Prospect Info: 2019 Draft: 1st Pick: Philip Broberg - Part 2

[GOilers88]

However this is a discussion board. If everyone took the "let's not talk just have blind hope and wait" nothing would be posted.

I'm not directing this at you at all, but based on the amount of negativity around here even when things are going well sometimes I think that wouldn't be a bad thing

 

[Daryls Friend]

However this is a discussion board. If everyone took the "let's not talk just have blind hope and wait" nothing would be posted.

Agree with that

 

[oilexport]

My guess here is Holland wants his new Lidstrom and saw this guy.

I'll support the pick and the G.M. hoping its turns out.

I would have picked a forward then, and in hindsight too.

I guess if this guy turns into something really good, then I will understand the pick. Until then, it's a boo boo.

Just my realistic view, not negative.

 

[Todd Parchment]

Likely a bust already he has what like two points as an 18 year old in Sweden? Wow...

 

[ImmuneEH]

Uhh.....problem with always being negative? It is up to the Oilers to change this not the fans. The issue with people always being positive about every single move is at least as rampant and at least as bad as the negative nellies (of which I am one)

Go back and look at some of the threads on some really terrbile oiler moves such as the Reinhart deal and tons of people were delighted and took many shots at anyone that thought it sucked.

Start drafting and developing really good players and making the playoffs and the negatives will fall away. We have had 15 years of failure so it is up to them to make the fans think each move is going to be good rather than bad.

I think the issue is less this and more the fact that people seem to default to the negative on everything, which gets annoying after a while. Just because you're not negative about something doesn't automatically imply that you're positive about it. It could also mean that you're taking a more neutral, measured approach.

 

[nexttothemoon]

If Moberg plays more NHL games than Broberg... I'm applying for a job as head scout for the Oilers.

 

[nabob]

Likely a bust already he has what like two points as an 18 year old in Sweden? Wow...

Klefbom is also a bust right?

 

[Samus44]

However this is a discussion board. If everyone took the "let's not talk just have blind hope and wait" nothing would be posted.

It's balance dude, things are rarely black and white. Broberg isn't who i would have taken but he's a first round talent and no one ever knows how that will go, especially dmen. Balance isn't spinning his lack of production in the SHL at 18, which is not a red flag at all historically, into proclamations of a bust. It's not acting like Nurse isn't a quality level of player to get at 8 overall when the dude is a quality top 4 dman playing shutdown minutes on a good team. He's +10 since his rookie season, how many Oilers can say that, and he's broken 40 points while being still just 24. Nurse is a very good player even if he isn't elite.

It was a scary pick, that doesn't mean we should be expecting or looking for a failure. I'd also like to hope Broberg is better with the puck than Nurse but the truth is Broberg's story hasn't been written and being compared to a guy that likely every team in the league would want shouldn't be seen as a sky is falling scenario. Nurse isn't a perfect player, his breakout leaves a lot to be desired, but man he's a very rare combination of size, speed, toughness with decent skills. It's a combination rarely found outside of the top 10 in any draft, especially when it's one of the youngest guys in the draft like Broberg (Lavoie for example is nearly 1 year older). I don't think Nurse is a #1 D but i recognize he has the skills to succeed in a critical role as our shutdown D and that role is hard to fill and rarely done so at 24. Broberg isn't the ideal pick in my mind either but it doesn't mean he's bad just like Benson isn't bad because we could have take DeBrincat. Heck i wanted Ristolainen over Nurse, pretty glad that didn't happen.

Remove the emotion and look at the evidence, the evidence suggests he's on pace to be a player but the degree of upside historically isn't obvious at this point. And lets be honest if Broberg is an excellent two way guy at evens does it hurt us that much if the offensive upside isn't there to QB a PP? Bouchard and maybe even Samorukov or Bear have the potential to fill that role and Klefbom is doing it right now on a #1 PP. This team needs difference makers at evens and if Broberg is like Nurse at evens offensively and defensively then we shouldn't have a lot of regrets. And since you apparently missed it i'll post the 18 year old SHL dman stats again:

18-Year Old SHL Defensemen - Regular Season Stats

This is the last thing i'll say on the sincerity or rationality of your views. Being balanced in assessing the future i would suggest involves being both skeptical and hopeful and then using the info available to determine where you lean. You seem to lean towards skepticism with little to no desire to look for hope, and from my perspective even discounting/ignoring relevant data that suggests otherwise, and that's not reasonable given what we currently know about the team and this player. I know the losing has been tough but i just honestly find it confounding how someone so jaded could continue to be so invested and still be a fan. You seem like a masochist or something. lol.

