2020-2021 St. Louis Blues: Well, ****.

[AjaxManifesto]

Blues series report card: One A- and too many F's

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Blues series report card: One A- and too many F's

Why do you just post links to Athletics articles? It’s one things if you have some comments or opinions about the piece, or why it should be of interest. But the naked link just looks like advertising.

 

[izzy]

 

[AjaxManifesto]

 

[Blueston]

Army said 20% of our team had COVID-19 and while recovered it affected them (sapped strength, less training, etc..). Which may help explain why some of our players were below expectations. Based on what was reported previously belief is Dunn, Borts, and Parayko had Covid. Has anyone else been identified? Or anyone else miss time that we can infer. Would think 1-3 more based on what he says.

Parayko was certainly not his normal self in playoffs. Dunn struggled. Borts didn’t play much.

 

[BlueDream]

Army said 20% of our team had COVID-19 and while recovered it affected them (sapped strength, less training, etc..). Which may help explain why some of our players were below expectations. Based on what was reported previously belief is Dunn, Borts, and Parayko had Covid. Has anyone else been identified? Or anyone else miss time that we can infer. Would think 1-3 more based on what he says.

Parayko was certainly not his normal self in playoffs. Dunn struggled. Borts didn’t play much.

That would make sense as those were 2 of the most disappointing players.

Thomas and Sundqvist weren’t terrible but not good either. They are 2 other guys that we needed more from.

 

[Blueston]

That would make sense as those were 2 of the most disappointing players.

Thomas and Sundqvist weren’t terrible but not good either. They are 2 other guys that we needed more from.

Was thinking maybe Sunny. His energy was lower than normal. Thomas was bad but he seemed to have energy just played poorly. Curious.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

From my pov it wouldn't surprise me if Colt, Dunn, Sunny, Gunner, Bortz, and/or Binnington had it. They all looked off. Especially Colt and Binnington.

 

[Eldon Reid]

If this quote is true from what JR wrote, the Blues are trying to get him super cheap. I'm thinking 8.5 AAV will get it done I'm guessing.

Armstrong and Meehan have kept it close to the vest, but NHL sources say they have exchanged numbers. The belief is that Pietrangelo asked for less than the eight-year, $72.5 million deal ($9.06 million average annual value) signed by Nashville’s Roman Josi in October and the Blues haven’t gone higher than $8 million AAV.

 

[The Note]

Not going higher than 8 seems pretty wild to me.

 

[simon IC]

I really hope they are not playing hardball with Pietrangelo. Not going above 8 seems pretty stingy to me, in fact, it is almost insulting. We really don't know what is going on, but lowballing our Captain after giving the contracts to Schenn and Faulk seems like a very, very stupid move to me.

 

[Brockon]

I really hope they are not playing hardball with Pietrangelo. Not going above 8 seems pretty stingy to me, in fact, it is almost insulting. We really don't know what is going on, but lowballing our Captain after giving the contracts to Schenn and Faulk seems like a very, very stupid move to me.

The market economy has drastically been altered since either of those deals was signed...

I think it would be incredibly short sighted as a player or agent to not lower their price unless the player doesn't care about how competitive their destination is in the mid term.

The flat cap is going to alter the amount of salary teams can/will offer to an extent.

 

[Alklha]

The article in The Athletic is interesting. The issue is that the information in it is likely coming from Don Meehan/Newport, so it's a matter of how much we want to believe the numbers. The Blues aren't going to be letting those numbers leak to LeBrun, they have nothing to benefit from it.

If the timeline in the article roughly lays out is accurate? That's concerning. The implication is that the initial ask, or very close to the initial ask, from Pietrangelo was less than Josi. If that is true then that is an extremely reasonable starting position and suggests that Pietrangelo wanted to stay and wanted a quick negotiation. Armstrong lowballed, paused and now COVID has changed the landscape.

If I was Pietrangelo, I'm not changing the lowest number I'd be willing to take to stay in that scenario. He took a reasonable position early, wanted to get a deal done and Armstrong chose to pay lesser players first. The lower cap is now Armstrong's problem, Pietrangelo can still get paid elsewhere.

But, those numbers are either made up or coming from a partisan source.

 

[The Note]

I will simply never understand signing Faulk to that extension.

 

[MissouriMook]

The market economy has drastically been altered since either of those deals was signed...

I think it would be incredibly short sighted as a player or agent to not lower their price unless the player doesn't care about how competitive their destination is in the mid term.

The flat cap is going to alter the amount of salary teams can/will offer to an extent.

