Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Draft.

[Rzombo4 prez]

Kotkaniemi wasn't really reached too high for though I agree Hayton was. Right before the draft Kot was the biggest riser and most had him going around pick 5-6 so he was only "reached" by a couple spots. And when you look organizationally at Montreal they where a barren wasteland after the ari-mtl trade at center. They where backed into a corner and had to take him and he was the best center in the draft this year.

Again, exactly what I fear for the Wings. I agree that Kotkaniemi was less of a reach, but he was still drafted where he was largely because of position (as opposed to talent).

 

[Frk It]

That is my exact fear. I don't want to be reaching for a defensemen like AZ and Montreal reached for centers last year. Hopefully we see some defensemen rise on their actual merits as opposed to rising because teams feel the need to reach for a position (i.e. Hayton).

Again, it is way too early to get stressed about this stuff, but it is an issue worth monitoring. No one ever said that rebuilding was easy.

I hear you, but it’s also a numbers game my friend.

More wingers/forwards get drafted than defenseman every year, so if you want to go BPA or die then have fun with your pipeline of wingers.

 

[jkutswings]

Again, exactly what I fear for the Wings. I agree that Kotkaniemi was less of a reach, but he was still drafted where he was largely because of position (as opposed to talent).

Bob McKenzie, whose list is made by polling NHL scouts, essentially said that:

* Dahlin was #1 with a bullet;
* Svech was the clear-cut #2; and
* 3-10 were all very close.

Kotkaniemi at 3 wasn't a reach at all. If he becomes a good NHL center, it'll be a smart pick. If he doesn't, it'll be a bust. But none of the other top picks were head and shoulders a more highly regarded prospect.

 

[Henkka]

We don't have any defensemen in our system that reasonably project as top-pair defensemen, let alone a true number one. I understand that you are a very optimistic poster, but you shouldn't let your optimism cloud your judgment. At some point we need to address the defense. We will end up like the Oilers if we play ostrich too much longer.

It's not about the optimism. If somebody surprises from our own group, fine.

But at some point we'll trade a proven one, when we have too much forward power.

That's why there's nothing wrong in drafting great forwards.

 

[jkutswings]

It's not about the optimism. If somebody surprises from our own group, fine.

But at some point we'll trade a proven one, when we have too much forward power.

That's why there's nothing wrong in drafting great forwards.

Assuming all the current forward prospects continue to look good. And they continue to hit on the forwards they draft.

But I'd rather cut out the middle man, and just draft another good defenseman or two.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Bob McKenzie, whose list is made by polling NHL scouts, essentially said that:

* Dahlin was #1 with a bullet;
* Svech was the clear-cut #2; and
* 3-10 were all very close.

Kotkaniemi at 3 wasn't a reach at all. If he becomes a good NHL center, it'll be a smart pick. If he doesn't, it'll be a bust. But none of the other top picks were head and shoulders a more highly regarded prospect.

This is a debate for a different thread. My short answer to your response is that Kotkaniemi rose late in the year because: (a) he plays center at his age group, and (b) because he showed well at the U18. His U18 performance but on the wing puts him easily outside of the top ten. His ranking by Bob's scouts absolutely reflects the position that he plays. Sometimes you just need to watch these kid play. My money says that five years from now we will not consider Kotkaniemi one of the top eight players from this draft class.

Again, at some point we need to address the blue line in some meaningful way. I am skeptical that the 2019 class will provide us with what we are looking for in that department.

 

[jkutswings]

This is a debate for a different thread. My short answer to your response is that Kotkaniemi rose late in the year because: (a) he plays center at his age group, and (b) because he showed well at the U18. His U18 performance but on the wing puts him easily outside of the top ten. His ranking by Bob's scouts absolutely reflects the position that he plays. Sometimes you just need to watch these kid play. My money says that five years from now we will not consider Kotkaniemi one of the top eight players from this draft class.

I just meant to say that people in general get too caught up in rankings. Whether he's 5 or 15 on draft day, if he turns into a top 10 caliber of player, it'll be a good pick.

