Salary Cap: 2020-21 roster vs. Cap

[Henkka]

Let's take a look for the guys we have, and how many roster spot's there are left.

I estimated cap being the same as last season, 81.5M. NHL is gonna lose some money thanks to shortened season and it has straight effect to cap. It was estimated 84M cap for next season and 88M for year later, but those numbers are a pipe dream now.

If also next season is shortened, we can reach that level of revenue maybe two years later.

The guys we have + estimations:

1. Dylan Larkin - 6.1M
2. Anthony Mantha - 6.0M (RFA, estimation, 5-6 year contract, some injury concerns)
3. Tyler Bertuzzi - 5.5M (RFA, estimation, 7-8 year contract, no concerns)
4. Darren Helm - 3.85M
5. Robby Fabbri - 3.3M (RFA, estimation, 1-2 year contract like Athanasiou had before)
6. Valtteri Filppula - 3.0M
7. Luke Glendening - 1.8M
8. Evgeny Svechnikov - 950k (RFA, qualifying offer)
9. Mathias Brome - 925k
10. Michael Rasmussen - 894k
11. Christoffer Ehn - 850k (RFA, qualifying offer)
12. Dmytro Timashov - 765k (RFA, qualifying offer)
-------------------------------------
13. Frans Nielsen, 5.25M
14. Justin Abdelkader, 4.25M

Offence total: 43.4M

This is how the forward corps seems to be solved. But there's a lot of moving particles. First thing is, 2020-21 AHL season. Will it happen at all and how soon? Is there a place for kids to play? Would it be more smart than bad thing, if Svechnikov bolts to KHL Russia, and takes one season there, which would be good for his development and would open a spot for a NA kid in NHL roster? Brome could be loaned back to Sweden maybe, if there's no lower-level hockey in NA when NHL starts again. Maybe Ehn and Timashov could also go to Sweden, but not for a full season. Short-term monthly contract exists in Europe, so this is a thing Yzerman should experiment.

Then there are those Nielsen and Abdelkader, two damaged goods. I expect Nielsen to be bought out, and Abdelkader buried. New career as a local Muskegon/Griffins legend. Or both can be buried. In burying cases, it gives help with the cap by 1.025M of each contract and you can slot ELC-level of salary in. Save some 100-200k. No big deal in big picture for the total team caphit.

Erne could be extended to the spot of Abdelkader, or we give that spot for a guy like Givani Smith. Smith can go down in AHL, if there's a season. But if there's no AHL, I think he should be in NHL as a regular.

Nielsen opens that another spot, maybe Veleno should be considered on this, if there's no AHL. Veleno should also consider Europe to have a bigger role. But for this spot, it could be anybody, Turgeon, Pearson, Hirose. And not Sam Gagner. Perlini let walk, for sure.

1. LD Dan DeKeyser, 5.0M
2. RD Filip Hronek, 714k (hope he gets extended very soon even though he has 1-year left that bargain ELC)
3. LD Patrik Nemeth, 3.0M
4. RD Madison Bowey, 1.2M (RFA, estimation)
5. LD Dennis Cholowski, 894k
6. RD Alex Biega, 875k
7. RD Gustav Lindström, 776k
(8. RD Moritz Seider, 925k)

Daley and Ericsson finally let walk. Same for Cody Goloubef. Could think Bowey is extended, he has some value as an asset. Also he could be a factor for 2021 expansion draft, if he plays one more year at Detroit. There has to be certain amount of guys left exposed with certain contract status. Bowey fits in the bill.

DeKeyser being healthy again would be biggest addition on this group. Also, could think Seider would definitely be up, if there's no AHL. And he should go back to Mannheim to play, if there's hockey at Germany in september, a lot before NHL is starting.

1A. Starting Goalie - 1.0M
1B. Jonathan Bernier - 3.0M

Howard let walk. Maybe hunt for a cheap option, but took just that basic salary (1M ) on calculations to reach a final cap total. If we are after Lehner and he commands 7 million, we need 6M for that extra space.

All caphits Total: 59.893M

Cap floor would be the same (60.2) as last season, if the cap is same. So in theory, we would be slightly under, but there's that final year of Zetterberg's 6.1M contract in LTIR, so we go over for sure.

If the cap would be same 81.5M as last year, we would have cap space 21.6M if using all Zetterberg's LTIR.

15.5M if Yzerman likes to stay under with Z's contract.

Click to read more...

 

[FireBird71]

Don’t see Bertuzzi getting a 4 million dollar per year raise

 

[ridilon]

Agree on Bert. He'll be closer to 4M AAV. Also I don't think there is any way Nielsen or Abby get bought out. 1 more season past 20/21 for Frans and two for Abby. Not that big of a deal to bury or LTIR them instead.

But I get your point. The Red Wings have plenty of cap space to sign Krug to a 6 year 7.5 AAV contract. I like where you went with this piece.

 

[Henkka]

noup... no idea how to insert capfriendly teams in here.

