GDT: 2019 Draft Lottery - Ducks will pick 9th overall

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Hockey Duckie

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man this hurts. I have faith in madden but Im really hoping that the player we grab is good at offense cause we are starving for gamebreaking talent

Why does this year's pick need to be the Ducks offensive savior? I'm lost at this thought.

Here's who the Ducks hope will be on the ice come 2019 to provide offense: F Kase, F Terry, F Comtois, F Jones, and C Steel. They're also hoping that D Guhle can develop into an offensive weapon with his skating ability, but I really like Mahura's offensive instincts better. There's also a diamond in the rough with Kyle Olsen. The Ducks finished strong to 2018. Should they continue that way going into 2019, then the Ducks don't need a savior, but rather some maturation of their young forwards. Please remember that Troy Terry was a fifth round pick in 2015. It was long term planning on the Ducks' scouting staff and he's here to stay now. This is why the Ducks will pick BPA, not positional need. With BPA, you can actually trade those assets in the future for other needs such as D Vats for C Rico or D Pettersson for F Sprong. Also with BPA, you can net more assets such as D Montour for D Guhle and a first round pick or F Chase de Leo for a sixth round pick.

Since we aren't usually in a position to select first overall, the org must compile a large contingent of very good players so that the team has the capacity to play all 60 minutes - which GM Bob alluded to in his exit interviews.
 
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Disappointed EP40

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2017:
  1. Devils
  2. Metropolitan Rival (Philly)
  3. 6th place Central team (Dallas)
2019:
  1. Devils
  2. Metropolitan Rival (Rangers)
  3. 6th place Central team (Chicago)
Interesting stat. what are the chances of this happening?

Just NJ's wins is less than 1%. (.98)
 

Anaheim4ever

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Jun 15, 2017
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Krebs/Zegras is the best they can hope for. Won't be surprised if Bob picks Lavoie.
I predict this based on who moved into the top 3:
#3 Turcotte to Chicago, Turcotte/DeBrincat will be one hell of lightning fast duo.
#4 Cozens to Colorado, they get a pure goal scoring Center.
#5 LA takes Podkolzin, they are fine with him staying in Russia so they can Tank again, or he decides to go NHL cause of Kovalchuk.
#6 Detroit takes Byram - they need Dmen badly.
#7 Buffalo takes Dach.
#8 Edmonton takes Boldy
#9 Anaheim selects Krebs
#10 Vancouver selects Zegras
 

Sean Garrity

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Why does this year's pick need to be the Ducks offensive savior? I'm lost at this thought.

Here's who the Ducks hope will be on the ice come 2019 to provide offense: F Kase, F Terry, F Comtois, F Jones, and C Steel. They're also hoping that D Guhle can develop into an offensive weapon with his skating ability, but I really like Mahura's offensive instincts better. There's also a diamond in the rough with Kyle Olsen. The Ducks finished strong to 2018. Should they continue that way going into 2019, then the Ducks don't need a savior, but rather some maturation of their young forwards. Please remember that Troy Terry was a fifth round pick in 2015. It was long term planning on the Ducks' scouting staff and he's here to stay now. This is why the Ducks will pick BPA, not positional need. With BPA, you can actually trade those assets in the future for other needs such as D Vats for C Rico or D Pettersson for F Sprong. Also with BPA, you can net more assets such as D Montour for D Guhle and a first round pick or F Chase de Leo for a sixth round pick.

Since we aren't usually in a position to select first overall, the org must compile a large contingent of very good players so that the team has the capacity to play all 60 minutes - which GM Bob alluded to in his exit interviews.

I agree, and I think you're missing what should be an increase in offensive contribution from Rakell, a full season with some offensive talent should increase Silfv's offensive production, as well as hopefully full and healthy seasons from Getzlaf, Ritchie, and to a lesser extent Perry (should still be good for something like 20-20 if he gets PP time which he should). Sprong also can be a real wild card, I don't think it would surprise anyone if he scores 25-30 next year, or plays only 25-30 games because he's in the doghouse.

TL;DR, I trust Madden and would bet they draft the BPA on their board.
 

Boo Boo

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Why does this year's pick need to be the Ducks offensive savior? I'm lost at this thought.

Here's who the Ducks hope will be on the ice come 2019 to provide offense: F Kase, F Terry, F Comtois, F Jones, and C Steel. They're also hoping that D Guhle can develop into an offensive weapon with his skating ability, but I really like Mahura's offensive instincts better. There's also a diamond in the rough with Kyle Olsen. The Ducks finished strong to 2018. Should they continue that way going into 2019, then the Ducks don't need a savior, but rather some maturation of their young forwards. Please remember that Troy Terry was a fifth round pick in 2015. It was long term planning on the Ducks' scouting staff and he's here to stay now. This is why the Ducks will pick BPA, not positional need. With BPA, you can actually trade those assets in the future for other needs such as D Vats for C Rico or D Pettersson for F Sprong. Also with BPA, you can net more assets such as D Montour for D Guhle and a first round pick or F Chase de Leo for a sixth round pick.

