GDT: 2019 NHL Draft Day 2: 1:00 EST

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Blender

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This "who had a good draft?" bullshit that comes up a day after the draft every year is ridiculous and pathetic. You can't tell who had a good draft for years.
 

NJDevs26

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What is the general consensus here on our draft? Besides Hughes and the trade for Subban.

I know nothing of Okhotyuk, Misyul, Clarke, Vukojevic etc.

I thought the trade with Sharks was bad, not good value for a high pick like that and because there were some good players available at 55 that I wanted, and at 61 instead of Okhotyuk, but I can't really say so much about it since we don't know as much as the scouts.

I don't actually disagree with that but you pretty much have to look at the two tradedowns as one move since one of the picks we got in the first tradedown was used in the second. Essentially we got #82 (Vukojevic), #118 (McCarthy) and #129 (Gritsyuk) for #55 in the end.
 

Nubmer6

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What is the general consensus here on our draft? Besides Hughes and the trade for Subban.

I know nothing of Okhotyuk, Misyul, Clarke, Vukojevic etc.

I thought the trade with Sharks was bad, not good value for a high pick like that and because there were some good players available at 55 that I wanted, and at 61 instead of Okhotyuk, but I can't really say so much about it since we don't know as much as the scouts.
I don't follow prospects, but I REALLY liked the Misyul pick. He jumped out at me when watching the world juniors. He was head and shoulders ahead of anyone else on the Belarus team, and to get him much lower than most pundits predicted he'd go makes me quite happy.
 

devilsblood

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This "who had a good draft?" bull**** that comes up a day after the draft every year is ridiculous and pathetic. You can't tell who had a good draft for years.
Meh, that's kind of like saying predraft stuff is ridiculous cause you just don't know.

And your right, the post draft stuff is guys not liking that someone else has a different draft board, but at the same time, it's all in good fun.
 

devilsblood

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Mar 10, 2010
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What is the general consensus here on our draft? Besides Hughes and the trade for Subban.

I know nothing of Okhotyuk, Misyul, Clarke, Vukojevic etc.

I thought the trade with Sharks was bad, not good value for a high pick like that and because there were some good players available at 55 that I wanted, and at 61 instead of Okhotyuk, but I can't really say so much about it since we don't know as much as the scouts.
I find the 55 pick interesting, because you have an obvious guy to point to in Leeson as a comparable. Now if Leeson proves to be too plodding then Castron wins, if Leeson turns into a legit top 6 player, well that will certainly be a talking point.

On the other hand if our guys pan out, it's all good.
 

Triumph

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Oct 2, 2007
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What is the general consensus here on our draft? Besides Hughes and the trade for Subban.

I know nothing of Okhotyuk, Misyul, Clarke, Vukojevic etc.

I thought the trade with Sharks was bad, not good value for a high pick like that and because there were some good players available at 55 that I wanted, and at 61 instead of Okhotyuk, but I can't really say so much about it since we don't know as much as the scouts.

I don't love it. Feels like a draft where they picked for need instead of BPA, too many defensive defensemen, and those that were picked were picked too high. Doubtful they come out with a ton from this other than Hughes.
 
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Blender

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Meh, that's kind of like saying predraft stuff is ridiculous cause you just don't know.

And your right, the post draft stuff is guys not liking that someone else has a different draft board, but at the same time, it's all in good fun.
Pre-draft stuff is a bit different since it's more focused on player evaluations and such. What people tend to miss is that they focus on a very small group of players they like, but when other teams draft them and we take someone else, they assume that the players we took are "worse" because they weren't the focus pre-draft.
 

Triumph

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Pre-draft stuff is a bit different since it's more focused on player evaluations and such. What people tend to miss is that they focus on a very small group of players they like, but when other teams draft them and we take someone else, they assume that the players we took are "worse" because they weren't the focus pre-draft.

This kind of evaluation, I agree, is bad. That's why I don't really read up on the players beyond the first round - I'll catch stuff here and there but the idea of 'risers' and 'fallers' and whatnot - doesn't mean a lot to me in the 2nd and later rounds.

But the only time to evaluate a draft is right after it. Yeah, some guys who look like bad picks right away will turn out not to be, but most will. Likewise a lot of guys who look like good picks will turn out not to be NHLers.
 

