2020 CFHF Prospect Ranking #9
- Thread starter Dack
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Tkachuk Norris
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2012
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Gawdin. Other prospects only hope to get to where he already is. And he was a 4th round pick so it’s not like he came out of no where.
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I went with Francis, but it was tough, because Kinvall, Gawdin, and Chech are all in that same range for me (and it's hard to justify a second goalie in our top 10, especially given our goalie history)
Johnny Hoxville
The Return of a Legend
Would Lafreniere be our top prospect?
Cuz if he would, how is the reason he was even any good not be the clear choice here?
Zagidulin
Cuz if he would, how is the reason he was even any good not be the clear choice here?
Zagidulin
Johnny Hoxville
The Return of a Legend
Ya, have'd to agree. Hopefully he can learn the other side a bit and he'll climb the rankings pretty quick.
Mazatt
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- Apr 30, 2019
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Mazatt
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Well when it's indicative of the barriers to success and hurdles he has to cross to become an NHLer, yeah it's something you have to consider. Purely offensive defenseman are going to have limited roles in the NHL, but also I never suggested he didn't have offensive impact.
Really, the question has always been his defense and he showed zero ability to defend at a level novice coaches would expect. That doesn't take away from the fact he can score or produce offensively, but it sure as hell raises questions on if he should be ahead of more polished players with higher NHL potential and current upside.
It's not just the one clip, but that clip encapsulates the point. He is an amazing offensive guy, but puts almost 0 effort into the defensive zone... as a defenseman. Like, in 12 games this year, he has 11 points, and is -7. Last year he had 53 points, and was -25 in 64 games. The year before that, he played 61 games, had 21 points, and was a -41. Like, he's vastly improved his offense to nearly ppg levels, which is great. But until he rounds out his defensive game, he shouldn't be touching our top 10 prospects list when you still have D-men with offensive flair who are better defensively like Kinnvall, or a guy about to push the NHL like Gawdin, or even a guy who is defensively sound and starting to blow up offensively like Ryan Francis.
Johnny Hoxville
The Return of a Legend
I’m on board with everything you said except the top 10 part. I think purely offensive elite dmen can absolutely be top organizational prospects, depending on how high that ceiling is. Take Adam Fox example, Poirier is a lot like him. For him, he needs to continue to show how good he is to earn that label, much like Fox did. But no question, Poirier needs to address his defensive side of the puck.
Well, it's not that he couldn't be top 10. It's the fact that he'd be top 10 instead of 2-3 guys who could make serious NHL pushes in the next year or two, while Poirier is still a few more years out. When I think of top prospects, I'm thinking of guys who are close to (or are) NHL ready, and able to make an impact (so not necessarily 4th line "play 10 minutes of ES time and done" types). I believe that Poirier will make the NHL, but I feel like it might be a bit longer than others think when we still have Kinnvall and Gawdin in that prospect list (I like Ryan Francis, and would put him third, but depending on how this year/next year plays out, him and Poirier are definitely fighting eachother for that spot on the prospects list).
Well I would never really rank guys like Gawdin very high. It’s very likely that he’s an NHL’er, but what’s the upside? Most likely a bottom 6 guy? That’s nothing to write home about.
At the end of the day my philosophy is skill plays. Now obviously that’s not always true (see Ho-Sang, Schremp, etc.). But the potential alone with Poirier warrants him being ahead of Gawdin.
The best way I can explain my voting in these polls is comparing it to an expected payoff calculation. And I just think using that it favours Poirier.
FWIW I really don’t mind any of Kinnvall, Francis, Nikolayev, or Poirier here as I like all of their upside.
At the end of the day my philosophy is skill plays. Now obviously that’s not always true (see Ho-Sang, Schremp, etc.). But the potential alone with Poirier warrants him being ahead of Gawdin.
The best way I can explain my voting in these polls is comparing it to an expected payoff calculation. And I just think using that it favours Poirier.
FWIW I really don’t mind any of Kinnvall, Francis, Nikolayev, or Poirier here as I like all of their upside.
Dack
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- Jun 16, 2014
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Kinvall is 23, he should be leagues better defensively than 18 year old Poirier. I think Poirier is a disaster defensively but at this point his upside is immense compared to just about everyone else here, when the guy has the puck on his stick he reminds me of Subban. Great hands, good shot, tries to do too much sometimes but all together an offensive dynamo. His defense and effort on defense are both worrying as not only does he suck but he doesn't seem like he cares that he sucks at defense, but his coaches and teammates have said he's improving and he's super young so he has a lot of time to do it. I'm going with him at this point because I think his upside however unlikely is very high.
