 

devilsblood

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In previous posts he doesn't want to compare Schneider's stats to other 01's birthdays so I just assume it was a part that was neglected.

This isn't my words, it is Dennehy's words.

"I think an understanding of the structure of the game. He's always had an ability, I mean, he's got a big-time motor, he's got huge compete. He's able to get in and out of situations with the puck that not a lot of players can. Coming in, there wasn't a lot of structure to his game. He had the puck so much that he had to learn how to play without it a little bit."

"So that's been a big growth area for him, is his understanding, how to play without the puck. Then it's also putting himself in a position to either go get [the puck] himself or support his defenseman or his line mates to get it back. I can only imagine, I wasn't able to watch him at the junior hockey level, but he must've had the puck the entire time."


Mysak will need a lot of development, I believe Perreault is closer to the NHL. I'll stand by that.
He has a ton of int'l experience as well as playing significant portions of two seasons in the Czech men's league. Given that he has yet to turn 18, I find the latter pretty impressive, but if he has all this experience and still doesn't know how to play the game? Well I would see that as a concern.
 

Jason MacIsaac

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Jan 13, 2004
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He has a ton of int'l experience as well as playing significant portions of two seasons in the Czech men's league. Given that he has yet to turn 18, I find the latter pretty impressive, but if he has all this experience and still doesn't know how to play the game? Well I would see that as a concern.
I maybe completely wrong, I would prefer pick a player who doesn't rely 100% off transition offense. That one and done style just doesn't win games.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Thank you, likewhile. I love reading your posts, especially because I don't get to see as many of the prospects as I have in the past and while it seems I have gone completely analytical, it really isn't the case. I take absolutely everything into consideration when I assess players. Also, you assume I only use counting stats when I talk about statistics. As I will mention later, when underlying stats are available as in the case with European prospects, I use them.



I know Sanderson doesn't fall to 17, he will be the 2nd defensmen off the board and because of that I believe teams may overvalue him in an effort to get a top end defense prospect this season. When a player looks to have it all, size, skating, shot, passing and hockey sense you would hope his production would be higher on an U18 team where he was the only real option. This isn't like last year where York was going to get the prime minutes, Sanderson was given every opportunity to put up monster numbers. That leaves me wondering how strong his puck skills and offensive hockey sense are. This draft is so forward strong that you have a chance at 3 1st liners in the top 20. It isn't the one to be gambling on defensmen whose offense may translate to the pro game.


I understand Raymonds circumstances, that's why underlying numbers are so good. They show that he is quite exceptional in the minutes played and drives play in the SHL at the age of 17. In regards to Sanderson, that is a misconception that playing good defense will affect your offensive numbers. The less you play in you end, the longer you have the puck in the offensive zone.


Birthdates are one of the many tools I use to evaluate a player. You are right Mysak is one of the youngest players in the draft. What you failed to mention is that Mysak looked pretty bad in many of the games he played in the OHL, he just happened to capitalize on a lot of his scoring chances, at an unsustainable rate. Over the course of a season when the sample size increases and his shooting% drops, I would expect a PPG out of him. Players like him just don't do it for me, because their whole game is revolved around transition speed on the rush. When I talk about play without the puck I am talking in the offensive zone. Can he produce of the cycle or when his feet aren't moving 100MPH. This takes 2 years in the AHL to retool and even then he may never get it.


What I like about Perreault are some of the knocks are as a result of playing in the CHL where all players extend their shifts. Perreault was said to be a poor skater until the top prospects game where overall he rated as the best skater, over Foudy. When Perreault gets to the pro game I would expect his shift length to drop substantially and his intensity and pace to increase. Changing pace doesn't seem to be an issue with him, something Mysak likely hasn't learned how to do. On top of that, Perrault has a lethal shot but the metrics seem to indicate he is passing much more this season. He is a multi-threat offensive player, with skills that should have him top 10.



While I appreciate the depth of your reasoning, I'll insist Sanderson is the direct opposite of a gamble -- his downside is as a two-way, mid-pairing, all-situations defenseman, while his upside is a top-pairing D very similar in style to Ryan Suter. I fail to see where this is, in any way, a gamble.

I also like Perreault, and I will not refute your arguments in favor of him. But I must insist that your arguments about Mysak are mostly ancillary on several levels. First off, I'm not sure where you got that he "looked pretty bad" in many of his OHL games. He started slowly I think in his first three or four games, but even so finished with 15 goals in just 22 games. He was dangerous on virtually every shift for about his last 15 games of the year. Though I would agree that Mysak's greatest strength is in transition, he's a deadly sniper who is accomplished at finding seams in the defense and exploiting them for goal-scoring opportunities. He's got a great combination of hands and puck-handling ability, and one of his foremost attributes is his ability to create his own shot. It is also not possible to shut Mysak down by keying on his shot, since he is also a terrific passer with excellent vision. The kid is an abject weapon in the offensive zone. And to say he's a one-dimensional scorer or offensive floater would also be false -- he's got a good 200-foot game and was an asset on the PK in both the Czech men's league (as a 17 year old!) and in the OHL. His forechecking game has also been lauded at length -- a ceaseless motor, great wheels and excellent anticipation combine to make him a demon in puck retrieval.

