OT: 2019-nCov (Part 6) QuaranSpring Edition

[McGees]

I wouldn't be surprised if the USA has over 12,000 cases today.

Canada's numbers we're low yesterday, but it's only because BC didn't release their numbers for whatever reason.

They don’t test enough to know their actual amount. I fear for them

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Not saying it will go away in 14 days, but it's the initial date they set, so let's see what happens then.
If there is no flattening of the curve, then they might extend the quarantine. At some point though, people will need to be out and about, businesses will need to reopen.
Keeping people inside and closing everything save for groceries and the essential likes, banning any type gathering over 2 people, those aren't sustainable solutions.
So, they gave themselves 14 days to come up with ideas on how to improve society, I assume that's what they're doing now and not focused on seclusion.
In China when crap went down, they built hospitals, created apps to track the travelers/sick, tissues to use on often touched things like elevator buttons, security checks in front of every big building and throughout the city.
Same in Korea, they just started testing everyone like crazy and were able to contain it.

They're adding more drive-through clinics, they're putting barriers in front of IGA tellers, limiting the amount of people who can go in at the same time, making people disinfect their hands before entering stores, etc...We need more measures like these so we can get back to a more normal way of life.

Let's close everything, prevent people from seeing each other, businesses shut down, unemployment rise, that's not a solution. I don't think they can keep this on past mid-april..people are always going nuts a week into social distance.

I agree with you that it is not sustainable long term, but I don't think have alot of options at this point. China was may forceful with their social distancing measures and if their experts were here surely they would warn us that we not doing enough. Same thing they told Italy, the problem here is that no one trusts government for a full fledged lock down. They believe there is something sinister behind their motives and although I don't trust government much either I don't believe the half measures we have implemented are enough.

There are groups still going to the park, kids playing street hockey and basketball. People don't listen and think because they are young and likely not vulnerable that they don't have to worry, but the concern isn't for them, it is for those who are vulnerable. I think we are further away from returning to what you would consider normal routine than mid April.

I think if they put a full fledge lock down in order we would have a chance of returning to normal on your timeline, but I don't think it's likely under current conditions.

 

[FrankMTL]

So, one thing I've noticed is that as more and more nations get this virus and report their numbers, it seems like the death rate is between 4-6%, which further suggests that China and Iran weren't accurately reporting their numbers.

But that doesn't count people who have it but don't have any symptoms or don't get tested. We will never really know the exact death rate.

 

[McGees]

China took 3-4 months to partially resume a return to areas of workforce and that was with hardcore lockdown, everyone in face mask, stay home, fog machine buildings daily, hazmat suit police grabbing people off the street kind of enforcement. We are not going back to normal for a while. Trust.

I agree with you that it is not sustainable long term, but I don't think have alot of options at this point. China was may forceful with their social distancing measures and if their experts were here surely they would warn us that we not doing enough. Same thing they told Italy, the problem here is that no one trusts government for a full fledged lock down. They believe there is something sinister behind their motives and although I don't trust government much either I don't believe the half measures we have implemented are enough.

There are groups still going to the park, kids playing street hockey and basketball. People don't listen and think because they are young and likely not vulnerable that they don't have to worry, but the concern isn't for them, it is for those who are vulnerable. I think we are further away from returning to what you would consider normal routine than mid April.

I think if they put a full fledge lock down in order we would have a chance of returning to normal on your timeline, but I don't think it's likely under current conditions.

​

 

[Andy]

please share as much you can.

 

[Forum93]

If you thought the market was going down another 30%, then it would be smart to sell now and buy again after that 30% drop. Of course, there is no timing the market. While I think it's likely the market drops further, it's impossible to say; there's too much noise, too many actors involved that can influence this. And that's why it's tough to sell (or buy) right now with any confidence.

I don't know how low it's going to fall, might be another 20 but as a worst case scenario I'm guessing another 30%. If you cash it out now, then all the previous gains would be permanently wiped out , you'll lose all the shares you still own at the moment, and you'll be re-investing with a lower amount of capital, hoping to time the market. I think it's too late and better to keep the shares and hope bankruptcies are limited.

