2020-2021 St. Louis Blues: Generic Thread Titles Be Damned (Part II)

[Brian39]

His xG share is mostly held up by his minutes with Krug in the first few games.

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I find it interesting how high Parayko's FA/60 (unblocked shots against per 60) is compared to the rest of the team and how it even stays constant when paired with Krug. That signals to me that the Blues are probably hemmed in their own end a lot with Parayko on the ice. Since then he's been paired with Scandella, Dunn, and now Gunnarsson all with very poor results.

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Every pairing he's been on besides with Krug has really struggled to generate offense. We can try pairing him with Krug again, but considering how poorly he's played with everyone else I wonder if his results with Krug were a bit of an anomaly. You're right it's hard to imagine us sitting him, but I'm not so sure he isn't a liability.

You definitely aren't wrong, but I think that the difference in numbers is more about usage and less about Krug propping up the numbers. In Parayko's minutes with Scandella, they started almost every shift in our zone, with a ludicrous 15% offensive zone start rate. Parayko and Mikkola started zero on-the-fly shifts in the offensive zone and have just 1 offensive zone faceoff together. Dunn and Parayko should have better numbers together because they have gotten pretty favorable usage. However, I also think that just looking at their xGF% makes them look worse than what they have done. In 77 minutes together, they have a total 2.13 xGA, 3 actual goals against and are above 50% in CF% and SF%. They are playing pretty low event hockey. Still allowing more than they should given their usage, but they aren't bleeding chances like you would expect if you paired Dunn with a non-NHL-caliber D man.

Again, you are correct that his time with Krug skews his numbers up, but I think it is less that Krug is carrying him and more that his usage with Scandella/Mikkola is so damn defense heavy that his possession numbers have no chance of being decent. We all loved J-Bo/Parayko last year and their xGF was 40.3%. To a certain degree, that number is a function of how you are used.

 

[Brian39]

I think we have heard views that it's too soon Mikkola take that spot. @Brian39 refer it that maybe later in this season it's right time for Mikkola - Parayko try-out.

In my eyes now should be time for it try-out, 'cus Scandella is out and when he's healthy he'll automatically slide with Parayko and we have missed try-out.

It wouldn't kill Mikkola to get that change, even it wouldn't work. I could take a bet Mikkola - Parayko are perfect d-pair.

I have say it since we draft Mikkola.

I'd like to see them playing together some right now, but every one of my comments about Mikkola/Parayko was in the context that you want Mikkola getting top 4 minutes with Parayko. I'd like to see Mikkola in the lineup, on the 3rd pair and situationally getting shifts with Parayko. He should not be Parayko's every day and regular partner. He has played fairly well in sheltered minutes this year. That doesn't mean he should go from 13 minutes a night to 20+ minutes a night.

Again, I want him in the lineup and don't think he should be scratched. However, it is hard to criticize the coaches for not playing him recently. We allowed 3+ goals in each of his last 3 games and he went -2 over those games despite playing less than 14 minutes a night in each. Since pulling him out of the lineup, we went 2-1 and allowed just one goal in 2 of those 3 games. I'm not suggesting that Mikkola was the reason we slumped or that the D tightened up exclusively because he was taken out of the lineup. But this "we should try Mikkola since nothing else is working" idea isn't an accurate summary of the team's recent play.

Losing 3 straight to the Coyotes pushed a ton of people pretty damn close to the ledge, so I don't think it is a fair argument to say we should have prioritized development over winning for the last week. The staff made adjustments to try and win games and it worked. We won 2 of the next 3 and the loss certainly wasn't on the defense.

 

[LGB]

You definitely aren't wrong, but I think that the difference in numbers is more about usage and less about Krug propping up the numbers. In Parayko's minutes with Scandella, they started almost every shift in our zone, with a ludicrous 15% offensive zone start rate. Parayko and Mikkola started zero on-the-fly shifts in the offensive zone and have just 1 offensive zone faceoff together. Dunn and Parayko should have better numbers together because they have gotten pretty favorable usage. However, I also think that just looking at their xGF% makes them look worse than what they have done. In 77 minutes together, they have a total 2.13 xGA, 3 actual goals against and are above 50% in CF% and SF%. They are playing pretty low event hockey. Still allowing more than they should given their usage, but they aren't bleeding chances like you would expect if you paired Dunn with a non-NHL-caliber D man.

