Prospect Info: 2020-2021 Prospect Thread (CHL, NCAA, Europe) Part II

[Foppa2118]

So Bednar's system is all about applying pressure to the puck carrier to create turnovers? It sure doesn't seem very effective at that then considering this team gets very few of those and is usually having to attack defenses that are already set up and waiting for them instead of odd number breaks in transition. Based on this site, the avs takeaway numbers rank in the bottom third of the nhl despite all their speed and effort. I would really like it if the avs could create more transition opportunities because it's much easier to score that way, right now it seems like the team does a lot of work for not much reward. When they do score a lot, it's usually because they were able to come at the other team in such waves that it broke them. It felt like we got a lot more transition opportunities when Roy was coach.

Another thing I noticed is that it seems like our players are always getting out numbered in puck battles. The other team will be sending 4 guys while the avs try to fend them off with 2 or 3 while the other guys stand there watching even in our own defensive zone.

Here Jost does a good job of winning the puck back but then is immediately surrounded by 2 if not 3 blues players IN HIS OWN ZONE and is forced to give the puck back while all his teammates stand around watching. Girard just watches his guy go and stands in front of the net guarding nobody like he usually does. If the scheme is supposed to be good shouldn't your team have the numbers advantage?

Just look at how the team plays on the forecheck and the back check. When the opposition is trying to leave the zone, Av player are supposed to be moving their feet to jump on the puck carrier. Then if they make a pass, someone jumps on that guy, and instead of the first Av finishing his check, he does a flyby and skates back so he's in position to jump on another puck carrier if the puck comes near him.

And all of this isn't just with players skating at 50%. Bednar wants his guys hustling at like 90%+ or it's not effective.

It isn't just about creating turnovers. It's about rushing passes, so team's don't kill you with their transition game. This leads to passes that aren't quite on the tape, or or need to be won with a 50/50 battle. And a lot of this leads to teams not being able to setup in the O zone, and then the Avs break up the play and get the puck back in the D zone, for Makar/Girard/Toews to skate it out, instead of the traditional turnover in the neutral zone. That's more Vegas' style.

The video you showed is of their D zone play. That's a different thing. Bednar doesn't want them being too aggressive here, which is why he didn't like that Z would look for so many big hits. He wanted him in position to be able to defend.

That video looks like a really bad shift to me, possible when they were tired. They don't usually struggle with getting the puck out like that, unless they're not on their game. They usually support each other much better, and get the puck out a lot easier.

 

[Foppa2118]

Still disagree. Because if failure to do those things resulted in otherwise good players getting the boot, then Saad would’ve fizzled out a while ago. I think in most cases when the Avs move on from a player, he just wasn’t a good player anymore. Or never was in the first place.

If Bednar has a blind spot—and all coaches do unfortunately—it’s Compher. He just refuses to believe the guy is a one-dimensional 4th line scrub. Maybe because he tends to work hard, though I’d argue he sure has looked disengaged this season.

I think we just see Bednar's system differently. Saad plays Bednar's system very well. That's why I was pushing for them to bring him in, because I knew he'd be a perfect fit. He doesn't look like he's skating fast, but it's just an illusion because of his stride. He gets to where he needs to be like Soda does, and he's always got an active stick, and he's usually giving good 2nd and 3rd efforts in his puck battles, that are often successful at keeping the play alive in the O zone.

Compher is exactly what I'm talking about. Bednar falls for these players who don't always bring much to the table, but they play the way he wants. In Compher's case, he loves that JT has the speed to constantly be pressuring puck carriers. He does this well so Bednar keeps him in the lineup. Same with Kerfoot, though Kerfoot played better than Compher has this year.

It was the same with Ben Street his first year. He didn't really do anything well, but he played Bednar's system the way he wanted, so Bednar started raving about him early on.

As opposed to guys like Iginla and McLeod who didn't really want to adapt their game for Bednar, they just played the same way. Both had their A's taken away and were moved Bednar's first year. We heard whispers of a rift between Bednar and the vets on the team, because they didn't like how Bednar was treating them. They didn't think they were getting the respect vets usually get, but this was just Bednar insisting on players playing the way he wanted. He wanted to set the tone his first year, and he didn't want to budge from what he wanted. This rubbed some guys the wrong way.

