Prospect Info: 2019 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #11

[Schenn]

I will make a thread everyday until we have determined the top 30 prospects according to Leaf fans on HFBoards for I think my 10th straight year. The criteria for a prospect will be loosely based on Calder eligibility. There may be a couple that slip through the cracks the first few posts because I am not perfect. Also please let me know if I have someone listed that is no longer with us, or any omissions. Comprehensive prospect lists are a little harder to find than you'd think this time of year.

Rankings:

1. Rasmus Sandin -- 68.3%
2. Timothy Liljegren -- 87.4%
3. Jeremy Bracco -- 60.7%
4. Nicholas Robertson -- 40.5%
5. Trevor Moore -- 32.9%
6. Ilya Mikheyev -- 24%
7. Joseph Woll -- 32.8%
8. Ian Scott -- 47.9%
9. Mikko Kokkonen -- 39.5%
10. Yegor Korshkov -- 29.8%
11.

______________
On The Docket:

Mac Hollowell
Jesper Lindgren
Dmytro Timashov
Mikhail Abramov
Adam Brooks
Riley Stotts
Filip Kral
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
Eemeli Rasanen
Pierre Engvall
Teemu Kivihalme
Justin Brazeau
Pontus Holmberg
Joe Duszak
Mason Marchment

____________
Next on the List:

Dakota Joshua
Martins Dzierkals
Kasimir Kaskisuo
JD Greenway
Nikolai Chebykin
Vladimir Bobylev
Vladislav Kara
Ryan O'Connell
Zach Bouthillier
Semyon Kizimov
Miro Aaltonen
Aaron Luchuk
Nick Abruzzese
Michael Koster
Calle Loponen

______________
Past Results:

Prospect Ranking #1
Prospect Ranking #2
Prospect Ranking #3
Prospect Ranking #4
Prospect Ranking #5
Prospect Ranking #6
Prospect Ranking #7
Prospect Ranking #8
Prospect Ranking #9
Prospect Ranking #10


Suggest who I should add next.

Click to read more...

 

[MyBudJT]

Brazzers!!!

Got voted by OHL GMs as the more impressive overage player over Hollowell!

 

[Cor]

Jesper Lindgren

Add Mike Koster

Remove Justin Brazeau

 

[MyBudJT]

Remove Justin Brazeau

How come...? You don't think he's in the top 25?

Its already been established he's being considered a prospect for these polls...

 

[4thline]

IMO - SDA/Brooks/Hollowell/Korshkov/Lindgren/

Stotts/Abramov/Kivihalme/Rasanen/Holmberg/Engvall

Are the next two groupings. razor thin margins, but in general i think these are the guys that stand the best chance of being every day top 9/top 6 guys for multiple seasons rather than depth tweener fodder

 

[Morgs]

10. SDA
11. Lindgren
13. Hollowell
14. Kivihalme
15. Engvall

 

[Advanced stats]

Holowell and it's not close at this point.

-77 points as a defenseman in the OHL last year, lead all Defensemen, players like Bouchard, Boquist, Wilde.
-in addition to being a great offensive playmaker, he's incredibly smart on the back end and very active in his own zone.
- jumped right into the AHL playoffs, and played very well in 9 games.

 

[Mitch nylander]

Remove Brazeau and add Kara and Koster.

 

[Mitch nylander]

How come...? You don't think he's in the top 25?

Its already been established he's being considered a prospect for these polls...

Watching him play in North Bay, personally has me think he doesn't have the potential. Most people are saying he's a great player by only stat watching and less so watching him. His skating isn't very good, he is not overly skilled and he mostly produced because he was so much bigger, older and stronger then everyone else. It's basically a man playing with boys.

I don't see him translating at the next level. I do not know what I am missing on but I do not see it. At best he may become a Freddy Gauthier type.

I am with @Cor on this one.

 

[MyBudJT]

Watching him play in North Bay, personally has me think he doesn't have the potential. Most people are saying he's a great player by only stat watching and less so watching him. His skating isn't very good, and he mostly produced because he was so much bigger, older and stronger then everyone else. I don't see him translating at the next level. I do not know what I am missing on but I do not see it. At best he may become a Freddy Gauthier type.

