16thOverallSaveUs
Danila Yurov Fan Club Executive Assistant
- May 2, 2018
- 18,695
- 11,708
Roster is, for the most part, locked in. Assuming 82 games, let's predict every player's production as well as full team predictions.
Fiala: 35 + 41 for 76 points
Kaprizov: 31 + 30 for 61 points
Zuccarello: 1 + 59 for 60 points (or 20 + 40)
Suter: 7 + 42 for 49 points
Bonino: 20 + 28 for 48 points
Johanssen 13 + 33 for 46 points
Rossi: 14 + 30 for 44 points
Dumba 11 + 30 for 41 points
Ek: 12 + 28 for 40 points
Parise 20 + 20 for 40 points
Spurgeon 14 + 23 for 37 points
Brodin 4 + 30 for 34 points
Greenway 14 + 17 for 31 points
Bjugstad 17 + 11 for 28 points
Foligno 12 + 16 for 28 points
Hartman 10 + 15 for 25 points
Soucy 9 + 12 for 21 points
Belpedio 3 + 12 for 15 points
Talbot: 50 games .921 SV% + 2.55GAA
Stalock:.908 SV% + 2.7 GAA
Kahkonen: .917 SV% + 2.62GAA
we gave up 3.18GAA as a team this year, and I'm going to assume that Talbot/Kahkonen/Stalock can give us a 2.6 combined. I'm also, just as a random guess, going to assume that as a roster on average players are playing 90% of the 82 games. for those 10% of games that we don't have out top 18 in, I'm going to assume 80% of my estimated goals (again, this is a random guess based off no data). That roster is projected to score 266 goals over 82, but with 10% of the games being missed by the top 18 players, we get a new estimation of 239 + 18 for 257 goals.
At 2.6GAA for 82 games, that's 213 goals against, which would give the Wild a +44 goal differential, which would've been a top 5 team this year. I don't know, that feel's a bit high, but that projected goals for pace is actually less than what we put up this year so it further emphasizes my thought that with competent goaltending this is a good team. Even if you bump our GAA up to 2.8, that's still a +28 goal differential. The strength of the team is the defense and the depth scoring, and with competent goaltending, by my estimations, we could very well be a playoff team next year. Rossi, Zuccarello, Kaprizov, Bonino, and of course Talbot are my x-factors. If they hit those numbers, which I think a lot of people think is realistic, I say this team, using the teams that finished around a +28 differential (prorated) this season as a comparison, I think we can go 45-29-8 for 98 points. Again, if players don't meet expectations we could score a lot less, and get scored on more, but for the most part I used this past season as a base-line. In the case of Rossi, I looked at comparables, and NHLe and decided to go on the conservative side of his 56 point NHLe.
Fiala: 35 + 41 for 76 points
Kaprizov: 31 + 30 for 61 points
Zuccarello: 1 + 59 for 60 points (or 20 + 40)
Suter: 7 + 42 for 49 points
Bonino: 20 + 28 for 48 points
Johanssen 13 + 33 for 46 points
Rossi: 14 + 30 for 44 points
Dumba 11 + 30 for 41 points
Ek: 12 + 28 for 40 points
Parise 20 + 20 for 40 points
Spurgeon 14 + 23 for 37 points
Brodin 4 + 30 for 34 points
Greenway 14 + 17 for 31 points
Bjugstad 17 + 11 for 28 points
Foligno 12 + 16 for 28 points
Hartman 10 + 15 for 25 points
Soucy 9 + 12 for 21 points
Belpedio 3 + 12 for 15 points
Talbot: 50 games .921 SV% + 2.55GAA
Stalock:.908 SV% + 2.7 GAA
Kahkonen: .917 SV% + 2.62GAA
we gave up 3.18GAA as a team this year, and I'm going to assume that Talbot/Kahkonen/Stalock can give us a 2.6 combined. I'm also, just as a random guess, going to assume that as a roster on average players are playing 90% of the 82 games. for those 10% of games that we don't have out top 18 in, I'm going to assume 80% of my estimated goals (again, this is a random guess based off no data). That roster is projected to score 266 goals over 82, but with 10% of the games being missed by the top 18 players, we get a new estimation of 239 + 18 for 257 goals.
At 2.6GAA for 82 games, that's 213 goals against, which would give the Wild a +44 goal differential, which would've been a top 5 team this year. I don't know, that feel's a bit high, but that projected goals for pace is actually less than what we put up this year so it further emphasizes my thought that with competent goaltending this is a good team. Even if you bump our GAA up to 2.8, that's still a +28 goal differential. The strength of the team is the defense and the depth scoring, and with competent goaltending, by my estimations, we could very well be a playoff team next year. Rossi, Zuccarello, Kaprizov, Bonino, and of course Talbot are my x-factors. If they hit those numbers, which I think a lot of people think is realistic, I say this team, using the teams that finished around a +28 differential (prorated) this season as a comparison, I think we can go 45-29-8 for 98 points. Again, if players don't meet expectations we could score a lot less, and get scored on more, but for the most part I used this past season as a base-line. In the case of Rossi, I looked at comparables, and NHLe and decided to go on the conservative side of his 56 point NHLe.