The "market" in sports isn't generally like the "market" in other areas. Regardless of what happens going forward, the cap isn't going down next season, and in any cap climate the top players still get paid, it is the players further down in the pecking order that generally get screwed by the cap crunch. I'm not suggesting that there is a Doughty or Karlsson deal waiting for him out there, but to say that Petro and his agent should automatically lower their expectations based on a flat cap is not realistic.

Ultimately, I think this gets worked out if that article is close to truly defining the gap between the sides. Army is shrewd, and he know that if he signs Petro -then- frees up the space he'll get worked over on the trades he needs to make. He also knows that if he makes the moves first -then- comes back with a "final offer" to Petro and Meehan they will hold firmer to their price because he's already tipped his hand. The free agency moves he made in 2018 show me that he is patiently waiting to line things up to work in his favor so he can move quickly to make every deal he needs to make to get Petro signed and the roster cap compliant.

 

[execwrite1]

You can't negotiate if you aren't willing to walk away.

If I'm Army, my final offer is 5 years x $8 million per. Anything else will cripple the Blues cap situation.

Constant mistake is paying future dollars for past performance. It never works.

 

[MissouriMook]

You can't negotiate if you aren't willing to walk away.

If I'm Army, my final offer is 5 years x $8 million per. Anything else will cripple the Blues cap situation.

Constant mistake is paying future dollars for past performance. It never works.

I think you're ignoring the concept that lowballing what the market will almost certainly provide in either longer term, higher AAV (or both) isn't really a valid offer, it's a token for your fans to be able to say you tried.

The bottom line is that it is far more likely that Petro will still be in a physical condition to be a valuable asset in years 6-8 than Schenn. His game will almost certainly age better, and the team had no issues giving Schenn that term. One thing that I think works in Army's favor relative to the Josi deal is that the Josi deal almost certainly includes some "retro pay" given that his expiring deal was at $4M a year whereas Petro is coming off a $6.5M a year deal. I still have no concerns that both sides will agree on something in the $8.25M-$8.5M range if the cap space can be found. The first year of the deal is really the only sticking point relative to cap space.

 

[Brockon]

I think you're ignoring the concept that lowballing what the market will almost certainly provide in either longer term, higher AAV (or both) isn't really a valid offer, it's a token for your fans to be able to say you tried.

The bottom line is that it is far more likely that Petro will still be in a physical condition to be a valuable asset in years 6-8 than Schenn. His game will almost certainly age better, and the team had no issues giving Schenn that term. One thing that I think works in Army's favor relative to the Josi deal is that the Josi deal almost certainly includes some "retro pay" given that his expiring deal was at $4M a year whereas Petro is coming off a $6.5M a year deal. I still have no concerns that both sides will agree on something in the $8.25M-$8.5M range if the cap space can be found. The first year of the deal is really the only sticking point relative to cap space.

I agree with the majority of what you're saying here, but 2020-21 despite all the contracts coming off the books is going to be another difficult off-season with 12 guys to sign and 34.2m in space (pre Petro extension).

Schwartz (raise from 5.35m), Thomas (bridged at 2m?), a starter (ballpark 5-6m), Kyrou (bridged at 1.5m?), Barbashev (2.5m a la Sunny?), Sanford (what 2.5m?). I don't feel like those numbers are right - but even Schwartz signing up for the same contract is still 20.35m there, add Petro at 8.15 brings us to 28.5m of 34.2m.

Thats 5.7m to sign 6 more guys including a backup, replace Gunny, replace Dunn (or fit Dunn in with this summer's deal) etc. And Schwartz is getting a raise to come back, so realistically thats probably 4m (not 5.7m) - and Thomas doesn't bridge for sub 2m...

Unless Faulk gets snagged by Seattle, the 2020-21 off-season is also going to tight. And that's after losing the Bozak, Steen and Allen contracts that are overpayments relative to what they give us.

 

[MissouriMook]

I agree with the majority of what you're saying here, but 2020-21 despite all the contracts coming off the books is going to be another difficult off-season with 12 guys to sign and 34.2m in space (pre Petro extension).

Schwartz (raise from 5.35m), Thomas (bridged at 2m?), a starter (ballpark 5-6m), Kyrou (bridged at 1.5m?), Barbashev (2.5m a la Sunny?), Sanford (what 2.5m?). I don't feel like those numbers are right - but even Schwartz signing up for the same contract is still 20.35m there, add Petro at 8.15 brings us to 28.5m of 34.2m.

Thats 5.7m to sign 6 more guys including a backup, replace Gunny, replace Dunn (or fit Dunn in with this summer's deal) etc. And Schwartz is getting a raise to come back, so realistically thats probably 4m (not 5.7m) - and Thomas doesn't bridge for sub 2m...