Again, at some point we need to address the blue line in some meaningful way. I am skeptical that the 2019 class will provide us with what we are looking for in that department.

No argument there. Hopefully Detroit adds a few more picks, and can use a mix of drafting and trades to transform assets into a decent blue line.

 

[haulinbass]

I feel we have some pretty good defense prospects. You guys have to remember it only takes 2 guys to become anywhere from a 1 to 3 D. If you got those pieces it doesn't take a lot to fill the gaps. Obviously we have some promise in our young NHL forwards and prospects so we are in fairly good shape there at this stage. I think if we can land another top 5 pick in 2019 and hopefully grab a center with it, plus trade for another 2nd + 3rd rounder. We could have the players in our system that we need to move forward relying on a little bit of luck of course. Beyond next year there will still be some years of higher draft picks, but by next draft we could very well have the players together that will slowly start trending this team upwards. From there it will be supplementing our drafting with extra 2nds-4th rounders whenever we get a chance to pick those up.

I'm feeling pretty good about Hronek. He could very well be our 2-3 D who can play PP. I think Cholowski has the potential to become a #2. I really hope we see an impressive season in the AHL from him this year.

After this draft we had, our future does have a lot of promise. Now we just need a little bit of luck with these 2 defenders. I am finally excited for this team again. It will be a long road but there are things to be excited about.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I just meant to say that people in general get too caught up in rankings. Whether he's 5 or 15 on draft day, if he turns into a top 10 caliber of player, it'll be a good pick.

Right, but my concern isn't where people are taken, but that we will find ourselves in a position on draft day where the options at center (or even wing) look significantly better than our options on defense because the defensemen just aren't that strong on an absolute or relative basis. Again, it is too early to get too worked up about it, but the organization needs some sort of plan for addressing the blue line. I think acquiring additional picks is part of it, but it may also require parting with good current talent in some targeted transaction. If we learned anything from the CBJ-Nashville and the Edmonton-NJ deals it is that defensemen don't come cheap.

 

[Henkka]

Right, but my concern isn't where people are taken, but that we will find ourselves in a position on draft day where the options at center (or even wing) look significantly better than our options on defense because the defensemen just aren't that strong on an absolute or relative basis. Again, it is too early to get too worked up about it, but the organization needs some sort of plan for addressing the blue line. I think acquiring additional picks is part of it, but it may also require parting with good current talent in some targeted transaction. If we learned anything from the CBJ-Nashville and the Edmonton-NJ deals it is that defensemen don't come cheap.

History has proved, that there's bigger chance to get good defencemen after the TOP10 picks, than great forwards. Near history has also proved, that TOP10 forwards bust less than TOP10 picked defencemen.

Also, history has also proved, that TOP defencemen fly around on the trade market all the time.

We should be keeping OUR PLAN that way. Draft forwards high, defencemen later. Wait for the right trade for a proven defencemen.

Near history about defencemen trades:

- Erik Karlsson is now on the market, 99% sure to be traded.
- Jacob Trouba rumours all the time how he wants out from Winnipeg.
- Dougie Hamilton/Noah Hanifin just got traded.
- Justin Faulk has 90% sure rumors to be traded.
- Ryan McDonagh got traded at 2018 deadline.
- Dion Phaneuf got traded.
- Sami Vatanen got traded.
- Travis Hamonic got traded
- Mikhail Sergachev got traded.
- Kevin Shattenkirk got traded.
- Shea Weber/PK Subban got traded.
- Seth Jones got traded. (this would be the Red Wings -style of trade, you give a great forward from a strength)

The market is there. Keep drafting forwards high. Defencemen later. Trade forwards for D, when the right deal comes.

 

[Frk It]

But at some point we'll trade a proven one, when we have too much forward power.

That's why there's nothing wrong in drafting great forwards.

Haven't folks been saying this for like 5 years now? Logically, I get what you are saying. But it's not nearly that simple.

Plus good defenseman are a scarce commodity, so teams will be very resistant to give one up, and you will probably not get equal value back in a trade. (You will need to overpay with a better forward)

I mean if your premise was true and easy to pull off, every team would do it.

