Speculation: 2019 Trade Deadline

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Marky9er

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Jan 30, 2008
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Don't expect much. I doubt any of them have any clue how good a guy like Nyquist has played this year.
Why wouldn't other teams know about Nyquist? Nashville should have been making offers in the first period.
 

TatarTangle

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Sep 28, 2011
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Don't think it really matters IMO. Holland basicially saying other teams will have to overpay for Howard was his way of saying Howard isn't going to be traded
 

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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Don't think it really matters IMO. Holland basicially saying other teams will have to overpay for Howard was his way of saying Howard isn't going to be traded

Who knows, it all depends on the market. 2 years ago I didnt think anyone would overpay for Smith and NYR did, last year I didn't think anyone would overpay for Tatar and LV did. I admit a goalie is different, and if nobody needs a goalie we likely get a bad return or no return at all, but if any contenders loose a starter or have a starter playing like crap, an upgrade in net is worth giving something up for. Hopefully we can reap the reward of that.
 

jkutswings

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Jul 10, 2014
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Who knows, it all depends on the market. 2 years ago I didnt think anyone would overpay for Smith and NYR did, last year I didn't think anyone would overpay for Tatar and LV did. I admit a goalie is different, and if nobody needs a goalie we likely get a bad return or no return at all, but if any contenders loose a starter or have a starter playing like crap, an upgrade in net is worth giving something up for. Hopefully we can reap the reward of that.
Yeah, getting a nice return for Howard would probably need to be a "carpe diem" scenario, of another team's poor luck at the right time to benefit Detroit.
 
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DetroitRed

Crashes the Crease
Apr 7, 2013
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The other side of the question of Howard being traded is that he is pushing retirement. He might have three or four NHL seasons left in him, and maybe one or two of those seasons left to be a starter. So, if he stays in Detroit, he may never start or see another playoff game. If he stays in Detroit, he has to deal with a bunch of young players making bad defensive decisions in front of him game after game. Or he could ask to be traded elsewhere and go play for a cup. This could be his last chance for that.

The fun side to keeping Howard while rebuilding is that while he begins to decline, they have no replacement for him on the horizon yet. So, unless they find and start training a suitable replacement for him more or less immediately, they'll have nobody ready to takeover for Howard when he retires. His coming retirement combined with that could bring good draft positions for a while to come. Like it or not.
 
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Backhandbeauty

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Dec 28, 2018
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I hope Gus' incredibly weak playoff history doesn't lower his trade value if moved at the deadline. Dunno if lightning will strike twice after getting what we did for tatar and him providing nothing to Vegas.
 

Claypool

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Jan 12, 2009
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I hope Gus' incredibly weak playoff history doesn't lower his trade value if moved at the deadline. Dunno if lightning will strike twice after getting what we did for tatar and him providing nothing to Vegas.
I think a 2nd round pick and maybe a B prospect is as good as they'll get. Him being a UFA is a big factor. However, it's entirely possible the market dictates he's worth a 1st round pick. The only other wingers that might be available that are statistically better than Nyquist are Stone, Panarin and Skinner. Maybe Kessel, too.
 

jkutswings

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Jul 10, 2014
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The other side of the question of Howard being traded is that he is pushing retirement. He might have three or four NHL seasons left in him, and maybe one or two of those seasons left to be a starter. So, if he stays in Detroit, he may never start or see another playoff game. If he stays in Detroit, he has to deal with a bunch of young players making bad defensive decisions in front of him game after game. Or he could ask to be traded elsewhere and go play for a cup. This could be his last chance for that.

The fun side to keeping Howard while rebuilding is that while he begins to decline, they have no replacement for him on the horizon yet. So, unless they find and start training a suitable replacement for him more or less immediately, they'll have nobody ready to takeover for Howard when he retires. His coming retirement combined with that could bring good draft positions for a while to come. Like it or not.
Howard turns 35 in March. I was skeptical about your claim of retirement, so I did a quick search on older goaltenders, and it surprised me. Granted, this is from 2015, so if anybody has more recent data, that would be great. But here it is:

Goaltenders And Aging In the National Hockey League - InGoal Magazine

Obviously, it varies, and depends largely on the given situation. But there does seem to be evidence that games played for those over 35 is going down quite a bit. We'll see how the Howard saga unfolds.
 
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Reddwit

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Feb 4, 2016
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Don't think it really matters IMO. Holland basicially saying other teams will have to overpay for Howard was his way of saying Howard isn't going to be traded

Did he actually say overpayment or are you referring to his 1st round pick statement? Cause the latter doesn’t imply the former. It’s a basic tactic straight out of Negotiating 101.
 

