Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Crosside, Mar 3, 2020.
I don't think Stützle is a C nor do I see him going in the top four.
The sens have a far bigger need than Detroit for a center. Detorit has Larkin, the sens have nothing like that.
I think anyone projecting Stutzle or Byfield as the number 1 center next season are dreaming in technicolour. Thats not how D.J operates. Id personally be suprised if either of them play the full season next year in the NHL. I think Stutzle will be in Belleville with a couple call ups, Byfield likely gets 9 games then is sent back. Competition up front is fierce in Ottawa they have 11 players on one way deals and alot of really good prospects pushing. There is basically 3 spots for Chlapik, L. Brown, Norris, Formenton and Balcers to win coming into camp. I am pretty positive that Chlapik plus one of L. Brown or Norris make the team as an injury to Anisimov is inevitable. I really dont see Formenton not making it. But at this point its too far away to speculate as there are many variables.
The only draft eligible player that likely sticks is Lafreniere. For the fun of it ill assume the sens win the first pick to project the lineup.
Lafreniere Tierney C. Brown
Tkachuk White Batherson
Ryan Anisimov Duclair
Paul Chlapik Hawryluk
Without Hainsey I dont think this team gets to the salary cap floor, which is an issue. Which leads me to believe they may sign both Hainsey and Borowiecki. If they dont need Hainsey to get to the floor I dont think they sign him.
In my opinion it is improbable .... not impossible.
Nobody doubts he is the most advanced prospect but their isn’t a scout who could say that LAF will 100% have a better career than Byfield. That couldn’t even be said for Drysdale or Stutzle. History tells us these projections are not that accurate.
Years of control are a significant factor too. LAF in Detroit potentially wastes a year of control next year when they likely are not competitive. Byfield’s UFA clock is probably delayed another year.
It’s effectively an extra guaranteed year of control for Byfield at the age of 26.
Finally there is the physically imposing, charismatic, biracial, English speaking , position of importance (Center) package.
I don’t know if he is a Center but he attacks RD from the left wing position with a revolutionary style.... at least vs the DEL.
No team is passing on a clearly better prospect because they think they will lose a year of control playing him the year after drafting him, thats absurd even ignoring the fact that teams control whether a player is on the active roster for enough games to reach the threshold to burn a year of control.
Even in the unlikely event a team thought the consensus BPA wasn't who they wanted to draft at 1st OA, the likelihood of them passing on him is virtually nothing as they could trade back a spot and get a free asset as well as the guy they want.
But yes, in a hypothetical parallel universe in which the GM selecting 1st OA has a stroke while making his selection and involentarily blurts out a different name as a result, its possible a team passes on Lafreniere so you are technically right it is possible, but largely irrelevant and not at all helpful in moving the conversation forward.
There is absolutely room for a team to think that if you project Byfield 11 months from
now having just come out of a few games in the NHL, dominated at the WJC, and had a good CHL playoff that they could have an
asset that is equal to where LAF is now at a more important position or position of need. I’m sure DET is considering if they should trade back. It may be a quick no... but there in lies the idea that it may be worth while.
This isn’t parallel universe crap... it’s improbable but not impossible. You have no clue wether 2021 Byfield will be more attractive than 2020 LAF.
The parallel universe crap is about as relevant and realistic as your claim that a team would pass on what they saw as a better prospect because of years of control. Nobody is doing that, it's an absurd claim that any team would give that a second thought.
If you think Byfield is a better prospect long term, fine. Heck if all you're getting at is you think a team could think Byfield is the better prospect long term because of position and projections, that's cool too. Just say it, don't create insane "factors" that a team would consider to validate taking a lower ranked player. Years of control is a factor in deciding whether to keep him on your active roster for >40 games during the first 6 years of his career, it's not and never will be a factor in whether or not to draft a player.
Excuse me ? I didn’t say they should pass on him for an extra year of control. I said there were several reasons why DET should “debate” the option.
Don’t insult me by cherry picking one part of a statement to call me an idiot. You should know better.