Again, I'm not saying taking Perreault would be a bad call, this isn't about comparison. It's just that I've watched a lot of Mysak this year, and the player you described bears only a cursory resemblance to the Mysak that I've been analyzing all year. If healthy, I don't see any way he does not light up the OHL next year, and he just has star potential at the NHL level.
 
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StevenToddIves

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I have little to no handle on this years draft class, but in general if you give me a prospect with blazing speed and scoring ability, I like that prospect.

I'm also with STI in giving Mysak more value as a young prospect, AND I give him another boost for only playing in the OHL half a season. Have to imagine he wasn't inserted directly onto the top line or top pp.

Edit: Though it should be noted STI is incorrect above, Mysak has a June 24th b-day, draft cutoff day is in Sept.

Sanderson is actually a bit younger with a July 8th b-day.

Thanks for the correction, I messed up the birthdate. And trust me on Mysak -- the kid is an enormous talent.
 

StevenToddIves

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STI isn't the one giving value based on age, he believes late 01's should be rated the same as 02's even though they played against 01's their whole career.

That's fine if you like that combination however I am sick of prospects with great tools with no idea how to play hockey at the pro level. First you have to invest 2 years in them at the AHL level "if" they buy in. I would love, for once, to have a prospect who has the hockey sense to get open in the offensive zone and the ability to finish. One who naturally can find soft spots in coverage and exploit them. We have drafted nobody who plays like that. Luckily Foote is very good at it.

This is precisely what Mysak excels in the offensive zone. If you don't want to just take my word for it (and you shouldn't), this is from Steve Kournianos -- one of the best in the biz:

Mysak has a knack for getting open and uses his top-end speed to outpace pressure. His footwork and straight-line skating are quite impressive, and his stride is long and clean. Mysak also displays a commanding on-ice presence and is a creative forward who can finish as well as he can set up linemates. Mysak has elite hands and a nasty shot-release combination on his wrist shot (just ask Yaroslav Askarov about that one). He was a bit more active finding space in the Extraliga than he has with Hamilton, but he still knows how to create his own shot and has proven he can score on the backhand with regularity.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Haven't gotten a good read on who the board likes most with our pick, but I just wanted to share that the head coach of the Ottawa 67s directly compared Rossi's game to that of Nico Hischier. Appreciate all work you're putting into this, @StevenToddIves!

I think Rossi will be the majority choice at #6, though if Stutzle or Drysdale also fell to that spot it would certainly make things interesting.

Thanks for the kind words, and I'd love to hear your comments on some of my sleeper prospects -- especially the Euro kids, who I'm pretty sure you watch more than I do.
 
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StevenToddIves

Registered User
May 18, 2013
10,376
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Brooklyn, NY
In previous posts he doesn't want to compare Schneider's stats to other 01's birthdays so I just assume it was a part that was neglected.

This isn't my words, it is Dennehy's words.

"I think an understanding of the structure of the game. He's always had an ability, I mean, he's got a big-time motor, he's got huge compete. He's able to get in and out of situations with the puck that not a lot of players can. Coming in, there wasn't a lot of structure to his game. He had the puck so much that he had to learn how to play without it a little bit."

"So that's been a big growth area for him, is his understanding, how to play without the puck. Then it's also putting himself in a position to either go get [the puck] himself or support his defenseman or his line mates to get it back. I can only imagine, I wasn't able to watch him at the junior hockey level, but he must've had the puck the entire time."


Mysak will need a lot of development, I believe Perreault is closer to the NHL. I'll stand by that.

Just curious -- is this Mark Dennehy from the Devils organization?

Also, I'm going to say that Mysak is far closer to the NHL just because his 200-foot game allows him to slot up and down the line-up, and he's also a huge asset on the PK. Perreault's major flaw (and why he's not a universal top 15 pick) is that he can slack defensively and in compete level -- no NHL coach is going to play a youngster who is lagging in these areas. And Mysak is above-average defensively and has a tremendous compete level -- qualities which often make coaches more tolerant of natural rookie mistakes.

Don't get me wrong -- we're talking about a pair of 17 year old kids, neither of whom are a threat to make an NHL line-up for 2020-21. But I think Mysak could get a long look as early as 2021-22 and certainly 2022-23, while Perreault to me is at least three years away.
 

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