Again, you are correct that his time with Krug skews his numbers up, but I think it is less that Krug is carrying him and more that his usage with Scandella/Mikkola is so damn defense heavy that his possession numbers have no chance of being decent. We all loved J-Bo/Parayko last year and their xGF was 40.3%. To a certain degree, that number is a function of how you are used.

In general I don't think zone starts have much of an effect on xG share based on what I've read, but over a small sample with such extreme usage it could have definitely impacted his numbers with Scandella. Overall though his zone starts with and without Krug are almost an identical %.

The Parayko - Dunn numbers are pretty weird. I would expect their xGF rate to go up if given more time together because it's just absurdly low in comparison to the rest of the team, but I think their xGA rate could go up along with it. I just hope they don't play him the Gunnarsson anymore. Ideally if he's going to be out there at less than 100% you definitely want to get him on a low-event pairing and maybe even limit his ice time a bit. The best solution might be to pair him with Mikkola and give Dunn - Bortuzzo more minutes. Could give him some shifts with Dunn or Krug situationally too. If that ends up being a disaster you can always put him back with Krug.

 

[Brian39]

In general I don't think zone starts have much of an effect on xG share based on what I've read, but over a small sample with such extreme usage it could have definitely impacted his numbers with Scandella. Overall though his zone starts with and without Krug are almost an identical %.

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The Parayko - Dunn numbers are pretty weird. I would expect their xGF rate to go up if given more time together because it's just absurdly low in comparison to the rest of the team, but I think their xGA rate could go up along with it. I just hope they don't play him the Gunnarsson anymore. Ideally if he's going to be out there at less than 100% you definitely want to get him on a low-event pairing and maybe even limit his ice time a bit. The best solution might be to pair him with Mikkola and give Dunn - Bortuzzo more minutes. Could give him some shifts with Dunn or Krug situationally too. If that ends up being a disaster you can always put him back with Krug.

Worth noting that if you sort by rates (so numbers per 60 minutes), you will see that Parayko is doing pretty much identically defensively with Krug vs without Krug. Actual goals allowed per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 are 2.4 with Krug vs 2.16 without. Expected goals against are 2.09 with Krug vs 2.24 without. The entire difference in his GF% and xGF% comes from the team's offensive performance when Parayko plays without Krug vs with Krug. Frankly, I don't think it is surprising that the team scores fewer goals and gets fewer chances when Parayko plays with Scandella/Mikkola/Gunnar than when he plays with Krug. Production when Dunn-Parayko are together should be higher, but given Dunn's wild inconsistency this year I'm not sure who is most to blame for that.

Parayko isn't playing like himself and hasn't been great. I just don't think he's been propped up by his numbers with Krug. I think he has been okay defensively all year and he's been asked to play a very defense-first role.

There isn't a direct correlation between zone starts and possession stats, but zone starts are a good proxy for usage. In the same way corsi is a good proxy for possession time without measuring possession time, zone starts do the same for usage. The eye test says that we rely on Parayko to shut down the other team's top 6 as the first priority and to drive offense as the 2nd priority. Hefty D zone starts supports that claim without actually taking the time to review shift logs to see who he was out against. Krug-Parayko and Dunn-Parayko were both asked to focus more on offense than Scandella-Parayko or Mikkola-Parayko. I can tell you that by watching the games and then I use zone starts to support that claim when I see that the latter 2 pairs basically never start in the offensive zone.

 

[Celtic Note]

The Blues really need to build a strong position in the standings early. April is going to be a really difficult month with most of our games against Vegas, Colorado and Minny.

Leading up to that month we have mostly SJ, LA and Anaheim.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

The Blues really need to build a strong position in the standings early. April is going to be a really difficult month with most of our games against Vegas, Colorado and Minny.

Leading up to that month we have mostly SJ, LA and Anaheim.

Hopefully we can get healthy by then as well

 

[joe galiba]

schwartz-thomas-vlad

that could be a line we add back in by mid march, plus having bozak available for d-zone faceoffs,
we have been playing without that talent in the lineup and are still in 1st in the west (although some teams have games in hand)
if someone told me this was where we would be back in September, I would have been extremely happy

 

[Brian39]

15 of the next 19 games are against the 3 California teams and that stretch of hockey gets us to the end of March.

And then April sees us play the Avs 5 times, the Knights twice, the Wild 6 times and the Yotes once.

Definitely a very clear split in the schedule, but I'm not going to be worried much if we enter April without a big cushion in the standings. The injuries have piled up. We should be fine so long as we can effectively tread water and stay in the top 4 over the next month. I don't expect us to steamroll through April, but we're also not going to just stop earning points. I think that even with a tough schedule we can keep pace with Arizona/Anaheim/LA/San Jose.