DetroitRed

Crashes the Crease
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Howard turns 35 in March. I was skeptical about your claim of retirement, so I did a quick search on older goaltenders, and it surprised me. Granted, this is from 2015, so if anybody has more recent data, that would be great. But here it is:

Goaltenders And Aging In the National Hockey League - InGoal Magazine

Obviously, it varies, and depends largely on the given situation. But there does seem to be evidence that games played for those over 35 is going down quite a bit. We'll see how the Howard saga unfolds.
Oh, I've looked into it myself. What I read was...

Goalies tend to age well in terms of keeping up their averages and percentages. However, they tend to play fewer and fewer games as they age past 35.

Last season, out of 90-some goalies who were in some way part of an NHL team, I think there were less than ten over the age of 34. I'm not sure where the NHL is on that now or will be next season. However, I think the NHL has more goalies who are right at 35 now than it had a season ago. The trend for progressively fewer games I would expect is the same though...

I think there have only been 19 goalies at or over age 40 in NHL history. Two goalies per team multiplied by how many seasons, but only 19 over age 40. So, it seems like a pretty safe bet.
 
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Reddwit

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I really hope we don't p***yfoot around and worry about anybody's feelings. We need to be cutthroat this TDL. Everyone wants to talk about how long rebuilds take and how we need to get used to being in the basement but we also need to consider the flipside of that - this could be our last chance at a top 5 pick for some time. The league is close enough that a key trade, signing, or developmental steps from a couple of youngsters could change the outlook of this team for the better.
 

Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
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I really hope we don't p***yfoot around and worry about anybody's feelings. We need to be cutthroat this TDL. Everyone wants to talk about how long rebuilds take and how we need to get used to being in the basement but we also need to consider the flipside of that - this could be our last chance at a top 5 pick for some time. The league is close enough that a key trade, signing, or developmental steps from a couple of youngsters could change the outlook of this team for the better.

Don't expect a big jump for next year. I could think our jump will happen after 2020 off-season. then most of the dead weight is gone. There's no players yet who could make that impact at next summer. It happens only if we get Panarin+Karlsson+Bobrovsky or 2 of them from the UFA.

Currently we are icing a team with real caphit values on the level of ~cap floor. Cap floor valued team will end on the bottom, that's how it goes.

We have to start getting value for our used millions (+80 million healthy players), and/or, more underpaid players like Elite guys on ELC, then the success will come back and we'll see a jump on the standings.
 
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RedHawkDown

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Aug 26, 2011
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I think we'll probably be even worse next year. Zadina will be an NHL rookie at best, all the vets get worse, and Hronek/Cholo will probably still be trying to learn the ropes as the only two decent defensemen on this team. The only dark horse is if we get a top 3 pick this year and the kid comes in and tears it up w/ Larkin (e.g. Kakko) - then we might be picking closer to 10-15 than 1-5.
 

Reddwit

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Feb 4, 2016
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Don't expect a big jump for next year. I could think our jump will happen after 2020 off-season. then most of the dead weight is gone. There's no players yet who could make that impact at next summer. It happens only if we get Panarin+Karlsson+Bobrovsky or 2 of them from the UFA.

Currently we are icing a team with real caphit values on the level of ~cap floor. Cap floor valued team will end on the bottom, that's how it goes.

We have to start getting value for our used millions (+80 million healthy players), and/or, more underpaid players like Elite guys on ELC, then the success will come back and we'll see a jump on the standings.

But who said anything about a "big jump?" Its January 9th and we're 2 points away from being the 11th worst team in the league. 2 points. 11th overall. Spending half the season thus far with our top 3-4 defenseman out of the lineup. A handful of bounces our way and we're sitting in a wild card spot. This team. A potential playoff team?

This is exactly the hand-waving I'm talking about. Its so easy to point to a rebuilding roster and say it will be shit next year. But will it? Getting into the middle third of this league is only ever a good or bad week of hockey away for most teams, but statistically, the middle third of the 1st round is a world away from the top 3 in any given draft year. Yet thats what we're looking at if we anticipate that little changes in the coming year. That seems awfully presumptuous considering a literal third of our potential roster next year is comprised of guys (Bertuzzi, AA, Zadina, Mantha, Cholowski, Veleno, Hronek, Rasmussen, 2019 pick) who are still developing. We have no star player poised to fall off - instead we have a bunch of kids ready to step up. If just a couple of the aforementioned guys take a big step developmentally, that could turn us into a different team and all bets are off. But if all of them stagnate, we don't look that much different either. Like I said in as many words, its easy to play the pessimist here.

