Speculation: 2019 Trade Deadline

[Shaman464]

Hes not a third pair dman in any way whatsoever. Advanced stats, actual usage, everything points to a top 4 D. Not some elite top pairing D, but a legit second pairing guy on most teams in the NHL

I wouldn't go to 'legit second pairing guy'. I would say he's a bottom 3 guy who isn't in over his head when playing with a good #4, but optimal usage is #5 guy.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Hes not a third pair dman in any way whatsoever. Advanced stats, actual usage, everything points to a top 4 D. Not some elite top pairing D, but a legit second pairing guy on most teams in the NHL

Maybe on a shit show defense like the Wings, but not on any halfway decent teams. Advance stats are fools gold. Usage doesn't mean shit if there isn't any talent on the roster. What does he do well in actual games? PK?

 

[jkutswings]

I disagree to an extent. What other teams are selling and what they are asking clearly affects what Holland can sell for. At the same time, if he caves and sells for something noticeably cheaper than what his assets are normally worth (dealing Nyquist just before the TDL for a fourth, for example) then that's going to become a reputation he has to fight every year. Also, frankly, a third or fourth round pick probably just isn't worth it. A second, maybe. But getting a player of Nyquist's value with a second still isn't a good bet.

I'm really hoping we see the Wings get some good value from a couple of their guys in the next couple of weeks. But if guys are not dealt, I'm not going to kill Holland over it. He probably did the right thing, and he probably didn't leave anything significant on the table.

Some good points, but I'm not approaching the deadline by weighing the value of Nyquist versus whether the pick received can replace him down the road. It's that a second rounder or better is worth more (in the big picture) than Gus' contributions over the next 2-3 months.

If he's dealt, maybe he comes back in July, and maybe he doesn't. But I like the scenario of having more draft capital and needing to find a scoring winger on the open market better than rolling with Gus in a non-playoff year, and either getting nothing for him when he leaves, or paying him more than I think he deserves to stick around another 3-5 years.

 

[Claypool]

Care to list all the 3rd pair UFA d that have signed for over 4 million per year in the last 5 years?

I asked how much are you willing to pay for Jensen. What's your price?

 

[Shaman464]

I asked how much are you willing to pay for Jensen. What's your price?

I'd sign him to a 3-3.5 (9-10.5 life of contract)/3 years.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I asked how much are you willing to pay for Jensen. What's your price?

He probably could command between $3 million to $3.5 million per for 2-3 years, Any GM that gives Jensen $4+ million needs to be fired ASAP though.

 

[TCNorthstars]

I asked how much are you willing to pay for Jensen. What's your price?

I asked you to name all the 3rd pairing defenders who got 4 million per year in fa. Where is the list?

 

[newfy]

I wouldn't go to 'legit second pairing guy'. I would say he's a bottom 3 guy who isn't in over his head when playing with a good #4, but optimal usage is #5 guy.

If hes on your bottom pair, your defense is really good. Hes at absolute worst a number 5 who can bump into the top 4 in case of injuries and not hurt you at all. He would be a number 4 on a lot of teams in the NHL. Optimal usage would be a 7th D if it means you have 6 guys that you can play that are better than him but most teams dont.

I could see him playing second pairing minutes on Columbus, Dallas, Vegas, Detroit, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Toronto (especially if Gardiner leaves), Florida, Montreal, in the mix with St Louis, the Rangers, Ottawa, Colorado, LA, Edmonton, and Chicago.

Optimally hes a number 5 on a stacked D sure, but I dont think a lot of people realize what a lot of teams are trotting out as their number 4 dman. Some of the teams I listed have guys that I would call comparable to Jensen but likely Jensen could play over them in a vacuum. I didnt include some other teams where he would be in the mix because I didnt want to sound too over the top but even a team like the Islanders could play him over an old Boychuk, or New Jersey etc. Even if some of those teams you dont agree with, hes still fairly close to a number 4 on at least half the teams in the league. In free agency, where guys get overpaid, he'll be paid like a number 4 dman and he deserves to be paid like one really.

Maybe on a **** show defense like the Wings, but not on any halfway decent teams. Advance stats are fools gold. Usage doesn't mean **** if there isn't any talent on the roster. What does he do well in actual games? PK?

Lol Jensen is far from the issue with Detroits defense. I've watched Jensen all year and hes a solid dman. He gets played like a top 2 or 3 dman on this wings team. Hes looked good out there with the eye test. His advanced stats match up with that. Teams will notice that.

