Speculation: 2019 free agency

[rhef3]

Craig Custance: “Detroit setting up to have lots of cap space for 2019 free agency. Vanek, Howard, Nyquist, Kronwall all come off the books, close to $18 million. Zetterberg up in the air. Obvious target for them would be Karlsson.”

With that said, outside of Karlsson, who else would be prime targets ?

Looks like we will have some room to go big fish shopping.

Click to read more...

 

[Heaton]

What are the realistic chances that Karlsson makes it to free agency if he is traded this offseason?

 

[Henkka]

What are the realistic chances that Karlsson makes it to free agency if he is traded this offseason?

If Zetterberg is done, and somehow LTIRed, we are on the Karlsson race at this summer.

Sending out Nyquist+Kronwall+Athanasiou package + picks and prospects + Franzen contract, we'll have the capspace for both Ryan and Karlsson.

 

[jkutswings]

I'll be surprised if Karlsson starts the season in Ottawa, let alone makes it to 2019 free agency.

As for the rest, a lot can happen in a year, so who knows what players emerge and what needs are top priority. Here's a good site that you can sort by position:

2019 NHL Free Agents Tracker

Just off the top of my head, the names that jump out at me are:

Tyler Myers
Ryan Ellis
Nate Schmidt
Tyler Seguin
Anders Lee

But I have a whole lot of pessimism when it comes to this team and wading into free agency.

 

[Heaton]

If Zetterberg is done, and somehow LTIRed, we are on the Karlsson race at this summer.

Sending out Nyquist+Kronwall+Athanasiou package + picks and prospects + Franzen contract, we'll have the capspace for both Ryan and Karlsson.

My point was that I don't see him making it to free agency, he'll sign for 8 years then get traded.

 

[Henkka]

Season 2018-19:

1. Ryan - 7.25M
2. Larkin - 6.3M (estimate)
3. Nielsen - 5.25M
4. Mantha - 4.5M (estimate)
5. Abdelkader - 4.25M
6. Helm - 3.85M
7. Vanek - 3.0M
8. Glendening - 1.8M
9. Bertuzzi - 1.4M
10. Zadina - 925k
11. Rasmussen - 894k
12. Svechnikov - 863k
------------
13. Frk - 1.05M
14. Witkowski - 750k

Zetterberg - LTIR - 6.081M
Weiss Buyout - 1.667M
Ouellet buyout - 167k
Larkin+Bertuzzi - Bonus overages - 755k

1. Karlsson - 6.5M
2. Green - 5.375M
3. DeKeyser - 5.0M
4. Ericsson - 4.25M
5. Daley - 3.167M
6. Jensen - 813k
----------
7. Hicketts - 635k

1. Howard - 5.292M
2. Bernier - 3.0M

TOTAL CAPHITS
85.190 M

Cap Space
-5.690 M

Maximum Cap Space through Zetterberg LTIR
0.4103 M


Vanek - Larkin - Mantha
Ryan - Rasmussen - Zadina
Abdelkader - Nielsen - Svechnikov
Helm - Glendning - Bertuzzi
(Frk, Witkowski)

DeKeyser - Karlsson
Ericsson - Green
Daley - Jensen
(Hicketts)

Howard
Bernier

 

[Henkka]

My point was that I don't see him making it to free agency, he'll sign for 8 years then get traded.

Yep. He can sign for 8 years, 12.0M and be traded to Detroit with Bobby Ryan, and we can live with those caphits if certain caphits go on another direction. Both possible at this season, or at next season.

Karlsson 6.5M + 3 years of 12.0M + Ryan 7.25M of next 4 years would cost:
Total of 71.5M in next 4 years for Ottawa

Package of Nyquist+Kronwall+Franzen+Athanasiou+McIsaac/Cholowski/Hronek + picks would cost on next 4 years:
Nyquist 4.75M for 1 year (Ott can trade him for picks at deadline)
Athanasiou 2.5M for 4 years (young forward replacement for Ryan)
Kronwall 1.75M for 1 year (defenceman replacement for Karlsson)
Franzen 1.0M for 2 years (extra caphit to save money and reach the cap floor)
McIsaac/Cholowski/Hronek for 900k ELC for 3 years (defenceman prospect to replace retiring Kronwall)
Total of: 21.2M

Melniyuk will want to save money and this trade would save him 50M dollars during next 4 years.

 

[Heaton]

Yep. He can sign for 8 years, 12.0M and be traded for us with Ryan, and we can live with those caphits. Both possible at this season, or at next season.

You think we're trading for Erik Karlsson this offseason? You're going to be disappointed.

 

[Henkka]

You think we're trading for Erik Karlsson this offseason? You're going to be disappointed.

I'm speculating.

I showed how it's technically possible.

I'm not expecting that to happen.

 

[Henkka]

AT summer of 2019:

- Howard leaves, replaced by Säteri 1.2M - 4.0M savings.
- Vanek leaves, replaced by Veleno - 2.0M savings.

Opens 6 million for Karlsson raise 6.5M --> 12.0M

- Nick Jensen is only player needing a salary raise on that summer. Or he could possibly let walk.

 

[jkutswings]

Even if the budget is there, Karlsson isn't coming here. The odds of landing Jack Hughes are miniscule, but I'd sooner bet on that than an elite free agent defenseman coming to a franchise that doesn't have the pieces to excite him to come here.