R8Devs

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I don't love it. Feels like a draft where they picked for need instead of BPA, too many defensive defensemen, and those that were picked were picked too high. Doubtful they come out with a ton from this other than Hughes.
probably just hoping one of those guys becomes an effective defensive defenseman at the NHL level. taking those kind of picks when you don't have a lot of draft picks sucks but when you have 11 it's more palatable considering they still went with low-risk/potentially high reward picks in Gritsyuk/Pasic and got Hughes at the top of the draft.

I saw this on twitter
D9uWP-iWkAAGR2h.png
 

TheDuke93

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I don't love it. Feels like a draft where they picked for need instead of BPA, too many defensive defensemen, and those that were picked were picked too high. Doubtful they come out with a ton from this other than Hughes.
They traded down, and picked up more picks after trading picks, they drafted guys were they felt they belonged. I have more faith in this scouting team then I have ever had before, we drafted 4 defensive defensemen that have all been said to have good outlet passes and are mobile. If we get even a single top 4 defensemen out of the draft it absolutely is a steal to go along with our abundance of talented puck movers and high skilled forwards in Hall / Nico / Hughes / Bratt / Boqvist. That doesn't include Palms / Zacha and the abundance of young middle six projectable forwards we have in the system. They saw a glaring need in the farm and addressed it through volume while taking guys that still have some talent to them. Drafting is a crap shoot to begin with but so far our team has done an excellent job. In 5 years we can look back and see misses but I highly suspect we will see at least one out of those 4 shutdown guys as being a BPA available and in a re draft would most likely go in the first.
 

TheDuke93

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probably just hoping one of those guys becomes an effective defensive defenseman at the NHL level. taking those kind of picks when you don't have a lot of draft picks sucks but when you have 11 it's more palatable considering they still went with low-risk/potentially high reward picks in Gritsyuk/Pasic and got Hughes at the top of the draft.

I saw this on twitter
D9uWP-iWkAAGR2h.png
To add to this, most of this board as well as our very own draft guys @StevenToddIves / @thethinglonger and everyone else that I can't think of off the top of my head, sorry about that, all agree our only major reach was Tyce Thompson. In my opinion that makes this draft in itself an absolute success.
 
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StevenToddIves

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What’s the honest unbiased thoughts on the isles and Lou’s draft

I was very vocal that the Islanders, along with Buffalo and Detroit, were the winners of the 2018 draft. Last year, the Isles just knocked it out of the park -- Wahlstrom, Dobson, Wilde, Ishkarov, Blade Jenkins in the 5th round. The Isles just nailed it.

This year, I felt the opposite. Simon Holmstrom was a reach at #23. The Isles did not have a lot of picks; if they really had Holmstrom ranked so high, they should have traded down and gotten more picks. But considering how badly the Isles needed a #2 center somewhere in the pipeline and the fact that Phil Tomasino went with the very next pick to Nashville (and Beecher 6 picks later to Boston)... well, it baffled me.

LD Samuel Bolduc was the Isles' best pick, in my estimation, but even he comes with great risk. To me, Bolduc was very comparable to Philip Broberg -- an incredible athletic specimen who often seems baffled by his position. But his upside is huge, so even though there is risk there, it's a nice pick at #57 overall. I mean, that size and speed combo is just incredibly uncommon.

The problem is, neither Holmstrom nor Broberg are sure bets. Holmstrom has battled injury and inconsistency, Bolduc is a high-risk, high-reward project. There is the possibility that after a lights-out 2018 draft, the Isles 2019 draft yields little. I did think Reece Newkirk was a solid pick in the 5th round.
 

StevenToddIves

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What is the general consensus here on our draft? Besides Hughes and the trade for Subban.

I know nothing of Okhotyuk, Misyul, Clarke, Vukojevic etc.

I thought the trade with Sharks was bad, not good value for a high pick like that and because there were some good players available at 55 that I wanted, and at 61 instead of Okhotyuk, but I can't really say so much about it since we don't know as much as the scouts.

I'll write something up. The Devils knocked it out of the park, in my opinion.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Pronman gave us the only A+ in his entire draft grades. To be fair, he qualified this by basically saying it has a lot to do with snagging Hughes. Says Misyul’s game “screams NHL player”.

Pronman always downgrades defensemen, and really, really downgrades defensive-minded defensemen. I would disagree with most of his write-up, though I would agree with his views on Hughes and Misyul and his overall draft grade for the Devils.
 