 

[Blueston]

Complete BS chat by JR today. Seemed to answer same questions over and over with non-answers:

• "I have been told what is wrong with Parayko but not 100% sure so I'm not going to tell you now"
• "I will write article on cap issues with Tarasenko return so I'm not going to tell you now"
• "Don't think Dunn returns 1st" (which given his past projections makes me more confident that he will)

Total waste of my time.

 

[mike1320]

Complete BS chat by JR today. Seemed to answer same questions over and over with non-answers:

• "I have been told what is wrong with Parayko but not 100% sure so I'm not going to tell you now"
• "I will write article on cap issues with Tarasenko return so I'm not going to tell you now"
• "Don't think Dunn returns 1st" (which given his past projections makes me more confident that he will)

Total waste of my time.

I guess you need to pay a subscription to see anything relevant from guys like JR going forward. No thanks. Hard pass.

 

[Blueston]

I guess you need to pay a subscription to see anything relevant from guys like JR going forward. No thanks. Hard pass.

Was for subscribers. He’s just terrible beat writer.

 

[mike1320]

Was for subscribers. He’s just terrible beat writer.

woof

 

[DoubleK81]

I guess you need to pay a subscription to see anything relevant from guys like JR going forward. No thanks. Hard pass.

JR rarely posts anything interesting aside from the occasional good puff piece. He provides no meaningful statistical insight to the team. I really wish we had someone who wasn't a glorified gossip columnist.

 

[mike1320]

JR rarely posts anything interesting aside from the occasional good puff piece. He provides no meaningful statistical insight to the team. I really wish we had someone who wasn't a glorified gossip columnist.

Strickland used to be a complete hack, but he's grown on me. I realize that he's not a beat writer per say...

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I like Lou Korac myself. But, he doesn't really say much at the same time either, he's also very independent where JR seems more of a player side voice (especially with Pietro) and Strickland is more of an organization side voice.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

What I would give to get Scott Wheeler to cover the Blues...

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Blais on the Covid list. I’m a little torn. I like seeing the depth guys getting a chance to play, and always feel good when one of those guys steps up. But if the Blues got a week off for a Covid break it might not be a bad thing right now.

 

[Spektre]

I think it’s safe to say Sanford will never have more than a 4 cylinder pushing his skates.

The guy has skills and a good shot but holy donkey balls,, skate harder son and consistently,, you know like every time you’re on the ice type of consistency

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I think it’s safe to say Sanford will never have more than a 4 cylinder pushing his skates.

The guy has skills and a good shot but holy donkey balls,, skate harder son and consistently,, you know like every time you’re on the ice type of consistency

Every once in a while he'll rent a supercharged V8, just wish he'd buy instead of renting.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

That number is more amazing on a team like the Blues who do not have a very high overall goal differential.

To be fair, our even strength goal differential is probably decent. Our overall differential is less impressive because our penalty kill has been brutal and our powerplay lacking but +/- is based on even strength.

 

[Brian39]

I guess you need to pay a subscription to see anything relevant from guys like JR going forward. No thanks. Hard pass.

I love my Athletic subscription, but it is 100% not worth it for the Blues coverage. They have a bunch of amazing hockey writers and I read a bit of their MLB coverage. I skip most of what JR writes and find that this board and the Blues subreddit keeps me plenty informed on the Blues.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Adding muscle can be a detriment to mobility and balance if it is done incorrectly. I am not saying that is Sanford’s case, but it happens. Case in point, Tarasenko has become less mobile by adding too much muscle and I believe it has come at the expense of his endurance.

Responding to this comment from Celtic Blue in the GDT. I think you may be right about Vlad, but in his case I feel it was a deliberate trade off in an attempt to strengthen his shoulder. It wasn’t a training accident where no one saw this happening. I’d be shocked if Blues’ players were making body changes like that without expert supervision from the team weighing in.

 

[The Note]

Yeah, The Athletic is in kind of a tough spot with STL sports coverage. JR is not my cup of tea outside of his pure reporting and Saxon is gone so the Cardinals - to my knowledge - don't currently have a beat writer. But the NFL/EPL coverage is very good as is the national MLB and NHL coverage. Just depends on what you're looking for.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Gunner is out for the rest of the Season with a right knee injury.

 

[WeWentBlues]

1.75M to LTIR with Gunner.

I would make a claim on Luke Schenn then who is on waivers today. 1 year at 800k.