Prospect Info: 2019 - 2020 Top 20 Blues Prospect List - #8

[Brian39]

Went Poganski because he is probably the closest to the NHL, his size/speed kind of reminds me of MacEachern. I think we tend to overrate upside/unknowns in these polls over players who are a couple of injuries away from being in the NHL, especially when we get into this range of prospect.

Foley would have been my pick if he was healthy. Fitz and Toro could start in the ECHL this year, they got work to do. Alexandrov is 18 and was pretty much a 3rd round pick, he is a long way off. Walman has talent, but is inconsistent and will he get an opportunity here with Dunn being our 'rover'/offensive defenseman? Stevens isn't a great skater and I'm not sure he is skilled enough to get by.

I absolutely value "upside but far from the NHL" more highly than "limited upside but potential injury fill in this year." At the end of the day, it is easy to find cheap guys who are AHL/NHL tweeners and can adequately fill in for a rash of injuries. They hit waivers all the time and you can get guys like that for dirt cheap in UFA. Look at the AHL signings we made at the start of free agency. When talking about ranking our prospects, I value a guy who coule potentially be a middles sixer eventually over a guy who is a for sure 4th line/depth forward now. And I value them that way because I know that if needed, I can acquire a similar depth guy from outside the organization at no or very little cost.

 

[Frenzy31]

He was actually probably the oldest 1st year eligible drafted players as he missed deadline last year by a day.

Shoot. You are correct, he is a 2000. Dang, I wonder who I am thinking of - it was Washkurak - August 2001 Bday. We had one of the oldest and one of the youngest...

 

[STL fan in MN]

Jackson begins pro career in AHL with San Antonio, finishing schoolwork to graduate from SCSU

I've also tweeted several references to the contract and his family, who now follows me, has liked those tweets.

I had never heard of Robby Jackson (must’ve missed or forgotten the Rampage signed him at the end of the college season) but after doing extensive research on him (clicking on his eliteprospects page and reading most of this article), I am fairly confident he’s at least way better than either Helt or Krag.

 

[David Dennison]

I absolutely value "upside but far from the NHL" more highly than "limited upside but potential injury fill in this year." At the end of the day, it is easy to find cheap guys who are AHL/NHL tweeners and can adequately fill in for a rash of injuries. They hit waivers all the time and you can get guys like that for dirt cheap in UFA. Look at the AHL signings we made at the start of free agency. When talking about ranking our prospects, I value a guy who coule potentially be a middles sixer eventually over a guy who is a for sure 4th line/depth forward now. And I value them that way because I know that if needed, I can acquire a similar depth guy from outside the organization at no or very little cost.

I don't disagree in principle, but my point is that we are kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel and I think at this point people tend to equate younger/unknown with upside, which is what I disagree with.

Like we haven't seen Toropchenko at the AHL level and, less one playoff run, nothing about his production indicates he has much scoring upside. But he is big and people say he is a good skater and he is Russian and we haven't seen him in the AHL, so we don't KNOW the scoring upside isnt there. He is currently 2nd in voting, does he really have more scoring upside than everyone else (sans Alexandrov) on this list?

Compare him with someone like Walman, who played on Championship teams in the NCAA, has been highly regarded around here in previous seasons, who has 'upside' because there is a lot of value in puck moving/offensive defensemen. He wasn't very good in the AHL his first two years there (but neither were the teams that he was playing on), but something could click or an opportunity could open up or he gets the right defensive partner or the team around him simply gets better, and he could be in the NHL by the end of the year. Likely? Probably not, but upside is upside, right? The voting indicates otherwise, and probably with good reason, because the LIKELIHOOD he reaches that ceiling is getting smaller and smaller.

Tl:dr, I don't think any of the remaining players have a very high chance of reaching their ceiling, so their most likely outcome should absolutely be part of the conversation.

 

[EL Bandito]

Not voting for him yet but Joel Hofer is going to shoot up the rankings this year. Reminds me a lot of a young Hellebuyck.

I feel Laferriere is going to do the same much like Blais did (same scout). He has untapped upside and was highly thought of dating back to midget days. He's my upside pick here. Foley would've been #6 on my list.

 

[CoMoBlues]

I had never heard of Robby Jackson (must’ve missed or forgotten the Rampage signed him at the end of the college season) but after doing extensive research on him (clicking on his eliteprospects page and reading most of this article), I am fairly confident he’s at least way better than either Helt or Krag.

This is blasphemy sir. No Blues European prospects with four letter last names have caught more of the attention of the fanbase, except for Bokk I guess.

 

[Frenzy31]

I don't disagree in principle, but my point is that we are kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel and I think at this point people tend to equate younger/unknown with upside, which is what I disagree with.

Like we haven't seen Toropchenko at the AHL level and, less one playoff run, nothing about his production indicates he has much scoring upside. But he is big and people say he is a good skater and he is Russian and we haven't seen him in the AHL, so we don't KNOW the scoring upside isnt there. He is currently 2nd in voting, does he really have more scoring upside than everyone else (sans Alexandrov) on this list?

Compare him with someone like Walman, who played on Championship teams in the NCAA, has been highly regarded around here in previous seasons, who has 'upside' because there is a lot of value in puck moving/offensive defensemen. He wasn't very good in the AHL his first two years there (but neither were the teams that he was playing on), but something could click or an opportunity could open up or he gets the right defensive partner or the team around him simply gets better, and he could be in the NHL by the end of the year. Likely? Probably not, but upside is upside, right? The voting indicates otherwise, and probably with good reason, because the LIKELIHOOD he reaches that ceiling is getting smaller and smaller.