Considering Brazeau scored more goals this season than Gauthier has scored in his entire junior career, I find the Gauthier comparison rather odd. Gauthier also never scored a P/GP at junior...

Can you elaborate on their similarities a bit more?

All the recent scouting reports I've read have indicated skating isn't as big an issue as it used to be, and that he's improved in that department...

 

[Eye Test]

Engval/LIndgren again for me

 

[Mitch nylander]

Considering Brazeau scored more goals this season than Gauthier has scored in his entire junior career, I find the Gauthier comparison rather odd. Gauthier also never scored a P/GP at junior...

Can you elaborate on their similarities a bit more?

All the recent scouting reports I've read have indicated skating isn't as big an issue as it used to be, and that he's improved in that department...

Seriously though I got to see him often in Sudbury. Again, he is not that skilled. I may be missing something you may think you have seen but I don't think it. He has a good shot and he's huge. He's strong. His scoring will not translate to the next level as you may think. I think he will have to adapt to a more so defensive physical game.

We see similar cases like this all of the time.
Also Gauthier, never played his overage year. We do not know how he would have produced with an extra year. They are both big guys who are physically developed who are not strong skaters. They are both hard working guys. Brazeau was a thirteenth round pick and he made it into the O and Freddy Gauthier got cut from his Q team initially. Both pushed themselves to make the major junior jump.

Honestly, if there is something you've seen while watching him I'd like to know so I can further view what he can bring to the table.
Anyhow, I respect your opinion but this is what I think.

 

[Logic]

Holowell then Lindgren for me

 

[ITM]

Sorry, but just have to throw something out there...

I like new shiny toys as much as the next person, but, Nic Robertson at #4 and Ian Scott at #8 reads like an indictment against our fanbase's database. Ian Scott was named WHL goalie of the year and the WHL playoffs mvp.

Is there anyway we can just do a little flip-a-roonie and make things right?

Ian Scott...at #8...Boys, come on.

 

[Cor]

Watching him play in North Bay, personally has me think he doesn't have the potential. Most people are saying he's a great player by only stat watching and less so watching him. His skating isn't very good, he is not overly skilled and he mostly produced because he was so much bigger, older and stronger then everyone else. It's basically a man playing with boys.

I don't see him translating at the next level. I do not know what I am missing on but I do not see it. At best he may become a Freddy Gauthier type.

I am with @Cor on this one.

My “remove Brazeau” has 0 to do with his skill, abilities or skating.

I think there’s some potential there if he’s able to work with Barb and improve his skating to the extent Gauthier did.


However, he’s not our prospect lol. He’s not on our reserve list. He’s no more our prospect than Brady Ferguson, or Hudson Elynuik

(And honestly, Elynuik has just as much potential to become an NHL’er. Only real difference is Elynuik played at the ECHL/AHL last season, while Brazeau played in the OHL. There are only 4 months separating them)

And given Elynuik’s skating, skill and general awareness at both ends, I’d probably vote him above Brazeau if given the option.

We either need to consider all AHL contracted players, say under 23 to be prospects, or consider none of them to be.

You need to have consistency, or it generates bias

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Sorry, but just have to throw something out there...

I like new shiny toys as much as the next person, but, Nic Robertson at #4 and Ian Scott at #8 reads like an indictment against our fanbase's database. Ian Scott was named WHL goalie of the year and the WHL playoffs mvp.

Is there anyway we can just do a little flip-a-roonie and make things right?

Ian Scott...at #8...Boys, come on.

Goalies are kind of voodoo. That's why. Both have similar upside (in their own relative terms as wingers and goalies), but Robertson is more likely to hit his and even if he doesn't, he has the type of skill to still be a very productive bottom 6 type player. Scott would need to become either the best backup in the NHL or a legit starter to really top that upside, because backups (even good ones) are not usually that expensive or hard to find.

 

[Cor]

Sorry, but just have to throw something out there...

I like new shiny toys as much as the next person, but, Nic Robertson at #4 and Ian Scott at #8 reads like an indictment against our fanbase's database. Ian Scott was named WHL goalie of the year and the WHL playoffs mvp.

Is there anyway we can just do a little flip-a-roonie and make things right?

Ian Scott...at #8...Boys, come on.

They are on the same tier.

