Prospect Info: 2020-21 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #6

[Curufinwe]

1. Frost, Morgan - 80%
2. York, Cam - 71%
3. Zamula, Yegor - 48%
4. Brink, Bobby - 73%
5. Foerster, Tyson - 53%

Prospect Info: - 2020-21 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #5

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[Alex91]

For me, this tier is something like

Allison
Andrea
Laczynski
O’Brien


Allison has the scoring/size but lacks IQ/health

Andrea has skill but lacks size

Laczynski is high floor/IQ but low ceiling

O’Brien has shown skill but hasn’t played vs men

 

[deadhead]

I had Andrae 5th, so he has to be my 6th.

After that, it gets a bit murkier.

Laczynski and Cates are the best two way bottom six prospects. Maybe Wisdom in a year or two.
Allison seems fully recovered from the knee, has 20+ goal scoring potential, but IQ and defense raise questions.
Millman is the best of the rest on defense. Though Wylie probably has the higher floor.
Ratcliffe is a project with upside

 

[Beef Invictus]

It's gonna be Linus "Floating Mass of Swine Flesh" Hogberg eventually.

 

[BiggE]

Andrae
Period, end of story

 

[Rebels57]

Had to go with Andrae for a couple of reasons.

A) I trust @Appleyard

&

B) Defensemen with Top 4 potential are more valuable to a team than bottom 6 forwards, which is likely all we have left for our forward prospects. I do think Tanner and Wade could be above average 3rd liners that can spot duty in the top 6, but I still think a Top 4 dman is more valuable than that type of player.

 

[freakydallas13]

It's gonna be Linus "Floating Mass of Swine Flesh" Hogberg eventually.

Everyone knows 90% of Hogbergs are below the surface.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Was going to vote Andrae until he lost his man in front again for a GA and got benched after two shifts today.

Went Tanner. Cates deserves some consideration in this area as well. He had a great year.

Defensemen with Top 4 potential are more valuable to a team than bottom 6 forwards, which is likely all we have left for our forward prospects. I do think Tanner and Wade could be above average 3rd liners that can spot duty in the top 6, but I still think a Top 4 dman is more valuable than that type of player.

But what kind of odds would you put on him becoming a top 4 defenseman? I could get on board that he has a non-zero chance at being a top 4 defenseman, but his top 4 potential is mostly tied to his age. You have to consider his floor as well, which is considerably lower imo. Like I think Connor McClennon has middle six upside. Which is probably more than say a guy like Cates, but there's also a chance that McClennon is just a good Junior player that is nothing more than a AAAA player at the professional level. I would be surprised if Cates isn't at least a decent NHL 4th liner and relatively quickly at that, therefore I can't vote McClennon higher than Cates because he theoretically has higher upside.

If Andrae has true top 4 upside, he should be ranked much higher than 6th.

This isn't the best way to look at it, but he has to beat out both Zamula and York in addition to Millman and Ginning to be a top 4 defenseman here. Those are just the LHD (+ Myers who has already established himself as a Top 4 guy) in the organization right now. Tough sledding.

Provorov
Sanheim
Myers
York
Zamula
Millman

 

[TB87]

Everyone knows 90% of Hogbergs are below the surface.

This is clever. I like this.

 

[Rebels57]

Was going to vote Andrae until he lost his man in front again for a GA and got benched after two shifts today.

Went Tanner. Cates deserves some consideration in this area as well. He had a great year.

But what kind of odds would you put on him becoming a top 4 defenseman? I could get on board that he has a non-zero chance at being a top 4 defenseman, but his top 4 potential is mostly tied to his age. You have to consider his floor as well, which is considerably lower imo. Like I think Connor McClennon has middle six upside. Which is probably more than say a guy like Cates, but there's also a chance that McClennon is just a good Junior player that is nothing more than a AAAA player at the professional level. I would be surprised if Cates isn't at least a decent NHL 4th liner and relatively quickly at that, therefore I can't vote McClennon higher than Cates because he theoretically has higher upside.

If Andrae has true top 4 upside, he should be ranked much higher than 6th.

This isn't the best way to look at it, but he has to beat out both Zamula and York in addition to Millman and Ginning to be a top 4 defenseman here. Those are just the LHD (+ Myers who has already established himself as a Top 4 guy) in the organization right now. Tough sledding.

Provorov
Sanheim
Myers
York
Zamula
Millman

All good points for sure.

The good thing about D prospects too is that they tend to carry strong trade value. Maybe he doesnt beat out all of those LHD in the system but is used as a piece in a trade to bolster the team elsewhere? Or maybe he makes someone else expendable?

 

[DancingPanther]

IT'S TIME BABYYYYYYY

(I already voted Laz. I'm not going bpa. I'm voting based on my ranking)

 

[pit]

This isn't the best way to look at it, but he has to beat out both Zamula and York in addition to Millman and Ginning

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

All good points for sure.

The good thing about D prospects too is that they tend to carry strong trade value. Maybe he doesnt beat out all of those LHD in the system but is used as a piece in a trade to bolster the team elsewhere? Or maybe he makes someone else expendable?