 

[lilidk]

History has proved, that there's bigger chance to get good defencemen after the TOP10 picks, than great forwards. Near history has also proved, that TOP10 forwards bust less than TOP10 picked defencemen.

Also, history has also proved, that TOP defencemen fly around on the trade market all the time.

We should be keeping OUR PLAN that way. Draft forwards high, defencemen later. Wait for the right trade for a proven defencemen.

Near history about defencemen trades:

- Erik Karlsson is now on the market, 99% sure to be traded.
- Jacob Trouba rumours all the time how he wants out from Winnipeg.
- Dougie Hamilton/Noah Hanifin just got traded.
- Justin Faulk has 90% sure rumors to be traded.
- Ryan McDonagh got traded at 2018 deadline.
- Dion Phaneuf got traded.
- Sami Vatanen got traded.
- Travis Hamonic got traded
- Mikhail Sergachev got traded.
- Kevin Shattenkirk got traded.
- Shea Weber/PK Subban got traded.
- Seth Jones got traded. (this would be the Red Wings -style of trade, you give a great forward from a strength)

The market is there. Keep drafting forwards high. Defencemen later. Trade forwards for D, when the right deal comes.

it is better take centers , they are the best commodities after defense . Problem is what is a price for Trouba for example ?
Penguins have average defense but they have the best centers in NHL.

 

[Henkka]

it is better take centers , they are the best commodities after defense . Problem is what is a price for Trouba for example ?
Penguins have average defense but they have the best centers in NHL.

Another good examples, why not to overhype this defence problem.

Penguins is one example, that Defence is NOT SO important in winning nowadays. Tampa and Nashville had the best Defences, both lost the Conference finals. Vegas with crap defence went to Finals. Capitals was ok. Toronto is also building themselves offence-first.

I think we could already have everything what we need to be to have enough good TOP2-TOP7 defence in our current drafted prospects. It just needs that one sweet and lucky situation, to make a trade for 1D, and we are set.

 

[Henkka]

Haven't folks been saying this for like 5 years now? Logically, I get what you are saying. But it's not nearly that simple.

Plus good defenseman are a scarce commodity, so teams will be very resistant to give one up, and you will probably not get equal value back in a trade. (You will need to overpay with a better forward)

That's the whole thing, where the building scenario is based for. We will OVERPAY with those forwards for a defenceman, when we keep drafting good forwards. We don't need 15 forwards for a hockey team.

But we don't have the talent pool yet. We have to keep drafting, and hoarding extra picks.

 

[jkutswings]

Haven't folks been saying this for like 5 years now? Logically, I get what you are saying. But it's not nearly that simple.

Plus good defenseman are a scarce commodity, so teams will be very resistant to give one up, and you will probably not get equal value back in a trade. (You will need to overpay with a better forward)

I mean if your premise was true and easy to pull off, every team would do it.

In 2019 the Wings trade Zadina for Parayko...and HFB explodes.

 

[Frk It]

Penguins have average defense but they have the best centers in NHL.

Penguins is one example, that Defence is NOT SO important in winning nowadays

Just 2 guys with a top 15 all time PPG... NBD

That's the whole thing, where the building scenario is based for. We will OVERPAY with those forwards for a defenceman, when we keep drafting good forwards. We don't need 15 forwards for a hockey team.

But we don't have the talent pool yet. We have to keep drafting, and hoarding extra picks.

Or we could just use a top 10 pick on a defenseman and get us a Provorov or Werenski. Seems much easier to me, especially since our GM doesn't really like to make big waves with trades.

 

[lilidk]

Bob McKenzie, whose list is made by polling NHL scouts, essentially said that:

* Dahlin was #1 with a bullet;
* Svech was the clear-cut #2; and
* 3-10 were all very close.

Kotkaniemi at 3 wasn't a reach at all. If he becomes a good NHL center, it'll be a smart pick. If he doesn't, it'll be a bust. But none of the other top picks were head and shoulders a more highly regarded prospect.

If it is like that then right thing to do was to trade down, but I remember how many was against it, because outside 10 was big dropout.

