Rumor: 2020-21 Trade Rumours and FA Part VII: Post-Trade Deadline

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Iceberg

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But what does he have to prove? Health is the only thing I could really think of.

We haven't gotten past the 2nd round yet. Not saying it's his fault, but as you move on the pressure increases.

Can he steal a game or two or three when we are being outplayed, against Vegas or Tampa? I know he did it monday, but can he do it in the playoffs?

So far, i'm incouraged by what he has shown, but need to see more before having the same confidence in him that you have.
 

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Then a lot goalies have a lot to prove then. Grubauer is basically just as good as Lehner yet he has "nothing to prove". Just such a weird narrative to push I guess.

Yes. They do.

I don't think there's anything weird about that. Out of 31 starters this year, only one guy gets to lift the Cup at the end. That means, yes, a lot of other goalies will have something to prove. Not ALL of them, but a lot of them.
 

Pokecheque

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Goalies in the National Hockey League that (arguably) have nothing to prove:

Marc-Andre Fleury
Andrei Vasilevskiy

That's...pretty much it. And I don't know if Fleury should be on this list--he has naysayers in his own organization. They tried to trade him this offseason, even offered to eat half the salary and were willing to take practically nothing in return.
 

The Moops

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I more worried about the health of our depth than I am of Gru's ability. We make the conference finals with Gru last year, maybe even farther. If we stay healthy we can take any team I think
 
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The Abusement Park

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We haven't gotten past the 2nd round yet. Not saying it's his fault, but as you move on the pressure increases.

Can he steal a game or two or three when we are being outplayed, against Vegas or Tampa? I know he did it monday, but can he do it in the playoffs?

So far, i'm incouraged by what he has shown, but need to see more before having the same confidence in him that you have.
I mean there are far more aspects of this team that need proving over Gru.
 

Iceberg

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Then a lot goalies have a lot to prove then. Grubauer is basically just as good as Lehner yet he has "nothing to prove". Just such a weird narrative to push I guess.

You can say Gru and Lehner are equal, but Vegas also have Fleury.

Pretty much all other teams have goaltending as a question mark (minus Tampa and Boston to some extend).
 

henchman21

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Goodness... Gru is not proven by any stretch. The 40 games he played this season were a career high. He's also posting career high numbers all around. He's also only had 23 total games in the playoffs in his whole career with some ups and downs (mostly up with the Avs). Plus he's had injury issues. Natural for some questions to come up on him.
 
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The Abusement Park

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So? Just because goaltending isn't the primary concern doesn't mean it isn't a concern at all.
I guess I just don't get the lack of confidence in Gru outside of health. I can understand the proven part and maybe I'm taking that as a lack of confidence. Outside of starting goaltending I 100% get the concern, but Gru has done enough here to prove he has the ability to win in the playoffs.
 

Pokecheque

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I guess I just don't get the lack of confidence in Gru outside of health. I can understand the proven part and maybe I'm taking that as a lack of confidence. Outside of starting goaltending I 100% get the concern, but Gru has done enough here to prove he has the ability to win in the playoffs.

Because he's a good goaltender, but he's not elite. As Henchy pointed out, the number of games he started this season (a truncated season, mind you) was a career high. He's never had this sort of workload before. And the sample size of his playoff performance is mostly good, but still not a huge amount of games.

I don't think he's done nearly enough to "prove" that he can win it all. Not yet. He's certainly done more than enough to earn the right to prove himself, yes, but he has not yet allayed all those concerns. There are still some flaws in his game that other, elite goaltenders don't necessarily have. His rebound control is average at best, and he still struggles a bit to track the puck through traffic. He's also a guy who relies a little more on athleticism as opposed to technique and raw talent. That's not to say he can't win it all--certainly if he's going to, it's going to be with a team like this that is elite offensively, defensively, and controls the puck well in most situations.

The Avs have done a brilliant job building a defensive system that works perfectly with their starting goaltender, Bednar even alluded to Grubauer knowing for the most part when and where defensive breakdowns were going to happen, and being prepared for them.

Far worse goaltenders have won it all (Niemi) so it's not the biggest concern, but of course it's a concern nonetheless.
 

John Mandalorian

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Because he's a good goaltender, but he's not elite. As Henchy pointed out, the number of games he started this season (a truncated season, mind you) was a career high. He's never had this sort of workload before. And the sample size of his playoff performance is mostly good, but still not a huge amount of games.

I don't think he's done nearly enough to "prove" that he can win it all. Not yet. He's certainly done more than enough to earn the right to prove himself, yes, but he has not yet allayed all those concerns. There are still some flaws in his game that other, elite goaltenders don't necessarily have. His rebound control is average at best, and he still struggles a bit to track the puck through traffic. He's also a guy who relies a little more on athleticism as opposed to technique and raw talent. That's not to say he can't win it all--certainly if he's going to, it's going to be with a team like this that is elite offensively, defensively, and controls the puck well in most situations.