Blender

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To add to this, most of this board as well as our very own draft guys @StevenToddIves / @thethinglonger and everyone else that I can't think of off the top of my head, sorry about that, all agree our only major reach was Tyce Thompson. In my opinion that makes this draft in itself an absolute success.
Tyce Thompson was the only pick I didn't like, but who knows the team could have seen things from him that justifies picking him there.
 
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Nubmer6

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I was very vocal that the Islanders, along with Buffalo and Detroit, were the winners of the 2018 draft. Last year, the Isles just knocked it out of the park -- Wahlstrom, Dobson, Wilde, Ishkarov, Blade Jenkins in the 5th round. The Isles just nailed it.

This year, I felt the opposite. Simon Holmstrom was a reach at #23. The Isles did not have a lot of picks; if they really had Holmstrom ranked so high, they should have traded down and gotten more picks. But considering how badly the Isles needed a #2 center somewhere in the pipeline and the fact that Phil Tomasino went with the very next pick to Nashville (and Beecher 6 picks later to Boston)... well, it baffled me.

LD Samuel Bolduc was the Isles' best pick, in my estimation, but even he comes with great risk. To me, Bolduc was very comparable to Philip Broberg -- an incredible athletic specimen who often seems baffled by his position. But his upside is huge, so even though there is risk there, it's a nice pick at #57 overall. I mean, that size and speed combo is just incredibly uncommon.

The problem is, neither Holmstrom nor Broberg are sure bets. Holmstrom has battled injury and inconsistency, Bolduc is a high-risk, high-reward project. There is the possibility that after a lights-out 2018 draft, the Isles 2019 draft yields little. I did think Reece Newkirk was a solid pick in the 5th round.
Get used to it.

This is the first year of full Lou scouting and picking. :nod:
 

Triumph

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They traded down, and picked up more picks after trading picks, they drafted guys were they felt they belonged. I have more faith in this scouting team then I have ever had before, we drafted 4 defensive defensemen that have all been said to have good outlet passes and are mobile. If we get even a single top 4 defensemen out of the draft it absolutely is a steal to go along with our abundance of talented puck movers and high skilled forwards in Hall / Nico / Hughes / Bratt / Boqvist. That doesn't include Palms / Zacha and the abundance of young middle six projectable forwards we have in the system. They saw a glaring need in the farm and addressed it through volume while taking guys that still have some talent to them. Drafting is a crap shoot to begin with but so far our team has done an excellent job. In 5 years we can look back and see misses but I highly suspect we will see at least one out of those 4 shutdown guys as being a BPA available and in a re draft would most likely go in the first.

Shutdown guys are almost never that valuable, so no, it's quite unlikely that even in a redraft they would go in the 1st round. At least you admit that they did draft for need. The reason why I had faith in this scouting team is because they avoided taking D high and didn't draft based on tools but rather results. They seem to have forgone that in this draft.

I like the later round picks, but those are still less likely to turn out.
 
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StevenToddIves

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I don't love it. Feels like a draft where they picked for need instead of BPA, too many defensive defensemen, and those that were picked were picked too high. Doubtful they come out with a ton from this other than Hughes.

Defensive defensemen are rarely reaches. These are guys who are sorely undervalued. No one is ranking Misyul or McCarthy in their top 50, and yet you see players like Anttoni Honka, who have remote chances of making the NHL at best, ranked in top 30s. Why? Draft writers can be like barracuda staring at shiny things -- "oooooh, look at him skate circles around a bunch of 17 year olds who will never be drafted in the Finnish J20!"

Conversely, you get a guy like Michael Vukojevic, who is the opposite of "shiny". His job is to separate the opposing forward from the puck, then quickly get the puck up ice to one of the superior puck-carriers on his team -- and he is very good at this. Vukojevic is considered one of the top defensive defensemen in the OHL by pretty much everyone, and also adds a physical element.

Now, this physical element is often downplayed by the analytics community, simply because there is no way to numerically quantify its value. But I think we can all ask the St. Louis Blues or Boston Bruins how valuable it is to have a physical blueline.

The biggest problem for the NJ Devils in 2018-19 (along with poor goaltending and injuries) was that their entire blueline was routinely rag dolled by the opposition. Ray Shero and Paul Castron clearly saw this, as they clearly watched the 2019 NHL playoffs, and they addressed it.

So, back to the point about the draft valuation of physical, defensive defensemen. As I've stated, they are often undervalued. In my mind, Daniil Misyul and Case McCarthy are both high-probabilities of making the NHL. I think their floor is as 3rd pairing guys, whereas McCarthy's upside is as the Brandon Carlo to your Torrey Krug. On the Devils, that may one day translate to "the Case McCarthy to your Ty Smith". Misyul's upside is even higher -- his ceiling is a physical, offensively capable, two-way top-pairing guy. These picks were both incredible values.

I would agree that Okhotyuk was picked higher than necessary. Clearly, the Devils scouting was enamored with his mix of athleticism and physicality and defensive acumen. He plays a very safe game however, and is a low risk pick. He's probably a third-pairing guy but his simplicity gives him very low risk, and his skating and puck skills give him some second-pairing upside. Vukojevic was a good pick where he was taken; unless he improves his skating he's likely also a third-pairing LD, but one who offers intimidating physicality -- opposing forwards are not getting the third whacks at rebounds with him on the ice that they have enjoyed for the past four seasons against the Devils.

In sum, it is difficult to play against players like Misyul, McCarthy, Okhotyuk and Vukojevic. The Devils blueline in 2018-19 was likely the easiest to play against in the entire NHL. This needed to change, and the Devils braintrust addressed it.

For the draft fans who want every player to be a potentially high-reward, high-skill player? The Devils did get them. Graeme Clarke has 30+ goal upside (and also risk). Gritsyuk and Pasic have top-6 upside (and also some risk). So, I feel the opposite of you -- to say the Devils are coming away with little aside from Hughes in this draft is seriously underestimating this draft for the Devils. When you add in the high-floor of sixth-round steal Moynihan, it was a coup, likely the best draft in the entire NHL with Hughes factored in.
 

TheDuke93

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Shutdown guys are almost never that valuable, so no, it's quite unlikely that even in a redraft they would go in the 1st round. At least you admit that they did draft for need. The reason why I had faith in this scouting team is because they avoided taking D high and didn't draft based on tools but rather results. They seem to have forgone that in this draft.

I like the later round picks, but those are still less likely to turn out.
I feel like most of the guys around the league that are true shutdown defensemen would would 100% go in the 1st in almost every draft classes re draft. Almost every re re draft has 4th line checkers in the 20-31 draft slots, your telling me a 20min a night guy is less valuable then a 4th line checker? So no I 100% disagree with your assessment shutdown defensemen are much more valuable then you think.
 

Triumph

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Defensive defensemen are rarely reaches. These are guys who are sorely undervalued. No one is ranking Misyul or McCarthy in their top 50, and yet you see players like Anttoni Honka, who have remote chances of making the NHL at best, ranked in top 30s. Why? Draft writers can be like barracuda staring at shiny things -- "oooooh, look at him skate circles around a bunch of 17 year olds who will never be drafted in the Finnish J20!"]

This can only be based on a very short memory of past drafts. When you grade out guys who have the offensive results of Okhotyuk, very few of them reach the NHL. If you want to limit it to players drafted in the first 3 rounds, you won't do a ton better. It isn't that offensive production is *necessary* in the NHL, but rather that offensive production in lower leagues suggests the kind of ability with the puck that will allow a player to play in the league - plenty of guys go from being offense providers at the lower level to being one-dimensional in the NHL.

Conversely, you get a guy like Michael Vukojevic, who is the opposite of "shiny". His job is to separate the opposing forward from the puck, then quickly get the puck up ice to one of the superior puck-carriers on his team -- and he is very good at this. Vukojevic is considered one of the top defensive defensemen in the OHL by pretty much everyone, and also adds a physical element.

Now, this physical element is often downplayed by the analytics community, simply because there is no way to numerically quantify its value. But I think we can all ask the St. Louis Blues or Boston Bruins how valuable it is to have a physical blueline.

Great, ask them. Parayko was an overage pick but he put up offense in the year he was drafted. Brandon Carlo is a wildly overrated player around here. He's a fine mid-pairing D who provides almost no offense. The physical element is all about shots for and shots against. That's it. If a player doesn't positively influence those it's hard to be any good.

