Prospect Info: 2020-21 NCAA, CHL, OHL and European prospects thread

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Unknown Caller

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Very easily, you look at his point totals as a 19 year old in the QMJHL. This isn't rocket science. Produce or don't produce. If you don't put up points people will always question why. Do people not realize this is a conversation we had with McLeod at a 19 year old? I'm always asking why, it doesn't mean i think he's bad. I pumped his tires all wjc.

The point is that the kid played 9 games at the time (which were spread out over an extended period of breaks in the middle of a pandemic) and you’re drawing conclusions as if you have a normal 50 game sample size. You didn’t address anything he raised in his prior post.

I’m not claiming that Mercer has been lights out or is a sure thing, but it’s a little disingenuous to try take a minuscule sample size in an unconventional situation and try to draw definitive conclusions.

And for the record, Mercer has double the goals of Lapierre with just 2 more games played if we’re playing the stats game.
 

Jason MacIsaac

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The point is that the kid played 9 games at the time (which were spread out over an extended period of breaks in the middle of a pandemic) and you’re drawing conclusions as if you have a normal 50 game sample size. You didn’t address anything he raised in his prior post.

I’m not claiming that Mercer has been lights out or is a sure thing, but it’s a little disingenuous to try take a minuscule sample size in an unconventional situation and try to draw definitive conclusions.
What definitive conclusion am I drawing? I simply said it's a disappointing start offensively. If I want to increase my sample size it's 32 points in his last 27 games. Since this doesn't fit the "fanboy" narrative they lose their shit. Go look at some of Byron Bader's data and I'm sure he will agree Mercer hasn't been that impressive offensively.

Do I like him as a prospect? Yes, I absolutely love him. He will fit ideally on any center's wing. Don't expect great playmaking numbers though.
 
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TheUnseenHand

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What definitive conclusion am I drawing? I simply said it's a disappointing start offensively. If I want to increase my sample size it's 32 points in his last 27 games. Since this doesn't fit the "fanboy" narrative they lose their shit. Go look at some of Byron Bader's data and I'm sure he will agree Mercer hasn't been that impressive offensively.

Do I like him as a prospect? Yes, I absolutely love him. He will fit ideally on any center's wing. Don't expect great playmaking numbers though.

I do not mean this sarcastically or anything, just as an honest question: What kind of numbers should be expected of a player in that league to be considered one that has a good chance to put up numbers in the NHL? 2 ppg, 3 ppg?
 

Triumph

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I do not mean this sarcastically or anything, just as an honest question: What kind of numbers should be expected of a player in that league to be considered one that has a good chance to put up numbers in the NHL? 2 ppg, 3 ppg?

1.5 to 2 PPG, yeah. Huberdeau was at nearly 2 PPG in his D+1 year, 1.5 PPG his D+2 year when the NHL was locked out. Nico was just below 1.5 PPG in his draft year. Dubois was at 1.2 PPG his D+1 year but 1.5 in his draft year.

The thing is, a bad run of games can easily have a guy who should be a 1.5 PPG guy putting up 1 PPG. We saw the same hand-wringing last year about Smith but then in his second half he exploded.
 

Blackjack

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I do not mean this sarcastically or anything, just as an honest question: What kind of numbers should be expected of a player in that league to be considered one that has a good chance to put up numbers in the NHL? 2 ppg, 3 ppg?

I think in D+1 in the OHL you want to see close to 2 ppg for a top 6 NHL projection, but it doesn't always work that way, and I'm not concerned about Mercer. Henrique was barely over a ppg in his D+1 and D+2, and that was playing with Taylor Hall. He's been fine offensively in the NHL.
 
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Blackjack

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1.5 to 2 PPG, yeah. Huberdeau was at nearly 2 PPG in his D+1 year, 1.5 PPG his D+2 year when the NHL was locked out. Nico was just below 1.5 PPG in his draft year. Dubois was at 1.2 PPG his D+1 year but 1.5 in his draft year.

The thing is, a bad run of games can easily have a guy who should be a 1.5 PPG guy putting up 1 PPG. We saw the same hand-wringing last year about Smith but then in his second half he exploded.

Yup, Smith was under a ppg for most of the season and then had a massive scoring run late including a five or six point game. So you look at his point totals in juniors now and they look very steady and impressive, but last season people were absolutely shitting themselves over it (including me a little bit TBH) and look how that turned out.
 