 

[PullHard]

Bertuzzi and Fabbri are both making ~$1.5M too much (cap hit)

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Fabbri @$3.5*3-4 is good, we need Top6/Middle 6 talent. Good future trade chip too.

Bert @4.9M sound right, bit low AAV but good term 6-7yrs.

Mantha @5.5M? 5-6 yrs?

 

[roman star]

ide pay bertuzzi 6 per long term easily , the kind of heads up scrappy hustling player thats making valuable plays all 200' that dont show up on the stat sheet . then you get one dimensional snipers that make way more because of point totals that arent near as valuable as a bertuzzi . if im gm tuzzi is offered 7x$6 and an A .

 

[odin1981]

ide pay bertuzzi 6 per long term easily , the kind of heads up scrappy hustling player thats making valuable plays all 200' that dont show up on the stat sheet . then you get one dimensional snipers that make way more because of point totals that arent near as valuable as a bertuzzi . if im gm tuzzi is offered 7x$6 and an A .

He had a breakout year no contention. But you would throw out a deal like that based on just one season?

 

[roman star]

He had a breakout year no contention. But you would throw out a deal like that based on just one season?

yes i might have went overboard because im a big fan of tuzzi's game . plus hes playing with two extreme nhl forces with talent and smarts which between the 3 has created a rock solid line that no doubt is good for tylers stats . but i also added inflation into the salary as in 4 years 6 mil will be worth less . but in retrospect ide say your probably right and that might be over payment . but another thing that got me going is i see tuzzi as a very commited player thats a leader by example and i want that around long term . but maybe 6 mil too much

 

[Henkka]

Evolwing hockey predicts 6.5M for Mantha, 5.3M for Bertuzzi and 2.5M for Fabbri.

Reasonable numbers for both Mantha and Tuzzi.

Fabbri was short-term deal, I think he'll get +3M with an extra year.

***

At capfrindly, extended those guys, added 7.3M Torey Krug on the roster, signed Robin Lehner for 6M and extended some RFAs with less than 1M deals. Buried Abdelkader and bought out Nielsen.

After that there was 9M of cap space for 2020-21, and 31M season after (2021-22).

Only bigger-size extension for that 2021-22 is Hronek (714k --> 5-6M ?). Hope Yzerman will complete it early.

 

[lilidk]

ide pay bertuzzi 6 per long term easily , the kind of heads up scrappy hustling player thats making valuable plays all 200' that dont show up on the stat sheet . then you get one dimensional snipers that make way more because of point totals that arent near as valuable as a bertuzzi . if im gm tuzzi is offered 7x$6 and an A .

That's overpayment

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Whether we like it or not, I'd expect one or two Nemeth/Filpulla-type signings. Especially on the blue line, I don't see us dropping Green, Ericsson, and Daley this offseason without bringing in some veteran help.

I know fans don't like those type of adds, but they always happen. Honestly, I'd be fine if you could basically find Nemeth 2.0. One or two year deal, some deadline value.

That aside, I'd love to see Yzerman use the cap as a weapon. Vancouver will have to make a choice between Markstrom and Demko before the expansion draft next summer. If we could eat Loui Eriksson's contract to facilitate a trade for Demko, I'd be all for that.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

Great write-up.

This makes me feel better about the team's chances going forward. We got a pretty team-friendly contract with Larkin; if we can get team-friendly contracts with Mantha ($6M, say) and Bertuzzi ($4.5 seems adequate for him, really), and Fabbri ($2.5MM), all for several years, we'll have a good offensive core for a long time at a low price.

The market might set a pretty high mark for Hronek when he comes due for a new contract. I almost hope he has a crappy season to control that hit.

 

[odin1981]

I could see Bert at 5-5.5 range hopefully for 4-6 year's. If healthy this year if there even is a season I think Mantha is 6-6.5 for around the same term as Tuzzi. Fabbri if we don't flip him is probably a 2-3 year 3.5 deal. We will sign 1-2 vet d spot holders like Nemeth for around 2.5-3 per hopefully at 1-2 year deals.

No to Krug. Yes to attempt a deal with the St. Louis d on FA. But no way he signs here.

 

[Henkka]

No to Krug. Yes to attempt a deal with the St. Louis d on FA. But no way he signs here.

So "no way Pietrangelo signs here", but when Krug could sign, NO(!) for him.

This is ridiculous thinking. Krug has produced most points on PP from last years, would instantly be our 1st PP quarterback we don't have to hope from anywhere. Just sign him for free, for the empty cap space we will have for next 7 years, which doesn't hurt anyhow in the big picture.

Elite player on this area + skating transition, and we say NO for him?

C'mon, get real. We absolutely sign him if there's even smallest chance he would join Red Wings. Our kids need elite guys to play with and learn from, from elite organization like Bruins. He's not a perfect player, bu we not paying 11 million either. Just realistic 7 freaking millions, so can join his home state and be a leader on a new young group. New challenge for him.

If we never add any extra pieces on this team, this will be a Buffalo Sabres rebuild. We will be at the same point at 2020, than at 2030. Time is now.

