2019 Draft Discussion

[Jungle Boy]

Seider is ranked from 17 to 27 with several scouting services, so i would stay put.

Karl Henriksson as 3rd round pick would be nice.

With the other 3rd we could land Alexei Protas.

 

[LAKings88]

San Jose/Dallas/Boston/Carolina:: 22
San Jose/St. Louis/Boston/Carolina:: 22
Colorado/Dallas/Boston/Carolina:: 21
Colorado/St. Louis/Boston/Carolina:: 21

 

[No Name The Nameless]

I'm interested in Knight but with Peterson seemingly in the bank I'd hate to use pick 22 on him.

 

[Mats26]

I'm interested in Knight but with Peterson seemingly in the bank I'd hate to use pick 22 on him.

Don't worry we won't. We'll take one of the Euro D's or a quality forward that fell.

 

[AzKing]

I can't see a single scenario where the Kings would use one of their early picks on a goalie. Just too many other needs at this moment. Looking at the playoffs and we really need some high end skill with our first 3 picks.

 

[King'sPawn]

Maybe I'm one of the few, but aside from his puck handling skills, Knight doesn't seem to be all that spectacular as a goalie to me.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I like Knight. I do think someone else better is going to fall a bit. And we have bigger needs than G right now. By the time we need one, we can address it somehow. Until then, work with Quick/Campbell/Petersen and replacement-level guys if need be.

 

[kings11]

And now I’m back to;
#5)-Alex Turcotte/Bowen Byram/Kirby Dach
#21)-Moritz Seider/Bobby Brink/Ville Heinola
#33)-Bobby Brink/Ryan Johnson?

We should get 3 really good players... BPA

 

[Peter James Bond II]

And now I’m back to;
#5)-Alex Turcotte/Bowen Byram/Kirby Dach
#21)-Moritz Seider/Bobby Brink/Ville Heinola
#33)-Bobby Brink/Ryan Johnson?

We should get 3 really good players... BPA

So watch them surprise us all and draft
5 - Caulfield
21 - (AVS will win!, pick 21) Tobias Bjornfot
33 - Yegor Afanasyev

and we're all...what? They often surprise with the Vilallta's, Lintuniemi, Pearson 1st rd. They
will pick ones no one has talked about. I like that they drafted Finn - Kupari, Rus - Shafigullin and
Swe - Sodergran last year. Also have gone USHL and college. Should be interesting.

 

[Reaper45]

Shafigulin had a terrible year. Stay away from the kids who may never come over!

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Shafigulin had a terrible year. Stay away from the kids who may never come over!

Not sure about that, Reaper.

What does that say about the Russians in this upcoming draft who are 1-1,5 year younger and have much worse numbers than him.

 

[kings11]

So watch them surprise us all and draft
5 - Caulfield
21 - (AVS will win!, pick 21) Tobias Bjornfot
33 - Yegor Afanasyev

and we're all...what? They often surprise with the Vilallta's, Lintuniemi, Pearson 1st rd. They
will pick ones no one has talked about. I like that they drafted Finn - Kupari, Rus - Shafigullin and
Swe - Sodergran last year. Also have gone USHL and college. Should be interesting.

IMHO, i think we should make 2 trades
21st(246pts)+64th(99pts) for 14th-15th and guarantee we get a Seider, Harley, maybe even a Boldy if he slips.. 1st+our 3rd to move up, we still have Wash 3rd
33rd(154pts)+95th(68pts) for 22nd-23rd, 2nd+ our 4th and whose to say we still dont get Seider..and we still have Cal's 4th..
We utilize our extra picks to get a better player and we could possibly end up with
5- Alex Turcotte - Bowen Byram - Kirby Dach
15- Matthew Boldy - Thomas Harley - Moritz Seider
22- Alexander Newhook - Ryan Suzuki - Phillip Tomasino

Think 2003 done right ... the parity after the top 10-12 is pretty even so I expect a ton of movement... I also expect there to be a run for Dmen starting with Buffalo

 

[Reaper45]

Not sure about that, Reaper.