 

[kliq]

Even if the budget is there, Karlsson isn't coming here. The odds of landing Jack Hughes are miniscule, but I'd sooner bet on that than an elite free agent defenseman coming to a franchise that doesn't have the pieces to excite him to come here.

The reality is that none of us know a thing about where Karlsson will or will not go. We can all pretend, the optimists can act like its happening, and the pessimists can act like there is no chance, but we're all just guessing. The thing against us is that we are not a great team, the thing for us is that Karlsson is pretty good buddies with a lot of our players. All we can do is see how this plays out.

 

[Bench]

When this roster was Sweden 2.0, I would have felt pretty good going into free agency. But as the original quote says, literally all of Kronwall, Nyquist, and Zetterberg could be gone. There goes our ace in the hole. So basically our one area of enticement is that the Wings will offer an absolutely bonkers $$$ contract with a no-movement clause. And hey, that's a good start.

Honestly I think the biggest issue is that another team will trade for Karlsson and spend months courting him with a new deal. If he actually makes it to free agency, and his primary goal isn't joining an immediate contender, I think you could reasonably consider the Wings a strong option considering what a competitive contract they'll put on the table.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'll be surprised if Karlsson starts the season in Ottawa, let alone makes it to 2019 free agency.

Given how terrible Ottawa has handled things, I can totally see them fumbling the Karlsson situation and either lose him for nothing or at the 19 TDL for a poor return.

 

[NickH8]

I think we should at least try for Karlsson, considering we'll have the cap space. We get a #1 center in the draft (most of the players in the top 15 are centers) and get Karlsson and our rebuild is almost over, we just have to wait for the prospects to develop. If we want Karlsson we don't want to see a trade. He would likely extend with his new team.

 

[rhef3]

Just out of curiosity who would be the next best defenseman ?

You got to figure he will be in the mix as well.

 

[rhef3]

Stralman and Ellis would be my guess.

Doubt we would be interested in blowmeester, coburn or edler.

 

[TatarTangle]

I think we should at least try for Karlsson, considering we'll have the cap space. We get a #1 center in the draft (most of the players in the top 15 are centers) and get Karlsson and our rebuild is almost over, we just have to wait for the prospects to develop. If we want Karlsson we don't want to see a trade. He would likely extend with his new team.

Larkin and Zadina are the only talent on the team with no goalie in sight, I wouldn't say, even with the dream of Karlsson, that the rebuild would almost be over. Just IMHO.

 

[njx9]

Lol, Karlsson. Yeah, I'm sure he'll take our calls. Just like Stamkos.

Not sure the team should be looking at adding a defensemen next year, honestly, unless both E and Kronwall leave together, and even then, it should be a cheap, 3rd pairing guy. I think they'll have to decide, this year, if Ras is a C or a W, and then decide how to address whichever position he's not playing (assuming we don't win Hughes, and assuming Z retires).

 

[NickH8]

Larkin and Zadina are the only talent on the team with no goalie in sight, I wouldn't say, even with the dream of Karlsson, that the rebuild would almost be over. Just IMHO.

We would likely add an elite center prospect in the draft, so that's 3 core forwards + your elite defenseman in Karlsson. Veleno, Rasmussen, Mantha, Bertuzzi, and Berggren give us a good supporting cast on forward. Cholowski and Hronek will be challenging for roster spots. We'd be done collecting the pieces, we'd just have to wait for them to develop.

 

[NickH8]

Lol, Karlsson. Yeah, I'm sure he'll take our calls. Just like Stamkos.

Not sure the team should be looking at adding a defensemen next year, honestly, unless both E and Kronwall leave together, and even then, it should be a cheap, 3rd pairing guy. I think they'll have to decide, this year, if Ras is a C or a W, and then decide how to address whichever position he's not playing (assuming we don't win Hughes, and assuming Z retires).

You never know. If he doesn't return our calls fine, move on. There's no sense in ignoring the fact that he's available and not taking a shot at him.

 

[ricky0034]

You never know. If he doesn't return our calls fine, move on. There's no sense in ignoring the fact that he's available and not taking a shot at him.

i'd probably put the odds of him even making it to free agency to begin with at under 10 percent anyways

 

[njx9]

You never know. If he doesn't return our calls fine, move on. There's no sense in ignoring the fact that he's available and not taking a shot at him.

Never suggested we shouldn't, and said the same for Tavares. You have to at least try when someone that good is available for free.

But there's no earthly reason he'd come here over any of the other teams that would be courting him. And once we miss, I don't think there's any reason to sign some other D, instead.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I really thought we had a chance with EK in free agency next year

BUT... Given that the Sens have granted teams interested in EK now the chance to talk contract with them, he will be dealt and signed to a career deal likely very soon

We're not one of the teams reported to be talking with his agent(Tampa, Washington, Vegas, San Jose and the NYR) and therefore are completely out of the running

Unless you hear the KH is talking with EKs agent today or this week, NO chance we ever see him in a winged wheel

 

[Henkka]

It's funny how Karlsson's 11M caphit is a problem in almost every contender. He can't go to the best team, he has to pick some secondary level promising team which could be on the rise after 1-2 years.

I see Red Wings being on that group.