Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Entry Draft Part II

[Smitty426]

Have a draft question with the end result being a trade. Wasn't sure if this was right thread so I'll try.
The Devils trade their 2 seconds this year for Boston/Colorado (lower) #1. Flip the first to Tor for Kasperi Kapanen. Other option is the two 2nds to Tor for Kap. Thoughts?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Have a draft question with the end result being a trade. Wasn't sure if this was right thread so I'll try.
The Devils trade their 2 seconds this year for Boston/Colorado (lower) #1. Flip the first to Tor for Kasperi Kapanen. Other option is the two 2nds to Tor for Kap. Thoughts?

The Devils are not getting Colorado's second #1, it's likely going to be in the teens. I think if Colorado gets a player who can help next year (Hughes or Kakko), they will dangle that second #1 for a player who can help them return to the post-season in 2019-20.

I have mentioned before the possibility of the Devils going after Kapanen, he would be a very intriguing fit as the second-line RW in NJ. I believe that if the Devils took on a contract Toronto wanted to dump (Horton? Marleau?), that Kapanen could be had at below market value. For instance, Quenneville or Mueller and a second-rounder for Kapanen and Marleau would be a good, and not unrealistic, deal for the Devils.

 

[Brodeur]

The Devils trade their 2 seconds this year for Boston/Colorado (lower) #1. Flip the first to Tor for Kasperi Kapanen. Other option is the two 2nds to Tor for Kap. Thoughts?

Toronto likely declines two 2nds for Kapanen. They probably figure that the worst case scenario is him signing an offer sheet which they can't match, but would likely be in the range that returns a 1st and 3rd (in 2020).

Ballpark for our 2nd/3rd rounders: NJD2 (35th), NSH2 (53rd), BOS2 (58th), ANA3 (69th), DAL3 (81st)

Some comparable trades to move up into the tail end of the first round in recent drafts:

2015:
Tampa trades #28 to NY Islanders for #33 and #72
Toronto trades #29 to Columbus for #34 and #68

2014:
Tampa trades #28 to NY Islanders for #35 and #57

2011:
Detroit trades #24 to Ottawa for #35 and #48

2010:
Chicago trades #30 to NY Islanders for #35 and #58

2009:
Detroit trades #29 to Tampa for #32 and #75

2008:
Anaheim trades #28 to Phoenix for #35 and #39

2007:
Washington trades #27 to San Jose for #41 and a future 2nd round pick

2006:
Detroit trades #29 Phoenix for #41 and #47

Probably not a coincidence Detroit traded down as they seem to like to do that (and probably Yzerman had a similar philosophy since he spent time in Detroit's front office before going to Tampa). With the amount of picks we have, trading up is a possibility but typically you don't see teams trade out until they're on the clock.

Doesn't make a ton of sense to trade down before you see who's there. I can think of it happening a couple times in 'recent' memory. Anaheim traded #12 for #17 and #28 before the 2008 Draft; Allegedly they were eyeing Erik Karlsson and thought they could still get him at #17 (Ottawa traded up and got him at #15). Columbus traded #16 and #77 for #26, #37, and #56. Then John Moore fell further than expected and they traded back up to #21 to get him at a cost of #26 and #37. I remember seeing video of Brian Burke at Toronto's table grumbling that Columbus' trades were a lot of work and didn't net them much versus had they just stayed and taken Moore with their original pick.

 

[Smitty426]

Toronto likely declines two 2nds for Kapanen. They probably figure that the worst case scenario is him signing an offer sheet which they can't match, but would likely be in the range that returns a 1st and 3rd (in 2020).

Ballpark for our 2nd/3rd rounders: NJD2 (35th), NSH2 (53rd), BOS2 (58th), ANA3 (69th), DAL3 (81st)

Some comparable trades to move up into the tail end of the first round in recent drafts:

2015:
Tampa trades #28 to NY Islanders for #33 and #72
Toronto trades #29 to Columbus for #34 and #68

2014:
Tampa trades #28 to NY Islanders for #35 and #57

2011:
Detroit trades #24 to Ottawa for #35 and #48

2010:
Chicago trades #30 to NY Islanders for #35 and #58

2009:
Detroit trades #29 to Tampa for #32 and #75

2008:
Anaheim trades #28 to Phoenix for #35 and #39

2007:
Washington trades #27 to San Jose for #41 and a future 2nd round pick

2006:
Detroit trades #29 Phoenix for #41 and #47

Probably not a coincidence Detroit traded down as they seem to like to do that (and probably Yzerman had a similar philosophy since he spent time in Detroit's front office before going to Tampa). With the amount of picks we have, trading up is a possibility but typically you don't see teams trade out until they're on the clock.

Doesn't make a ton of sense to trade down before you see who's there. I can think of it happening a couple times in 'recent' memory. Anaheim traded #12 for #17 and #28 before the 2008 Draft; Allegedly they were eyeing Erik Karlsson and thought they could still get him at #17 (Ottawa traded up and got him at #15). Columbus traded #16 and #77 for #26, #37, and #56. Then John Moore fell further than expected and they traded back up to #21 to get him at a cost of #26 and #37. I remember seeing video of Brian Burke at Toronto's table grumbling that Columbus' trades were a lot of work and didn't net them much versus had they just stayed and taken Moore with their original pick.

