Prospect Info: 2020-2021 Prospects Thread

[Tobias Kahun]

I think that's mostly true for the KHL too and he is proven there. Francouz is essentially the same size and much older and at the same age was putting up similar numbers in the Czech league that he was in the KHL and Francouz NHL numbers have been good.

On the prospect cards he produces it has height there so I believe it's involved somewhat.

Konovalov may only be 5'11 but he is quite filled out. He is 2 inches shorter than a guy like Grubauer yet is heavier.

Saros and Nedelkovic are around his height too.

Being filled out as a goalie doesn't really mean much with how big their equipment is.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I think that's mostly true for the KHL too and he is proven there. Francouz is essentially the same size and much older and at the same age was putting up similar numbers in the Czech league that he was in the KHL and Francouz NHL numbers have been good.

On the prospect cards he produces it has height there so I believe it's involved somewhat.

Konovalov may only be 5'11 but he is quite filled out. He is 2 inches shorter than a guy like Grubauer yet is heavier.

Saros and Nedelkovic are around his height too.

I'm not questioning Konovalov as a player, I believe in his potential and don't think his height will hold him back. I was wondering whether the 93% NHLer probability factored in his height, because historically, goalies of his stature do have a tougher time making it.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I'd rank our prospects like this at the moment:

1. Evan Bouchard
2. Dylan Holloway
3. Philip Broberg
4. Dmitri Samorukov
5. Xavier Bourgault
6. Carter Savoie
7. Raphael Lavoie
8. Ty Tullio
9. Michael Kesslering
10. Ilya Konovalov
11. Tyler Benson
12. Stuart Skinner

Everyone else I'd classify as a longshot to become an NHL regular.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I'd rank our prospects like this at the moment:

1. Evan Bouchard
2. Dylan Holloway
3. Philip Broberg
4. Dmitri Samorukov
5. Xavier Bourgault
6. Carter Savoie
7. Raphael Lavoie
8. Tyler Benson
9. Ty Tullio
10. Ilya Konovalov
11. Michael Kesslering
12. Stuart Skinner

Everyone else I'd classify as a longshot to become an NHL regular.

I'd move Konovalov to 5 and then say the top 5 are the only guys who have a good shot to be NHL players, the rest are long shots

 

[snipes]

@ConnorMcMullet fire up a draft prospects rankings for us to vote on

 

[Senor Catface]

@ConnorMcMullet fire up a draft prospects rankings for us to vote on

 

[Soli]

“Zavi Boar Go” lining up on LW on 4th line. Tullio 4th line RW on the other team.

 

[48g90a138pts]

Big Boys Bomb about to go off on Edmonton Oilers | Edmonton Journal

 

[CycloneSweep]

“Zavi Boar Go” lining up on LW on 4th line. Tullio 4th line RW on the other team.

Pretty good indication that neither make the team.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

Pretty good indication that neither make the team.

I wouldn’t put much stock into this camp. Maybe bourgault and bourque absolutely dominate to start the Q season and team Canada decides to take that proven chemistry on the world junior team. I’m not getting my hopes up though as there’s a lot of elite scoring options Canada could go, especially with all the elite underage talent this year hard to guess how the roster turns out at this point

 

[Senor Catface]

Perfetti and Pelletier were 4th line for Team Red last year and made the final roster, didn't they?

 

[North]

View attachment 458660

Perfetti and Pelletier were 4th line for Team Red last year and made the final roster, didn't they?

