I've copied and pasted your post below and my replies are in bold.
Why is Holtz' talent not translate to a sure thing as an NHL goal scorer, but other prospects will translate to a sure thing at the NHL level? That's that inequality in thought that I don't get. Again, Central Scouting EU has Holtz ranked as the 2nd best prospect, above Raymond.
Because there’s more to being a sure thing than just having a good shot. I’ve never said anyone is a sure thing (well Laf is but he’s in a class of his own) but I think 7-8 other guys are more sure bets than Holtz. I see Holtz as having a good shot but someone who plays on the perimeter, has poor shot selection, poor defense and below average skating. That’s nice that CS EU has him ranked over Raymond, they’re more the exception than the rule, McKenzie, Button, Pronman, ISS, McKeens and FC all rank Raymond higher.
Against men, Holtz did better than Raymond.
Raymond: 33 games, 4 goals (16th on team), 6 assists (18th), and 10 points (17th)
Holtz: 35 games, 9 goals (5th on team), 7 (14th), and 16 points (10th)
Context is required here. Holtz has already filled out a lot more than Raymond so physically he was more ready. But Holtz also got a lot more opportunity - his team was much weaker offensively and as a result he averaged more than 3 minutes more per night and received regular PP time. Raymond was playing mostly 4th line minutes and was used in front of the net on the PP when he actually got to play there which is not his strength. If you switch their teams I’m sure the stats would tell a different story.
The most goals scored was 17 goals for both teams, 38-year old Joel Lundqvist for Raymond's team and 32-year old Patrick Berglund for Holtz' team. DD denoted the reason Holtz adapted better than Raymond was because Holtz was able to get more physical. His coach and scouts reiterate Holtz' motor/drive is very high and that's the huge reason why he'll be produce. Again, DD noticed this watching Holtz' season and saw that growth due to his motor.
You keep quoting DD and his videos are great but he’s just one opinion. Holtz didn’t adapt better so much as he was more physically ready and was given much more opportunity.
Between Raymond and Holtz, we already know Holtz has already adapted faster against men, though not possessing the high ceiling talent of Raymond. That high ceiling rating was seen readily against players Raymond's age. DD stated that Raymond was the superior player in the junior league, but that flipped at a men's league (SHL). If Holtz produced better than Raymond at the same level of play against men, then why does Holtz get a knock? Holtz also produced more assists than Raymond too.
Again there’s no knock on Holtz for producing more against men, the knock is on his attributes and how well they will translate in the NHL vs Raymond’s. Raymond has high end hands, is a much better skater and has higher end hockey IQ. His motor is also just as good. I value those attributes far more than having a good shot and good hands but with weak skating and poor shot selection.
The CHL isn't played against men. It's more difficult to tell if players will adapt to playing against men.
Not disagreeing here but as many players bust playing against men in European leagues pre draft as they do in the CHL. It is hard to compare though but comparisons are still possible.
We all can fall in love with potential, but do we put the actuality of reaching that potential? Playing in the SHL does give us better insight on that transition. That's a big factor as to why Stutzle is being looked at possibly being selected #2 overall, though he played at the DEL.
A big factor as to why Stutzle is being looked at number 2 is because he’s an excellent prospect with high end offensive attributes and work ethic, it doesn’t matter what league he plays in he would be considered for number two no matter where he plays.
If fans love Teemu, then why isn't Holtz a viable prospect for the Ducks? Scoring a lot of goals and PP goals aren't valued factors? We're deprived at scoring ES goals as well as PP goals with only Brayden Tracey as a possible goal scorer, but a majority of this board is already down on Tracey.
Teemu is one of the best goal scorers of all time with incredible instincts, top end skating ability and an innate ability to get open. Holtz will never be on that level of greatness, I don’t get how this attempted comparison makes him a viable prospect? As for being a viable prospect, he is very much a viable prospect for whoever drafts him but at number 6 the majority of posters on these boards thing we can get a better prospect than Holtz.
What if Raymond doesn't bulk up? What if Perfetti's skating doesn't get fixed? I like Rossi, but Holtz is 8-month younger. Thus, Holtz might have more to his game than Rossi as Holtz continues to fill out (because DD noticed Holtz did increase his mass playing at the SHL level). I enjoy the high floor that Holtz brings and displayed at the SHL level. There's youtube videos on tracking both Raymond and Holtz. Holtz identifies the differences between playing against juniors and mens, which probably made him adapt faster knowing there is a huge jump, more structure, and more work involved.
As I said before Rossi is only 4 months older, not 8. And you can play what if’s with almost any prospects, there are very few sure things. I don’t know where this high floor comes from with Holtz, if he can’t continue to improve his skating and defensive game he’s as likely to bust as anyone in The top 10. As for the YouTube videos, there are YouTube videos out there that show Raymond making plays that Holtz could only dream of making.
But Anaheim has a lot of playmakers within their org, but no finishers. Is Tracey enough to bank upon? I don't think so.
Playmakers generally make those around them into better goal scorers than finishers help playmakers. I take two Getzlafs anyday of the week over one Getzlaf and one Perry, Getzlaf showed he could elevate the goal scoring ability of almost anybody where as the Perry didn’t drive the play nearly as much.
Again, I don't mind if Anaheim does select another player, but dismissing Holtz as a possibility has me scratching my head. Trading for a known NHL goal scorer will cost more than a 6th overall pick. This kid has been known to be a goal scorer for a few years now and hasn't disappointed. Why is that? Probably because he keeps working on it - which can be attributed to his motor/drive.
It’s my opinion, I don’t think he’s worthy of the 6th overall pick. I acknowledge he could very well be a possibility (who knows what our scouts are thinking), just IMO he shouldn’t be.
The draft is a gamble and we're projecting who those players can become. Part of that process is assessing the probability of becoming that player at the NHL level. Playing at the SHL/DEL/Liiga helps to create a better projection. Remember, playing in the NHL means playing in a more physical atmosphere. Holtz is much closer to playing at the NHL level than Raymond. With Raymond, we're going to have to wait a while and hope he does pan out to his potential against men. A lot of scouts project Holtz as a first line wing, 30-goal scorer. I didn't say this, but I am repeating it. What's wrong with that?
Plenty of players coming out of European leagues have busted, you can’t act like playing against men before being drafted makes them a sure thing. As for Holtz being much closer than Raymond, that’s a matter of opinion. If Raymond can bulk up and get some good opportunity this upcoming season I can see him only being a year away from playing in the NHL. He’s got a skillset very similar to Marner who was able to make it in his draft + 2 season. Projections are all well and good but they’re generally the high end of what a player could be. Holtz does have 30G upside but that’s closer to his ceiling than his floor.