 

[CycloneSweep]

It's balance dude, things are rarely black and white. Broberg isn't who i would have taken but he's a first round talent and no one ever knows how that will go, especially dmen. Balance isn't spinning his lack of production in the SHL at 18, which is not a red flag at all historically, into proclamations of a bust. It's not acting like Nurse isn't a quality level of player to get at 8 overall when the dude is a quality top 4 dman playing shutdown minutes on a good team. He's +10 since his rookie season, how many Oilers can say that, and he's broken 40 points while being still just 24. Nurse is a very good player even if he isn't elite.

It was a scary pick, that doesn't mean we should be expecting or looking for a failure. I'd also like to hope Broberg is better with the puck than Nurse but the truth is Broberg's story hasn't been written and being compared to a guy that likely every team in the league would want shouldn't be seen as a sky is falling scenario. Nurse isn't a perfect player, his breakout leaves a lot to be desired, but man he's a very rare combination of size, speed, toughness with decent skills. It's a combination rarely found outside of the top 10 in any draft, especially when it's one of the youngest guys in the draft like Broberg (Lavoie for example is nearly 1 year older). I don't think Nurse is a #1 D but i recognize he has the skills to succeed in a critical role as our shutdown D and that role is hard to fill and rarely done so at 24. Broberg isn't the ideal pick in my mind either but it doesn't mean he's bad just like Benson isn't bad because we could have take DeBrincat. Heck i wanted Ristolainen over Nurse, pretty glad that didn't happen.

Remove the emotion and look at the evidence, the evidence suggests he's on pace to be a player but the degree of upside historically isn't obvious at this point. And lets be honest if Broberg is an excellent two way guy at evens does it hurt us that much if the offensive upside isn't there to QB a PP? Bouchard and maybe even Samorukov or Bear have the potential to fill that role and Klefbom is doing it right now on a #1 PP. This team needs difference makers at evens and if Broberg is like Nurse at evens offensively and defensively then we shouldn't have a lot of regrets. And since you apparently missed it i'll post the 18 year old SHL dman stats again:

18-Year Old SHL Defensemen - Regular Season Stats

This is the last thing i'll say on the sincerity or rationality of your views. Being balanced in assessing the future i would suggest involves being both skeptical and hopeful and then using the info available to determine where you lean. You seem to lean towards skepticism with little to no desire to look for hope, and from my perspective even discounting/ignoring relevant data that suggests otherwise, and that's not reasonable given what we currently know about the team and this player. I know the losing has been tough but i just honestly find it confounding how someone so jaded could continue to be so invested and still be a fan. You seem like a masochist or something. lol.

Okay you posted points by an 18 year old defensemen, guys in and around him the only notable I found was Klefbom. And you said this info shows that he is killing it?

On the hopeful side Klefbom shows it is possible for him to turn around. The skeptical side shows that he is a whole lot of nothing right now. Things can absolutely change like they did Klefbom.

The evidence shows absolutely nothing for him right now, I don't how your stats you posted prove it either way.

So fine you opened my eyes, Broberg might end up as someone because we drafted him. However the evidence shows really nothing and until his game improves and he shows it I will remain skeptical. And as I showed before, top 10 picks, if they make it as a legit NHLer are full time guys in their draft+3 year or pretty much not at all. So he pretty much needs a very steep progression next year or his chances are slim.

That's not me being negative, that's just what the evidence has shown, there are outliers sure. If Broberg ends up a 3rd pairing defender, it'll be a disappointing pick, HOWEVER that could change at any time.

That said, like all prospects you can only judge them based on the performances they give you. Some guys come out of no where sure, but most prospects usually show you who they are.

So that's the last I'll say on him till he does something worth talking about

 

[McDNicks17]

If Moberg plays more NHL games than Broberg... I'm applying for a job as head scout for the Oilers.

The real question is can draft eligible, Linus Oberg, overtake both of them?

With the great Aki Berg in mind, my theory is the less letters before Berg the better.

 

[iCanada]

Trying to turn a D into an F gets you Jones for Johansen.

Jones for Johansen is a much better trade than Hall for Larsson, and the big reason Nashville overpaid is they were desperate for a big defensive C that can score.

Everyone wants a that kind of C and a a D. Wings are usually available; look at this year we've had Panarin, Hall, Kessell, Gusev, Neal, Shaw, Saad, Burakovsky, etc all traded.

No big name D or C were traded, except for Kadri and Barrie who were traded for one another.