They do, but the problem we have is that management has to be willing to make forward-thinking moves. Jojo and I have both mentioned how Brandon Carlo is a perfect example of the way a player's value can leap fast and hard with NHL exposure. For the Flyers, we get a guy like Hogg. We all know that he sucks ass, but joking truths aside, he earned a shit ton of (relative) value playing in the NHL, and there are approximately 30 other teams desperate for help on the blueline. We should have moved him.

Then we move on to 39-year-old Mark Friedman. Having moved Hogg in this hypothetical, we promote Friedman to take his place, see his value boost, rinse and repeat, accruing draft capital. But Chuck's a total bottom and hockey is stupid, so here we are.

 

[Appleyard]

I think Andrae's ceiling is pretty high tbh...

if he does not develop "that" much he will be a top pairing SHL Dman who is one of the best PP QBs in the league with solid defence. He has been very good on D vs his own age group. Great blue-line defence and strong for his size.

What are the question marks really?

Size? But he is strong and solid in his own zone.
Speed? Yeh... I get that one. That is my only real worry. He is a good small area skater with good agility, but his stride needs work.

I think the stride issue is the only thing that will keep him from being an NHLer.

He is better than Ginning right now in both ends.

Has had ~4 or so bad moments in SHL to start the year. But also not much puck luck on top of that with his 94 PDO.

But in pre-season he was HV71s BEST player and for the most part has held his own in the SHL at 18... while playing with the SHL equivalent of Robert Hagg's.

And he has the 3rd best Corsi on the D after two Swedish NT Dmen. Yeh, has made some glaring mistakes... but a lot of positives too.

 

[Alex91]

My concerns isn’t him playing in SHL or AHL, it’s at the NHL level. I have watched a lot of Erik Brannstorm, esp last year in Belleville and in Ottawa, and he is a very different player when the players get bigger and faster.

That being said Andrae gets my vote here at 6, and I hope he plans out. The skills are def there to be something special.

 

[CapnZin]

ALLISON

 

[landsbergfan]

I think Andrae's ceiling is pretty high tbh...

if he does not develop "that" much he will be a top pairing SHL Dman who is one of the best PP QBs in the league with solid defence. He has been very good on D vs his own age group. Great blue-line defence and strong for his size.

What are the question marks really?

Size? But he is strong and solid in his own zone.
Speed? Yeh... I get that one. That is my only real worry. He is a good small area skater with good agility, but his stride needs work.

I think the stride issue is the only thing that will keep him from being an NHLer.

He is better than Ginning right now in both ends.

Has had ~4 or so bad moments in SHL to start the year. But also not much puck luck on top of that with his 94 PDO.

But in pre-season he was HV71s BEST player and for the most part has held his own in the SHL at 18... while playing with the SHL equivalent of Robert Hagg's.

And he has the 3rd best Corsi on the D after two Swedish NT Dmen. Yeh, has made some glaring mistakes... but a lot of positives too.

what is better than NHL ready?

 

[FLYguy3911]

All good points for sure.

The good thing about D prospects too is that they tend to carry strong trade value. Maybe he doesnt beat out all of those LHD in the system but is used as a piece in a trade to bolster the team elsewhere? Or maybe he makes someone else expendable?

Defensemen have a lot of trade value...if they are good. They are also more volatile than forwards. Seemingly every defensemen taken in Ginning's range in 2018 got traded except for him. Outside chance the Flyers actually like him and don't want to trade him, but more likely he's not good and other teams don't value him.

Like I said, I don't think comparing him to every defenseman in the system and playing the what if game is the best strategy, but it can put things into perspective. Yes, the Flyers may be the best drafting team in the league when it comes to defensemen (and ironically maybe the worst team at deploying them) but what are the chances that the Flyers have this many true top 4 talents in the system? The Flyers also haven't done so well drafting Swedish defensemen in the second round.

Whether you choose to look at models based off of draft position or draft year production, Andrae has a ~15-20% chance of being a full-time NHLer. Chances he gives you top 4 value are probably approaching single digits, especially if he's in Philadelphia where the opportunity is not as great as other places (Production = Talent + Opportunity). Hypothetically, is the ~10% chance Andrae is a top 4 defenseman worth more than 4+ years of Laczynski who is likely to give you positive value in a bottom six role as soon as next year?

Andrae was one of the more divisive prospects in the draft it seemed. People either loved him or hated him. The two main guys at Elite Prospects didn't even rank him. I think he's a fine prospect, but it's a tough profile to fall in love with unless you absolutely love the skill and smarts. I'm personally not there yet.

I'm glad someone got the joke.

 

[deadhead]

Gee. skill and smarts, do they have much value in a defenseman?

Actually, I'd say on defense, except for a few uber talents, a smart efficient defenseman is more valuable than a talented but flawed/inconsistent one. That's b/c most defensemen score around 20 points a year at ES, and usually only 1 plays a major PP role. So the value of most of your defensemen is playing a role well, whether a smart puck moving defenseman who is defensively responsible and good at clearing the puck, a big body who understands positioning and keeps the crease clean, or an above average skater with offensive skillls who can drive the offense without being a black hole on defense.

 

[BernieParent]

It's gonna be Linus "Floating Mass of Swine Flesh" Hogberg eventually.

Hopefully that nickname catches on. The easier alternative would be Ice Swine.