What does that say about the Russians in this upcoming draft who are 1-1,5 year younger and have much worse numbers than him.

Not sure about what? He had 2 assists in 31 games. He had 2 assists in 17 games last season.

The main issue is the lack of a transfer agreement. I dont see the point in wasting a high pick on a kid who odds are high will never come over. It's not a knock on their talent or anything I'd feel the same way with Finns or Swedes if there was a lack of a transfer agreement with those countries too.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Not sure about what? He had 2 assists in 31 games. He had 2 assists in 17 games last season.

The main issue is the lack of a transfer agreement. I dont see the point in wasting a high pick on a kid who odds are high will never come over. It's not a knock on their talent or anything I'd feel the same way with Finns or Swedes if there was a lack of a transfer agreement with those countries too.

That is purely the KHL.

He also played in the MHL, Reaper.

A prospect like Dorofeyev, rated late 1st round/2nd round in this years draft, had 1 goal in 23 KHL games.

He is 10 months younger than Bulat.

 

[Brodeur]

IMHO, i think we should make 2 trades
21st(246pts)+64th(99pts) for 14th-15th and guarantee we get a Seider, Harley, maybe even a Boldy if he slips.. 1st+our 3rd to move up, we still have Wash 3rd
33rd(154pts)+95th(68pts) for 22nd-23rd, 2nd+ our 4th and whose to say we still dont get Seider..and we still have Cal's 4th..

Out of curiosity, which draft pick value chart are you using? Those seem a bit light to move up unfortunately. Just some trades for reference:

2010: 15th = 19th+59th
2012: 14th = 21st+42nd
2013: 16th = 18th+58th

2010: 30th = 35th+58th
2011: 22nd = 30th+39th, 24th = 35th+48th
2014: 28th =35th+57th
2015: 28th = 33rd+72nd

 

[kings11]

Out of curiosity, which draft pick value chart are you using? Those seem a bit light to move up unfortunately. Just some trades for reference:

2010: 15th = 19th+59th
2012: 14th = 21st+42nd
2013: 16th = 18th+58th

2010: 30th = 35th+58th
2011: 22nd = 30th+39th, 24th = 35th+48th
2014: 28th =35th+57th
2015: 28th = 33rd+72nd

Michael Shuckers Drfat Pick Value Chart... the MIT stats professor

EDIT: I think that because after te top 10-12ish players the talent level is pretty damn equal and theres a ton of parity.. so its a BPA type draft from the mid-teens to mid-second round... so teams will look to add more value... atleast i think so

 

[johnjm22]

Not sure about what? He had 2 assists in 31 games. He had 2 assists in 17 games last season.

The main issue is the lack of a transfer agreement. I dont see the point in wasting a high pick on a kid who odds are high will never come over. It's not a knock on their talent or anything I'd feel the same way with Finns or Swedes if there was a lack of a transfer agreement with those countries too.

Guys like Gusev, Kucherov and Panarin didn't produce in their first stints in the KHL either.

I think there's a rule that each KHL team has to have a Russian junior player on their roster. So they'll have a guy like Bulat for compliance purposes without giving him much ice time.

 

[crassbonanza]

Michael Shuckers Drfat Pick Value Chart... the MIT stats professor

EDIT: I think that because after te top 10-12ish players the talent level is pretty damn equal and theres a ton of parity.. so its a BPA type draft from the mid-teens to mid-second round... so teams will look to add more value... atleast i think so

Eh, that chart seems to work as hypothetical value. I don't think anyone would trade the 54th overall(117) for three 7th round picks(40+40+40).

 

[Brodeur]

Michael Shuckers Drfat Pick Value Chart... the MIT stats professor

EDIT: I think that because after te top 10-12ish players the talent level is pretty damn equal and theres a ton of parity.. so its a BPA type draft from the mid-teens to mid-second round... so teams will look to add more value... atleast i think so

Looking over his page, he does have this blip which is concerning:

The data that we use is demographic (e.g, heights and weights), pre-draft performance (e.g., points per game and goals against average) and scouting (rankings from the NHL’s own Central Scouting Service (CSS)).