 

[lilidk]

Our defense will be much better if we have better forwards and if we have better coaching staff who can bring the best from the players. Red wings fans had been spoiled with Bowman and Babcock

 

[obey86]

If our roster/depth chart of young players ends up being something like this after the next few drafts (assuming Zadina lives up to the hype and Larkin maintains his play as a 60+ point center) there's a very good chance the team has a good offense and is in very good shape for the future IMO. I don't think this is remotely unrealistic.

Rasmussen - Newhook - Mantha
Zadina - Larkin - Bertuzzi
AA - Veleno - Berggren/Svechnikov

Cholowski - 2020 Top 5/10 pick
Hronek - ????

Kronwall and Ericsson are both gone after 2 more seasons which will REALLY help the defense just from a pure skating/speed perspective IMO even if the players replacing them aren't amazing.

You get a roster like the above, and it's much more likely someone like Trouba or Werenski would be willing to sign here down the road if they don't want to be long term in Winnipeg/Columbus.

It's not going to take 5-10 years to get this team competitive again. If the team makes a few key decisions correctly over the next two offseasons, starting with the 2020-2021 season the Red Wings are a team with significant young talent on the upswing.

Hell, get REALLY lucky and get Hughes at #1 next draft, the Wings have a comparable young forward group to what Toronto has had the last two seasons.

 

[jkutswings]

Except that the 2020 draft pick on defense will likely take 2-3 years before they're even a regular, let alone a top pair guy in the NHL.

I could see Detroit in 2020 being on the path to what Toronto was last year. But even with Hronek and Cholowski both panning out, it'll take awhile for the defense to become respectable.

 

[Frk It]

One thing I will point out, as good a player as Hughes is, I think he will likely end up a winger in the NHL. He’s similar to Patrick Kane for me in terms of how he plays and his build, so I expect a similar outcome.

Otherwise, too hard to guess the top 10 this far out. Just hoping some defenseman emerge legtimately, and I think some will.

 

[raymond23]

Or we could just use a top 10 pick on a defenseman and get us a Provorov or Werenski. Seems much easier to me, especially since our GM doesn't really like to make big waves with trades.

True. You just want to make sure he is that guy. Don't want us reaching for an iffy defenseman. It's a tough spot to be in, admittedly.

Also hoping for some defenseman to emerge.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

It would be nice if we could get a top 5 pick in the 2019 draft.

Hughes looks lethal. Need to start watching some footage of Newhook and Kaako.

 

[obey86]

Except that the 2020 draft pick on defense will likely take 2-3 years before they're even a regular, let alone a top pair guy in the NHL.

I could see Detroit in 2020 being on the path to what Toronto was last year. But even with Hronek and Cholowski both panning out, it'll take awhile for the defense to become respectable.

I said they would be on the upswing, not competing for championships in 2 years. And if Hughes/Newhook and Zadina are as good as everyone thinks they are/can be, they can still compete for the playoffs in a few years while they continue to develop the defense/defensemen. It's funny, everyone here said they would have been excited to be a toronto fan to have made the playoffs for the first time a few years ago because they were a young team still growing and and would likely better as the years went on even though everyone knew they weren't legit contenders for a stanley cup at the time. Why wouldn't that same reasoning apply to the Red Wings in 2020-2021 in my scenario outlined above?

 

[jkutswings]

I said they would be on the upswing, not competing for championships in 2 years. And if Hughes/Newhook and Zadina are as good as everyone thinks they are/can be, they can still compete for the playoffs in a few years while they continue to develop the defense/defensemen. It's funny, everyone here said they would have been excited to be a toronto fan to have made the playoffs for the first time a few years ago because they were a young team still growing and and would likely better as the years went on even though everyone knew they weren't legit contenders for a stanley cup at the time. Why wouldn't that same reasoning apply to the Red Wings in 2020-2021 in my scenario outlined above?

If I were a Leafs fan, I'd be excited because:
1) There's tangible progress; and
2) I have great confidence in both the plan and the front office executing it.

In Detroit, there's reason to believe that box #1 will be checked off soon. But there are still mixed feelings about box #2 with the current regime, let alone not knowing who will be here in a few years.