Tier 1- Sandin?
Tier 2 - Liljegren, Sandin?, Bracco
Tier 3 - pretty much everyone from 4-10 so far

 

[Morgs]

Holowell and it's not close at this point.

-77 points as a defenseman in the OHL last year, lead all Defensemen, players like Bouchard, Boquist, Wilde.
-in addition to being a great offensive playmaker, he's incredibly smart on the back end and very active in his own zone.
- jumped right into the AHL playoffs, and played very well in 9 games.

Argument for Lindgren then (even though I voted for SDA):

Tied for 23rd in defenseman points in arguably a top-5 league in the world. Only Leskinen (Montreal signed UDFA), Reunanen (Rangers 4th, 2016), Laaksonen (Buffalo 3rd, 2017) had more points while being the same age or younger. This was also done as not the #1 PP defenseman.

3rd in the entire league for CF% with defenseman that played 10 or more games. The two guys ahead both much older. Very average zone starts, with the 3rd most minutes on his team - meaning in no way sheltered.

The guy is coming away from Liiga as one of the best U-25 players overall, let alone the fact he's only 22 until next May.

 

[Morgs]

Sorry, but just have to throw something out there...

I like new shiny toys as much as the next person, but, Nic Robertson at #4 and Ian Scott at #8 reads like an indictment against our fanbase's database. Ian Scott was named WHL goalie of the year and the WHL playoffs mvp.

Is there anyway we can just do a little flip-a-roonie and make things right?

Ian Scott...at #8...Boys, come on.

I wholeheartedly disagree. Here are the last 20 CHL goalies of the year:

Of those guys, here is how they worked out as of today:

Star Tier (or potential star) :
Price, Hart

Starter:
Jake Allen? Andrew Raycroft? Ray Emery?

So really 3 of the last 19 seasons (Hart winning twice) has produced a good starter or better. Some of the rest have been starters at a point? Mostly backups or never made it.

Having a fantastic season in the CHL is fantastic, no way around that. Means absolutely nothing though until they do something in pro. I believe we have Scott too high (I had him 9th lol), but even then I normally don't believe goalies are much until they've proved themselves at the pro level (AHL, SHL, KHL, etc), and even then it's a completely different game, and the biggest adjustment positionally at the NHL.

 

[ITM]

Goalies are kind of voodoo. That's why. Both have similar upside (in their own relative terms as wingers and goalies), but Robertson is more likely to hit his and even if he doesn't, he has the type of skill to still be a very productive bottom 6 type player. Scott would need to become either the best backup in the NHL or a legit starter to really top that upside, because backups (even good ones) are not usually that expensive or hard to find.

I don't see the rationale in that comparison at all. In order for Scott to be regarded as the better prospect than Robertson now, he has to become the best backup in the NHL or a legit starter based on "goalies are voodoo"? In every respect except for NHL draft position, Ian Scott has an ongoing pedigree that if a forward was similarly decorated, he'd be the number 4 prospect. I think making goalies the exception - at the prospect level in a vote about prospects - smacks a little of confirmation bias relative to the (apparent) maxim that "goalies are voodoo." and therefore entirely unpredictable rather than harder, which shouldn't equate to less value past first round selections.

A list of WHL goalie of the year recipients and WHL playoffs mvp recipients has me very optimistic that Ian Scott in the 4th round was a very, very fruitful selection. I'd have to project generalized norms onto Robertson and ignore Scott's specific accomplishments in order to justify the inversion. Seems it requires more faith in Scott's future failure rather than his present success and in Robertson's future success rather than his present (modest?) success to bridge the divide.

That said, I've been wrong as wrong can be before, so perhaps it's the case now. Me likey Ian Scott though.

 

[ITM]

I wholeheartedly disagree. Here are the last 20 CHL goalies of the year:
View attachment 244171

Of those guys, here is how they worked out as of today:

Star Tier (or potential star) :
Price, Hart

Starter:
Jake Allen? Andrew Raycroft? Ray Emery?

So really 3 of the last 19 seasons (Hart winning twice) has produced a good starter or better. Some of the rest have been starters at a point? Mostly backups or never made it.

Having a fantastic season in the CHL is fantastic, no way around that. Means absolutely nothing though until they do something in pro. I believe we have Scott too high (I had him 9th lol), but even then I normally don't believe goalies are much until they've proved themselves at the pro level (AHL, SHL, KHL, etc), and even then it's a completely different game, and the biggest adjustment positionally at the NHL.

