2019 OPPF divisional semi-final: Parry Sound Shamrocks vs. Quebec Aces

[VanIslander]

Divisional semi-final (in standardized format):

Parry Sound Shamrocks

coach Anatoli Tarasov

Sid Abel - Newsy Lalonde (A) - Andy Bathgate
Anatoli Firsov - Frank Nighbor - Teemu Selanne
Esa Tikkanen - Doug Gilmour (A) - Martin St. Louis
Brian Sutter - Jonathan Toews - Jean Pronovost

Scott Stevens (C) - Dit Clapper
Moose Johnson - Rob Blake
Brad McCrimmon - Brent Burns

Dominik Hasek
Jiri Holecek


vs.


Quebec Aces

coach Joel Quenneville

Valery Kharlamov - Jean Beliveau (C) - Hooley Smith
Ilya Kovalchuk - Frank Boucher - Vaclav Nedomansky
Daniel Sedin - Bill Cowley - Dave Taylor
Jere Lehtinen - Ryan Getzlaf (A) - Bengt-Ake Gustafson

Red Kelly - Mark Howe
Carl Brewer - Lester Patrick (A)
Ryan Suter - Erik Karlsson

Glenn Hall
Sergei Bobrovsky​

Any changes to the line-up: make them in the posts.

Click to read more...

 

[VanIslander]

Parry Sound

PP1: Firsov - Lalonde - Selanne - Moose - Blake
PP2: Abel - Gilmour - Bathgate - Clapper - Burns

PK1: Nighbor - Gilmour - Moose - Stevens - Hasek
PK2: Toews - Tikkanen - McCrimmon - Clapper - Hasek

vs.

Quebec

PP1: Beliveau - Karlamov - Cowley - Kelly - Karlsson
PP2: Nedomansky - Boucher - Sedin - Kovalchuk - Patrick

PK1: Lehtinen - Smith - Suter - Howe - Hall
PK2: Boucher - Gustafsson - Brewer - Kelly - Hall

 

[VanIslander]

The Aces play a puck-possession game just like the Shamrocks do, but with a huge difference:

Which Aces centers are going to backcheck? Are any Aces top-6 forwards going to backcheck?

Moreover, the Aces have a relatively weaker second pairing and the third pairing is more of an offensive than defensive threat, so the LOAD of Aces attempts to disrupt the Shamrocks quick surges as well as passing attack will fall on the top pairing and goalie?

The Shamrocks will gladly trade 30+ shots per game with the Aces, yet, the overwhelmingly clear competitive advantage defensively at center ought to result in a disproportionate number of turnovers in favour of Parry Sound, hence higher quality shot situations and likely more of them; as well, a time-of-possession advantage.

If a clog-the-neutral-zone, dump-and-chase forecheck and relentless backcheck style may be the Achilles' hell of the Shamrocks style (as to some degree suggested during assassinations), the Aces are ill-equipped for it.

In addition: Tikkanen and Sutter can play as dirty as they want as Quebec has a clear lack of nasty retaliation or policeman presence. Stevens can go headhunting, Blake can hipcheck and cheapshot behind refs backs and physically play with the sort of intensity that playoff hockey becomes.

 

[VanIslander]

About coach Quenneville...

The driving force behind his victories has revolved around placing defense as a top-tier priority in all games, which is not always an easy philosophy to sell to Blackhawks players who are abundant with top-tier talent. Yet, this gives his stars freedom on offense, which wins the buy-in of his top team members. By focusing on defense, they are well-prepared for any situation during a game.

Will the Aces forwards buy into it?

Kharlamov? Kovalchuk? Sedin? ... Aces left wingers against Shamrocks potent right wingers... Lehtinen can't take on all three top-100 player great Shamrocks right wingers.

Cowley? He didn't backcheck, he has admitted. None of the Aces centers have been placed in the role of being the shutdown pivot for their teams and it's hard to see them preventing Lalonde, Nighbor and Gilmour (or even playoff clutch Toews) from making big plays in the playoffs.

Coach Q might be the angriest, nastiest member of the Quebec Aces organization. The ex-defenseman will likely not sleep well at night this series.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Which Aces centers are going to backcheck? Are any Aces top-6 forwards going to backcheck?

Frank Boucher is noted again and again for his ability to break up rushes. I see no reason why Beliveau and Getzlaf would be expected to "not backcheck". Hooley Smith, who is in the top-6, is the defensive equal of any forward in this series outside of Nighbor.

Moreover, the Aces have a relatively weaker second pairing and the third pairing is more of an offensive than defensive threat, so the LOAD of Aces attempts to disrupt the Shamrocks quick surges as well as passing attack will fall on the top pairing and goalie?

My second pairing is a little stronger on the strength of Kelly as my #1, your second pairing is stronger by about the same degree, allowing for the naturally smaller gaps you'd find between players as you get down the chart.
But what of the 3rd pairs? Frankly, I'd trust my mix of skillsets more, in that they're a little closer to balanced - I'd trust Suter to get the puck out of trouble efficiently, and Karlsson to actually play his position until such time as he gets the puck and can turn up ice. Yours are quite a bit more polarized, and with that comes the license to really attack the right side, and I have some dangerous LWs to do it.

The Shamrocks will gladly trade 30+ shots per game with the Aces, yet, the overwhelmingly clear competitive advantage defensively at center ought to result in a disproportionate number of turnovers in favour of Parry Sound, hence higher quality shot situations and likely more of them; as well, a time-of-possession advantage.

You could also note that Beliveau is far and away the best all-around centre in the game, and that Boucher offers a Nighbor-lite kind of style that can just as easily tip things in the other direction. Cowley requires some support from Taylor, no bones about that.

 

[Johnny Engine]

About coach Quenneville...


Will the Aces forwards buy into it?

Any more so than Patrick Kane..?

Kharlamov? Kovalchuk? Sedin? ... Aces left wingers against Shamrocks potent right wingers... Lehtinen can't take on all three top-100 player great Shamrocks right wingers.

Cowley? He didn't backcheck, he has admitted. None of the Aces centers have been placed in the role of being the shutdown pivot for their teams and it's hard to see them preventing Lalonde, Nighbor and Gilmour (or even playoff clutch Toews) from making big plays in the playoffs.

Depending on how you want to look at the ATD's translation of "playoff hockey", these paragraphs don't cohere. If consistent year after year production is what I need to worry about, I can probably turn my attention away from Toews. If stepping it up in the clutch is what I should be worried about, those top-two right wingers aren't potent at all. If a little of both (which is maybe the best way to look at it), they're both...ok? Like Toews will chip in one big goal, and Selanne and Bathgate will get looks all series long but not light up to scoreboard to any degree, but you're not winning the series on those two things.[/QUOTE]