I'm not saying I like this about Bednar. I really don't think it's necessary to be that hard line, and I think they can get away with being a more physical team, without sacrificing too much of what Bednar wants them to do, and I don't think as highly as he does about someone like Compher, and especially Street, but that's what he likes. All coaches have their favorites and little idiosyncrasies that other people aren't fans of.

 

[Pokecheque]

I think we just see Bednar's system differently. Saad plays Bednar's system very well. That's why I was pushing for them to bring him in, because I knew he'd be a perfect fit. He doesn't look like he's skating fast, but it's just an illusion because of his stride. He gets to where he needs to be like Soda does, and he's always got an active stick, and he's usually giving good 2nd and 3rd efforts in his puck battles, that are often successful at keeping the play alive in the O zone.

Compher is exactly what I'm talking about. Bednar falls for these players who don't always bring much to the table, but they play the way he wants. In Compher's case, he loves that JT has the speed to constantly be pressuring puck carriers. He does this well so Bednar keeps him in the lineup. Same with Kerfoot, though Kerfoot played better than Compher has this year.

It was the same with Ben Street his first year. He didn't really do anything well, but he played Bednar's system the way he wanted, so Bednar started raving about him early on.

As opposed to guys like Iginla and McLeod who didn't really want to adapt their game for Bednar, they just played the same way. Both had their A's taken away and were moved Bednar's first year. We heard whispers of a rift between Bednar and the vets on the team, because they didn't like how Bednar was treating them. They didn't think they were getting the respect vets usually get, but this was just Bednar insisting on players playing the way he wanted. He wanted to set the tone his first year, and he didn't want to budge from what he wanted. This rubbed some guys the wrong way.

I'm not saying I like this about Bednar. I really don't think it's necessary to be that hard line, and I think they can get away with being a more physical team, without sacrificing too much of what Bednar wants them to do, and I don't think as highly as he does about someone like Compher, and especially Street, but that's what he likes. All coaches have their favorites and little idiosyncrasies that other people aren't fans of.

Iginla and McLeod were not drummed out because of lack of adherence, they were drummed out because neither guy was an NHL player at that point.

I also think you’re mixing up Ben Street and Ben Smith. Street was gone before Bednar’s first season. But I still don’t think your argument holds up there because Smith played FOUR GAMES for Bednar before he was waived and then claimed by Toronto. That’s simply not enough to support any sort of narrative.

 

[Foppa2118]

Iginla and McLeod were not drummed out because of lack of adherence, they were drummed out because neither guy was an NHL player at that point.

I also think you’re mixing up Ben Street and Ben Smith. Street was gone before Bednar’s first season. But I still don’t think your argument holds up there because Smith played FOUR GAMES for Bednar before he was waived and then claimed by Toronto. That’s simply not enough to support any sort of narrative.

Yes I was thinking of Ben Smith but Sakic putting him on waivers was a numbers issue, and there's no way a rookie head coach would tell a HOF GM to not put one of his AHLers on waivers just a few games into his tenure. Bednar absolutely would have wanted to keep him.

And my "narrative" is supported by Bednar's own words in multiple press scrums where he singled Smith out by name to praise him. Not something a coach usually does for a journeyman.

Iginla and McLeod were absolutely moved because they didn't get along with Bednar. McLeod specifically asked for a trade, and I think Iginla probably did too, because he had been vocal about not wanting to be traded before that. Neither player ever attempted to play the way Bednar wanted, and Bednar drastically reduced both players role because of it.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yes I was thinking of Ben Smith but Sakic putting him on waivers was a numbers issue, and there's no way a rookie head coach would tell a HOF GM to not put one of his AHLers on waivers just a few games into his tenure. Bednar absolutely would have wanted to keep him.

And my "narrative" is supported by Bednar's own words in multiple press scrums where he singled Smith out by name to praise him. Not something a coach usually does for a journeyman.