Tl:dr, I don't think any of the remaining players have a very high chance of reaching their ceiling, so their most likely outcome should absolutely be part of the conversation.

Laferierre has accomplished more and been more productive then Topo at the same level.

I think Topo had more hype coming out of the draft. But Poganski and Stevens I would put ahead of him.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Laferierre has accomplished more and been more productive then Topo at the same level.

I think Topo had more hype coming out of the draft. But Poganski and Stevens I would put ahead of him.

I mean, pump the breaks on the Laferriere hype. Yes he had better production, but the Q is a cakewalk if all you know how to do is score. I like him and his upside, but let’s be careful about inter-league comps like responsible adults

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Gotta be Alexandrov here. He’s the only forward with legitimate top 9 potential left.

 

[Blues0307]

I mean, pump the breaks on the Laferriere hype. Yes he had better production, but the Q is a cakewalk if all you know how to do is score. I like him and his upside, but let’s be careful about inter-league comps like responsible adults

I don't see anything in his post to suggest he's hyping Laferriere. He just presented some reasonable analysis.

 

[Frenzy31]

I mean, pump the breaks on the Laferriere hype. Yes he had better production, but the Q is a cakewalk if all you know how to do is score. I like him and his upside, but let’s be careful about inter-league comps like responsible adults

I am not hyping Laferierre. I just like his offensive upside more then Topo. I think Laferierre and Blais are good comparisons. Both played in the Q, both have size and both produced. Yes, I agree the Q is really the bottom of the CHL, but it isn;t too far below the WHL and is still high level hockey and to produce is impressive. I really like his jump in production and the fact it earned him an invite to team Canada. Both are really positive for me.

Bottom line, he is likely becomes a tweener. Someone who may not have enough offense to be a Top 6 and doesn't really have a role unless he plays a physical game like Blais, and bounces between the NHL and AHL. A good AHL scorer, but not good enough. More then anything, I like his trajectory - if he can continue to build on last year and make team Canada, then I like him much better. He is getting better and more productive.

Topo, we didn't see much statistical improvement in the past two years and outside of speed and physicality, I am not sure he brings much. (He has a much lower ceiling and a higher floor - but at best he becomes a 4th liner). Both players are have very little outside chance to make the NHL in any role. But, I would rather have the guy with the higher ceiling.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

The amount of disrespect the Q gets is mind-boggling. When a player does well in the Q, that same player would do well in any of the other junior leagues.

 

[Blueston]

The amount of disrespect the Q gets is mind-boggling. When a player does well in the Q, that same player would do well in any of the other junior leagues.

Agreed. While the O is typically the best of the CHL, last year was rather a down year for the O and the Q was relatively strong. But overall the difference across the leagues can be overstated. If you want to discount stats of players in the Q or W (which also tends to be more high-scoring) the discount would generally be in the neighborhood of 10-15%.

 

[Bluesguru]

How's Tanner Kaspick looking? I voted for him. When I saw him play, he showed great hockey sense. Good feel for the game. Is he progressing?

 

[STL fan in MN]

Agreed. While the O is typically the best of the CHL, last year was rather a down year for the O and the Q was relatively strong. But overall the difference across the leagues can be overstated. If you want to discount stats of players in the Q or W (which also tends to be more high-scoring) the discount would generally be in the neighborhood of 10-15%.

I would tend to agree. The USHL gets a little overly discounted as well IMO. They’re all good leagues. In general, I’d rank them in order of OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL (and then Canadian Jr A leagues like the BCHL & OPJHL after that), but the 3 Canadian Major Jr leagues are all very high level Jr leagues.

Specific to Laferriere, I’m also intrigued by him. I’ll be interested to see how he does here in his 19 year old season in the Q.

 

[Novacain]

How's Tanner Kaspick looking? I voted for him. When I saw him play, he showed great hockey sense. Good feel for the game. Is he progressing?

Like a complete lottery ticket with 4th line upside. Poganski far out played him this year.

 

[Beauterham]

Like a complete lottery ticket with 4th line upside. Poganski far out played him this year.

And to add: with guys like Vecchione, Olsen, Stevens, Jackson, Joshua, etc. who can all play center, I wouldn't even be surprised if Kaspick starts the new season in Tulsa.

 

[STL fan in MN]

And to add: with guys like Vecchione, Olsen, Stevens, Jackson, Joshua, etc. who can all play center, I wouldn't even be surprised if Kaspick starts the new season in Tulsa.

I’d have to agree. Unless he somehow takes off, I see Kaspick having a career similar to Tesink or Pochiro.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Add LW Mitchell Balmas to the mix. He's a training camp invitee who has put up big numbers in the Q including 80+ points last season.

 

[Beauterham]

EDIT: deleted

 

[STL fan in MN]

Add LW Mitchell Balmas to the mix. He's a training camp invitee who has put up big numbers in the Q including 80+ points last season.

Have they even announced training camp invitees yet? Or are you talking about the prospects camp that happened in June? Either way, I don’t think we should be counting invitees to camps that aren’t signed to contracts as they’re technically free agents free to sign with anyone.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Balmas invited to attend Blues training camp in September | Cape Breton Post

Agreed, he's not technically a Blues prospect yet. But with his numbers, he will be interesting to follow come September.