2019 Draft Discussion

[Herby]

Well the good news is we don't have to hear

"He's not a Blake kind of player"...

everytime the discussion turns to drafting a skilled player.

 

[kilowatt]

Well the good news is we don't have to hear

"He's not a Blake kind of player"...

everytime the discussion turns to drafting a skilled player.

in all fairness we dont have any skilled players but thats just because we suck

 

[Herby]

in all fairness we dont have any skilled players but thats just because we suck

I think Kupari and Vilardi picks, plus Blake basically telling the media they are going forward this year tells us that Blake is pretty big on skilled forwards.

If they go forward this year it would be 5 for 5 (and potentially more) on taking forwards with 1st and 2nd round picks (Vilardi, JAD, Kupari, Thomas, 2019 pick). I think Blake knows it's an arm-race on skill and speed. I may be critical on some aspects of his management, but I will give him credit that he has that part nailed down.

 

[johnjm22]

I don't see him falling that far in this version of the NHL, feel like we'd have to trade up to get him, but I definitely get a Marner vibe from him.

I don't see him falling that far in the draft, especially given his recent milestones.

I think teams are still apprehensive about drafting a 5'7" tall player.

Depends a lot on where that Toronta pick ends up being. If the Leafs play Boston in the first round, there's a very good chance they lose IMO. That would put the pick around 20th.

Caufield is ranked between 16th-26th by the major scouting services.

 

[bob77]

I don't know how the algorithm is done. It would be best to contact Tankathon to get clarity on how they compute odds. They may have already accounted for that.

I wasn’t referring to the simulator, but rather the odds chart.

Maybe they have in their simulator, I agree. You only press the fun button once but it might have made three drawings. The actual first three picks is three different drawings, with all the ping pong balls removed so to speak for the SLOT that won the first pick to do the second pick, and so on with the third pick. Then order of slots remaining after that. I say slots instead of team because of the Avs who would have their own slot and Ottawa slot. So if let’s say their own slot at about 10 wins the first pick, they still get to keep all the ping pong balls in the bucket that relate to the Ottawa pick, and vice versa. It’s not like all the balls so to speak remain in the bucket for the Avs (both theirs and Ottawa) after one ball wins a pick.

As for how tankathon calculates odds for second and third pick, ALL prior to a first pick ever being made, it’s called Finite Mathematics. There is an Exact number of possibilities for the second round based on determining a slots chance in the second round by figuring out how that would play out as every slot had won the first pick. My friend told me that’s impossible to determine. So...the reference to math challenged. But I will admit the concept is extremely complicated, and you’re probably better in life for not understanding it.

 

[johnjm22]

So if the Kings lose today in regulation, and Ottawa wins on Wednesday, the Kings would take sole possession of dead last in the NHL!

 

[Martyros]

I think we should trade our two 3rd round picks to move up 1 spot and draft a Forbort-level player.

 

[Mats26]

So hows does the lottery odds work if Sens end up in last place and first lottery for 3rd overall Sens win it.
What are the new odds for the remaining teams now that the Sens are removed from the lottery for picks 2 and 1?

 

[King'sPawn]

So hows does the lottery odds work if Sens end up in last place and first lottery for 3rd overall Sens win it.
What are the new odds for the remaining teams now that the Sens are removed from the lottery for picks 2 and 1?

The lottery is for the first overall, first. After the first overall is won, the lottery numbers that team owns get redistributed and the lottery for second overall is won. The winning team's numbers then get redistributed to the remaining teams and the third overall pick is made.

After the third overall pick, 4th and on are just according to the teams with the worst record who didn't get a lottery pick (which is why you can't fall more than 3 places).

 

[Brodeur]

So hows does the lottery odds work if Sens end up in last place and first lottery for 3rd overall Sens win it.
What are the new odds for the remaining teams now that the Sens are removed from the lottery for picks 2 and 1?

As I understand it, the procedure is drawing 4 balls out of 14. This yields 1,001 different combinations (order doesn't matter, so 1-2-3-4 is the same as 2-4-3-1). One combination is thrown out and the remaining 1,000 are assigned to teams. The last place team will receive 185 combinations (18.5%).