Great info here thanks. With that said does a 1st this year in the 23-27 range a better option than the addl 3rd in 2020? Yeah I know depends on the draft class, but I guess I am thinking bird in the hand.

 

[Smitty426]

The Devils are not getting Colorado's second #1, it's likely going to be in the teens. I think if Colorado gets a player who can help next year (Hughes or Kakko), they will dangle that second #1 for a player who can help them return to the post-season in 2019-20.

I have mentioned before the possibility of the Devils going after Kapanen, he would be a very intriguing fit as the second-line RW in NJ. I believe that if the Devils took on a contract Toronto wanted to dump (Horton? Marleau?), that Kapanen could be had at below market value. For instance, Quenneville or Mueller and a second-rounder for Kapanen and Marleau would be a good, and not unrealistic, deal for the Devils.

STI-Yes I see what you are saying, Colo is in 20th today, I was looking at Steve K Draft Analyst and it was obviously not up to date with the daily changes. I am thinking in the 21-27 range not sure what teams have picks/need picks
If Tor comes up short this year, will Marleau waive his NMC? I keep seeing Zaitsev thrown into every proposal, would he have to be included? Does a Santini (or similar) going back help Tor say yes
Lastly what other cap deals do you see Shero doing? I think its a great way to jump-start this build to end a little sooner

 

[njdevils1982]

Islanders fans do the same thing when they see "Tavares"

so well played.

 

[njdevils1982]

Toronto likely declines two 2nds for Kapanen. They probably figure that the worst case scenario is him signing an offer sheet which they can't match, but would likely be in the range that returns a 1st and 3rd (in 2020).

Ballpark for our 2nd/3rd rounders: NJD2 (35th), NSH2 (53rd), BOS2 (58th), ANA3 (69th), DAL3 (81st)

Some comparable trades to move up into the tail end of the first round in recent drafts:

2015:
Tampa trades #28 to NY Islanders for #33 and #72
Toronto trades #29 to Columbus for #34 and #68

2014:
Tampa trades #28 to NY Islanders for #35 and #57

2011:
Detroit trades #24 to Ottawa for #35 and #48

2010:
Chicago trades #30 to NY Islanders for #35 and #58

2009:
Detroit trades #29 to Tampa for #32 and #75

2008:
Anaheim trades #28 to Phoenix for #35 and #39

2007:
Washington trades #27 to San Jose for #41 and a future 2nd round pick

2006:
Detroit trades #29 Phoenix for #41 and #47

Probably not a coincidence Detroit traded down as they seem to like to do that (and probably Yzerman had a similar philosophy since he spent time in Detroit's front office before going to Tampa). With the amount of picks we have, trading up is a possibility but typically you don't see teams trade out until they're on the clock.

Doesn't make a ton of sense to trade down before you see who's there. I can think of it happening a couple times in 'recent' memory. Anaheim traded #12 for #17 and #28 before the 2008 Draft; Allegedly they were eyeing Erik Karlsson and thought they could still get him at #17 (Ottawa traded up and got him at #15). Columbus traded #16 and #77 for #26, #37, and #56. Then John Moore fell further than expected and they traded back up to #21 to get him at a cost of #26 and #37. I remember seeing video of Brian Burke at Toronto's table grumbling that Columbus' trades were a lot of work and didn't net them much versus had they just stayed and taken Moore with their original pick.

as always @Brodeur i enjoy your draft posts

you going to vancouver for this years?

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Assuming we don't win the lottery, I've established my top-3 wants outside of Hughes-Kakko:

1) Turcotte
2) Byram
3) Zegras

Mine is
1. Cozens
2. Byram
3. Turcotte

 

[StevenToddIves]

STI-Yes I see what you are saying, Colo is in 20th today, I was looking at Steve K Draft Analyst and it was obviously not up to date with the daily changes. I am thinking in the 21-27 range not sure what teams have picks/need picks
If Tor comes up short this year, will Marleau waive his NMC? I keep seeing Zaitsev thrown into every proposal, would he have to be included? Does a Santini (or similar) going back help Tor say yes
Lastly what other cap deals do you see Shero doing? I think its a great way to jump-start this build to end a little sooner

Zaitsev's contract is twice the $$ and three times the term of what it should have been, I would not deal for such a contract. Marleau's NMC could be an impediment, but maybe he waves it if he sees he's unwanted an goes to a team where he can reestablish himself in a more suitable role.

 

[Hughes86Hischier13]

ive only know of projected top 2 picks are other players just as good and is this consider a deep draft

 

[Brodeur]

as always @Brodeur i enjoy your draft posts

you going to vancouver for this years?

I have that weekend earmarked, but that might be dependent on where we end up after the lottery. 1-2 I think I'd definitely go, otherwise I'd probably debate if it's better to save the two days off for something else.