They did indeed.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Here's my thoughts for the Top Hopefuls.
1. Philip Broberg: three years pro development before the age of 20. High ceiling, can he reach it?
2. Evan Bouchard: NHL now guy maybe 2nd pair by late next season with shot & puck distribution. Key is defensive play.
3. Dylan Holloway: Big, aggressive puck hunting forward. Only questions - how soon & centre or wing?
4. Dmitri Samorukov: Big defender with a lot of utility. Will junior offence translate or physical, shutdown?
5. Raphael Lavoie: Big shoot first scoring winger - yes please. Continue to refine pace of play and man strength.
6. Xavier Bourgault: project top nine forward with lots of utility - centre/wing, 200 foot game. Will take time.
7. Stuart Skinner: Big pro year with division only competition. Excellent size and needs more pro reps to grow further.
8. Carter Savoie: Small man big shot. Quality mid-draft draft pick with close to home intel. College aids development physically and growing out his two way play.
9. Tyler Benson: All pro seasoning is done. Next step to see if he can handle NHL speed of game likely as bottom six wing.
10. Michael Kesselring: Raw than Japanese Sashimi. Needs man strength growth and at least two years of professional competition to see if there's an NHL player here.
11. Ty Tullio: Fiesty gamer personality has fasttracked some pandemic pro time in Europe and being around the Bako team's stretch run. Big development year pending with peer competition. Another solid mid-draft type pick.
12. Ilya Konovalov: Welcome to North America, let's see what ya got. Solid pro experience and very good toolkit who could be a playa.

More questions in the 6 to 12 range with players at different ages, stages of development and levels of competition. This will shift and change a lot I would imagine with return to normal schedules and development. Wildcard guys for me are Niemelainen and Desharnais. Kemp too.

 

[Soli]

French connecting. L’Heureux having himself a camp it seems.

 

[Zaddy]

The analytics part of it is a model that does the projecting based on how they match up with other players that have made the NHL.

Basically Konovalov has a 93% chance of being an NHLer by their model because 93% of all goalies in the KHL, at his age, with his numbers have made it.

Would be really interested to see what that sample size looks like. If it only takes into account Russian goalies that have been drafted at that age...then what does it really say? There are really not a lot of Russian goalies being drafted, and the ones who do are usually high-end prospects. Also, what counts as "have made it"? Played 1 NHL GP? What's the cutoff/criteria?

 

[McDNicks17]

Would be really interested to see what that sample size looks like. If it only takes into account Russian goalies that have been drafted at that age...then what does it really say? There are really not a lot of Russian goalies being drafted, and the ones who do are usually high-end prospects. Also, what counts as "have made it"? Played 1 NHL GP? What's the cutoff/criteria?

Sounds like his data set goes back almost 30 years. Not too sure how many KHL goalies would be in there. The draft age doesn't really matter. It compares D+1, D+2, etc. years.

I'm not super familiar with the model. It's definitely a lot more complicated than how I tried to paraphrase it. It's basically NHLe with his own tweaks if you're familiar with that.

 

[belair]

So he says Bouchard is really our only skater of note. Interesting



So only Bouchard has stat potential. Holloway and Broberg just complimentary

This guy has the Leafs fourth on his rankings, which should speak volumes as to how much you should value his ability to project future NHL talent.

The Leafs 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts are looking like complete busts at this point unless one of Sandin or Liljegren can actually establish themselves soon. So I'm not sure where Bader sees an 'amazing number of future NHLers' in that system.

Besides Amirov, Robertson and the other two mentioned, that system is pretty much barren of quality prospects. So much so that I'd probably consider Pavel Gogolev, who they just signed as a UFA, as one of their top ten prospects.

 

[CycloneSweep]

This guy has the Leafs fourth on his rankings, which should speak volumes as to how much you should value his ability to project future NHL talent.

The Leafs 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts are looking like complete busts at this point unless one of Sandin or Liljegren can actually establish themselves soon. So I'm not sure where Bader sees an 'amazing number of future NHLers' in that system.

Besides Amirov, Robertson and the other two mentioned, that system is pretty much barren of quality prospects. So much so that I'd probably consider Pavel Gogolev, who they just signed as a UFA, as one of their top ten prospects.

It's all based on guys with similar production at lower levels. Making the NHL. The way they draft seeks to be grabbing guys with high production with flaws and hope they work it out

 

[belair]

It's all based on guys with similar production at lower levels. Making the NHL. The way they draft seeks to be grabbing guys with high production with flaws and hope they work it out

It hasn't been.

 

[Zaddy]

Sounds like his data set goes back almost 30 years. Not too sure how many KHL goalies would be in there. The draft age doesn't really matter. It compares D+1, D+2, etc. years.

I'm not super familiar with the model. It's definitely a lot more complicated than how I tried to paraphrase it. It's basically NHLe with his own tweaks if you're familiar with that.