The Avs have done a brilliant job building a defensive system that works perfectly with their starting goaltender, Bednar even alluded to Grubauer knowing for the most part when and where defensive breakdowns were going to happen, and being prepared for them.

Far worse goaltenders have won it all (Niemi) so it's not the biggest concern, but of course it's a concern nonetheless.

But really, which defensemen will be healthy and ready? Because them being healthy goes a long way in making Grubauer look good.
 

Eltuna

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On the Jones talk, off topic but I always found him to be a better Bouwmeester, it was the main thing I was worried about at the draft.

Very solid player that will have a long career, and he was phenomenal in his playoff series against the Leafs, but I think he became overrated the last few years similar to how JBO was overrated in Florida with the lesser exposure. There were people who thought he was the most valuable dman in the league as early as last year which always seemed off to me.
 

Pokecheque

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Not much you can do about it now.

Never said I wanted anything done--I've praised Joe for years for not overpaying for goalies like Calgary did this year. He went about it the right way IMO, it's a shame Frankie's hip exploded and everything kinda went to hell for a little while there, but I don't blame the gameplan, just the lack of action this offseason to address it. It was obviously a mistake to go into this season with an ECHL goalie as the backup, but that said, even with those struggles from the backups this season, the Avs still control their own destiny for home ice advantage and the league's best record despite the shit-ton of injuries.

I'm of the mind that you don't need elite, generational goaltending to win it all. It sure helps if you have it, but it's not necessary. You just need a goalie able to handle the workload, is reliable enough to make saves when they need to be made, and steal the occasional game. Grubauer checks all those boxes, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Doesn't mean there isn't just a bit of concern though, especially after what happened last postseason.
 

henchman21

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IMO an elite goalie is really nice to have for a Cup team... mainly for flexibility reasons. You can play different systems and even be a bit unorthodox, if you have an elite goalie. You can win with an average to above average goalie if the team and structure is good enough to cover up for them. Tampa vs Avs is a clear example of this.

Tampa's whole defensive scheme is based off being super aggressive in a wide 1-2-2 forecheck that falls back into an aggressive man defensive scheme that relies on bigger defenders to break up plays and quickly transition to the forwards (or in Hedman's case, whatever he wants to do). They system is based on breaking up a play once and out of the system. Constant pressure with talented players can break it down as they are facing a lot of 1v1 situations. It isn't all that far removed from what Roy wanted to implement. When they are in the defensive zone, they are not actually that good of defensive hockey team. They break down rather quickly and give up good chances. Because Vasi is elite, he covers that weakness up. Also Tampa is probably the best team defensively in the neutral zone, so breaking through is incredibly difficult. If you do and it is a rush chance, odds are Vasi stops it. Tampa works because they have an elite goalie. With a Gru or Niemi or Andersen... Tampa is a leaky defensive team that is propped up with great offense.

Now the Avs run a hybrid strong side 2-1-2 for the most part (sometimes they strong side a 1-2-2) with a layered zone system defensively. There is an aggressive man element to it where if a player has a puck, that defender applies pressure and chases while the rest of the team is in a zone. This is mostly defensemen and works because of the skating ability on the back end. But it is a system that is about limiting the defensive breakdowns with few layers to keeps chances and shots down... at least in quick succession. Even if a team gets setup and pressures, they are not likely to get more than one or two good chances before they system clamps down. The lack of chances and opportunities, means the Avs are not reliant on elite goaltending. They can get away average. But if the structure breaks down, there isn't the Vasi to save them.
 

Balthazar

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Is Gru a product of how good the Avs are? Probably. Even JoJo has great numbers with the Avs and the eye test says he's a terrible goaltender.

IMO Gru is good enough to win the cup with...but I don't believe we should pay him based on this year's numbers in the offseason. I also don't think he'd have a ton of success with a mediocre team.
 

Cousin Eddie

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Is Gru a product of how good the Avs are? Probably. Even JoJo has great numbers with the Avs and the eye test says he's a terrible goaltender.

IMO Gru is good enough to win the cup with...but I don't believe we should pay him based on this year's numbers in the offseason. I also don't think he'd have a ton of success with a mediocre team.
Johansson has a .907sv% with the Avs. Those are great numbers?

Grubauer leads the entire NHL in high danger save percentage. He’s not just a product of the Avs system. Look at the game he won against Vegas. Look at his stats in close. He’s lights out. That’s just a lazy to peg his success on the Avs system.
 

henchman21

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Johansson has a .907sv% with the Avs. Those are great numbers?

