Speculation: 2020-21 Stars Roster Speculation and Discussion Part II

[Smelling Salt]

Apparently I was a really big fan of the Tufte pick. Too bad I don’t think he’ll prove me right.

Mavrik Bourque only had 2 less goals and 4 less points than him on Texas this season

 

[serp]

Tufte can still be a better version of Gardner but thats about it.

 

[Captain Awesome]

That was sarcasm, mate.

Oh I know, I had posted more but this site doesn’t like my phone and I just kinda gave up on the rest.

 

[Satan]

Tufte can still be a better version of Gardner but thats about it.

Just what we need, more fringe NHL players

 

[BfantZ]

They're going to start Bishop skating again in June/July. The offseason plan is going to depend on how healthy he looks. If he still hasn't recovered 9 months after a surgical recovery that was only supposed to take 5 months, Khudobin's probably on the team next year.

If the stars were in a better position bishop would probably be playing right now . I don’t think there’s much concern about him not being recovered by next year .

 

[BfantZ]

Tufte can still be a better version of Gardner but thats about it.

Tufte is actually really good in his own zone . He makes a lot of really nice defensive plays .

 

[serp]

If the stars were in a better position bishop would probably be playing right now . I don’t think there’s much concern about him not being recovered by next year .

Idk about that. They got Seguin into games despite not beeing in a great position anymore either . Not like the Stars goaltending was so good they couldn't have used a healthy Bishop

 

[Satan]

Tufte is actually really good in his own zone . He makes a lot of really nice defensive plays .

We should sign him to a 3.5M aav contract

 

[Dallasman]

Just what we need, more fringe NHL players

He's the kind of guy you bring up to replace someone like Cogliano & Comeau. Cheap and decent defensively.

 

[Satan]

He's the kind of guy you bring up to replace someone like Cogliano & Comeau. Cheap and decent defensively.

There's tons of guys with NHL experience available every July 1st that will sign for 750k-1.5M.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Tufte seems kinda turnover prone for a grinder type. Routine passes just kinda bounced off his stick in the Texas games I saw this year. That needs to get ironed out before we start talking about NHL jobs.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

He's the kind of guy you bring up to replace someone like Cogliano & Comeau. Cheap and decent defensively.

As long as you only replace one this year, and one next, just to keep some continuity. A lot of us screamed for TyD to replace Faksa, thinking he could do it easily, but he wasn't ready. Replace one, get that rookie up to speed, then replace the other old guy.

As to signing another vet instead? Probably will need $1Mil minimum, and that $150K might help the cap. Plus, young players get better, old ones get older. I put my money on a youngster being faster and more effecive (via experience) by crunch time. Not a guarantee, of course, it depends on the players involved, but an odds on favorite at sometime. It's a young man's game.

Plus, filling the position through the draft is an organizational win if performance is anywhere near equal. Keeps the morale up down in Austin knowing you have a chance, and that they won't continue to fill in lower lines with other teams' castoffs.

Lastly, what makes you think this board will not crap all over the new vet like we do Cogs, Comeau, Vatenan, etc.? After a week, we will start picking on their flaws, like we always do......

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

There’s just no defending this team’s drafting history. It’s been garbage for decades. That is not an exaggeration, find me a team who drafts worse in the 1st round over the last 20 years. Nill has continued this proud tradition with his awful drafting philosophy. I will give credit for the last 2 drafts, at least Harley and borque seem exciting as prospects. Unless Oettinger is elite, I’ll never be ok with a goalie in the 1st.

Phrases like "absolute garbage" are really over the top, and nowhere near close to accurate.

In reality, Nill has built a consistent top 10 team with a chance to contend. Not a surefire, top 2 or 3 contender like TB was last year (and COL, CAR, and a few others were in that class) but definitely a second tier contender who could do damage and win if things fell right (as they almost did last year.)

Agree that had he picked Barzel (although the goal differential isn't really very big over DG) and DeBrincat (over Tufte, yes a big upgrade), and maybe Vaz, the team would have likely been elevated to top tier contenders the last two years instead of near top tier. At least if nothing else changed, but we can never know how an alternate history would have panned out.