He does a lot well out there. Yes, hes a good penalty killer. Hes a really good skater. Hes good at winning puck battles in the corner and can get the puck moving up ice for a stay at home type. He doesnt turn the puck over much and makes the safe play. He is the perfect compliment to a number 3 D who likes to rush the puck and jump up in the play. Hes not a dynamic, offensive dman but hes effective at what he does. If a team has some talent to not play him like a top pairing guy and gets easier matchups, he would look even better than he does now. What do you think he does that makes

 

[Shaman464]

If hes on your bottom pair, your defense is really good. Hes at absolute worst a number 5 who can bump into the top 4 in case of injuries and not hurt you at all. He would be a number 4 on a lot of teams in the NHL. Optimal usage would be a 7th D if it means you have 6 guys that you can play that are better than him but most teams dont.

I could see him playing second pairing minutes on Columbus, Dallas, Vegas, Detroit, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Toronto (especially if Gardiner leaves), Florida, Montreal, in the mix with St Louis, the Rangers, Ottawa, Colorado, LA, Edmonton, and Chicago.

Optimally hes a number 5 on a stacked D sure, but I dont think a lot of people realize what a lot of teams are trotting out as their number 4 dman. Some of the teams I listed have guys that I would call comparable to Jensen but likely Jensen could play over them in a vacuum. I didnt include some other teams where he would be in the mix because I didnt want to sound too over the top but even a team like the Islanders could play him over an old Boychuk, or New Jersey etc. Even if some of those teams you dont agree with, hes still fairly close to a number 4 on at least half the teams in the league. In free agency, where guys get overpaid, he'll be paid like a number 4 dman and he deserves to be paid like one really.



Lol Jensen is far from the issue with Detroits defense. I've watched Jensen all year and hes a solid dman. He gets played like a top 2 or 3 dman on this wings team. Hes looked good out there with the eye test. His advanced stats match up with that. Teams will notice that.

He does a lot well out there. Yes, hes a good penalty killer. Hes a really good skater. Hes good at winning puck battles in the corner and can get the puck moving up ice for a stay at home type. He doesnt turn the puck over much and makes the safe play. He is the perfect compliment to a number 3 D who likes to rush the puck and jump up in the play. Hes not a dynamic, offensive dman but hes effective at what he does. If a team has some talent to not play him like a top pairing guy and gets easier matchups, he would look even better than he does now. What do you think he does that makes

I don't see him as a middle pairing on most of those teams when they are healthy. He's playing well and has good advanced stats on a bad team, but advanced stats are kind of squirrelly on the very best and very worst teams. From the eye test he looks like a #5 on a good to fair defense, a #6 on a stacked defense, and #4 on a bad defense. If he had a little more offensive upside, you'd have a case, but, his defense isn't star stopping.

 

[raymond23]

Oh Helene... Kenny’s mouthpiece lol

For all these "winners" we have on this roster, we sure do lose a lot

 

[newfy]

I don't see him as a middle pairing on most of those teams when they are healthy. He's playing well and has good advanced stats on a bad team, but advanced stats are kind of squirrelly on the very best and very worst teams. From the eye test he looks like a #5 on a good to fair defense, a #6 on a stacked defense, and #4 on a bad defense. If he had a little more offensive upside, you'd have a case, but, his defense isn't star stopping.

Which of those teams is he not a number 4? There might be a few where hes pretty comparable to their number 4 and not clearly better but very comparable player. The eye test to me says he can handle top 4 mins pretty well, and the advanced stats back it up

Its easy to say he wouldnt be top 4 but going through those teams, there isnt a lot where he isnt in my view. Which teams are you talking about specifically?

 

[Shaman464]

Which of those teams is he not a number 4? There might be a few where hes pretty comparable to their number 4 and not clearly better but very comparable player. The eye test to me says he can handle top 4 mins pretty well, and the advanced stats back it up

Its easy to say he wouldnt be top 4 but going through those teams, there isnt a lot where he isnt in my view. Which teams are you talking about specifically?

Buffalo, a healthy Pittsburgh group, Dallas I would make the argument if you value offense, and pretty much every team you put in the mix he'd be a bottom pair guy.

 

[newfy]

Buffalo, a healthy Pittsburgh group, Dallas I would make the argument if you value offense, and pretty much every team you put in the mix he'd be a bottom pair guy.

Whose playing above him in Pittsburgh? Not Jack Johnson anymore. A healthy Schultz would, but since his rookie year Maata hasnt been that great either. Hes kinda had a bounce back this year but hes absolutely comparable to Jensen

Buffalo I dont know who youre talking about either. Hes right there with McCabe as a player, definitely better than Scandella.

On Dallas? Who are you making the offense argument about? I have no idea who youre talking about. Heiskanen and Klingberg are in their top 4 to create offense and theyve played Polak in the top 4 all year to balance out the offense with a defensive minded guy. Dallas is a team where Jensen would be pretty clearly in the top 4.