 

[Nostradumbass]

The real question is can draft eligible, Linus Oberg, overtake both of them?

With the great Aki Berg in mind, my theory is the less letters before Berg the better.

Pontus Aberg tends to disagree.

 

[McDNicks17]

Pontus Aberg tends to disagree.

I'll blame it on the funny thing over the A.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Jones for Johansen is a much better trade than Hall for Larsson, and the big reason Nashville overpaid is they were desperate for a big defensive C that can score.

Everyone wants a that kind of C and a a D. Wings are usually available; look at this year we've had Panarin, Hall, Kessell, Gusev, Neal, Shaw, Saad, Burakovsky, etc all traded.

No big name D or C were traded, except for Kadri and Barrie who were traded for one another.

Are you saying there's a higher cost in trading a winger for a C or D? Also, I would hardly consider Johansen, a 15 goal centre, a "C that can score." RNH consistently scores more goals than he does.

 

[Nostradumbass]

I'll blame it on the funny thing over the A.

The funny things over the A have led to the demise of many top prospects' careers, such as Magnus Pääjärvi and Jesse Puljujärvi.

 

[Samus44]

Okay you posted points by an 18 year old defensemen, guys in and around him the only notable I found was Klefbom. And you said this info shows that he is killing it?

On the hopeful side Klefbom shows it is possible for him to turn around. The skeptical side shows that he is a whole lot of nothing right now. Things can absolutely change like they did Klefbom.

The evidence shows absolutely nothing for him right now, I don't how your stats you posted prove it either way.

So fine you opened my eyes, Broberg might end up as someone because we drafted him. However the evidence shows really nothing and until his game improves and he shows it I will remain skeptical. And as I showed before, top 10 picks, if they make it as a legit NHLer are full time guys in their draft+3 year or pretty much not at all. So he pretty much needs a very steep progression next year or his chances are slim.

That's not me being negative, that's just what the evidence has shown, there are outliers sure. If Broberg ends up a 3rd pairing defender, it'll be a disappointing pick, HOWEVER that could change at any time.

That said, like all prospects you can only judge them based on the performances they give you. Some guys come out of no where sure, but most prospects usually show you who they are.

So that's the last I'll say on him till he does something worth talking about

10 players since the 90's have played in the SHL at 18 and scored more than 10 points.

Hedman-21
Brannstrom-15
Jacob Larsson-
Tim Erixon-13
Soderstrom-13 and counting
Erik Karlsson - 10
Nils Lundkvist -10
Tim Head - 10
Rundblad - 10

This list has mixed results with Hedman and Karlsson being the 2 exceptional players. Brannstrom and Larsson are solid prospects with the 5'9 Brannstrom looking overhyped and Larsson still trying to establish himself. Soderstrom is doing something exceptional while likely being used in an offensive role and Lundkvist looks like a strong prospect. Tim Heed is nothing special while Erixson and Rundblad were epic busts. Point totals have a ton to do with usage for dmen and the SHL is a very defensive and talented league. It doesn't mean that much.

Klefbom, Klingberg, Brodin, Larsson all became good players despite not scoring a lot. I'm not saying we should be excited by Broberg's offense i'm just saying it's nothing too alarming either. Of all the players i've listed only Hedman is more physically gifted in terms of size and skating and he may be the most physically gifted guy in the league.
And again Broberg is a really young 18.

 

[CycloneSweep]

10 players since the 90's have played in the SHL at 18 and scored more than 10 points.

Hedman-21
Brannstrom-15
Jacob Larsson-
Tim Erixon-13
Soderstrom-13 and counting
Erik Karlsson - 10
Nils Lundkvist -10
Tim Head - 10
Rundblad - 10

This list has mixed results with Hedman and Karlsson being the 2 exceptional players. Brannstrom and Larsson are solid prospects with the 5'9 Brannstrom looking overhyped and Larsson still trying to establish himself. Soderstrom is doing something exceptional while likely being used in an offensive role and Lundkvist looks like a strong prospect. Tim Heed is nothing special while Erixson and Rundblad were epic busts. Point totals have a ton to do with usage for dmen and the SHL is a very defensive and talented league. It doesn't mean that much.

Klefbom, Klingberg, Brodin, Larsson all became good players despite not scoring a lot. I'm not saying we should be excited by Broberg's offense i'm just saying it's nothing too alarming either. Of all the players i've listed only Hedman is more physically gifted in terms of size and skating and he may be the most physically gifted guy in the league.
And again Broberg is a really young 18.