My old college roommate has been up in Seattle for a decade, but he recently took a job where he's working in Vancouver four days a week and then spends his weekend in Seattle. His work pays for his apartment in Vancouver. When he mentioned that, I asked (because I have no shame) "So, you're saying you have an apartment that you don't use on weekends?"

He'd probably go too, but he's a Sharks fan and San Jose gave up most of its early picks in the Kane/Karlsson/Nyquist trades.

 

[Brodeur]

ive only know of projected top 2 picks are other players just as good and is this consider a deep draft

I thought the general consensus was that the depth was above average. Down year for the OHL, but a very good year for the WHL. This year's USNTDP squad could rival the '97s (Matthews/Tkachuk/McAvoy/White among others). Off the top of my head, I think most lists have 7 guys on that team in the top 20.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I kind of like what I’ve been reading about Dach. I haven’t seen his name thrown around here too much. What’s the knock on him?

 

[MartyOwns]

I kind of like what I’ve been reading about Dach. I haven’t seen his name thrown around here too much. What’s the knock on him?

unless we’re picking 9 or 10 we should steer clear. there are better players available

 

[longislanddevil]

I kind of like what I’ve been reading about Dach. I haven’t seen his name thrown around here too much. What’s the knock on him?

I’ve read that his skating is “meh” and nowhere near the likes of other guys who will be drafted around him. He doesn’t fit the Shero blueprint of “FAST, attacking, supportive.” Well, perhaps the latter two attributes...but when there are other kids who can check off all three, I’d be surprised if he’s the pick. I can see an Anaheim squad who likes to play a “heavy” game with big players being more of a fit for example.

 

[devilsblood]

I kind of like what I’ve been reading about Dach. I haven’t seen his name thrown around here too much. What’s the knock on him?

Not a great skater and not a great goal scorer.

 

[glenwo2]

Islanders fans do the same thing when they see "Tavares"

 

[Nubmer6]

Bowen Byram - 2019 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

 

[StevenToddIves]

Bowen Byram - 2019 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

The Hockey Writers draft profiles have always been very good. Unfortunately, they pay very little and that's why I don't work for them anymore. But their draft writers tend to be quite competent.

As far as Byram goes, I think people are understating his upside still. From the beginning of the 2018-19 season until now, no first-round draft prospect has improved as remarkably as Byram, who was pretty terrific to begin with. It is difficult for me to find a scenario where he is not taken in the top 5.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

these last few games are going to be real interesting.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Bad news for the tank is we are getting bodies back, and outside of St. Louis all our remaining games are winnable.

Good news is we have games out of hand on everyone behind us. It’s going to be tight, but favorable results tonight help a lot.

 

[Devilswede]

People do remember that we lost most games even with a healthy lineup right?

 

[NJDevs26]

People do remember that we lost most games even with a healthy lineup right?

That was when we were getting **** goaltending. Now we're getting good goaltending 95% of the time from Blackwood and maybe 70% of the time from Cory.

Honestly right now the standings are our friend though...it would take something insane to get below 4 in the lotto odds considering we're six points behind the Rangers/Buffalo and they have two games in hand each. Anaheim's the only team we could even conceviably fall back from since they're seven points ahead but we have a game in hand, and that would still take some doing.

It's only about whether the odds get a 'little' better or not though, where we finish has little to do with where we'll draft in the end. The odds for getting the #1 pick is 13.5% for the Kings (2nd worst) and 9.5% for us (4th worst), which is pretty much our range now, bfd.

 

[MadDevil]

I think we probably end up right where we are now. We could still pass Detroit for #3, but if you look at our schedule compared to theirs, they probably won't earn more points than us the rest of the way. Although it's entirely possible we lose to them in regulation in Detroit on Friday, which could make things really interesting.

 

[NJDevs26]

If we really want to do a schedule deep dive of the teams that matter:

LA - at Calgary tomorrow, at Edmonton Tuesday, at Vancouver Thursday, Chicago at home Saturday, Calgary at home 4/1, at Arizona 4/2, at Anaheim 4/5, Vegas at home 4/6...yeah I don't see more than a couple wins out of that although Arizona could be out of it and Vegas could be locked in by the time they play the Kings.

Detroit - at Sharks Monday, at Buffalo Thursday, Devils home Friday, Boston home next Sunday, Pittsburgh on a home-and-home 4/2 and 4/4, home against Buffalo on 4/6. We could 'pass' them easily with those two games against Buffalo and the head to head. Those other games are pretty unwinnable though, unless Bleed's buddy Martin Jones wants to do us a solid.

NJ - Buffalo at home Monday, at Detroit Friday, Blues at home Saturday, Rangers at home 4/1, at Carolina 4/4, at Florida 4/6...I suspect we'll know whether we can drop further after our next two games. I don't see any seven-game winning streak to close out the season with those last four though (given how well the Rangers play us this season).

Yeah like Eddy said earlier 3-4 is probably our range at this point so it's more or less down to us and Detroit.