Iginla and McLeod were absolutely moved because they didn't get along with Bednar. McLeod specifically asked for a trade, and I think Iginla probably did too, because he had been vocal about not wanting to be traded before that. Neither player ever attempted to play the way Bednar wanted, and Bednar drastically reduced both players role because of it.

I think I’ll be done with this particular discussion after this but I think you’re putting way too much weight in that first season under Bednar. I don’t know if the discussion regarding his system is even worth pursuing using examples from THAT season, because he wasn’t able to run his, or anyone else’s system. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, and Bednar and his staff were just holding on for dear life.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think I’ll be done with this particular discussion after this but I think you’re putting way too much weight in that first season under Bednar. I don’t know if the discussion regarding his system is even worth pursuing using examples from THAT season, because he wasn’t able to run his, or anyone else’s system. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, and Bednar and his staff were just holding on for dear life.

Fair enough. Though Kaut and Greer are recent examples. But also to be fair, I haven't seen any good examples to support your idea that Bednar is flexible with his system.

And to be honest I don't really see any examples, and that's for the same reason I don't have many examples past the first season. Sakic got rid of the guys that didn't play the way Bednar wanted, and has only brought in guys that would play Bednar's system well.

Everyone has bought into Bednar's system now. That's why they're playing so well.

 

[Foppa2118]

Zadorov is also a recent example.

 

[Nihiliste]

Most of the people who leave are marginal NHL players or done. Kaut is one situation where I don’t see why the org is handling him so much differently than the other kids but I hope he can’t work it out

 

[Pokecheque]

Fair enough. But also to be fair, I haven't seen any examples to support your idea that Bednar is flexible with his system, even though both Barklez and I asked this.

And to be honest I don't really see any examples, and that's for the same reason I don't have many examples past the first season. Sakic got rid of the guys that didn't play the way Bednar wanted, and has only brought in guys that would play Bednar's system well.

I’ve cited several times in other discussions (though admittedly I may not have here) that Carl Soderberg is the antithesis of what Bednar wants. He’s a slow skater, has below-average analytics, and doesn’t carry the puck well. But he became a key guy for Bednar for two seasons after that rough start, even though he was a pure dump-and-chase guy in a system that focuses on controlled exits and entries. He was the de facto 2nd line center for the team and handled a very large defensive load, made all the more apparent by the fact that the top line was pretty poor defensively those seasons.

And I also noted the Brandon Saad is also not an ideal player under this system, but you disagreed. Which is fine, it’s a discussion. He’s not a dogged pursuer of the puck, he’s not particularly tough on the forecheck, and he’s not at all great defensively, but I think we agree he fits the system just fine.

I feel where we disagree is that you’re implying a certain degree of rigidity to Bednar’s approach and just don’t think that’s the case.

 

[Pokecheque]

Zadorov is also a recent example.

Again, I don’t think that’s so much a case of him being a bad fit as him just not being very good. He’s struggling in Chicago too.

 

[Foppa2118]

I’ve cited several times in other discussions (though admittedly I may not have here) that Carl Soderberg is the antithesis of what Bednar wants. He’s a slow skater, has below-average analytics, and doesn’t carry the puck well. But he became a key guy for Bednar for two seasons after that rough start, even though he was a pure dump-and-chase guy in a system that focuses on controlled exits and entries. He was the de facto 2nd line center for the team and handled a very large defensive load, made all the more apparent by the fact that the top line was pretty poor defensively those seasons.

And I also noted the Brandon Saad is also not an ideal player under this system, but you disagreed. Which is fine, it’s a discussion. He’s not a dogged pursuer of the puck, he’s not particularly tough on the forecheck, and he’s not at all great defensively, but I think we agree he fits the system just fine.

I feel where we disagree is that you’re implying a certain degree of rigidity to Bednar’s approach and just don’t think that’s the case.

