Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by MarkovsKnee, Oct 10, 2018.
It's already done in my book.
I agree 100% on Krebs, and somewhat in regards to Lavoie and Byram- but I think Broberg's problems are overblown. He has some bad brainfarts that certainly make me facepalm at times, but his tools are exceptional and he's competing against men and doing fairly well as a young defenseman.
I think most of this year's best defensemen are playing overseas in Broberg, Soderstrom, Kokkonen, Heinola, Seider. All in all, my defense ranking right now is:
Haven't been able to catch Harley, Brinkman, Kolyachonok and a few others
Not sure who had Krebs so high, hot-wind.
I don't want to draft a D in the first round.
I've been saying the same thing for quite some time now, the early first round is for forwards, unless you get a stab at a guy like Boqvist, Hughes or Smith, theres almost 100% going to be a forward worth more than the D in the early first round. Defenders should be picked in the 25+ range.
Surely looks like there could be a lot more value in picking a guy like Soderstrom/ Kokkonen or Thomson in the 2nd round than picking Broberg in the top 15.
Plus Broberg has a lot of Beaulieu in him it seems, and I've been fooled once, won't happen again.
I think Broberg's offensive IQ blows Beaulieu's out of the water. Nate benefited a lot from his Sea Dogs squad like Zack Phillips which was absolutely loaded and it made him look better than he was.
I also don't expect any of those three to be there in the second round, mmaaayyyybbeee Thomson.
Personally, I understand having a slight positional bias but all in all, I'll pick the best prospect available. Each prospect is an individual, so it's tough to just say "I don't want to draft a D in the first round" and group all defensemen together like that. Personally, I would gladly consider Broberg or Robertson in the top 15 this year- I prefer most forwards to most defensemen this year but if Broberg is sitting there at, say, pick 13 I would be all over that.
Someone will have to make it in the 2nd round, theres just too many players, were bound to have fallers.
I agree though, and thats not what I meant, Robertson, and even Broberg (and Byram) would be great pick ups in the teens. It's also not exactly about drafting BPA, but maximizing the value you get out of every pick.
Take a peek at 2017, for instance, you have guys like Makar, Foote, Brannstrom, Valimaki, Liljegren and Vaakanainen going in the teens. Good picks ? Yeah, to be honest theyre all pretty good players.
Now compare them to the forwards picked near them: Suzuki, Chytil, Thomas, Vesalainen, Necas, etc, and the defenders picked passed the +/-25th pick Jokiharju, Hague, Brook, Timmins, Mitchell, etc, and the forwards picked around that 25+ range, Tolvanen, Poehling, Bowers, Kostin, JAD.... I know which two groups I want to be picking from.
How good would TB look with Chytil/Brook instead of Foote and Lipanov ?
How good would Boston look with Thomas/Mitchell instead of Vaakanainen and Studnicka ?
Obviously, thats not true for all years. 2018, 2016 werent like that at all, but 2017 and 2019 look that way, the forwards are just too good to pass up.
The only thing that worries me about Broberg is that he relies on his skating way too much and doesn't make simple plays. I'd need to see him play a bit more but his passes haven't really impressed me, he kinda reminds me of Tinordi (obviously their styles are way diff) in the sense that he relies on his skating to make a routine play instead of making a simple pass (instead of passing the puck to a forward Tinordi would skate to center ice just to dump it and make a change).
That said, if he has to ability to make simple plays (i.e: efficient passes, good decision making) and his hockey IQ is there then his skating becomes a huge strength. If he uses his skating to compensate for other weaknesses and starts relying on it too much then that could become a big issue (basically becomes a crutch).
Yeah I suppse you're right in a sense, I just don't think that's the best way to approach it. You mention Makar who was taken at 4 yet conveniently ignore Heiskanen at 3, who could give Pettersson a run for his money a top the class. Not only that, but you ignore the Tippetts, Vilardi's, Norris's, Yamamoto's, etc.
I think we ought to ask ourselves, where do those Dmen slot in amongst the forwards taken, in hindsight?
Let's say, and I'm not trying to argue the order these forwards belong in, it goes like this:
Now the defensemen drafted within those same two rounds were:
Top 5: Heiskanen, Makar
Top 20: Foote, Brannstrom, Valimaki, Liljegren, Vaakanainen
Top 30: Joseph, Jokiharju
Top 45: Timmins, Hague, Lindstrom, Samberg, Westerlund
Top 62: Salo, Ferraro, Lauzon, Martin, Brook, Mitchell, Rasanen
Insert those guys and we get something like:
With goalies Oettinger and Luukkonen in there somewhere. Now I'm not pretending that this list is perfect- I put this together just now and I can't say I've been keeping tabs on Zachary Lauzon of Robin Salo over the years, so this is largely from stat-watching, but it seems as though, like forwards, the highly drafted defensemen remained amongst the elite.
Some of both the forwards and defensemen made big jumps for myself personally (Heponiemi, Tolvanen, Chytil, Frost / Jokiharju, Brook, Mitchell, Timmins, Hague). Most of the top 20 defensemen remained within my top 20 save for Vaakanainen and Valimaki by a hair.
Now anyways, here's my key point: After Hague at 34, how many high-end D prospects went in the second round? Brook and Mitchell are the only two, maybe with Rasanen having a case as well. That's 3/10, or 30%.
On the flip side, upfront, Ratcliffe, Heponiemi, Anderson-Dolan, Texier, Formenton, Comtois and Studnicka were all drafted after pick #34 and in my opinion all have a more than respectable shot at developing into top nine forwards. That's 7/17, or 41%.
Obviously this is not the most scientific evidence but I think it atleast shows that a defenseman picked high has almost if not as good a shot at becoming a "good pick" as a forward at the same spot.