 

[Andy]

'Merica. Where money matters more than your life

 

[NotProkofievian]

This is from Alberta’s Chief Medical Officer

I don't disagree. I think a limitation on congregations of people, non-essential business etc. is warranted. But the stuff that's going on in Spain, for instance, is just absurd and draconian. The willingness that some people have to accept it is frightening.

 

[Mike8]

I don't know how low it's going to fall, might be another 20 but as a worst case scenario I'm guessing another 30%. If you cash it out now, then all the previous gains would be permanently wiped out , you'll lose all the shares you still own at the moment, and you'll be re-investing with a lower amount of capital, hoping to time the market. I think it's too late and better to keep the shares and hope bankruptcies are limited.

Sorry, but this doesn't quite make sense. If you're certain that the market is going down sooner, then you're better off selling now and buying after it falls. The previous gains are irrelevant here. Look at the math: if you have 100 shares of a stock that traded at $150 a month ago, and now trades at $90, and you expect it to trade down to $70.

If you sell now: you gain $9000, and then you put that $9000 to work when the stock price falls to $70, then you get 128 shares.

So you've gained 28 shares for the same absolute $$$.

The problem with all this is that you don't know if it's definitely going down.

However, if you're certain markets go down further, you should absolutely sell. You seem to be certain it goes down further but are concerned about 'permanently wiping out' your previous gains.... which does not make sense.

 

[waffledave]

So, one thing I've noticed is that as more and more nations get this virus and report their numbers, it seems like the death rate is between 4-6%, which further suggests that China and Iran weren't accurately reporting their numbers.

I think we will see wildly different rates from country to country.

There are many factors, but the 2 that stand out to me:

1) Testing. The more you test, the lower the mortality rate will be. If you think about it, this makes a lot of sense. If you are only testing people who meet specific criteria, or are sick enough to be in hospital, then your numbers will be skewed.

2) Prevention, and the ability of healthcare systems to avoid being overrun. This is a big one. In Italy the death rates are really horrible because they just cannot handle the number of sick people. Basically at this point in Italy anyone showing up to the hospital over 65 will not get a respirator, which means they are effectively dead if they need intensive care.

 

[dinodebino]

Approval ratings generally go up during a crisis.

Not sure of that one. Need proof. Because it hasn't been the case in Ottawa, Queen's Park and BC.

 

[Mike8]

'Merica. Where money matters more than your life

If the economy breaks down entirely, healthcare is impacted as well. I know you didn't mean this that seriously, but it's important to recognize that a balance has to be reached pretty urgently right now.

 

[Mike8]

So, one thing I've noticed is that as more and more nations get this virus and report their numbers, it seems like the death rate is between 4-6%, which further suggests that China and Iran weren't accurately reporting their numbers.

Two things.

1. Don't confuse testing with infected rate. The two are widely different.

2. Countries that proactively test -- as S Korea, China, et al. have done -- will have far lower fatality rates. China's #s are not inconsistent with many other nations that proactively tested. Some reports indicate that as many as 1/3rd of Chinese population that tested positive were asymptomatic--indicating very early testing being done.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Not sure of that one. Need proof. Because it hasn't been the case in Ottawa, Queen's Park and BC.

Rally 'round the flag effect - Wikipedia

 

[DangerDave]

Sorry, but this doesn't quite make sense. If you're certain that the market is going down sooner, then you're better off selling now and buying after it falls. The previous gains are irrelevant here. Look at the math: if you have 100 shares of a stock that traded at $150 a month ago, and now trades at $90, and you expect it to trade down to $70.

If you sell now: you gain $9000, and then you put that $9000 to work when the stock price falls to $70, then you get 128 shares.

So you've gained 28 shares for the same absolute $$$.

The problem with all this is that you don't know if it's definitely going down.

However, if you're certain markets go down further, you should absolutely sell. You seem to be certain it goes down further but are concerned about 'permanently wiping out' your previous gains.... which does not make sense.

While I think the market will continue to drop, it's way too risky right now. Nobody knows for sure as the market is too volatile right now.

 

[Mike8]

While I think the market will continue to drop, it's way too risky right now. Nobody knows for sure as the market is too volatile right now.

? This is what I've been saying.

 

[llamateizer]

So, one thing I've noticed is that as more and more nations get this virus and report their numbers, it seems like the death rate is between 4-6%, which further suggests that China and Iran weren't accurately reporting their numbers.

Iran is at 7.9%

 

[Andy]

Just for my own sake, it seems like several posters here are well-versed in biology/medicine, but which of you are actually trained/working in the field?

 

[Forum93]

Sorry, but this doesn't quite make sense. If you're certain that the market is going down sooner, then you're better off selling now and buying after it falls. The previous gains are irrelevant here. Look at the math: if you have 100 shares of a stock that traded at $150 a month ago, and now trades at $90, and you expect it to trade down to $70.

If you sell now: you gain $9000, and then you put that $9000 to work when the stock price falls to $70, then you get 128 shares.

So you've gained 28 shares for the same absolute $$$.

The problem with all this is that you don't know if it's definitely going down.

However, if you're certain markets go down further, you should absolutely sell. You seem to be certain it goes down further but are concerned about 'permanently wiping out' your previous gains.... which does not make sense.

Thanks for the advice, now I don't know what to do. There is another twist in this where the broker told me I would lose all the dividends it's presently giving, which is quite a bit.

 

[Mike8]

Thanks for the advice, now I don't know what to do. There is another twist in this where the broker told me I would lose all the dividends it's presently giving, which is quite a bit.

Well, I wouldn't listen to anyone on this forum (including me!) to make any judgments.

I can say that I agree with those who broadly state to not do anything right now. As I said before, there are far too many factors that are entirely unknown right now -- it's too tough a call to do anything re buying or selling.

And, for clarity, you would lose any dividends already declared if they have gone ex-dividend. You wouldn't lose any existing dividends that you have received.

 

[Habaneros]

lets keep an eye on this....

Back to work in Wuhan, coronavirus epicentre, as restrictions eased

 

[Forum93]

Well, I wouldn't listen to anyone on this forum (including me!) to make any judgments.

I can say that I agree with those who broadly state to not do anything right now. As I said before, there are far too many factors that are entirely unknown right now -- it's too tough a call to do anything re buying or selling.

And, for clarity, you would lose any dividends already declared if they have gone ex-dividend. You wouldn't lose any existing dividends that you have received.

I wouldn't act on advice received on the internet, just gauging differing opinions, thanks for your input!

 

[Deebs]

I don't disagree. I think a limitation on congregations of people, non-essential business etc. is warranted. But the stuff that's going on in Spain, for instance, is just absurd and draconian. The willingness that some people have to accept it is frightening.

It's absolutely mindblowing how stupid people can be.

When I see our fellow Canadians acting in the same way, it makes me so disappointed. We had a bit of room to see how it affected other countries before it got over here and we should've learned from it. Lots did, many didn't and when I see massive gatherings in Vancouver for example, I'm so disappointed in people.

Canada needs to lock it the F down.

 

[waffledave]

Sorry, but this doesn't quite make sense. If you're certain that the market is going down sooner, then you're better off selling now and buying after it falls. The previous gains are irrelevant here. Look at the math: if you have 100 shares of a stock that traded at $150 a month ago, and now trades at $90, and you expect it to trade down to $70.

If you sell now: you gain $9000, and then you put that $9000 to work when the stock price falls to $70, then you get 128 shares.

So you've gained 28 shares for the same absolute $$$.

The problem with all this is that you don't know if it's definitely going down.

However, if you're certain markets go down further, you should absolutely sell. You seem to be certain it goes down further but are concerned about 'permanently wiping out' your previous gains.... which does not make sense.

I day trade regularly, it is VERY difficult to time or understand the market right now. It responds in really strange ways.

 

[Andy]