Soda and Saad aren't the antithesis of Bednar's system though. Just because they're not super fast skaters or in Soda's case doesn't have great possessions numbers, that isn't something Bednar is going to freak out about, because it's not realistic to build a team full of super fast skaters that have great possession games, and are also good defensively, good teammates, willing to go to the dirty areas on ice, etc. Not under the cap at least.

Soda and Saad play exactly how Bednar wants though. They both skate well enough to get to the spots on the ice Bednar wants them to be. They're both hard workers, that are responsible defensively, and are known for hounding puck carriers by making 2nd and 3rd efforts in their puck battles. This keeps the play alive in the O zone and stifles the opposition's transition game.

This is what makes Bednar's system successful. If you're not playing that way, like Kaut isn't, then he's not going to give you much rope, or be flexible. He wants what he wants, and if you're not gonna play that way, you're not gonna play for him.

If you want to see how Saad would play if he didn't play Bednar's system well, take a look at his first 5 or so games with the Avs when he didn't have a real training camp, and hadn't adjusted yet to what Bednar wanted. He figured it out quick though because Saad's a pro, and he knows how to play a system.

And how long did it take for Bednar to be extremely critical of Saad this year when he wasn't playing the way he wanted? About three games I think.

Again, I don’t think that’s so much a case of him being a bad fit as him just not being very good. He’s struggling in Chicago too.

I haven't really followed Chicago closely this year so I can't comment on how he's played.

But what I do know is that you're never going to have an accurate representation of a defensive defenseman, if you're trying to evaluate their play on a bad team like the Hawks.

This applies the most to defenseman and goalies, but it also applies to forwards. Just look at how everyone evaluated Saad with Chicago last year, compared to how everyone views him now with the Avs.

This isn't really about what level of player Zadorov is though. It's about how flexible Bednar is with his system. And it's hard to make a case that Bednar was flexible with Z, when he healthy scratched him more than everyone else, just so he could play worse defenseman like Lindholm and Mark Alt.

 

[Hasbro]

Byram and Newhook will be eligible for rookie awards next season.

 

[Pokecheque]

So Bednar's system is all about applying pressure to the puck carrier to create turnovers? It sure doesn't seem very effective at that then considering this team gets very few of those and is usually having to attack defenses that are already set up and waiting for them instead of odd number breaks in transition. Based on this site, the avs takeaway numbers rank in the bottom third of the nhl despite all their speed and effort. I would really like it if the avs could create more transition opportunities because it's much easier to score that way, right now it seems like the team does a lot of work for not much reward. When they do score a lot, it's usually because they were able to come at the other team in such waves that it broke them. It felt like we got a lot more transition opportunities when Roy was coach.

Another thing I noticed is that it seems like our players are always getting out numbered in puck battles. The other team will be sending 4 guys while the avs try to fend them off with 2 or 3 while the other guys stand there watching even in our own defensive zone.

Here Jost does a good job of winning the puck back but then is immediately surrounded by 2 if not 3 blues players IN HIS OWN ZONE and is forced to give the puck back while all his teammates stand around watching. Girard just watches his guy go and stands in front of the net guarding nobody like he usually does. If the scheme is supposed to be good shouldn't your team have the numbers advantage?

I think you're taking some of these stats way out of context. You don't have to be a leading team in takeaways when you have the puck all the time. And the Avs control the puck better than almost every team in the league.

Yes, the transition game was better under Roy. Want to know why? Because under both Sacco and Roy, the team's offense was entirely dependent on transition. They didn't produce offense consistently any other way. Avs have a good transition game, yes, but they also don't need it nearly as much. You know they're the best offensive team in hockey period, right?

And yes, the Avs actually do create a lot of turnovers on the forecheck. But the numbers may not back that up because, again, they usually have the puck in the attacking zone in the first place.

 

[Pokecheque]

Soda and Saad aren't the antithesis of Bednar's system though. Just because they're not super fast skaters or in Soda's case doesn't have great possessions numbers, that isn't something Bednar is going to freak out about, because it's not realistic to build a team full of super fast skaters that have great possession games, and are also good defensively, good teammates, willing to go to the dirty areas on ice, etc. Not under the cap at least.