Fair enough...Now publish the WHL playoffs mvps to the same effect.

And then it might be instructive to compare goalies who were both goalie of the year and whl playoffs mvps...right? As a balanced exercise?

Edited: To the point, looks like the last to do it was Martin Jones. Would that be correct?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Holowell and it's not close at this point.

-77 points as a defenseman in the OHL last year, lead all Defensemen, players like Bouchard, Boquist, Wilde.
-in addition to being a great offensive playmaker, he's incredibly smart on the back end and very active in his own zone.
- jumped right into the AHL playoffs, and played very well in 9 games.

The main knock against Hollowell is that he was an OA playing in the OHL last year. Now he was a September birthday, so he's not significantly older than a 99' playing in that league, but that does still have an impact. He's a 1-1.5 years older than those top prospects.

Hollowell is good but I'm more impressed with Lindgren TBH. Lindgren is a year and a half older, but he's played in decent quality pro leagues (Liiga and Allsvenskan) as a prominently used defenseman for three years now . There are times when he had the most ice time and was relied upon against the top competition in those leagues, and Liiga has former decent NHLers in their league. Plus his team even won this past year. I was also more impressed with Lindgren when he played in the AHL (although brief since he was in Finland for most of the time) than the times I saw Hollowell.

 

[MyBudJT]

Seriously though I got to see him often in Sudbury. Again, he is not that skilled. I may be missing something you may think you have seen but I don't think it. He has a good shot and he's huge. He's strong. His scoring will not translate to the next level as you may think. I think he will have to adapt to a more so defensive physical game.

We see similar cases like this all of the time.
Also Gauthier, never played his overage year. We do not know how he would have produced with an extra year. They are both big guys who are physically developed who are not strong skaters. They are both hard working guys. Brazeau was a thirteenth round pick and he made it into the O and Freddy Gauthier got cut from his Q team initially. Both pushed themselves to make the major junior jump.

Honestly, if there is something you've seen while watching him I'd like to know so I can further view what he can bring to the table.
Anyhow, I respect your opinion but this is what I think.

See him often in Sudbury? North Bay only play in Sudbury four times a season...

I'm not going to pretend that I've seen Brazeau play a lot, but I like what I've heard from a lot of the scouting reports. I also think the most intriguing thing about Brazeau is that he didn't grow up in any high level hockey programs. He hasn't had a lot of the training a lot of NHL prospects got in the teens, so I really do think our development staff can do wonders on him.

Brazeau had a better overage season than Hollowell (who is about to be voted as our 11th best prospect), and the only difference between the two (calliber wise) is the one was drafted and signed to an ELC, and the other signed an AHL deal.

Brett Leason just got drafted in the 2nd round in his U20 season, and he had a lot more support around him. Brazeau's season was arguably more impressive than Leason's....

The exciting thing with Brazeau is that he IS going to get stronger. He IS going to get quicker. He already has a good offensive skillset to work with, my only concern is that when he gets quicker, will his mind keep up with his speed? Can he keep up with the quicker tempo?

If he can, then he has 30G NHL potential IMO.

 

[Morgs]

Fair enough...Now publish the WHL playoffs mvps to the same effect.

And then it might be instructive to compare goalies who were both goalie of the year and whl playoffs mvps...right? As a balanced exercise?

Edited: To the point, looks like the last to do it was Martin Jones. Would that be correct?

Martin Jones didn't win CHL goalie of the year though, so it could be argued Scott had a more impressive season than any of the rest of them that won the award (CHL goalie of the year).

I don't want to bring down Scott as I think he had a fantastic season. I just think a) goalie stats in the CHL don't most of the time mean success at the pro level, b) goalie awards in junior mean very little, and c) he's got to show this is a consistent thing going forward.

Would love to see him (and Woll) pick up where he left off last season and just absolutely kill the AHL/ECHL and then I'd understand having him around #4.

 

[Olden]

Brazzers!!!

Got voted by OHL GMs AAV the more impressive overage player over Hollowell!

BRAZEAU!!! Had 61 goals on the horrible team. Unlike Mac from ssm was surounded by talent. Go look at some highlights of Brazeau report back dare you.