I liked Kolyachohok a lot at the U18s and he seems to be ranked around there. Bjornfot seems to be getting some love as a late riser. Robertson is intriguing, but again, I wonder if he will be able to move the puck in the pros. No idea about Korczak and Johnson but the same questions seem to arise looking at stats
Don't put too much stock into stats with young defensemen. Robertson is a better passer and puck handler than Philip Broberg and Victor Soderstrom, who are both being talked about by some draft writers as top 10 picks. But defensemen who play a conservative overall game are the most overlooked commodity on draft day, which is why Bjornfot is regarded as the third-best Swedish defenseman in this draft, when in my mind he could very well be the best of the three in five years.
With offensive defensemen, the stats say more of the story than with shut-down guys, and as such defensive-minded defensemen remain the greatest mid-to-late round value in the NHL draft. Jake Slavin, Brandon Carlo and Marc-Edouard Vlasic type players are routinely found later in drafts, oft-passed upon by teams throwing darts at speedy puck-rushers in the vague hope of unearthing the next Erik Karlsson.
In my mind, the 2019 draft offers one "sure bet" in terms of finding a top-pairing defenseman who will contribute great offensive numbers at the NHL level, and that's Bowen Byram. There are several other two-way D I like who have possible top-pairing upside, such as Moritz Seider, Cam York, Lassi Thomson and Slava Kolyachonok. There are several steady, not flashy D who have enough offense to offer value as a first round pick, such as Victor Soderstrom, Matthew Robertson, Ville Heinola, Kaeden Korczak and Tobias Bjornfot. There are a few wild-card D who offer huge offensive upside but a great deal of associated risk, such as Philip Broberg, Thomas Harley, Ryan Johnson and Anttoni Honka. I expect all the players mentioned in this paragraph to be gone by midway through the second round of the 2019 draft.
To me, where the value comes in is with your Slavin-type and Vlasic-type and Carlo-type defensive D, which teams need to win but not players who put up big numbers. I have focused on these players throughout my Devils draft thread posts. Case McCarthy could last through the second round. Jake Lee is one of the five most underrated players in this draft class, he could fall to the fourth. Jake Lee's
floor is as a physical third-pairing guy with a hard point shot and good outlet pass, and several draft writers have him outside their top 100. We're talking about a kid who can be Jake Muzzin-plus if he ups his skating a notch and gains a bit more confidence with the puck.
How about Drew Helleson? He's a huge, right-shot D who skates extremely well, and plays with a calm and defensive steadiness which is neck and neck with Soderstrom... but for some reason he's outside the top 62 for several writers. Or one of my draft faves for 2019 Will Francis? He's a 6'4-215 RD who is as physical as any player in the draft. Does he have any offensive upside whatsoever? No, but I'll gladly spend the 6th/7th round pick it will likely require to get him for a guy who will win every corner battle and send any opponent flying who dares to take an extra whack after Mackenzie Blackwood has covered the puck.
I realize I'm throwing a bunch of names out there, but my point is that defensive-minded defensemen are value picks. So, I agree with you wholeheartedly that, if there is a top-end F available to the Devils with the #34 pick, they should take him. But man, if not? It sure would be nice to have a young Slavin or Carlo in the prospect pipeline, as well.