Unless Faulk gets snagged by Seattle, the 2020-21 off-season is also going to tight. And that's after losing the Bozak, Steen and Allen contracts that are overpayments relative to what they give us.

I don't think the issue is a problematic as you may think. Here is my take on the 2021-2022 cap situation:

Current 2021-2022 cap space - $34,200,000 (7 F, 4 D and 0 G under contract)

Schwartz - $6,500,000 (same as Schenn)
Sanford - $2,000,000
Barbashev - $1,750,000
Thomas - $2,500,000 (bridge deal unless he breaks out big next season)
Kyrou - $1,500,000 (bridge deal like Sanford's 2nd deal)
2 league min players @ $800k each

Petro - $8,500,000
Dunn - $1,500,000 (2nd year of bridge like Sanford's 2nd deal)
Perunovich - $925K (Mikkola would be slightly lower)

Binnington - $5,500,000
Husso - $750K

That's $33,025,000 to round out the roster to 23 players, leaving $1,175,000 in cap space.

Now you have to identify that one of the players currently under contract or on the list above will be taken by Seattle. Chances are, you're replacing them with someone cheaper (like Kostin's $863,333 if we lose a forward) especially if you have to go a little higher than the figures above based on exceptional performance. That also doesn't take into account any cap trimming this offseason if they move someone other than Steen, Bozak or Allen to free up space, but it also doesn't account for any lingering cap hit if one of those three is bought out, but I see that as unlikely.

 

[Alklha]

TSN/CapFriendly saying that we're going to have a cap overage of ~$720k carry into next season. We can opt to have it split between next season & 21/22, which is almost certainly what we'd do. So we've probably got about ~$2.6m in cap space just now.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Really need a Hossa type LTIR situation to resolve our cap crunch.

Tarasenko's unfortunate re-injury could be a blessing in disguise. His 7.5M could in theory be off the books for the balance of the 20-21 regular season.

We don't know what the 20-21 NHL season will even look like at this point. Planning to start December 1 but what changes are made? 82 games with teams traveling is probably not a realistic option.

 

[Brian39]

TSN/CapFriendly saying that we're going to have a cap overage of ~$720k carry into next season. We can opt to have it split between next season & 21/22, which is almost certainly what we'd do. So we've probably got about ~$2.6m in cap space just now.

I'm curious what bonuses were met. We only have $915k in possible bonuses and I wouldn't have guessed that Thomas hit all/most of his.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I'm curious what bonuses were met. We only have $915k in possible bonuses and I wouldn't have guessed that Thomas hit all/most of his.

JBo accounted for $250k of the potential and hit none of them (65 games played and team wins 2 playoff rounds with him playing 50% of games). I just don't see how we got to $720k

 

[Alklha]

JBo accounted for $250k of the potential and hit none of them (65 games played and team wins 2 playoff rounds with him playing 50% of games). I just don't see how we got to $720k

I've not actually looked at all the details related to bonuses, but I believe that Bouwmeester might actually get a payout on the games played. If he had played the full 65 games then he'd have got the full $125k.

However, I think there is a uniform 70/82 prorating for all bonuses that hadn't been met. As Bouwmeester played in 56 games then that is prorated to 65.6 games, so he is eligible for a prorated bonus. That would be ~$107k.

I'm still not sure how we're at $720k, but I'm sure well see the breakdown once the season is finalised.

 

[Robb_K]

Sad to see our run end, mostly because I just discovered this forum a couple weeks back and have enjoyed being here. Looking forward to hanging around for a full season!

Count me in the camp that our play in the bubble is not representative of how I expect us to play going forward under normal circumstances. However, I can't help but wonder how "normal" next season will be. I doubt that the NHL can afford to play in hub cities without fans for a full season, but I imagine that the gameday experience will still be different from the one in which we thrived last year. If guys are still isolated from their families for months at a time, I wouldn't be surprised to see us struggle with an extended Cup hangover.

In terms of roster construction, I hope we run as much of this same roster back next year as possible. This team won a Cup and was the top team in the West going into the break, and the only thing that changed was a global pandemic hitting the pause button. A lot of our guys are being maligned for their play these past few weeks, but I still believe it can be turned around. How we do it financially I'm not sure, but that's why I'm here and not in the front office.

It turns out that several of them were playing with weakness from having contracted The Covid-19 Virus. And, although they were cleared by doctors as virus-free (e.g. "recovered", and had no overt, easily discernable symptoms anymore, their bodies were left weaker.