Never said to be alarmed, my point and I'll say it one last damn time. I thought it was a bad pick to begin with, and he has done nothing to change my mind.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Y’all are arguing with someone who declared Broberg as the next Griffin Reinhart the moment he was drafted.

 

[nabob]

Never said to be alarmed, my point and I'll say it one last damn time. I thought it was a bad pick to begin with, and he has done nothing to change my mind.

Will you also say again that you never watched him before the draft and hadn’t except for a few highlights up until you watched a few games during the recent WJHC? It’s like you expect everyone to take your “scouting” of him as gospel for some reason.

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

The kid is so far from being a developed product; how can we predict anything at this point?

People on this board were calling Yammers, and even Drai, a bust without allowing them time to be given second or third attempts at developing chemistry with a few players and with the overall team system.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Drai could still bust... he's on pace for a paltry 45... may never sniff 50 again.

 

[LaGu]

Uhh.....problem with always being negative? It is up to the Oilers to change this not the fans. The issue with people always being positive about every single move is at least as rampant and at least as bad as the negative nellies (of which I am one)

Go back and look at some of the threads on some really terrbile oiler moves such as the Reinhart deal and tons of people were delighted and took many shots at anyone that thought it sucked.

Start drafting and developing really good players and making the playoffs and the negatives will fall away. We have had 15 years of failure so it is up to them to make the fans think each move is going to be good rather than bad.

I don't see a problem with some taking a negative view on things, several posters in this thread did not like this pick and can explain why with a degree of rationality. However, the problem is when posters just make things up to support a negative narrative, which has happened a lot here. That should be called out, on both sides. Personally I am getting less and less inclined to do so because most often it is just ignored and a couple of pages later you'll see the same thing again.

 

[Draiskull]

At worst, Broberg will be a pretty valuable trade chip down the road. Nurse could also be moved to the right side.

Nurse, Bear, Bouchard at RD
Klefbom, Samourkov, Broberg at LD

 

[McGoMcD]

10 players since the 90's have played in the SHL at 18 and scored more than 10 points.

Hedman-21
Brannstrom-15
Jacob Larsson-
Tim Erixon-13
Soderstrom-13 and counting
Erik Karlsson - 10
Nils Lundkvist -10
Tim Head - 10
Rundblad - 10

This list has mixed results with Hedman and Karlsson being the 2 exceptional players. Brannstrom and Larsson are solid prospects with the 5'9 Brannstrom looking overhyped and Larsson still trying to establish himself. Soderstrom is doing something exceptional while likely being used in an offensive role and Lundkvist looks like a strong prospect. Tim Heed is nothing special while Erixson and Rundblad were epic busts. Point totals have a ton to do with usage for dmen and the SHL is a very defensive and talented league. It doesn't mean that much.

Klefbom, Klingberg, Brodin, Larsson all became good players despite not scoring a lot. I'm not saying we should be excited by Broberg's offense i'm just saying it's nothing too alarming either. Of all the players i've listed only Hedman is more physically gifted in terms of size and skating and he may be the most physically gifted guy in the league.
And again Broberg is a really young 18.

This is a good post. Honest question, if anyone knows, why do Dmen score so little in the SEL. I have never watched a game. It seems bizarre how few points really good dmen tend to get. It is often the case that players come to the NHL and get many more points. Is it just that low scoring?

ps. Broberg is a classic Holland pic. Find a guy at the draft who isn't polished but trending up really fast. Give him some extra time to develop and watch him shine. I just hope he is doing it again. Broberg has raw tools that could make him elite. He clearly hasn't had the time other players have had against elite comp to develop his game. Just like Zetterberg, Datsyk, Lidstrom... the list goes on didn't when Holland drafted them as well.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Zetterberg was drafted #210 overall... 21 years ago
Datsyuk was drafted #171 overall... 22 years ago
Lidstrom was drafted #53 overall... 31 years ago

If any of those players never panned out.. you wouldn't have heard anything about those picks.

Broberg is a #8 pick in what looks to be a strong draft... if he doesn't pan out it hurts a lot more.

Scouting and availability of information has also changed/improved a lot over the last 3 decades so I don't think it's quite as easy to find "shockingly" great players late in the draft like used to happen semi-regularly... and not just with teams like the Red Wings. Oates/Ciccarelli/Mullen/St Louis etc all went completely undrafted in the "Old Days" as well... but times change.

Point being... Broberg better pan out as there's some pretty decent prospects passed over in favour of him as it wasn't a 6th or 7th round shot in the dark that they used to choose him.