I think its foregone that he will. and I kind of disagree with it but the hype around him has reached pretty epic proportions.
I didn't call you an idiot, I said your claim that years of control being a significant factor is insane. What is a significant factor if not one that could influence a decision, so either you implied it could entice them to pass on a player they otherwise had ranked higher, or drastically exaggerated the importance of that "factor".
And sorry to say, but if you make an argument that involves several parts, and one of those parts is fatally flawed, people will pick that one part and show why it's flawed.
Your setting your own definition for a “significant factor” and using that to call my suggestion “insane” worthy of fictional parallel universes . There is an underlying personal insult when you misconstrue my point of using “significant factors” to suggest DET wouldn’t debate moving back. Of course I interpret that as offensive and personal.
If DET isn’t considering all of their available options including trading back I would consider them insane.
I don't think trading back would be insane, sorry if I wasn't clear, and no my intent is not to insult, again, sorry if it came across that way. Trading back is always an option to be considered, it's all about what the trade off is after all, if the team holding 2nd OA offers it up along with giant package of pluses they'd be insane not to accept.
Also, I do think that "significant factor" implies far more than you are now suggesting you meant, so if you meant it differently than I interpreted, thanks for the clarification.
That said, I don't really think years of control is a relevant factor at all since if a team thinks a year of control would be wasted by playing a player in year 1 after the draft, they simply wouldn't keep him on the active roster for 40+ games. Moreover, the element of 7 years of control is becoming a moot point in today's NHL with elite players getting big contracts right out of their ELC. This simply isn't a valid reason for influencing your draft preference in any way, nor a reason to trade back imo. I can't imagine a team thinking this way, a player being too good early as a negative check against them is pretty defeatist in nature, and it doesn't even really make sense in a "money puck" sense since they are in control of whether a year burns off or not.
The wall of text on this page has nothing to do with our potential lineup. Please get a room.
Id be disappointed to see Norris get pushed to LW. It also puts our 1&3 triggers (Duc and Norris) with our worst puck distributing Center option.
Could you explain text bolded, please. Cause I've never heard anyone talk like this.
It’s obviously very early for an exercise like this but for the heck of it here’s what I’d do (without UFA signings).
The next important piece of information is that I don’t believe we have what it takes to compete for a playoff spot next season. As such, the #1 priority for my 2020-2021 sens is player development.
The basic premise of my vision would be to try to create the right micro environments to maximize the development of our young players. If possible, I also try to manage the sens assets and maximize the value of players who aren’t part of the long term plan.
I’m working on the assumption that the sens don’t win the lottery, but also don’t lose. They pick 2 and 3 and come away with Byfield and Stutzle. Both these guys get a 9 game taste, Byfield gets sent back to junior and Stutzle gets sent to Belleville. Byfield gets to keep working if his offensive skills and properly using his size. I want him working on his cycle game specifically as opposed to dominating off the rush as much. Stutzle gets a year to get bigger and stronger as well as acclimate the NA game.
Duclair - Tierney - C. Brown : The 1 A line. They can do a bit of everything. I’m hoping that by playing out most proven playmaker (Tierney) with our most proven scorer (Duclair) we get production out of both. Brown is a nice two way piece to help them get the puck. I don’t see Tierney or Duclair as long term pieces and so I’d be willing to move them at the deadline or 2021 draft If they produce well.
Tkachuk (A) - L. Brown - Ryan (A): 1 B line. It is time to give Logan Brown a chance to show what he’s got at the NHL level. These are likely the best line mates he could have. Logan is easily the sens most talented play making center, I’m pairing him with two guys who have put a lot of pucks past NHL goalies. I’m hoping for a continued resurgence of Bobby Ryan. As we saw in the playoffs a few years ago, at his best, he’s essentially a guy who can do it all. I like the idea of having a veteran winger who can pass and shoot with Tkachuk and Brown and also having a guy who spends a lot of time in the dirty areas to take some of that work off of Brady’s hands and allow him to expand his game a little. Tkachuk is just the perfect fit, he’s going to do what he does offensively but what I’m most interested in seeing him bring to this line is the fire. He’s playing with two guys who can be monsters when they’re on their game, but disappear for stretches, Brady is the pilot light who is always burning and who will hopefully keep the other two at a five alarm blaze.