Soda and Saad play exactly how Bednar wants though. They both skate well enough to get to the spots on the ice Bednar wants them to be. They're both hard workers, that are responsible defensively, and are known for hounding puck carriers by making 2nd and 3rd efforts in their puck battles. This keeps the play alive in the O zone and stifles the opposition's transition game.

This is what makes Bednar's system successful. If you're not playing that way, like Kaut isn't, then he's not going to give you much rope, or be flexible. He wants what he wants, and if you're not gonna play that way, you're not gonna play for him.

If you want to see how Saad would play if he didn't play Bednar's system well, take a look at his first 5 or so games with the Avs when he didn't have a real training camp, and hadn't adjusted yet to what Bednar wanted. He figured it out quick though because Saad's a pro, and he knows how to play a system.

And how long did it take for Bednar to be extremely critical of Saad this year when he wasn't playing the way he wanted? About three games I think.

Right, I think we agree at least to some extent that Bednar is not overly stringent and can make adjustments depending on the makeup of his lineup.

I haven't really followed Chicago closely this year so I can't comment on how he's played.

But what I do know is that you're never going to have an accurate representation of a defensive defenseman, if you're trying to evaluate their play on a bad team like the Hawks.

This applies the most to defenseman and goalies, but it also applies to forwards. Just look at how everyone evaluated Saad with Chicago last year, compared to how everyone views him now with the Avs.

This isn't really about what level of player Zadorov is though. It's about how flexible Bednar is with his system. And it's hard to make a case that Bednar was flexible with Z, when he healthy scratched him more than everyone else, just so he could play worse defenseman like Lindholm and Mark Alt.

On the contrary, you can still get accurate assessments on players, even if they're on bad teams. Not every situation is akin to Buffalo, that's a whole other level of terrible.

That said, I'll concede this point to you regarding Zadorov. He's actually been fairly good for the Hawks. I'm attaching player cards from the Minnesota Hockey Twins website both this year and last year. You can see the marked improvement.

That last season I think what we saw was a marked change in Bednar's approach. Before, he implemented a more matchup-minded strategy. The top line got a shit-ton of offensive zone starts, the Soderberg Trio got a huge defensive workload, and everyone else got sprinkled in. Nowadays Bednar just rolls four lines and doesn't care much about matchups. That runs completely counter to a player like Zadorov. He can only be a matchups guy--he can't operate any other way. Also, I know Colliton prefers a hybrid man-to-man coverage system, which is perfect for him. I believe Bednar likes a zone D system, which is definitely not suited for Z.

However, despite this improvement, he's is still drawing the same criticisms he did in COL though, and that's WYSIWYG. He's always going to be a supremely gifted stay-at-home defenseman with speed and size and grit to spare...who still struggles covering guys in front of the net, still can't read/anticipate plays well, and still prone to very bad stretches of play. And yes, even in Chicago, he's still abominable at killing penalties.

 

[henchman21]

Does Z age out of being an Avs' prospect when he's 27? There has to be a cutoff somewhere here, right?

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Does Z age out of being an Avs' prospect when he's 27? There has to be a cutoff somewhere here, right?

Zads will always have next year to show us what he's got.

 

[Pokecheque]

Does Z age out of being an Avs' prospect when he's 27? There has to be a cutoff somewhere here, right?

No. He's thisclose to putting it all together.

 

[Foppa2118]

Does Z age out of being an Avs' prospect when he's 27? There has to be a cutoff somewhere here, right?

Are you going to age out of this dumb joke, or are you just going to regurgitate it ad nauseam untill your last breath?

 

[Foppa2118]

Right, I think we agree at least to some extent that Bednar is not overly stringent and can make adjustments depending on the makeup of his lineup.



On the contrary, you can still get accurate assessments on players, even if they're on bad teams. Not every situation is akin to Buffalo, that's a whole other level of terrible.

That said, I'll concede this point to you regarding Zadorov. He's actually been fairly good for the Hawks. I'm attaching player cards from the Minnesota Hockey Twins website both this year and last year. You can see the marked improvement.