Since we aren't usually in a position to select first overall, the org must compile a large contingent of very good players so that the team has the capacity to play all 60 minutes - which GM Bob alluded to in his exit interviews.

Yeah you're right, our pick this year shouldn't be expected to be our savior. I am just saying that I hope they're still swinging for high upside (which im sure they will be) because none of our current prospects are sure things to be top liners.
 

Masch78

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He’s a generational talent. This entire draft is 1-5. This isn’t Fricken 2012 with Nail Yakupov draft class. I promise you. Ducks are gonna take Suzuki at number 9 and the franchise is gonna wait 3 years before he can play. Getzlaf should be retired by then. And we can finally do a damn rebuild correctly.

So fricken disappointed in this team.


Until now generational talents arise every now and then but in this draft there are 5. But there must be more since position 3-5 are highly dynamic right now.

Obviously you have zero trust in our scouting staff, you have zero trust in this young group we have right now, you have zero trunst in Lundeström who may play next year, zero trust in the players we have and what you think about the owners and GM we all know. So either you're just a troll or, well, it would insult to say.

In the end of the day, noone knows who will play next year. Even Hughes may play one year in college. Kakko and Podkolzin are the closest imho.

Corey Pronman had a chat a the Athletic yesterday and he said:
@Dach Compete level, inconsistency has worried some. The toolkit as you said is something special.
@Krebs: Playmaking is very high end
@Turcotte: Can go as high as #3
@Newhook: Loved him in the BCHL but cooled down - U18s will determine where he goes
@Podkolzin: He's awesome. Ton of skill, IQ. Compete and physicality are elite. Big-time shot.

Says Hughes is not a top 10 player and will be somewhere between Hischier and Kane. @405Exit you see, different opinions on your great pool of generational talents.

How many forwards and d do you see as having top line/pair potential, even if it’s a bit of a long shot? He has 9

Brady Tkachuk would go #3rd overall if he would be drafted this year.
 
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Hockey Duckie

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I understand the concern. The way the organization is set up, they have everything *but* a truly elite franchise talent. Getzlaf isn't that guy anymore. Kase, Terry, Steel, Comtois, I love them all, but they aren't quite on the level of recent Cup winners' top guy: Crosby, Ovechkin or even Kane.

You *can* win it all without one of those guys, but it sure is easier with one, and it's awfully hard to get one without a top pick.

You realize that Getzlaf wasn't a top pick. You realize that Perry isn't a top pick. You do realize that Gibson isn't a top pick, let alone a first round pick - are you telling me that Gibson isn't a "truly elite franchise talent"? The Ducks are too good to get a top overall pick nowadays. This year was bad and it was aided with a rash of injuries, but also took a good turn at the end of the season as the young forwards began stepping up as well as the re-unification of Magnus and Manson.

Kase, Terry, Steel, Jones, and Comtois aren't one elite player, but that should also be a boon for the Ducks because you can't stop all five if all five are producing, especially if they're playing on different lines.

Maybe I'm a fan of long term planning and not living in "what should be", but rather of what is. "What should be" is a mentality I chose not to subscribe to because it strips reality, scouting, and planning. We did own #2 overall pick and landed Bobby Ryan. We traded Ryan and the Ducks got similar or better results for far cheaper with Silf alone. We still don't know what's up with Ritchie. Does having a top pick automatically mean you're a success? How many top-5 picks have the Oil had in recent years and where did they finish this year?

Oil first round picks
Year - Round - Overall... Player

2011..... 1st.......... 1st...... Nug
2012.... 1st........... 1st..... Nail
2013.... 1st........... 7th.... Nurse
2014.... 1st........... 3rd.... Draisaitl
2015.... 1st........... 1st..... McDavid
2016.... 1st........... 4th.... Puljujarvi
2017.... 1st........... 22nd.. Yamamoto
2018.... 1st.......... 10th... Bouchard
2019.... 1st.......... 8th.... ???

It seems as though the Oil has made the playoffs once since 2011? They've hit on the #1 overall three times out of eight years. Have they won the Cup already? Is this "tanking" idea a viable, winning prescription?

I don't think you give the Ducks' draft scouting staff much credit about today and the future. Kase, Terry, Comtois, Jones, and Steel will be here next season as possible mainstays, but all that happened many years ago. Kase, Terry, and Comtois are not first round selections, they were drafted in the seventh, fifth, and second rounds, respectively. Jones and Steel were drafted in 2016, 24th and 30th respectively. The 30th pick was acquired (along with a 2nd rounder in 2017 - Comtois) when the Ducks traded G Andersen to the Leafs. Andersen was a 3rd round pick in 2012 for the Ducks, a year after Gibby was drafted.

We have two 1st round picks going into 2019 NHL draft (hopefully the 9th and 20th). We took D Montour (a 2nd round pick) for prospect D Guhle and a late round first rounder in 2019.

Having more first round picks improves a team's chances of landing NHL players. The further away from the first round, the smaller the chances of a prospect reaching the NHL level. The Ducks scouting staff has been bucking that trend, though.

