Discussion in 'Fantasy Football' started by rangerssharks414, Aug 1, 2019.
I haven't done any research yet regarding ADPs, so I can't judge just yet.
Mark Andrews is (by far) my biggest sleeper for this upcoming season.
I honestly don't think a top-5 finish at the position is out of the realm of possibilities and given his ADP (Round 14, Pick #133) on Yahoo making him basically free there's very little downside to taking him. The TE position is such a wasteland outside of the top-three options that I'd prefer to take the "wait and see" approach and Andrews provides great value for this strategy.
I think James Conner in the late first will end up being an awful pick.
I'm not fully bought into Cooper Kupp. ACL injury, in my opinion, is tough to come back into full form.
Especially with how deep WR is around where he'll be drafted.
Despite being an absolute beast, I think that Todd Gurley will end up being a big bust for a lot of people this year. I feel as though he will still be RB5 or higher in a lot of leagues based on reputation, and that's going to let a lot of people down.
I currently have Gurley at RB7 on my list, as far as fantasy football value:
There are even some draft boards that put him as low as RB10!
I also think that Derrick Henry will let people down. Not necessarily into bust territory, but I think folks will be disappointed if they take him very high in the draft thinking that he's going to pick up where he left off last season.
For sleeper picks I'm going to double-down what @stempniaksen said and go with Mark Andrews at TE. Like he said, TE is such a wasteland, after the big 3 (Ertz, Kittle, Kelce) there's almost nothing, so Andrews could easily slot into that 4th spot with a little bit of luck in his rookie year. Wouldn't be any worse than gambling on a random WR.
Although he got a bit of clout last year, I also consider Calvin Ridley as a sleeper too. He's around 26-30 ranked WR, which I think is a little insulting for how great of a rookie season he had last year. Matt Ryan is still a pretty good NFL Quarterback, and I only see Ridley getting better after a VERY productive Rookie season. If you think of Julio Jones as Antonio Brown, then Calvin Ridley is the Falcon's JuJu Smith-Schuster.
I think the tight end field is sneakily stronger than past years. I don't mind taking Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed or Andrews in the late rounds. Then you still have Vance McDonald, Howard, Engram behind the big 3, I think it might be the strongest over the last few years.
I like Curtis Samuel as a sleeper, could end up as WR1 in Carolina tbh, but I do like DJ Moore too. Robby Anderson I think is going to have a big year. I'm high on Godwin but everyone is this year.
Predicting busts is always harder. I may be completely our on MGIII, Gurley and Zeke if these holdouts continue. It's just such a massive risk with your first few picks. I'm not as high on Conner or Mixon as others, I had Mixon last year and he was great but the o-line looks shaky and Gio seems to always steal passing downs.
Good RB's on bad teams mostly end up being disappointments because they don't get the usage/can get scripted out of games. A guy like Saquon seems bust proof given his talent, but I'm particularly worried about guys like D. Johnson, Leveon Bell, Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette. I'm especially high on Mixon's talent, but that's a bad team/situation he's stuck in. At least one of these guys (probably more) is going to bust completely, imo.
Personally, I find myself taking Connor/Cook/Gurley over all of those guys or waiting to take Freeman/Jones/K.Johnson a round or two later.
I'm not really worried about DJ in this situation tbh.
Kingsbury's history suggests they will run a lot of plays, and pass to the RB a lot. Add in them being behind and DJ is going to feast in PPR.
I'm certainly not as worried about DJ as I am with Lev/Mixon/Fournette, given the fact they've revamped that offence (mainly Kyler and Kingsbury) while adding some talented secondary pieces (Isabella, Butler, ect). They could easily turn it around and he'll be very valuable.
DJ from last season under McCoy is kind of the perfect example to my theory though. Guy is ultra talented and yet he doesn't meet expectations because of bad coaching/bad offence/bad team/ect. It's just easier to project guys on talented offences with good coaching.
I still find myself low enough on DJ that I rarely end up with him in mocks, but part of that is also the hype around the Cardinals this season and the fact he doesn't drop the same way a guy like Bell does on occasion.