As excited as I am about Ryan Francis playing well so far, he has 15 points in 12 games as a forward in the same league where Poirier has 11 in 12 as a d man, and he's an even more negative player so far (his team has had awful goaltending to be fair). Gawdin to me is a potential 4th liner, he has value but I swing for upside first and then fill in the rest.
As excited as I am about Ryan Francis playing well so far, he has 15 points in 12 games as a forward in the same league where Poirier has 11 in 12 as a d man, and he's an even more negative player so far (his team has had awful goaltending to be fair). Gawdin to me is a potential 4th liner, he has value but I swing for upside first and then fill in the rest.
Tkachuk Norris
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- Jun 22, 2012
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sure but people said the same thing about Giordano, Kulak, Ferland, Byron etc. And then we placed 10 guys above them because of potential and the majority has meager AHL success. Our board has underrated the actual NHL calibre players for as long as far as I can remember
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Kipper933
Remember the Kipper
Flames Fanatic
Mediocre
Gawdin, Kinvall and Kuznetsov are all pretty close to even for me here. Went with Gawdin just for being closest to NHL ready.
Bounces R Way
Registered User
FlamesNation has Kinvall as the Flames' #14 ranked prospect. They are doing a top 20 like us. They do mention he could climb fairly quickly if he continues putting up the numbers he is currently though.
Voted Ruzicka initially but then went Gawdin. Not a high ceiling but he's got the qualities on and off the ice to be a decent bottom 6 player. RHS ++
Voted Ruzicka initially but then went Gawdin. Not a high ceiling but he's got the qualities on and off the ice to be a decent bottom 6 player. RHS ++
Im not going to go back to the in time to fact check all four of Giordano, Kulak, Ferland and Byron, but CFHF 2017 prospect rankings:
1. Jankowski
2. Parsons
3. Andersson
4. Valimaki
5. Kylington
6. Gillies
7. Fox
8. Dube
9. Mangiapane
10. Foo
11. Kulak
12. Klimchuk
I don’t know about you, but picking skill over certainty didn’t age that poorly at all in this case. Jankowski (up until last year), Andersson, (likely) Valimaki, (arguably) Kylington if given a chance, Fox, Dube, and Mangiapane are all better players than Kulak. That’s 70% of the guys ranked ahead of him. And 2 of them were goalies which everyone knows are a crapshoot anyways. Seems to have worked out well to me (again in this one case), but I’m not going to spend a bunch of time going back and substantiating your claims, but in this case it’s fair to say that 70% of the guys ranked ahead of him have more than “meagre AHL success”.
If there’s one thing I’m willing to die on a hill for is skill gives you the best chance to play. Period. And if it doesn’t turn out you’ve ranked a bust who had a shot at being a game breaker over a bottom 6 dime-a-dozen player. Not the end of the world.
Again, it’s got to be a situation where you weigh the potential and likelihood of reaching the potential (I.e, expected payoff calculations in finance if you’re familiar). But I don’t see a huge difference in the makeup of prospect Kylington vs. Poirier.
Tkachuk Norris
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- Jun 22, 2012
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Ferland didn’t have skill? Kulak didn’t have skill? Giordano didn’t have skill? Those guys are all very skilled players. Like who has more skill than Ferland? Honestly probably no Flames prospect other that Gaudreau over the last 15 years.
Yet our fan base pegged him as a 4th loner cause he was physical and we ranked him out of our top ten AFTER he massacred vancouver in the playoffs. Because he was seen as a grinder.
we are doing the same thing with Gawdin. ‘He’s a 4th loner”. Why because he’s solid defensively and physical he only has the ceiling of a 4th liner? A guy who had a 120 point season, was the best player in the best line in the CHL (albeit as an overage) only has the potential of a 4th liner? Why does someone like Phillips have offensive potential but Gawdin doesn’t?
people were throwing Mangiapane and Dube in trades left right and centre for absolutely garbage players until this year because our fan base had pegged them as low potential assets for some reason.
You assume development is linear but for all we know Gawdin improves for the next 4 seasons and he becomes the next stud two way forward in our organization.
Our board likes flash, and perceived potential. Not actual potential. Very different things and I think you can see it play out in the difference between prospects like Gawdin, Phillips and Z. We love small skilled forwards, it’s like everyone else is destined to be a 4th liner.
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