We have a franchise goalie. We went to the Stanley Cup Finals with barely a bit more than a franchise goalie in 2003. Winning the Cup is an arduous road and sometimes you need luck. Hopefully, both Kesler and Eaves retire so we can flex in our youth to help the team become faster and more dangerous offensively. All we need is a ticket to the playoffs. Afterwards, who knows. Or do you want to follow the "Oil path to success"?
 
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KyleJRM

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You realize that Getzlaf wasn't a top pick. You realize that Perry isn't a top pick. You do realize that Gibson isn't a top pick, let alone a first round pick - are you telling me that Gibson isn't a "truly elite franchise talent"? The Ducks are too good to get a top overall pick nowadays. This year was bad and it was aided with a rash of injuries, but also took a good turn at the end of the season as the young forwards began stepping up as well as the re-unification of Magnus and Manson.

I didn't say it was impossible to do it without a top pick. I said it was much harder, and it is. Perry isn't on that level, and I don't think I'd ever put a goalie there either.

The rest of it, you're preaching to the choir. I agree, I think we're in pretty good shape. I said I *understand* why they fixate on the idea of a top pick, because it addresses our biggest long-term hole, not that I think it's completely justified. We have lots of long-term strengths to go with that hole.
 

Masch78

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There is 9 great prospects (literally 9 unless you count Boldy) so it worked out, and everyone always reaches for one so we should have our choice between 2 guys.

Imho there are more. Boldy is one for me, Newhook is still one in my opinion and for me Pelletier, Höglander and Kaliyev are as well.

Tomasino would be an interesting choice at 20 depending on who is gone.
 
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KyleJRM

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Glancing around the boards of various teams tonight, almost every single one that was hoping on the draft lottery has posts about how "It's OK, there's no difference between X and Y, it's all about the same" where X is where they had been hoping to pick and Y is where they ended up.
 

Masch78

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Kase, Terry, Steel, Jones, and Comtois aren't one elite player

I'm not so sure on this. Terry or Steel, heck even Comtois can be one. We will see how they progress but some players might take some time. Look at the first pro seasons of Marchand, MacKinnon, Huberdeau or Blake Wheeler.
 

DavidBL

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I'm not so sure on this. Terry or Steel, heck even Comtois can be one. We will see how they progress but some players might take some time. Look at the first pro seasons of Marchand, MacKinnon, Huberdeau or Blake Wheeler.
Scheifele is another good example. His first elite year was draft+6. He was productive in 4 and 5 and broke out in 6.
 

KyleJRM

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I'm not so sure on this. Terry or Steel, heck even Comtois can be one. We will see how they progress but some players might take some time. Look at the first pro seasons of Marchand, MacKinnon, Huberdeau or Blake Wheeler.

Out of those four, the only one I'd think about putting into the tier I'm talking about is MacKinnon, who himself was a former No. 1 overall. The rest are very good but in that next tier below.
 

Masch78

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Out of those four, the only one I'd think about putting into the tier I'm talking about is MacKinnon, who himself was a former No. 1 overall. The rest are very good but in that next tier below.

All I'm saying is, I would not write of the "elite" status of any of our top guys. Anyone of them can become Top 20 point producer in the NHL. We will see how they progress. But Steel growing up centering a line with Rakell and Silfverberg. I just say watch out.
 

KyleJRM

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All I'm saying is, I would not write of the "elite" status of any of our top guys. Anyone of them can become Top 20 point producer in the NHL. We will see how they progress. But Steel growing up centering a line with Rakell and Silfverberg. I just say watch out.

This is the problem with vague modifiers. They always get expanded until way too many guys are argued for them.

If we're going to stretch elite this far, let's go up a notch to "generational." *Most* cup winners have a guy who is that level. I'm talking about guys who have repeated top-5 hart trophy seasons whenever they're healthy. Not just "really good, top-20 in scoring."

That's not the *only* way to build a Cup winner, and we're probably going to have to go a different route, but I understand why people were excited about a very high pick trying to get a guy like that.
 
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Masch78

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The Ducks have one player I'd put into or at least close to that generational mold - John Gibson. Btw when CHI won their two cups, none of Kane or Toews would have fit your criterias. Duncan Keith may have been the only one. Same with LA. Doughty was the only one. The rest of the team was just "really good top-20" guys.
 

KyleJRM

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I think that's selling Toews and Kane short, but it's close enough to be arguable.

The Kings were the team I was thinking of when I say you can build a team without one. Boston too.

It can be done. It's just harder.
 

ohcomeonref

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The Ducks have one player I'd put into or at least close to that generational mold - John Gibson. Btw when CHI won their two cups, none of Kane or Toews would have fit your criterias. Duncan Keith may have been the only one. Same with LA. Doughty was the only one. The rest of the team was just "really good top-20" guys.

Quick when he was "on" was one of those guys as well. We already have Gibson so we need a few of those top 20 guys and we'll be good to go.
 

bsu

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Can we close this one now
 
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