The biggest problem for the NJ Devils in 2018-19 (along with poor goaltending and injuries) was that their entire blueline was routinely rag dolled by the opposition. Ray Shero and Paul Castron clearly saw this, as they clearly watched the 2019 NHL playoffs, and they addressed it.

So you also are saying the Devils drafted for need. Drafting for need is generally bad - I will only endorse it in rare circumstances, and this is certainly not one of them.

So, back to the point about the draft valuation of physical, defensive defensemen. As I've stated, they are often undervalued.

You've been at this how many years and your assertion is that they are undervalued? I don't understand unless you just aren't seeing the results and only focus on prospects. The days of drafting the pure tomato cans in the first round are over, unfortunately for New Jersey, but where are these D around the NHL getting big ice time and providing massive value to their team? Carlo is one guy. I just searched for D who played 1200 minutes last year and sorted by PIM - the guys in the top 20 of PIM who I think you would describe as a 'physical, defensive defenseman' are Ian Cole, Darnell Nurse, Erik Gudbranson, Nikita Zadorov, Roman Polak, Scott Mayfield, Joel Edmundson, Tyler Myers, Robert Hagg, Radko Gudas, Josh Manson, Brenden Dillon.

Of these, Cole, Nurse, Gudbranson, Zadorov, and Myers were drafted in the 1st round.

Mayfield and Hagg were drafted in the 2nd round.

This doesn't strike me as these players being undervalued. Most of these are bottom-pairing guys. I like Gudas a lot and Dillon's pretty good but a lot of these players I don't think are very good. Then there's the giant penumbra of guys under this who were high-floor players who didn't make it at all or are fringe guys.

In my mind, Daniil Misyul and Case McCarthy are both high-probabilities of making the NHL. I think their floor is as 3rd pairing guys, whereas McCarthy's upside is as the Brandon Carlo to your Torrey Krug. On the Devils, that may one day translate to "the Case McCarthy to your Ty Smith". Misyul's upside is even higher -- his ceiling is a physical, offensively capable, two-way top-pairing guy. These picks were both incredible values.

When I hear this about high floors for players drafted in the late rounds I get very skeptical. Misyul is the one guy I don't mind because I suspect there's value in the MHL because of how poorly scouted it is. The USNDP and the OHL, the notion of getting value there, I'm quite skeptical - everyone saw those. That said, I don't want high floors - I want high ceilings. Santini was a high-floor guy - great, the Devils got 100 games of below-average play out of him, then managed to move him.

I would agree that Okhotyuk was picked higher than necessary. Clearly, the Devils scouting was enamored with his mix of athleticism and physicality and defensive acumen. He plays a very safe game however, and is a low risk pick. He's probably a third-pairing guy but his simplicity gives him very low risk, and his skating and puck skills give him some second-pairing upside. Vukojevic was a good pick where he was taken; unless he improves his skating he's likely also a third-pairing LD, but one who offers intimidating physicality -- opposing forwards are not getting the third whacks at rebounds with him on the ice that they have enjoyed for the past four seasons against the Devils.

In sum, it is difficult to play against players like Misyul, McCarthy, Okhotyuk and Vukojevic. The Devils blueline in 2018-19 was likely the easiest to play against in the entire NHL. This needed to change, and the Devils braintrust addressed it.

For the draft fans who want every player to be a potentially high-reward, high-skill player? The Devils did get them. Graeme Clarke has 30+ goal upside (and also risk). Gritsyuk and Pasic have top-6 upside (and also some risk). So, I feel the opposite of you -- to say the Devils are coming away with little aside from Hughes in this draft is seriously underestimating this draft for the Devils. When you add in the high-floor of sixth-round steal Moynihan, it was a coup, likely the best draft in the entire NHL with Hughes factored in.

I think this will all sound quite absurd in a few years. If anything, the Devils overreacted to what should be a non-existent 'trend'. The puck is the important thing and yeah they've got a lot of guys in the system who know what to do with it, but it doesn't mean they can go picking players high who don't seem to know that.
 
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Goptor

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Drafting a Steve Santini in the 2nd round is risky and trends are showing that teams are reluctant to do that.

Drafting 3 Steve Santinis with a 2nd round pick significantly increases the odds of getting an NHL player out of it - even more so that the Santinis are falling to the 4th round due to the trends above.
 
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