So, it does highlight the relative importance of high picks, and how just a few bad ones lowers the chances of winning the Cup. But most of those teams built well through the draft had a few lottery wins and years of suckage, which can put a dent in drafting success.

I do agree Nill seemed to promise drafting skill, skill, skill, and a southern version of the Red Wings when he got here. I don't know if it was Honka, or just a realization that teams also need some size, character and grit to win that steered him temporarily to guys like Tufte, but in the last few drafts, he seems to balance speed, skill and character in the first round picks, hopefully, with Harley and Bourque haveing a mix of those and character, too.

 

[ZeHockeyFan]

Tufte is actually really good in his own zone . He makes a lot of really nice defensive plays .

#pesky

 

[ZeHockeyFan]

Phrases like "absolute garbage" are really over the top, and nowhere near close to accurate.

In reality, Nill has built a consistent top 10 team with a chance to contend. Not a surefire, top 2 or 3 contender like TB was last year (and COL, CAR, and a few others were in that class) but definitely a second tier contender who could do damage and win if things fell right (as they almost did last year.)

Agree that had he picked Barzel (although the goal differential isn't really very big over DG) and DeBrincat (over Tufte, yes a big upgrade), and maybe Vaz, the team would have likely been elevated to top tier contenders the last two years instead of near top tier. At least if nothing else changed, but we can never know how an alternate history would have panned out.

So, it does highlight the relative importance of high picks, and how just a few bad ones lowers the chances of winning the Cup. But most of those teams built well through the draft had a few lottery wins and years of suckage, which can put a dent in drafting success.

I do agree Nill seemed to promise drafting skill, skill, skill, and a southern version of the Red Wings when he got here. I don't know if it was Honka, or just a realization that teams also need some size, character and grit to win that steered him temporarily to guys like Tufte, but in the last few drafts, he seems to balance speed, skill and character in the first round picks, hopefully, with Harley and Bourque haveing a mix of those and character, too.

Disagree. This has been a mediocre team for the past 20 years with no signs of progressing or regressing (to improve).

The "absolute garbage" is more pointed towards the result vs the expectations from a long-tenured front office guy whom is being paid serious $$, especially when compared to his immediate predecessor- whom had very little managerial experience- and despite that, has roughly the same draft output in 8 years vs 4 years. Add to that the previous guy didn't even have a 3rd overall fall in his lap and had to deal with 3 years of bankruptcy. That's what is the absolute garbage part of it.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

And yet, despite being one of the older prospects in the pool, he is one who has never seen a callup, including Gardiner, Camanno, etc. Is there a reason for that?

If defensively responsible, with his size and speed he would seem to be the ideal candidate for 3/4 line duty. So, why hasn't he been here at least for a cup of coffee?

 

[Satan]

And yet, despite being one of the older prospects in the pool, he is one who has never seen a callup, including Gardiner, Camanno, etc. Is there a reason for that?

If defensively responsible, with his size and speed he would seem to be the ideal candidate for 3/4 line duty. So, why hasn't he been here at least for a cup of coffee?

Can't call up Tufte until he's able to grow facial hair- its an internal regulation

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Disagree. This has been a mediocre team for the past 20 years with no signs of progressing or regressing (to improve).

The "absolute garbage" is more pointed towards the result vs the expectations from a long-tenured front office guy whom is being paid serious $$, especially when compared to his immediate predecessor- whom had very little managerial experience- and despite that, has roughly the same draft output in 8 years vs 4 years. Add to that the previous guy didn't even have a 3rd overall fall in his lap nor deal with 3 years of bankruptcy. That's what is the absolute garbage part of it.

Draft output isn't the measure of success, it's a measure of someone looking to b%%$^ about something. A GM can use trades and UFA to build the roster. (although to be fair to GMJoe 1, he couldn't to any large degree) Nill took over a roster so bad it hadn't made the playoffs in five years. Nill has a regular season Western Conference Championship and WC playoff championship to his credit, which hadn't happened since 2001 (maybe 2004 on the regular season) Those first

Again, I think your "expectations" are unreasonable. Yes, a few teams have managed to be great for 2-5 years at a time, usually with some repeated lotto luck, like Chicago, Pitt, TB, etc. COL looks like another here now.