Either way I feel like it wouldn't work too well for Russian goalies. It might be a model that works really well for players from Sweden, Finland, CHL etc but I think there are too many variables to consider for it to work well in this specific case.

Also if it doesn't take into account draft age then that's one variable missing already since Konovalov was a triple overager when he was selected. And obviously size is something that matters for goalies too.

But most importantly looking at save percentages for goalies in KHL really doesn't tell you much because it's such a low-scoring league and where even average goaltenders has insane numbers. It appears to me that a goalie's numbers in KHL is more down to the system the team plays and how good its defensive players are, and then the goalie's numbers is a byproduct of that.

For instance, Konovalov's .930 svs% in 18/19 may look good but wasn't that special. His backup Alexander Salak had slightly better GAA and slightly worse SV% at .922, but had slightly better numbers in the playoffs both in GAA and SV%. The third-string goalie on that team had 1.30 GAA and .953 svs%, albeit in only five games but all of this together paints a pretty clear picture that Konovalov's numbers that year wasn't really about him but about the team.

This past season Konovalov lost the starting job to NHL flame-out Eddie Pasquale, but again both of them had near identical numbers, Pasquale a .925 and Konovalov .923. Season before that Konovalov had .912 in 40 games while his backup had .927 in 25 games.

So yeah...there's nothing in his numbers that, to me, suggests that he is anything special. That, in combination with his size, makes me highly dubious about how good of a prospect he is, but I haven't seen much footage on him so I guess it is possible that he looks great in the eye test and is a legit NHL prospect, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Either way I feel like it wouldn't work too well for Russian goalies. It might be a model that works really well for players from Sweden, Finland, CHL etc but I think there are too many variables to consider for it to work well in this specific case.

Also if it doesn't take into account draft age then that's one variable missing already since Konovalov was a triple overager when he was selected. And obviously size is something that matters for goalies too.

But most importantly looking at save percentages for goalies in KHL really doesn't tell you much because it's such a low-scoring league and where even average goaltenders has insane numbers. It appears to me that a goalie's numbers in KHL is more down to the system the team plays and how good its defensive players are, and then the goalie's numbers is a byproduct of that.

For instance, Konovalov's .930 svs% in 18/19 may look good but wasn't that special. His backup Alexander Salak had slightly better GAA and slightly worse SV% at .922, but had slightly better numbers in the playoffs both in GAA and SV%. The third-string goalie on that team had 1.30 GAA and .953 svs%, albeit in only five games but all of this together paints a pretty clear picture that Konovalov's numbers that year wasn't really about him but about the team.

This past season Konovalov lost the starting job to NHL flame-out Eddie Pasquale, but again both of them had near identical numbers, Pasquale a .925 and Konovalov .923. Season before that Konovalov had .912 in 40 games while his backup had .927 in 25 games.

So yeah...there's nothing in his numbers that, to me, suggests that he is anything special. That, in combination with his size, makes me highly dubious about how good of a prospect he is, but I haven't seen much footage on him so I guess it is possible that he looks great in the eye test and is a legit NHL prospect, but I'm not holding my breath.

I've read stuff from guys who watched him in the KHL and have pretty glowing reviews about him. Smaller but doesn't seem like it and pretty athletic

 

[GrinningBuddha]

 

[Soli]

 

[Soli]

EDIT: Oilers come out with the gif.

Oilers pick Bourgault saves his best for last at Canada's camp

The first play is Xavi's goal as he drives the net, the next sequence is his 2nd assist, the play to the point before the tip in front.

Good showing with Bolduc, building chemistry never hurts your chances. Maybe they get fixated on bringing an all QMJHL line. Will be interesting to see if the Q or the Dub have a leg up on the OHL guys heading into December.

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[Oilhawks]

EDIT: Oilers come out with the gif.

Oilers pick Bourgault saves his best for last at Canada's camp

The first play is Xavi's goal as he drives the net, the next sequence is his 2nd assist, the play to the point before the tip in front.

Good showing with Bolduc, building chemistry never hurts your chances. Maybe they get fixated on bringing an all QMJHL line. Will be interesting to see if the Q or the Dub have a leg up not the OHL guys heading into December.

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Sounds like he has a spot locked up. French connection line