Grubauer leads the entire NHL in high danger save percentage. He’s not just a product of the Avs system. Look at the game he won against Vegas. Look at his stats in close. He’s lights out. That’s just a lazy to peg his success on the Avs system.
JoJo has certainly been below average. Wins are there because Avs have played lights out in front of him.

Grubs is leading high danger, basically because he's been utterly absurd on the PK in that area (all other situations, he's mid pack). His high danger on the PK is around .917 or something absurd like that. That is simply not sustainable. Great numbers are .85-.86 there. There just hasn't been enough time for that to regress. It will. But he has been really good this season and nothing should take away from that. His ability to carry the load, not get injured, and plays 55+ in a season is still a large question. The playoffs will be big for him in gaining respect around the league.
 
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Pokecheque

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Johansson has a .907sv% with the Avs. Those are great numbers?

Grubauer leads the entire NHL in high danger save percentage. He’s not just a product of the Avs system. Look at the game he won against Vegas. Look at his stats in close. He’s lights out. That’s just a lazy to peg his success on the Avs system.

I don't think it has to be an either/or scenario. Grubauer is a good goalie who's putting up insane numbers behind an elite team. I agree he's underappreciated to a degree (as Henchy pointed out, Darcy Kuemper gets lauded as an elite goalie when he probably isn't, and Grubauer is very comparable) but I don't consider him to be elite.
 

Pokecheque

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JoJo has certainly been below average. Wins are there because Avs have played lights out in front of him.

Grubs is leading high danger, basically because he's been utterly absurd on the PK in that area (all other situations, he's mid pack). His high danger on the PK is around .917 or something absurd like that. That is simply not sustainable. Great numbers are .85-.86 there. There just hasn't been enough time for that to regress. It will. But he has been really good this season and nothing should take away from that. His ability to carry the load, not get injured, and plays 55+ in a season is still a large question. The playoffs will be big for him in gaining respect around the league.

And that is why I'm still super-worried about the PK. It's the one thing about Bednar's system I find truly frustrating. No idea why he loves that particular passive system so much when he goes out of his way to utilize the talent, depth, and speed at his disposal. Complete opposite of that on the PK. The only reason it has improved is because defensemen like Toews and Girard are better able to skate to loose pucks and clear it more effectively, whereas guys like EJ, Zadorov, and Graves/Nemeth can't.
 

Gigantor The Goalie

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The Gru situation is very interesting in that it's many pieces all coming together to give us the results we're currently seeing. The easiest way to put it is that Gru and the Avs system is about as perfect of a fit that you can get. Bednar has the right players, the right amount of buy-in and he's going up against the same opponents so much he's able to game plan/take advantage of the weaker coaches in division. Where I don't think Gru gets enough credit and where I think goalie evaluation is lacking is when it comes to cumulative stats. In The Athletic article with Valiquette when he's bring up CSA's stats it's always talked about in the cumulative view and not on a game-t0-game basis. The downside to the Avs system is that there's no chance for Gru to "inflate" his stats at all. With how the Avs play the margin between a game for Gru where he has a GSAx of 0 or higher and has a GSAx below 0 is thin. Gru could put up straight positive GSAx games but one bad game will completely sink his numbers. The issue I find with this particular Valiquette quote is I very much doubt he's been watching Grubauer in any large sample size so he's relying a lot on cumulative numbers and from April till now Gru has had 10 games, 3 can be classified as below average or bad. 6/10 can be classified as average to above average and if this is his worst stretch of the season that's a high floor. Problem is if you're just looking at the cumulative stats you'll see below average numbers because Gru wasn't given the chance to make up for those bad games in that stretch. However if he's delivering +GSAx games at a much higher rate than the -GSAx games he's theoretically providing the same or better impact as a goalie that has a higher cumulative GSAx but is more in the 5/10 +GSAx stretch of games.

What that means for Gru and his future contract? That's another long post for another time. I just believe for this season and in how we should be looking at goaltender evaluation consistency is being overlooked far too much. As a goalie you can only deal with what you are handed by the opposing team and your team. Gru's numbers should be a lot more average overall but he is absolutely excelling in this system and the results bear it out.
 

Richard88

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Is Gru a product of how good the Avs are? Probably. Even JoJo has great numbers with the Avs and the eye test says he's a terrible goaltender.

IMO Gru is good enough to win the cup with...but I don't believe we should pay him based on this year's numbers in the offseason. I also don't think he'd have a ton of success with a mediocre team.
It would probably be easier to make the case that Grubauer is protected by the team system if Dubnyk and Miska hadn't shat the bed. Really nice to see Johansson having such great stats though, 5-1-1, 0.913 sv%, 2.06 GAA, 0.39 GSAA, and 0.851 HDSV%. Sakic got vindicated big time on his decision to wait on getting a backup.

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