Central's list tends to be inaccurate. Tends to be a combination of them not having the same resources of an NHL team and they have a self-imposed deadline to create a final list by early April before the U18s start.

We focused on two cohorts of players: those drafted in the 1998 to 2002 drafts and those eligible to be taken in the 2004 to 2008 drafts.

I'm curious why he chose those years, while omitting the historically deep year in 2003. In particular 1999-2002 were below average drafts. That would skew his analysis.

Even if the probabilities of the 15th pick and 21st pick aren't that much different, I don't know if many teams would want to trade down just to add an extra 3rd and risk missing out on a target.

 

[kings11]

Looking over his page, he does have this blip which is concerning:



Central's list tends to be inaccurate. Tends to be a combination of them not having the same resources of an NHL team and they have a self-imposed deadline to create a final list by early April before the U18s start.



I'm curious why he chose those years, while omitting the historically deep year in 2003. In particular 1999-2002 were below average drafts. That would skew his analysis.

Even if the probabilities of the 15th pick and 21st pick aren't that much different, I don't know if many teams would want to trade down just to add an extra 3rd and risk missing out on a target.

I think those values come into play when considering how much parity there is in this draft class after the top 10.. then its like 11 to 25 were the Forwards and Dmen are on par with teams have favorites.. so if a team value Seider, Harley, Heinola, York the same why not move back within that 11-25 range and acquire an extra 3rd(Kings) in such a deep draft.. Just my opinion really...

 

[Brodeur]

Teams will have a preference, even if there's a bunch of D in the same area of the draft. I just don't see too many teams willingly trading down seven spots just to add a high 3rd. Trade downs typically happen because a team thinks they can move down and still grab the guy they would have taken anyways. GMs/scouts are wired to be a bit conservative in this regard. I remember Dean Lombardi saying something to the effect of "There's no worse feeling than trading down then missing out on the guy you wanted." So most teams tend to not risk it and will just take their choice of guys.

Draft pick value charts tend to work better for the NFL where you have so many positions to fill plus there's a reasonable expectation that a 2nd/3rd round pick will contribute.

 

[kovacro]

Really enjoy Sam Cosentino's work. He has a real strong knowledge of the Canadian junior ranks...

It’s getting crowded at the top.

Several things have happened since our last rankings were published. We witnessed the New Jersey Devils win the NHL Draft Lottery. We’ve seen most of the very best first-year draft eligibles participate in the World U18 Championship. Playoffs continue to eliminate potential picks, while those who still remain are getting additional platforms on which to prove their worth.

A few events remain, including the men’s World Championship, the Memorial Cup presented by Kia and the NHL Combine. Once those events are done, teams will meet, debate and deliberate en route to Vancouver in June.

Sportsnet’s 2019 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings: May - Sportsnet.ca

 

[YP44]

Really enjoy Sam Cosentino's work. He has a real strong knowledge of the Canadian junior ranks...

It’s getting crowded at the top.

Several things have happened since our last rankings were published. We witnessed the New Jersey Devils win the NHL Draft Lottery. We’ve seen most of the very best first-year draft eligibles participate in the World U18 Championship. Playoffs continue to eliminate potential picks, while those who still remain are getting additional platforms on which to prove their worth.

A few events remain, including the men’s World Championship, the Memorial Cup presented by Kia and the NHL Combine. Once those events are done, teams will meet, debate and deliberate en route to Vancouver in June.

Sportsnet’s 2019 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings: May - Sportsnet.ca

I could listen to Cosentino and loubardias talking about juniors all day long

 

[verbalkint47]

If Turcotte and Byram are gone I'm hoping for:
Dach at 5
and 2 of Bjornfot, Heinola, Seider, Brink, Tomasino, Knight at 22 + 33

 

[johnjm22]

The latest ISS rankings have Dach down to the 11th rated prospect. I wonder why he fell. Underwhelming playoff performance?

I still say Krebs is underrated.