SteveCangialosi123

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There has to be some context to these numbers though with the shutdowns and general weirdness of this season. I’m not watching his games so idk how he looks but I did see him in the WJC and he contributed in a number of ways that didn’t show on the stat sheet.

He’ll probably take off after this hat trick and the concerns will be squashed.
 

TheUnseenHand

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There has to be some context to these numbers though with the shutdowns and general weirdness of this season. I’m not watching his games so idk how he looks but I did see him in the WJC and he contributed in a number of ways that didn’t show on the stat sheet.

He’ll probably take off after this hat trick and the concerns will be squashed.

He is the kind of player you don't get concerned about because even when he isn't scoring he is contributing in a lot of other positive ways. It's not like a guy like Liane who is a liability at all times aside from scoring goals.
 
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Unknown Caller

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He is the kind of player you don't get concerned about because even when he isn't scoring he is contributing in a lot of other positive ways. It's not like a guy like Liane who is a liability at all times aside from scoring goals.

He also had 10 games before his hat trick yesterday, a very small sample size. We all watch enough hockey to know a guy can have great games and just not get the bounces. I’m not sure what his shooting percentage and xgf numbers are, but a sample size under 10 games just subjects the point totals to a lot of luck.

That’s not even accounting for the fact that games are played literally months apart from one another with shut downs, cancellations, etc.
 

StevenToddIves

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1.5 to 2 PPG, yeah. Huberdeau was at nearly 2 PPG in his D+1 year, 1.5 PPG his D+2 year when the NHL was locked out. Nico was just below 1.5 PPG in his draft year. Dubois was at 1.2 PPG his D+1 year but 1.5 in his draft year.

The thing is, a bad run of games can easily have a guy who should be a 1.5 PPG guy putting up 1 PPG. We saw the same hand-wringing last year about Smith but then in his second half he exploded.

Smith was not 100% healthy at the beginning of last season. I think sometimes we look a bit too hard at the numbers and don't take into account the surrounding factors. Aarne Talvitie is a great example -- his numbers last year took a dive, for sure, but this kid was dealing with major injury and personal issues. For me, it was a testament to his character that he even played at all.

The Dawson Mercer debate is interesting to me, as it obviously is to many of us. Will he a be a very good NHL player? I do not think any of us doubt this -- his complete game and almost ridiculous combination of hockey IQ/compete level assures that he will be a successful NHL contributor. The only question is -- are we talking about a 50-point, middle 6 guy or a top line stud? Either way, he's a good pick at #18 overall, the way I look at it. But I do have faith that a kid with this high-end kind of character and drive will improve at a higher development curve than most and really emerge as a terrific NHL player one day.
 

Triumph

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Does Hellickson consider going FA with the young D depth?

What other organization would give him more of an opportunity?

Seattle is a great place for unsigned free agents. They will be lacking players at his age and waiver ineligibility. But yeah, I would not be surprised if he does not sign.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Does Hellickson consider going FA with the young D depth?

What other organization would give him more of an opportunity?

Matt Hellickson is, in my mind, more of a depth prospect than anything else. He's a solid skater with solid size and solid offensive tools, but nothing really jumps out at you. He's a pretty smart player but he still has a bit of a penchant for mistakes, considering his experience with Notre Dame. We're not talking a "liability", but my point is that if you're a defenseman who is not producing big points you need to be air-tight in your defensive coverage.

I would certainly like to see Matt Hellickson sign a contract and continue to develop in the AHL as a member of the Devils organization, but again it needs to be stated that we're talking about a long shot, especially considering the Devils tremendous organizational depth at the LD position.
 
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My3Sons

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Matt Hellickson is, in my mind, more of a depth prospect than anything else. He's a solid skater with solid size and solid offensive tools, but nothing really jumps out at you. He's a pretty smart player but he still has a bit of a penchant for mistakes, considering his experience with Notre Dame. We're not talking a "liability", but my point is that if you're a defenseman who is not producing big points you need to be air-tight in your defensive coverage.

I would certainly like to see Matt Hellickson sign a contract and continue to develop in the AHL as a member of the Devils organization, but again it needs to be stated that we're talking about a long shot, especially considering the Devils tremendous organizational depth at the LD position.

So you are telling me that if absolutely everything goes right he might be a smaller less heady worse left handed version of Lovejoy? Where do I sign?
 
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