Steve Kournianos had him #2.
D men traditionally take longer to develop then forwards, this is common knowledge, not sure why you’re using the 2017 draft to justify your position.
Look at Dumba, he was hot trash 2 years after he was drafted and yet he looks fine now. Fowler is another example.
Dumba wasn't hot trash 2 years after he was drafted, he was pretty much what everyone thought hed be.
Its not about development but just the quality of players.
2012 was a great year for Dmen, it was know before, and it looks that way, still.
2010 is a great example of what I'm saying, look at the difference in value between D's picked in the 2nd and in the top 25, then look at the forwards.
Tarasenko, Schwartz, Skinner, Niedereitter, Connoly, Granlund, to Kuznetsov (Anomaly), Zucker, Toffoli, Nelson, Coyle
Now look at the D's picked in that range
McIlrath, Fowler, Gormley, Forbort, Tinordi, Pysyk, to Petrovic, Faulk, Merill, Nemeth
You can see that the difference in value of forwards in the top 25, vs forwards in the 25+ range is much greater than the difference between the D in the top 25 and the Ds passed the top 25 range.
Even with the anomaly that is Kuzy (Russia and the NHL/KHL in 2010, etc.) you can see from which two groups youd like to pick, right ? The first forward group and the 2nd D group.
2011, was a terrible year for Ds, and this needs to be assessed before the draft. (2017, 2018, 2016 did not fit this.)
It's like that for most years, 2012 being an exception, because it was so strong on Dmen.
Fs: Lindholm, Monahan, Horvat, Nichuskin, Domi, Wennberg, Lazar, Rychel, Mantha, Gauthier, Poirier, Burakovsky
Fs 25+: Hartman, Lekhonen, Bertuzzi, Buchnevich, Guentzel
Ds : Nurse, Ristolainen, Morin, Morrissey, Pulock, Zadorov, Mueller
Ds 25+ Pesce, Theodore, Bowey, Hagg
Again, not an exciting group at all at 25+, and the -25s do look better, but the difference between the forwards and the Ds is actually god damn huge.
On average, look at every year and the group of D picked in the first round will be "close" to the group of forwards picked in the 2nd round or more, and yes, that is easily explained by D's developing slower, and thus, being harder to judge.
For most draft years less then 10 D men are taken in the first round, you’re not going to get the same number of star d men as forwards. I happen to value d men a lot higher then you, something if you have on your team things are most likely to click. There’s a rightness to a team with a solid d squad and something off with a team without them. Offense is exciting but d wins championships.
Also, ten years ago there was a premium for big d men that was the reason a lot of dud 1st round d men were taken, a lot of guys like Tinordi and McIllraith were considered to be 2nd round talents.
Dumba was hot trash after he was drafted, it took him a couple of years to figure it out. I was really disappointed in his play, if you think he was okay that is your opinion.
This is a cliché that does not represent reality.
07-08 and 06-07 are probably the only teams I can think of in the past decade (well, more actually.) that have won on the back of an elite defense.
You need a Dman that can log 30 minutes of spotless hockey and you need four lines that produce.
Washington's defense is very good
Chicago's defense both times were elite
LA's defense had 3 top pair defensemans
Beaulieu was trash when he played for team Canada at the U20's. That's when my hope for him diminished. He was just never a mature smart type player. He also looked good in Junior due to the stacked Saint John teams he played on.
Lets see how Broberg looks in this years's U20... as a 17 year old. Beaulieu was 19 when he first got a chance to play for team Canada.
We can't assume all players turn into Beaulieu but we do need to look at the Intangibles on how the player is trending and what he can do in different leagues/tournaments
My current rankings per position:
1. Jack Hughes
2. Kirby Dach
3. Dylan Cozens
4. Trevor Zegras
5. Ryan Suzuki
6. Alex Turcotte
7. Alex Newhook
1. Matthew Boldy
2. Peyton Krebs
3. Jakob Pelletier
4. Pavel Dorofeyev
5. Nolan Foote
1. Kaapo Kakko
2. Vasili Podkolzin
3. Cole Caufield
4. Arthur Kaliyev
5. Bobby Brink
1. Bowen Byram
2. Victor Soderstrom
3. Mikko Kokkonen
4. Cam York
5. Matthew Robertson
6. Alex Vlasic
7. Lassi Thomson
8. Thomas Harley
9. Philip Broberg
10. Moritz Seider
1. Spencer Knight
2. Hunter Jones
3. Taylor Gauthier
Nice rankings, why so low on Robertson ?
It's funny my 2 favourite defenseman are the lowest in your list: Broberg/Seider. (along Cam York who is my top ranked defenseman)
Anybody claiming that Broberg has low IQ probably have not watched him at all in sweden. He is incredibly reliable defensively and has the physicality to be impactful on both ice. We are not even close to Beaulieu or Sergachev in that regard. As far as comparable I would say Ekholm.
Id say hes a smart defensive player but he's limited offensively and in the NZ, mentally.
No Honka in your top 10?
Is he that bad this year?
Honka is pretty limited IQ wise Id say... Hes falling off a cliff.
Dropping a tier in your draft year is never a good sign I guess
Also, Cozens is catching up to Dach in terms of production. This will be a close one 'till the end, although I'd probably take Dach right now.
For those who follow the draft - how low could montreal realistically draft this year while still picking up an elite or blue chip prospect?
Depends on how many players you think are elite or have elite potential. I'd say 10th. But from 11-25 you could still nab a decent player. Just a tier or two below
He's been awful lately. Play hasn't been improving and leaving much to be desired.
Theres a few tiers.
Three cozens Dach Podz
Four (about ten players.)
Id say past the 15thish pick theres a real big dip in quality.
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