Oh God yeah, McCoy was a disaster. I agree with you about Lev/Mixon, particularly Mixon. I think Lev might have the talent to overcome his team, and Darnold and Robby Anderson give him at least a resemblance of an offense.
Fournette is dropping enough that I might take a swing on him. There are definitely concerns but getting a true workhorse with the talent he has in the 3rd round could be a huge pick up if he stays healthy, and Foles improves the offense. Those are two big if's though, and are why he is dropping as far as he is.
I'm just not worried about DJ really at all for PPR, I'd probably take him 5th, and maybe even 4th if Zeke is holding out to start the season. I think Kingsbury/Murray will completely revamp the offense and we all know DJ has the talent.
Same with WR. When in doubt, I like to stock up on players that I know will be in top offenses. I know some prefer the volume of a WR1 in a bad offense over a WR2 in a good/great offense, but give me that WR2 any day.
I had Saquon last year, and while he had a big day on most occasions, it's nerve-racking when it looks like a dud because everyone else on the field sucks, but then he comes out of nowhere and breaks a play out of nothing. You have to have insane talent to produce in fantasy on crappy team. Just look at Gurley in 2016, even he could be productive on that team.
Haven't really looked into skill positions that much yet, but I think Jameis Winston and Kyler Murray both wind up QB1 this year. Winston's gonna put up big fantasy numbers with Arians. Even if he throws a pick or two a game.
Irv Smith Jr. is going to be the Vikings de facto #3 WR. If you want to take a shot with him as a TE in deeper leagues.
Lamar Jackson is offering incredible value at his ADP.
Piggybacking off this, because you're right, but Trubisky and Allen offer incredible value for similar reasons.
QB just seems so incredibly deep this season. I feel just as confident in the guys being taken as QB18-21 than I do in the guys being taken as QB4-8.
I'm treating QB the same way as TE, if I miss out on the top options I'm gonna end up waiting a long time.
I'm usually one of the last people to take a QB in one year leagues. This year will be no different.
Regarding David Johnson, I love the Cardinals offense as a whole this year (for fantasy... maybe not real life). They're going to be playing at a high pace, and their team will probably have a lot of garbage time. I'm not worried about DJ at all.
Agree almost entirely, I'd just say I trust Lamar's floor a little bit more as he should be running the ball consistently. That may be true of Trubisky and Allen as well, but I am not as confident.
I won't be drafting TE or QB until late unless a stupid value falls to me, and I don't see that happening very often. I'd be surprised if I don't go WR/RB for nearly 8 rounds then try to pick up someone like Lamar and Andrews/Reed/Olsen late.
I'd love Allen if he was in a good offense, he'd have Cam type upside IMO. After the few guys at the top, there just isn't much separation in the next 15ish guys.
Trubisky is someone I really like. Goff is another I hope drops. I want a QB on one of the high-flying offenses on the chance that they have an amazing year. Goff had an amazing first 12 games and ended poorly, but that was when Kupp was out and Gurley was banged up. A healthy Rams team, and Goff will destroy his current ADP IMO.
QB strategy should be just take that guy that falls in your lap.
Fool me once, fool me two times...
I love Donte Moncrief this year.
I think I've been getting better at holding on drafting QBs until later.
This draft I'm going to try and see how far I can stretch it.
Donte Moncrief has always produced, his problem is health
His numbers have always been a bit underwhelming though. He's in a great spot this year though.
Am I just being a homer by thinking Trubisky can end up being a top 10-12 QB this year? 2nd year in the system. Robinson a full year back from injury. Montgomery should be a better fit in the backfield. Really like him for where you can get him this year.
I like him as well. I think the Bears are going to be aggressive offensively since they have a relatively tough schedule. (Packers x2, Vikings x2, Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, Eagles, Saints). Trubisky is gonna throw the ball quite a bit.
I really like Trubisky, one of the guys out there that can offer a solid floor with his running. He was very boom/bust last year, so if he can get some consistency, then he'll be great. Worst case, pair him with another guy in his range and play the matchups.
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