That last season I think what we saw was a marked change in Bednar's approach. Before, he implemented a more matchup-minded strategy. The top line got a shit-ton of offensive zone starts, the Soderberg Trio got a huge defensive workload, and everyone else got sprinkled in. Nowadays Bednar just rolls four lines and doesn't care much about matchups. That runs completely counter to a player like Zadorov. He can only be a matchups guy--he can't operate any other way. Also, I know Colliton prefers a hybrid man-to-man coverage system, which is perfect for him. I believe Bednar likes a zone D system, which is definitely not suited for Z.

However, despite this improvement, he's is still drawing the same criticisms he did in COL though, and that's WYSIWYG. He's always going to be a supremely gifted stay-at-home defenseman with speed and size and grit to spare...who still struggles covering guys in front of the net, still can't read/anticipate plays well, and still prone to very bad stretches of play. And yes, even in Chicago, he's still abominable at killing penalties. View attachment 432834 View attachment 432835

I still disagree on your first point here. I don't think my point about Saad and Soda shows Bednar is flexible. I was saying that they actually do play the way he wants. They're not super fast, but they still skate well enough to do what Bednar wants. That's why they were comfortable bringing Soda back.

It's tough to judge a defensive defenseman on a bad team, because their role is limited. It revolves around keeping the puck out of the net. They're not skilled enough to make up for poor defensive plays with offense, and that goes double on a bad team. Their defensive job is tougher when the rest of the team is playing poor defense, and none of Chicago's goaltenders have played well this year, so the mistakes get amplified when the goaltender can't bail them out like on good teams.

But again this isn't about what kind of player Zadorov actually is. It's about whether Bednar is flexible with his system, and I just have a hard time seeing how Bednar was flexible with Z. I'm not talking about whether he was right or not, or whether Zadorov plays better for a coach like Bednar or Colliton. I'm just talking about how flexible Bednar was with Zadorov, and I don't see how he was, because he healthy scratched him more than any other regular on the team.

I think we might have come to the end of the road on this conversation, but it was an interesting one and I appreciate the points you made. Thanks for having it with me.

 

[Hasbro]

I hope the Food signing means more names on the dotted line. I'd like Beaucage, Mutala, Kovalenko and Miner under contract.

 

[henchman21]

I hope the Food signing means more names on the dotted line. I'd like Beaucage, Mutala, Kovalenko and Miner under contract.

3/4 will probably have them in the next few days.

 

[Hasbro]

3/4 will probably have them in the next few days.

Since you followed the Eagles, what about Mutant and Miner?

 

[henchman21]

Since you followed the Eagles, what about Mutant and Miner?

I don't think either have NHL futures. Mutala just doesn't have much talent in him. He works hard and is an alright skater with okay size.... but I see a bottom 6 AHL guy who might turn into a top 6 guy. Could be an AHL leader and I think there is value in that. Not a big fan of using a ton of NHL contract space on limited upside player, but I would probably want to make an exception here because he could become an AHL fixture. Miner is a smaller goalie that isn't supremely athletic, and that is typically a terrible combo. He was pretty solid this season, not only with the Eagles, but with Vancouver too. I wouldn't sign him to a NHL contract, but give him a 2 way AHL deal to see if he can play a ECHL starter/AHL backup role.

 

[McMetal]

I hope the Food signing means more names on the dotted line. I'd like Beaucage, Mutala, Kovalenko and Miner under contract.

Didn't Kovalenko sign again in Russia? I thought I remembered reading that somewhere. Disappointing, but still, it's not like he has nowhere to go in the KHL with regard to developing. I'd like to see him over here too but I'm also cool with him staying over there for a little bit.

 

[Hasbro]

Didn't Kovalenko sign again in Russia? I thought I remembered reading that somewhere. Disappointing, but still, it's not like he has nowhere to go in the KHL with regard to developing. I'd like to see him over here too but I'm also cool with him staying over there for a little bit.

The last contract EP has is 2018 for 3 years, but he got traded to AK Bars today.