Paul - White - Batherson : This line is a little young for my taste but in a rebuild options are limited. I think these three can play complementary hockey and will help elevate each other. This line helps get the most out of White while providing good tools for Batherson to work with. White isn’t a natural puck distributor so Batherson is on this line to make plays. Playing with the closest thing we have to Mark Stone hopefully brings White back to his production and solid two way play of a few years ago. Paul is there to help the other two defensively, with puck retrieval, and to make space for them. Hopefully Batherson gets the opportunity to set him up to use that big shot.
Balcers - Anisimov - Hawryluk : These guys seemed to have some good moments last season. Ultimately they’re leftovers. Balcers has to step up this season, he’s here in part because he’d have to be exposed to waivers to send down. He gets to play with a veteran who can shoot and pass in Anisimov and a mucker who can skate and do the dirty work in Jayce. Anisimov is moved at the deadline if we can find a taker.
Chlapik : Much like Balcers, he’s vulnerable to a waiver pickup. He gets to step in for inevitable injuries.
Norris and Formenton get another season in the AHL to develop and take their game to the next level. I don’t see Tierney, Duclair or Anisimov here in 2021-2022, so spots will open up.
Chabot - Zub : Zub on the first line kind of goes against the sheltering idea I’ve been pushing, however, I don’t see many other options. I’ve seen quite enough of Chabot with Zaitsev to know I don’t want to see that ever again. Hopefully Zub comes as advertised and can be a reliable partner in the defensive zone for Chabot.
Wolanin - Zaitsev : DJ loves Zaitsev so I don’t see him getting less than second pair icetime. Try to get him to play a reliable style to complement Wolanin. Both these guys have decent size and can skate which is nice to have. I’m expecting Wolanin to cement himself as an NHL’er and hopefully a legitimate top 4 guy.
Borowiecki (C) - Rielly : Borowiecki had a great season in 2019-2020, I’d give him a two year extension and reward his years of work and sacrifice with the C. He’s a true veteran, a pro’s pro and other than being a bottom pair defender he’s everything you’d want in a captain, including being quite eloquent in the media and involved in the community. I doubt I’d offer him a further extension after 2021-2022, at which point Tkachuk takes over the C. Rielly gets opportunities on the first and second unit PP (depending on how Wolanin, Batherson and Duclair perform) and is moved at the deadline.
Brannstrom is sent back to the AHL to keep developing that offensive confidence. Either he or Jaros are first called up depending on who is injured.
I'd put Norris in with Tkachuck and Ryan, L Brown with Batherson and Paul. Both those conbinations have existing chemistry.
Then move White down to center Balcers and shift Anisimove to the wing.
Run with that for the start and see if they need more time in the AHL.
I'd like to see Balcers in a more offensive role. He's got the talent, just needs the opportunity.
I’d be ok with that compromise if Norris forces his way on the team, but he’d have to force my hand because I’m trying to reclaim White here.
There isn’t much to reclaim. This was a player who couldn’t put up .60 PPG in the AHL and we rushed to the NHL.
It’s time for Norris, Batherson, Brown, Balcers, 2020 1RD etc to get a shot on the top scoring lines and White can find a path to develop into an effective top 10F. If he plays his way up move him up.
I think it’s time we let Brady lead/carry at least one of our prospects. I don’t really care if it is Norris, Brown, Bath, or whoever but I think he is ready to take on that type of leadership roll with then the team and he is probably our 2nd most reliable trigger.
Riding shotgun with the league’s leader in hits/shots should provide some protection.
With his salary and contract length they have to try to make him at least a top 9 guy.
I think Formenton is going to make it impossible to cut him. Likely at the expense of Hawryluk.
I agree ... I left a top 10 roll open to include a 4C that could play up the lineup with injuries etc. Sorta like the ideal use of CT.
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