Nill has had one lotto pick fall in his lap (yes, a bit of luck finally went our way) and made the most of it. (At least he didn't pick Patrick, whoo!) But in your eyes, even that is somehow a negative, or to be devalued as luck, whereas everything else he did that was less than stellar is him being a dumbass. Typical fan attitude, but so wrong!

So, in any given 5 year period, 4 teams are exemplary, 26-28 are not. While we all want to somehow be a Cup champ every year, the one stat that never changes is that only one team wins it in any year. And even for that team, nearly everything has to go right. Summing up Nill's tenure as absolute garbage is childish, at least IMHO.

I'm also sure Nill isn't being paid a lot more than other top GM's. Not sure why you bring that up. And, Joe N was a rookie GM, picked apparently on nostalgia, although he is known to be a smart guy. Former players don't always work out, a la Gretsky as coach. He got about the results you would expect, and yes probably was hired on the cheap because they didn't want to pay for more, and they got what they probably deserved. Nill knows the biz. He was certainly the best pick available at the time.

And of course, if you call for Nill and everyone else to be fired, it seems logical that you should actually have the name of some sure fire GM, who has never failed to produce a cup contender in any year of his tenure ready to replace him? Call me when you have that in hand. Most of the names bandied around here are either young guys we think will grow into the job, or old guys who are retreads from somewhere else, but somehow we can only hope they strike magic here. Thinking back, again, Nill was almost the perfect choice - a guy who could have been a GM long ago based on all he did in Detroit, but waited for the perfect opportunity.

Fun fact: Over the past two years no team has won more playoff games than the Stars’ 22. I'm sure he wants to win that SC as much as we do as fans, and like most, if he does, it will be a lifetime achievment.

 

[DieselPig]

Analysis: Heiskanen Wasn’t His Usual Self, and Bowness Didn’t Ask Him To Be

Great article about Miro’s usage this year. Maybe contrary to popular opinion around here but I don’t think Jamie is an ideal partner for Miro. I would really like to see Miro back on the left side with a solid defensive minded guy. Miro needs to be the go to guy on his pair and I find Jamie is actually a detriment to Miro. The more I think about next season and with Harley’s play at the end with Texas I wouldn’t be opposed to letting Jamie O. walk this summer and using some of that cap hit for the forward group.

Lindell - Klingberg
Heiskanen - UFA
Harley - Sekera
Hanley

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I wonder how much of Jamie O's offensive rushes were solely due to him being in a contract year, LOL. It does seem weird that he drove that pair more than Miro, unless Miro was really under the weather after COVID.

That said, I can see all the moaning if we get a Lindell clone to pair with him.

 

[Troy McClure]

Analysis: Heiskanen Wasn’t His Usual Self, and Bowness Didn’t Ask Him To Be

Great article about Miro’s usage this year. Maybe contrary to popular opinion around here but I don’t think Jamie is an ideal partner for Miro. I would really like to see Miro back on the left side with a solid defensive minded guy. Miro needs to be the go to guy on his pair and I find Jamie is actually a detriment to Miro. The more I think about next season and with Harley’s play at the end with Texas I wouldn’t be opposed to letting Jamie O. walk this summer and using some of that cap hit for the forward group.

Lindell - Klingberg
Heiskanen - UFA
Harley - Sekera
Hanley

The "who Miro plays with" thing is being highly overstated in the article. His fancy chart shows Heiskanen plays a little bit more with the FCC line than with others, but it's not some massive difference. Bowness plays the FCC line against the other team's top players, and because of that, Bowness also plays his best overall d-man against those top opponents. Heiskanen is being asked to shut down the other team's best players.

He's also mad at the coaches for letting Oleksiak carry the puck and wants us to pretend that somehow hurts Heiskanen's stats. I don't know what to do with this. It seems silly. Every coach would prefer to have two breakout options because it keeps the opponent guessing. This should actually work to open things up more for both of them. This writer also seems to suggest coaches are encouraging Oleksiak to attack the net and not let Heiskanen do the same, which I think is entirely made up and without merit.