Also, Re:"real value" vis-a-vis cap hit. Thats pretty pointless to me here. Every team in the NHL has a cap number that doesn't reflect "real cap hit values" because every team has overpaid veterans and cost-controlled youngsters. We have scrubs making $4-5M but our #3 defenseman is also making $812k and 1/2 of our top 6 makes $3M or less.

I think we'll probably be even worse next year. Zadina will be an NHL rookie at best, all the vets get worse, and Hronek/Cholo will probably still be trying to learn the ropes as the only two decent defensemen on this team. The only dark horse is if we get a top 3 pick this year and the kid comes in and tears it up w/ Larkin (e.g. Kakko) - then we might be picking closer to 10-15 than 1-5.

Same as above. Lots of easy assumptions. Yet we have no way of knowing how many of our youngsters will take the next step, no way of knowing if that key UFA will accept our offer, no way of knowing if a trade possibility (thinking Trouba here) is more realistic than previously thought. There are for more avenues for us to look to or utilize to turn us into a non-bottom 10 team than there are to say unequivocally that we'll be worse next year. That's simply the way things are with the new draft lottery.

Instead, what we do know is that we're weak now and we have the ability, namely through the trade route, to ensure that we're optimally poised to get locked into a top 5 pick. Finish in the bottom 2, get a top 5 pick. Its fact. No speculation required. No far-reaching scenarios needed. Gut this team of its impending UFAs (and possibly others) and every rational argument says we're headed for the bottom. The bright side here is that we don't have to be an affront to the sport to do so. Finish a handful of points short of the 25th worst team in the NHL and you can be dead last.

TL;DR - We f***ed around being bad at being good from about 2011-2016. Lets not f*** around by being bad at being bad while we have the chance.
 
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Henkka

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- Nyquist for contender (NSH?) 1st (2019 draft, ~25-31 range) :thumbu:
- Howard for half-contender with a goalie mess (CBJ?) 2 x 2nd (2020 & 2021 drafts, other second conditional for 2 playoff round wins) :thumbu:
- Kronwall to contender (TOR?) for 2nd (2021) + 4th (2020) :thumbu:
- Jensen for condender depth (WSH or almost anybody?) 3rd (2019) :thumbu:
 
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Inspiration

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Jul 10, 2013
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It was interesting to hear Elliotte Friedman drop Nick Jensen's name when asked to name the most underrated players in the league on his 31 Thoughts podcast this week. Friedman suggested that Jensen might get more action around trade deadline than people think. I wonder if we see a repeat of two years ago where the high profile winger (Vanek/Nyquist) gets a lesser return than expected due to an abundance of available similar players while the lesser regarded defenseman (Smith/Jensen) gets a surprisingly large return.
 

19 for president

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Apr 28, 2002
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I think Howard, Daley, Nyquist, Glenny, and Jensen all garner interest. Kronner would be a wild card but I think he'll stick with the Wings. If we make at least 3 deals I'll be pretty happy
 

TheMule93

On a mule rides the swindler
May 26, 2015
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Maybe we didn't give Kronner the C just in case we decide to deal him at the deadline. Trading your captain would be strange.
 

Lil Bert

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Oct 14, 2018
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Everyone knows how terrible Edmonton's wing is, imagine us trading Nyquist to the Oilers for a Vegas-esque return. I could see it happening given Chiarelli's blatant incompetence and McDavid's need for a suitable wing. I have no idea how people are talking about a second and a prospect for Nyquist lol. Teams will give up a boatload based on their needs.
 

obey86

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Jun 9, 2009
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But who said anything about a "big jump?" Its January 9th and we're 2 points away from being the 11th worst team in the league. 2 points. 11th overall. Spending half the season thus far with our top 3-4 defenseman out of the lineup. A handful of bounces our way and we're sitting in a wild card spot. This team. A potential playoff team?

This is a little disingenuous IMO. What you said is factually correct, but you left out the fact that the Red Wings have played 2-4 games more than most teams in the league (save about 6 other teams who have also played 46 or 47 games).

The reality is that the Red Wings have the 2nd lowest amount of regulation/overtime wins in the league, are 2nd to last in points earned/game (a better indication than total points due to differences in the number of games each team has played), have the 4th lowest goal differential in the league, and are 13 points away from being tied for the last wild card spot in their conference.

The Red Wings have arguably been the worst team in the league this season.
 
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