After the first drawing, they reinsert the four balls which were drawn out and then redraw four more. If the same team "wins" the 2nd pick, they just redraw until there's a unique winner. A few years back, I tried to calculate the exact odds but got a bit of a headache accounting for every permutation.

Assuming Ottawa finishes last and 'won' the top spot, then the readjusted odds would be (x/815) for the 2nd pick. So if the Kings had 13.5% (135 combinations), then their odds for the second pick would be 135/815 ~ 16.56%.

But for the exact odds, you have to calculate the probabilities of all the other teams potentially winning and the equation gets kinda ugly. It's easier just to sit back and watch the lottery with whatever lucky charm you have handy.

 

[LAKings88]

If LA finishes last, is the farthest they can drop down to picking 4th?

 

[Mats26]

The lottery is for the first overall, first. After the first overall is won, the lottery numbers that team owns get redistributed and the lottery for second overall is won. The winning team's numbers then get redistributed to the remaining teams and the third overall pick is made.

After the third overall pick, 4th and on are just according to the teams with the worst record who didn't get a lottery pick (which is why you can't fall more than 3 places).

I must of recalled a past lottery that only showed the results on TV in reversed order. Like 3rd then 2nd and first. Ok so they do pick 1st overall first.

 

[Mats26]

As I understand it, the procedure is drawing 4 balls out of 14. This yields 1,001 different combinations (order doesn't matter, so 1-2-3-4 is the same as 2-4-3-1). One combination is thrown out and the remaining 1,000 are assigned to teams. The last place team will receive 185 combinations (18.5%).

After the first drawing, they reinsert the four balls which were drawn out and then redraw four more. If the same team "wins" the 2nd pick, they just redraw until there's a unique winner. A few years back, I tried to calculate the exact odds but got a bit of a headache accounting for every permutation.

Assuming Ottawa finishes last and 'won' the top spot, then the readjusted odds would be (x/815) for the 2nd pick. So if the Kings had 13.5% (135 combinations), then their odds for the second pick would be 135/815 ~ 16.56%.

But for the exact odds, you have to calculate the probabilities of all the other teams potentially winning and the equation gets kinda ugly. It's easier just to sit back and watch the lottery with whatever lucky charm you have handy.

So a team that barley misses the playoffs can have 3 chances to get a top 3 pick? Seems to me this system is flawed. I thought they would only redistribute the odds (percentage) to the bottom teams so the have higher odds at getting the next picks.

 

[Brodeur]

I must of recalled a past lottery that only showed the results on TV in reversed order. Like 3rd then 2nd and first. Ok so they do pick 1st overall first.

They do the reveal in reverse order, but I think they draw for #1 first in the sequestered room. Here's the behind the scenes video from last year:



They've been releasing the actual drawing if only to be transparent, albeit the conspiracy theorists will always be around. Philadelphia moved up and got Nolan Patrick, but it's a long shot. Brian Burke had a diatribe on Hockey Night in Canada about this and how he would restrict only the worst five teams from winning. Florida is currently #13 and only has a 6.6% shot at landing in the top 3 according to Tankathon's odds.

 

[bob77]

As I understand it, the procedure is drawing 4 balls out of 14. This yields 1,001 different combinations (order doesn't matter, so 1-2-3-4 is the same as 2-4-3-1). One combination is thrown out and the remaining 1,000 are assigned to teams. The last place team will receive 185 combinations (18.5%).

After the first drawing, they reinsert the four balls which were drawn out and then redraw four more. If the same team "wins" the 2nd pick, they just redraw until there's a unique winner. A few years back, I tried to calculate the exact odds but got a bit of a headache accounting for every permutation.

Assuming Ottawa finishes last and 'won' the top spot, then the readjusted odds would be (x/815) for the 2nd pick. So if the Kings had 13.5% (135 combinations), then their odds for the second pick would be 135/815 ~ 16.56%.