I'll just go back to the PP. Bowness's defensive system doesn't apply to the PP, so all of the system excuses get thrown out. On the PP, is Heiskanen tearing it up where he is free to show off his skills? No, not really. He's fine.

 

[ZeHockeyFan]

Draft output isn't the measure of success, it's a measure of someone looking to b%%$^ about something.

It is. Chicago, Pittsburgh, TB are evidence of draft-built teams

A GM can use trades and UFA to build the roster. (although to be fair to GMJoe 1, he couldn't to any large degree)

Seguin, Spezza, and Sharp were a while ago and all of them employed exploiting another team's gaffe. Since then, what has he been able to swing?

Nill took over a roster so bad it hadn't made the playoffs in five years.

Joe Nieuwendyk inherited a bankrupt team on the verge of decline. What's your point?

Nill has a regular season Western Conference Championship and WC playoff championship to his credit, which hadn't happened since 2001 (maybe 2004 on the regular season) Those first

You may be satisfied with that, but I expect more from someone of his pedigree. To insinuate that a team that had one fluke run to the final in a Covid shortened season (which arguably could have seen another bubble finish seeing that the team started to lose down the stretch like it did earlier in the season) and finished 4 out of 8 years out of the playoffs under Nill, is a top ten team in the NHL is downright laughable.

Again, I think your "expectations" are unreasonable.

I want better than 50% appearance in the playoffs by a squad that built the championship Red Wings team and is being paid mucho dinero for that reason.

How is that unreasonable?

Yes, a few teams have managed to be great for 2-5 years at a time, usually with some repeated lotto luck, like Chicago, Pitt, TB, etc. COL looks like another here now.

It's also good drafting and development, which hasn't been done here. You've as much acknowledged 3 such instances.

Nill has had one lotto pick fall in his lap (yes, a bit of luck finally went our way) and made the most of it. (At least he didn't pick Patrick, whoo!) But in your eyes, even that is somehow a negative, or to be devalued as luck, whereas everything else he did that was less than stellar is him being a dumbass. Typical fan attitude, but so wrong!

You must have reading comprehension issues. I only insinuated that the guy before him whom was criticized severely for his drafting gaffes still gave Nill his #1, #2, and #4 D without having a lotto luck. Read again.

And wtf about Patrick? As if someone picked earlier was Nill's choice to make? Moronic.

So, in any given 5 year period, 4 teams are exemplary, 26-28 are not. While we all want to somehow be a Cup champ every year, the one stat that never changes is that only one team wins it in any year. And even for that team, nearly everything has to go right. Summing up Nill's tenure as absolute garbage is childish, at least IMHO.

For his pedigree that preceded him, for the $$ he makes, his drafting output and the success he has managed in 8 years is comparatively garbage.

I'm also sure Nill isn't being paid a lot more than other top GM's.

That's not the argument. It's that he is being paid good money for his pedigree and definitely more than his predecessor and needs to deliver better results.

Not sure why you bring that up.

You get paid higher, you're expected to execute better and faster. Duh!

And, Joe N was a rookie GM, picked apparently on nostalgia, although he is known to be a smart guy. Former players don't always work out, a la Gretsky as coach. He got about the results you would expect, and yes probably was hired on the cheap because they didn't want to pay for more, and they got what they probably deserved.

I am not on the Nieuwendyk wagon. You don't have to explain this to me.

Nill knows the biz. He was certainly the best pick available at the time.

Not denying this, but his time has passed here in Dallas.

And of course, if you call for Nill and everyone else to be fired, it seems logical that you should actually have the name of some sure fire GM, who has never failed to produce a cup contender in any year of his tenure ready to replace him? Call me when you have that in hand.

No, I don't have the name of a surefire GM, much in the same way GMs don't have the name of a surefire coach handy when they fire their coaches.

That said, I think Gallant and Co. would be a better coach than this lot

Most of the names bandied around here are either young guys we think will grow into the job, or old guys who are retreads from somewhere else, but somehow we can only hope they strike magic here. Thinking back, again, Nill was almost the perfect choice - a guy who could have been a GM long ago based on all he did in Detroit, but waited for the perfect opportunity.

Not disagreeing with the 2013 sentiment.

Do not agree that he is still the right person for the job NOW.

Fun fact: Over the past two years no team has won more playoff games than the Stars’ 22. I'm sure he wants to win that SC as much as we do as fans, and like most, if he does, it will be a lifetime achievment.

Why not the last 5 years? Or 4 years? Or 3 years?

Yep. Cherry-picking statistics to make yourself feel better. Put that on a banner and raise it to the rafters.

 

[David Castillo]

The "who Miro plays with" thing is being highly overstated in the article. His fancy chart shows Heiskanen plays a little bit more with the FCC line than with others, but it's not some massive difference. Bowness plays the FCC line against the other team's top players, and because of that, Bowness also plays his best overall d-man against those top opponents. Heiskanen is being asked to shut down the other team's best players.

He's also mad at the coaches for letting Oleksiak carry the puck and wants us to pretend that somehow hurts Heiskanen's stats. I don't know what to do with this. It seems silly. Every coach would prefer to have two breakout options because it keeps the opponent guessing. This should actually work to open things up more for both of them. This writer also seems to suggest coaches are encouraging Oleksiak to attack the net and not let Heiskanen do the same, which I think is entirely made up and without merit.

I'll just go back to the PP. Bowness's defensive system doesn't apply to the PP, so all of the system excuses get thrown out. On the PP, is Heiskanen tearing it up where he is free to show off his skills? No, not really. He's fine.

I'm not even sure what you're arguing here. Is Oleksiak some kind of offensive machine Dallas should use as an option at the cost of Miro playing his offside to begin with? Should Dallas' best defenceman be used to give a bunch of lameduck lines a blue ribbon boost? Were opponents really "caught guessing" this year with Oleksiak activating? If the answer to these pointless questions is no, then I'm not sure where being "mad" figures into this analysis. Taken together, and in the context of Bowness' system which the data and the video make clear, yes, it's clear that Heiskanen's talents aren't being maximized.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Some fair points. Still, Bowness is .592 with the Stars, lower over the long term, with 3 previous coaching gigs on terrible teams. OverallGallant has a career .550 record, a high year in year one with Vegas at .665 and trending down after that. A nice coach, no doubt. No guarantee that he would regain his one year of magic with the Stars? Besides, I asked for GM's, not coaches. Either way, none available would be any guarantee, as they never are.

Fans tend to compare other coaches to some mythical coach or GM who never existed. I get it, with PIT, CHI, and to a lesser degree, TB. Actually, look at TB's actual draft record. Their best was 2011, and they did find a few third round gems a bit later (Point, Cirelli, Killorn, 4th round Paquette) Sergachev (obtained for no3 OA Drouin), Vaz, are the hits. Stamkos and Hedman were there no. 1 and 2 picks in the lotto. After that, they have drafted pretty average, but have had good longevity.

As to the 22 wins in the last two years, I pasted that from an article in Hockey News ranking GM's. BTW, Nill was 7th, so I guess I can ask you only to assure me that your pick would be top six, not the mythical very best of all time. I haven't found a list of GM salaries, BTW, but they all probably get paid handsomely, so your point on that is, shall we say, Nill. Pun intended.

Basically, my point is that had Nill hit on just 2-3 more draft choices, we would probably be equal to the top teams, and we are still pretty close. As mentioned, a lot has to go right to be the SC winner, much less a few times in a decade.

You say Nill's time has passed here in Dallas? Why, because his drafts 2017 and later have been terrible? Or his UFA pickups of Rads, Dobby, Comeau (yes mid pack pickup), or trades for Bishop haven't been good? Basically, it seems his biggest whiffs were the 2014 and 2016 drafts, which are unfortunate but also long gone. And, I do tend to agree that there may be a need for better development, seeing how some picks have gone on to other teams with success.

Listen, I get it. Fans can call for the ouster of coach, GM, star players, as they wish. It's their right, I guess. I bet there were calls for Landry to be out every time the Boys didn't win the super bowl, but cooler heads prevailed.

 

[Kcb12345]