 

[Claypool]

HSJ does not want Howard traded. He's her only friend on the team.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

The Wings want to re-sign Howard, and they want to be as competitive as possible the remainder of the season. It doesn’t make sense to trade him for anything less than a first-round pick.

I kinda regret not using my name change on HSJ.

 

[Winger98]

Some good points, but I'm not approaching the deadline by weighing the value of Nyquist versus whether the pick received can replace him down the road. It's that a second rounder or better is worth more (in the big picture) than Gus' contributions over the next 2-3 months.

If he's dealt, maybe he comes back in July, and maybe he doesn't. But I like the scenario of having more draft capital and needing to find a scoring winger on the open market better than rolling with Gus in a non-playoff year, and either getting nothing for him when he leaves, or paying him more than I think he deserves to stick around another 3-5 years.

A second isn't far off from the 1st Holland is reportedly looking for, though. I was responding to the idea of just dealing these guys for whatever because something is better than nothing. There's a cost to the GM's reputation and how other GMs look to deal with him down the road with any transaction these guys make.

For the record, I'd be okay with getting a 2nd if it's the best we can get, even better if Holland can get some conditions placed on it (X# of games and reach conference finals, if he re-signs with them, etc.) to either bump it up to a 1st or include an additional 2nd the following year or something. Also, if the Wings wanted to move into that 20-31 range in the draft, I think a couple of seconds could get that done dealing with the right team. I don't think a 3rd or lower helps much for that kind of move.

 

[A II R]

Bobby Mac talks about Nyquist/Jensen at the 3:45 mark:

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I just want something like Nyquist somewhere for 2nd+B prospect, and then turn around and deal retained Howard+2nd to Calgary for Juuso Valimaki. I think that could come pretty close to a good D group for now. No real standout yet, but several guys who could develop well and take on that role with time.

 

[TCNorthstars]

I just want something like Nyquist somewhere for 2nd+B prospect, and then turn around and deal retained Howard+2nd to Calgary for Juuso Valimaki. I think that could come pretty close to a good D group for now. No real standout yet, but several guys who could develop well and take on that role with time.

Would you do the same for Kylington? I think he would be the one to go if the Flames are trading a d.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

It sounds like the Wings learned nothing over the past five years when it comes to not severely overvaluing their spare parts.

The idea of a team that is total garbage hanging on to a player like Luke Glendenning is insane.

Nyquist needs to be gone ASAP. Turns 30 in seven months and is having a career year. Ray Charles could spot all of those red flags.

I don't really care one way or another with Howard. I think people are severely over valuing him, and don't think the Wings would get much for him.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

For all these "winners" we have on this roster, we sure do lose a lot

The Wings spin this as "Quality losses" or "Competitive losses"

Whenever i'm driving home at night and i'm listening to Ken Kal on 97.1, you constantly hear him talk about how competitive the Wings looked and that their record was not an accurate representation of the quality of the roster. It's total garbage, but uninformed fans will take what he says at face value. The same goes for articles written by Holland St. James.

 

[Tatar Shots]

I just want something like Nyquist somewhere for 2nd+B prospect, and then turn around and deal retained Howard+2nd to Calgary for Juuso Valimaki. I think that could come pretty close to a good D group for now. No real standout yet, but several guys who could develop well and take on that role with time.

Calgary is not touching any deal involving Valimaki for Howard

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Calgary is not touching any deal involving Valimaki for Howard

Thank you, Mr. Calgary Flame.

But seriously, they shouldn't. If the tables were turned, I wouldn't trade anything for Howard. Paying extra for an old goalie is a bad move.

 

[RedWingzz]

Thank you, Mr. Calgary Flame.

But seriously, they shouldn't. If the tables were turned, I wouldn't trade anything for Howard. Paying extra for an old goalie is a bad move.

Howard is without a doubt, a better goalie than Rittich and Mike Smith. If they are serious this year (which they should be), they should offer us their 1st for him. I don't think they will, but in my opinion they should because they aren't getting past the 2nd round with their current goalies.

Trading him helps us tank without officially tanking because Bernier sucks. Then we can always bring him back in the summer. I'd talk to him, and if Holland really wants him back next year (of course he wants him back, it's Holland!) then talk to him and say go compete for the Cup and we will bring you back on a 2 year deal at $5 mil/per.

 

[jkutswings]

Howard's name linked to Calgary again:

https://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-goaltending-market-as-calgary-considers-upgrade-1.1257747

The article estimates that a 2nd rounder would be the final price. I'm cool with that, since Jimmy would just be returning in a few months anyway. Ideally, there would also be provisions to get more - say, it bumps to a 1st if Calgary makes the 3rd round, and Howard starts at least 6 games - but I'll take what I can get.