Torey Krug or Lehner together does not pull us to the playoffs at next season, we will still be a bad team, but you have to start from something. You have to start adding. We still draft high. But the change on our direction has to happen now. At summer of 2022 there will be more teams with capspace, when Seattle takes guy out from teams.

Our time to strike is now.

 

[Bondurant]

There's satisfaction knowing Yzerman isn't facing cap Hell even with Nielsen and Abby burning a hole in his wallet. I don't anticipate exciting signings but there's opportunity if Yzerman is tempted. My anticipation is that he will stay true to his presser last summer.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Lehner is interesting. Lots of boxes checked, but still youngish & no Cup resume, I'd go $4.9*3-6yrs? (He likely gets way more $ & upto 7yrs.)

Krug, meh for the avg.Defense, but PMD/PP1 he's a fit. Krug won't put up those crazy #'s in Det,. Him & Hronek manning the pts. on loaded up PP1 w/BertLarkMan, D to D, then Boom! Double Deflection by Bert & Lark on a Mantha 1-timer fed by Hronek. Krug's future cap @ age 33/34 ie, can be used for future Weaponized Cap Space. Reasonable expectation = 40-50pts/20-25min TOI on any given night ...& that's my hot take.

pp2
Tymashov-Fabbri-Zadina
Seider

 

[lilidk]

 

[odin1981]

So "no way Pietrangelo signs here", but when Krug could sign, NO(!) for him.

This is ridiculous thinking. Krug has produced most points on PP from last years, would instantly be our 1st PP quarterback we don't have to hope from anywhere. Just sign him for free, for the empty cap space we will have for next 7 years, which doesn't hurt anyhow in the big picture.

Elite player on this area + skating transition, and we say NO for him?

C'mon, get real. We absolutely sign him if there's even smallest chance he would join Red Wings. Our kids need elite guys to play with and learn from, from elite organization like Bruins. He's not a perfect player, bu we not paying 11 million either. Just realistic 7 freaking millions, so can join his home state and be a leader on a new young group. New challenge for him.

If we never add any extra pieces on this team, this will be a Buffalo Sabres rebuild. We will be at the same point at 2020, than at 2030. Time is now.

Torey Krug or Lehner together does not pull us to the playoffs at next season, we will still be a bad team, but you have to start from something. You have to start adding. We still draft high. But the change on our direction has to happen now. At summer of 2022 there will be more teams with capspace, when Seattle takes guy out from teams.

Our time to strike is now.

He will not be a PP1 QB when we are ready to contend. He will be a Green level ability and a cap anchor. He doesn't fit the rebuild timeline. And the fact that he is on Boston masks his wart's.

 

[Henkka]

Update:

The guys we have + estimations:

1. Dylan Larkin - 6.1M
2. Anthony Mantha - RFA - 6.0M (estimation, 5-6 year contract, some injury concerns)
3. Tyler Bertuzzi - RFA - 5.0M (estimation, 7-8 year contract, no concerns)
4. Darren Helm - 3.85M
5. Valtteri Filppula - 3.0M
6. Robby Fabbri - 2.95M (2-year deal done)
7. Luke Glendening - 1.8M
8. Filip Zadina - 925k
9. Evgeny Svechnikov - 874k (1-year deal done)
10. Michael Rasmussen - 832k
11. Christoffer Ehn - RFA - 850k (qualifying offer?)
12. Dmytro Timashov - RFA - 765k (qualifying offer?)
-------------------------------------
13. Mathias Brome - 925k (1-year deal done)
14. Frans Nielsen, 5.25M
15. Justin Abdelkader, 4.25M

Offence total: 43.4M

1. LD Dan DeKeyser, 5.0M
2. RD Filip Hronek, 714k (hope he gets extended very soon even though he has 1-year left that bargain ELC)
3. LD Patrik Nemeth, 3.0M
4. RD Madison Bowey, 1.2M (RFA, estimation)
5. LD Dennis Cholowski, 894k
6. RD Alex Biega, 875k
7. RD Gustav Lindström, 776k
(8. RD Moritz Seider, 925k)

1A. Starting Goalie - 1.0M - 7.0M
1B. Jonathan Bernier - 3.0M

Howard let walk. Maybe hunt for a cheap option, but took just that basic salary (1M ) on calculations to reach a final cap total. If we are after Lehner and he commands 7 million, we need 6M for that extra space.

All caphits Total: 59.893M ~kind of cap floor.

 

[PelagicJoe]

Just please for everything that is good, do not sign Howard again.

 

[RedMenace]

And please let Bowey walk.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Well this is interesting!

 

[Henkka]

And please let Bowey walk.

We will need Bowey's games for the expansion draft.

Hope he's the player we use (at 2020-21) and the player we lose on expansion.

Use and lose!

 

[Inspiration]

We will need Bowey's games for the expansion draft.

Hope he's the player we use (at 2020-21) and the player we lose on expansion.

Use and lose!

Detroit would need to qualify him at $1.05M. Given the way teams will be squeezed from both a cash and cap perspective, it wouldn't shock me if the Red Wings decided that was too much for a borderline NHLer.