But for the exact odds, you have to calculate the probabilities of all the other teams potentially winning and the equation gets kinda ugly. It's easier just to sit back and watch the lottery with whatever lucky charm you have handy.

I was wondering exactly how they were doing the balls. This is the easiest way to have the fewest balls in the machine. I did not think of combinations, so I was literally thinking there would be 1000 balls.

 

[Brodeur]

Yeah I think that's a common misconception since that's how the early 90s NBA Draft lotteries were done. The NBA uses the "4 balls out of 14" method for its lottery nowadays.

And I still enjoy how Orlando winning the 1993 lottery with its long shot chance actually affected how the NHL decided its rules for the lottery from 1995-2013. When the NHL decided the rules in June 1995, they opted to limit a team from moving up a maximum of four spots because they wanted to avoid an "Orlando situation" where the best non-playoff team got a blue chip player. The Kings coincidentally won the first lottery in 1995 and moved up from #7 to #3. So you can blame Shaq and Penny Hardaway for the Kings ending up with Aki Berg instead of Bryan Berard (and that's a fun butterfly effect thought experiment for how Berard's career might have been different).

 

[bob77]

I must of recalled a past lottery that only showed the results on TV in reversed order. Like 3rd then 2nd and first. Ok so they do pick 1st overall first.

This time they would have to do the 1st overall first, so that chances adjust correctly for the 2nd pick and then later the 3rd. If on TV it doesn’t happen this way, then the drawing would have happened prior to the show and the TV thing would be a staged event, wanting to announce 3,2,1.

 

[bob77]

So a team that barley misses the playoffs can have 3 chances to get a top 3 pick? Seems to me this system is flawed. I thought they would only redistribute the odds (percentage) to the bottom teams so the have higher odds at getting the next picks.

Yes, but very slim, kind of like Dumb and Dumber movie! Ha!

 

[Brodeur]

The drawing and the reveal are different. I think the NBA does the same thing. Each teams sends a representative to watch the actual drawing. Each person has to turn in their cell phone and has to remain sequestered until after they do the reveal for TV. Those representatives are different than the representatives who the teams send to the TV studio where the show is being produced.

The actual drawing is done like 30 minutes before the TV show. Gary Bettman oversees the actual drawing, then the independent Ernst & Young people have time to order the envelopes for the TV reveal which is conducted by Bill Daly.

The drawing wouldn't be the most telegenic process. They pull out four balls and check a spreadsheet, rinse and repeat a couple more times.

 

[KINGS17]

So if the Kings lose today in regulation, and Ottawa wins on Wednesday, the Kings would take sole possession of dead last in the NHL!

 

[KINGS17]

The drawing and the reveal are different. I think the NBA does the same thing. Each teams sends a representative to watch the actual drawing. Each person has to turn in their cell phone and has to remain sequestered until after they do the reveal for TV. Those representatives are different than the representatives who the teams send to the TV studio where the show is being produced.

The actual drawing is done like 30 minutes before the TV show. Gary Bettman oversees the actual drawing, then the independent Ernst & Young people have time to order the envelopes for the TV reveal which is conducted by Bill Daly.

The drawing wouldn't be the most telegenic process. They pull out four balls and check a spreadsheet, rinse and repeat a couple more times.

I like my idea better. Welcome to NHL Draft Thunderdome!! Brackets are established, then the tournament begins. For each bracket...

 

[Reaper45]

I like my idea better. Welcome to NHL Draft Thunderdome!! Brackets are established, then the tournament begins. For each bracket...

We get to send MacDermid.

 

[KopitarFAN]

If LA finishes last, is the farthest they can drop down to picking 4th?

Yes. It works this way up to 4th where the furthest they can drop is 7th.

From 5th on, every team can be top 3, in their spot, or drop a few spots (15 obviously being the exception).

Full explanation:
2019 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

 

[KingsFan7824]

I like my idea better. Welcome to NHL Draft Thunderdome!! Brackets are established, then the tournament begins. For each bracket...

Say what you will about Bartertown, but there aren't many situations in life where this isn't the answer.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Extended highlights from the same game: