Prospect Info: 2019-2020 Prospect Development Tracker

[AveryStar4Eva]

Stars have no 2nd or 3rd this year so if there's a trade to turn the first thats basically equal to a 2nd rounder this year into more picks you do it unless someone falls into your lap you can't pass up on with the 1st rounder. At least thats my opinion.

Agreed outside of the top ten it’s a crap shoot. Get as many lotto tickets as you can

 

[BigG44]

The one flaw in this is we know McDonnell ... nearly every single year .... makes a comment that his 1st and/or 2nd round pick were a Top 10/15 player on his board. We do know that guy loves to fall in love with guys.

It's pretty easy to imagine a guy sitting there at 30/31 that McDonnell thinks is a Top 15 player.

Off the top of my head for recent picks ... I'm pretty sure he's said it about Gurianov, Hintz, Dellandrea, and Robertson. I can't remember if Harley got that endorsement. Now, the flip side is many of this picks are turning out to be contributors for Dallas.

 

[M88K]

The one flaw in this is we know McDonnell ... nearly every single year .... makes a comment that his 1st and/or 2nd round pick were a Top 10/15 player on his board. We do know that guy loves to fall in love with guys.

It's pretty easy to imagine a guy sitting there at 30/31 that McDonnell thinks is a Top 15 player.

Off the top of my head for recent picks ... I'm pretty sure he's said it about Gurianov, Hintz, Dellandrea, and Robertson. I can't remember if Harley got that endorsement. Now, the flip side is many of this picks are turning out to be contributors for Dallas.

2 picks is not many

 

[BigG44]

It's not 2 picks, but I'm not going to argue about it. 3 guys are top prospects with legitimate shots at opening roster next season.

 

[WhoahNow]

At least that group of 4 is talented players where you could see them really liking them. If he had said that about Tufte, then yikes!

Just looking through the Stars draft history under Nill. Yuck
2013: Nichushkin, Dickinson, Nick Paul (traded for Spezza so at least had value)
2014: The ghost of Honka
2015: Gurianov, Hintz (getting two top 6 players in a draft is pretty sweet I'll admit)
2016: nothing
2017: Heiskanen, Oettinger, Robertson (first two rounds were great)
2018: Dellandrea, Daimani still has potential to be a bottom six guy i suppose.
2019: Harley

It's like Nill got slightly better at drafting in the first round than Niewy in exchange for getting nothing out of the rest of the draft

 

[BigG44]

I'm not a McDonnell fan, and I'd be happy to see a change there. I doubt that though because Nill is loyal, and he happens to be the guy setting the tone for what to prioritize.

That said ... acting like you can evaluate 2019 picks and several other 1, 2, or 3 years after a draft is pretty silly. On top of that, most teams hit on 1 or 2 year guys a year ... or none. Dallas is falling within pretty normal ranges. It's reasonable and pretty common to not evaluate most picks (especially outside of the 1st round) for about 5 years. If they bust so hard to not get a contract ... sure right them off . That 2014 was a disaster.

The quality of their hits isn't great because they play it extremely safe most picks. Recently ... they've been a bit more accepting of offensive talent and skill with guys like Harley or a Robertson which is nice to see. I still think the majority of the time, they'll go safe. That's the only reason I'm not exactly thrilled with McDonnell and Nill's risk aversion.

There seems to be some really unrealistic takes about what drafting in the NHL looks like and how frequently teams are successful. You can not be thrilled with teams strategy to not prioritize skill while being honest that they are getting NHL players at a reasonable pace compared to other teams.

 

[BigG44]

I do want to focus on 2016 specifically and separately ... feel free to be upset about not drafting skill again. I feel the same way.

That said, it's pretty obvious that Tufte, Gardner, and Caamano are all possible NHLers. Caamano and Garnder have a chance to play significant games next year if the NHL plays 82 like they say they will. Tufte is a massive disappointment because you shouldn't be drafting energy players in the 1st round, but they did. His AHL season and how the coach down there felt seems pretty reasonable ... he's going to be a really athletic, large, fairly fast, defensive forward, and he'll probably contribute in a big way in the NHL in a Dickinson type role, minus the ability to pinch in at center.

Karlstrom is still a big unknown that has confirmed to Swedish media he'll come to NA in 2021-22. He's in the Caamano and Gardner mold though if he ever contributes.

I agree with being disappointed in 2016 because Dallas drafted size and guys that were safe, all-around players. Caamano probably has the most offensive upside, but it's highly unlikely he'll be a Top 6 scorer. This class optimizes not loving Dallas' strategy, but you can't simply pretend they acquired what seems to be 2 or 3 guys who are very close to contributing at the NHL level.

They're going to have to start taking a risk and drafting skill as a priority in the early rounds. I don't have a problem playing it a bit safer in the late rounds, but they need some skill as well.

 

[WhoahNow]

I'm not a McDonnell fan, and I'd be happy to see a change there. I doubt that though because Nill is loyal, and he happens to be the guy setting the tone for what to prioritize.

That said ... acting like you can evaluate 2019 picks and several other 1, 2, or 3 years after a draft is pretty silly. On top of that, most teams hit on 1 or 2 year guys a year ... or none. Dallas is falling within pretty normal ranges. It's reasonable and pretty common to not evaluate most picks (especially outside of the 1st round) for about 5 years. If they bust so hard to not get a contract ... sure right them off . That 2014 was a disaster.

The quality of their hits isn't great because they play it extremely safe most picks. Recently ... they've been a bit more accepting of offensive talent and skill with guys like Harley or a Robertson which is nice to see. I still think the majority of the time, they'll go safe. That's the only reason I'm not exactly thrilled with McDonnell and Nill's risk aversion.

There seems to be some really unrealistic takes about what drafting in the NHL looks like and how frequently teams are successful. You can not be thrilled with teams strategy to not prioritize skill while being honest that they are getting NHL players at a reasonable pace compared to other teams.

The only problem with saying you cant evaluate 1,2,3 year post draft players is that if you are drafted out of the chl you have 2 years to be signed or lose the rights, so they actually have to be evaluated. The 2017 & 2018 draft, the stars have already lost the rights to players because they weren't worth signing. Definitely a benefit drafting european players is you get that extra time to let them develop, but even the european players the stars have drafted, which players other than 1st/2nd round actually improved.

 

[BigG44]

There's not a problem saying that ... in fact I think the CHL is the reason most draft pundits seem to settle on 5 years. 2 years to sign ... 3 year ELC and waiver exemption. If you're not a regular at that point ... you're waiver fodder.

Like I said ... if you don't earn the contract ... bust. Douglas is the rare exception because of COVID ... but he still goes in the bust column. He could easily end up on another team this summer via the draft. Drafting from Europe does let you be more patient for sure though.

Again ... I'm not going to sit here talking about European players that haven't come to NA yet when you or I haven't seen them outside of a U20 tournament. Back and Peterson look the most promising ... again as more energy, bottom 6, defensive forwards. Talking about Sjolund would be insane. We have no idea. That's why you don't start looking at drafts for a few years.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Dallas just has drafted well. 2011 they took Oleksiak first round. Of course he went the long way around but now he's a big part of the team. 2012 they took Radek Faksa. He's a big part of the team. 2013 they took Dickinson and Nichushkin. One man's trash another man's treasure for Nichushkin in Colorado. But Dickinson has played a huge part in Dallas' success. 2015 they took Gurianov, Hintz. They're big parts of the team as well. That's of course, not to mention Miro Heiskanen or later round gems like Esa Lindell, John Klingberg. And some of these picks predated the Nill era, but I don't think the philosophy has changed, I think the reasoning was rather continuous.

I think you could easily look at those drafts and be like, oh why didn't we get Teuvo Teravainen instead of Radek Faksa? Instead of Jason Dickinson we could have had Jake Guentzel. Instead of Denis Gurianov we could have Jake Debrusk. Or Matt Barzal or Kyle Connor. Roope Hintz would have been nice but Anthony Cirelli would have been even nicer. And instead of Jamie Oleksiak, what if we took Nikita Kucherov. And it's not like those are bad players, those are good players. You could even look at Cale Makar in the upcoming years, and say "if only we took Makar", because I guarantee you that barring some unforeseen injury, he will score more points than Heiskanen over his career. At his current pace he will overtake Heiskanen mid-way through next season.

In a year or two, Ty Dellandrea will probably be making about 20 points a season as a checking-line center and who knows who will be lighting up the league at that point, Ty Smith? Grigori Denisenko? Ryan Merkley? But I think that's missing the point. Dallas has a way they want to play the game. They will draft to fit their vision of the game, regardless of who may be good on another team.

That's generous.

 

[BigG44]

I see Dickinson in the same mold as these guys. We're not very far off from talking about Dickinson in terms of him being replaced by a younger, cheaper guy on an ELC. Very likely one of these guys we've talked about.

Tufte and Dickinson have a ton in common in being first round picks that are really boring and a bit disappointing, but they end up adding value to the team on the PK and playing a role (potential for Tufte .. not there yet). Faksa separates himself from Dickinson because he is a true shutdown center that can win faceoffs. His defense is excellent as opposed to acceptable or very good. Dickinson can play center, he just isn't the whole package when it comes to faceoffs.

I don't dislike Dickinson, but I would not be surprised if he's traded before he signs another contract unless it remains under $2 million, which it could. Caamano, Gardner, or Tufte could be easy threats to take his jobs for much less money after next season.

 

[Kcb12345]

Dickinson imo will be eventually traded or taken in an expansion draft and have a Reilly Smith (lite) type breakout somewhere. I could see him ending up as a ~40 point guy one day even though hes already 25. I think in a different system and used differently he will be a guy that is capable of producing more. Decent hands, nice shot, great on the forecheck, smart player, etc.

I've always been a fan of his though so I suppose I'm biased. I just think he will be a late bloomer offensively if he ever gets a chance. No way he produces anywhere near that in Dallas though

 

[BigG44]

I like him too, but it's also not like he hasn't been given shots in Dallas. They've used him with top players as a defensively responsible guy for that line, similar to what's going on with Janmark right now. I like the guy a ton, and I hope he does break out like you're saying, but I don't think there's something I can point to that says Dallas didn't give him the opportunities, and he just needs that trust to breakout.

This coming season feels pretty big for him, but I think he's probably going to struggle to get offensive minutes. I agree he's probably traded. I don't think they'll lose him via expansion though. They can easily protect him right now. You know how stingy Nill is.

 

[Kcb12345]

I like him too, but it's also not like he hasn't been given shots in Dallas. They've used him with top players as a defensively responsible guy for that line, similar to what's going on with Janmark right now. I like the guy a ton, and I hope he does break out like you're saying, but I don't think there's something I can point to that says Dallas didn't give him the opportunities, and he just needs that trust to breakout.

This coming season feels pretty big for him, but I think he's probably going to struggle to get offensive minutes. I agree he's probably traded. I don't think they'll lose him via expansion though. They can easily protect him right now. You know how stingy Nill is.

What I mean by opportunities is powerplay time. Feels like Cogliano has had more PP time in his time as a Dallas Star than Dickinson has had in his career

 

[WhoahNow]

Dickinson, just seems like a total average player with slightly above average skating & IQ. I like him, but I don't see him breaking out personally. Although I realize reading through any of my posts I'm a pessimist about the Stars haha

 

[BigG44]

I don't know that Dickinson every really earned it though. I'm not going to claim I can remember the most common units 2 or 3 years ago, but who should come out for Dickinson between Gurianov, Hintz, Perry, or Faksa? I'm not thinking anyone. Dickinson is a 40% faceoff guy, and Faksa has been a decent net front presence guy who has been even better cleaning up in the post season.

That said, I will revise me thought about Dickinson getting a bigger offensive opportunity next year.

There's a pretty good chance that Dickinson could replace Janmark's role with Pavelski now that I think about it. I could see those 2 with either Robertson or Radulov. I think there's really something there Kiviranta-Hintz-Gurianov ... with Kiviranta in a similar role as the defensively responsible guy for that line. It'll be interesting to see what his offensive output looks like. He's never been a big scorer even in Europe. I think he's probably a 10-15 goal guy that if he hits his top potential might be 30 points or so ... maybe closer to 40.

Regardless ... that could be a big opportunity for Dickinson if he's ever going to score consistently. I don't see them not putting at least one solid offensive player with Pavs.

 

[Smelling Salt]

A year ago if you had asked me about the 2018 draft I was a little more hyped but Albin is harshing my buzz.

Dellandrea
Eriksson
Mascherin
Back

It's not bad. Mascherin had a season to forget after his good rookie season, Albin's head is in the clouds and Back is still a question mark. But on paper, this is pretty decent IMO.

 

[kabidjan18]

That's generous.

Is it really? He's 24/7 pressure on the puck whenever he's on the ice. Constantly hounding opposing puck-handlers, forcing premature or errant passes. He kills penalties. He blocks shots. He finishes his checks. Plays the hard minutes, plays the rough areas. I think he almost epitomizes what a Dallas Stars forward is. He's versatile, plays both center and wing. In game 4 he played over 19 minutes because Faksa was out so he took his center position, and then Hintz got hurt so he started double shifting Hintz's shift. And they kept the Golden Knights out of the net.

I see Dickinson in the same mold as these guys. We're not very far off from talking about Dickinson in terms of him being replaced by a younger, cheaper guy on an ELC. Very likely one of these guys we've talked about.

Tufte and Dickinson have a ton in common in being first round picks that are really boring and a bit disappointing, but they end up adding value to the team on the PK and playing a role (potential for Tufte .. not there yet). Faksa separates himself from Dickinson because he is a true shutdown center that can win faceoffs. His defense is excellent as opposed to acceptable or very good. Dickinson can play center, he just isn't the whole package when it comes to faceoffs.

I don't dislike Dickinson, but I would not be surprised if he's traded before he signs another contract unless it remains under $2 million, which it could. Caamano, Gardner, or Tufte could be easy threats to take his jobs for much less money after next season.

It will probably be around 2.5 million. That seems to be the going rate for a player of his job description.

I'm not clear why you would want him out though. Corey Perry is up this year. Cogliano is up next year. They will naturally come off the books. Dallas doesn't have serious cap problems. You could get a little bit of value for him on the market or you could just keep him at 500k more than what you seem to feel he should get and keep playing him. His value to the Dallas Stars is far higher than his value to other teams, and all Stars players have deflated scoring totals which in turn deflate their market values. You could trade him for something like a 2022 4th, who will probably never make the NHL, and if they did probably no earlier than 2025. But he brings a lot of positive value to the team, and the team is on a bit of a clock to win, not the tightest clock for sure but certainly Dickinson now is more value than a 4th rounder likely not coming in 2025 when Benn will be gone and Seguin will be on his last year.

 

[BigG44]

You're ignoring the most important cap decisions in those seasons or which Perry isn't even in the conversation.

That's not the point though. It didn't seem Dallas has cap concerns when they agreed to commit several more years at $3+ to Cogliano and $2+ to Comeau. It's a luxury you can sometimes afford, but for the most part, it's rare. Dallas now finds themselves with nearly $6 million committed to just TWO bottom six forwards. They're good players, but they now have cap problems this summer. They're not severe, but you are limited where you can retain (Khudobin) or upgrade your team. You don't overspend because it might seem like you have space in a few years. The cap situation constantly evolves.

Dickinson doesn't have special attributes. You can be a good player that can also be replaced by cheaper options. That sucks in a salary cap world, but it's true. Now to the players you ignored .... Heiskanen and Klingberg need contracts in 1 and 2 years. Gurianov and Hintz potentially in 3 years. You still need a major injection of skill, and because this is the draft thread ... you don't often draft it and end up paying those guys in free agency like Radulov and Pavs. Robertson who is an unknown will have a new contract in 2 years. You're not going to lose Rads and Pavs skill and not replace it.

Part of being the GM is saving money where it's possible. Dickinson is the classic example. We're not talking about if he helps the team. He does. We're talking about does he do anything that a Gardner, Cammano, Tufte, or some unknown at this moment undrafted rookie free agent can't do? That answer isn't a forgone conclusion for some maybe, but for me, at least today, that answer is no. He's not made himself indispensable.

 

[BigG44]

Albin Eriksson is now out for 4 to 6 weeks with a knee injury. FWIW ... this was reported Sept. 4th. It seems this year a ton of Swedish stories are behind paywalls, and it's harder to find the info.

FBK:s smäll: JVM-forwarden knäskadad - Hockeysverige

On Sept. 7th, the coach said it had been about a week, and Eriksson was the closest to returning of several injuries FBK sustained in +/- weeks. They're targeting mid-October for him. Sounds like some of the injuries prior to his gave him a shot at the roster, and they may give him a shot when he returns. No more mentions of transfer that I could find.

 

[BigG44]

It's really hard to find info this year on those Euro guys .... those paywalls are killers. I've not seen that in Sweden until now. I get it, but I'm not going to pay for something I have to Google Translate ... lol.

 

[kabidjan18]

It's not about what he can do that others can't do, it's about the degree to which he can do it against the degree that others can do it. Do the Stars bottom 6 do anything that say the Leafs or the Penguins or the Oilers don't do? Not really, no. The bottom 6 players on those teams are capable of blocking shots or marking opposing forwards or killing penalties. They just do those things less frequently and less efficiently. Dickinson has no unique skill, but he does the things he needs to do well. He can play any position, any line 2-4, and execute the system that the Stars play. I'm high on Caamano, I think with like 5-10 more pounds and just more defensive system training he could become a real good system player. Gardner and Tufte are they're promising, maybe slightly less agile than Dickinson, I think they'll be on the team someday in some capacity. And they need time to learn. Because defense is one of the more difficult aspects of the game to learn, because it's based on system rather than individual skill. It's not frequently the case that a kid on an ELC will be as good defensively as a veteran, and ELC's are so short that 2, 3 years later that kid is now also an RFA.

Don't need to look further than the other teams in the playoffs. Tampa pays 3C Yanni Gourde 5.2 mil. They traded a 1st round pick and Nolan Foote for bottom 6er Blake Coleman. They traded a 1st round pick for Barclay Goodrow. There's Cedric Paquette, who is significantly worse offensively than Dickinson despite being on a better offensive team. The Isles cap situation has been heavily discussed, but they're in the conference finals, they took Tampa to at least 6 games. They obviously paid big bucks to Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Komarov, Martin, and they traded prime picks for JG Pageau the 3C, like Gourde, also signed for 5 mil. Is it absolutely necessary? No. Sometimes you do get kids on the last year the ELC who can do all the functions and that's great. St. Louis won their cup last year with 4 of their bottom 6 players on their last year of ELC. All of them are getting paid much better now though. And I'm not suggesting that you throw Isles' type money at bottom 6 guys. But you shouldn't undervalue the bottom 6 either. The teams that are the most top-heavy teams in the league are out of the playoffs or didn't even make the playoffs.

Market value determines contracts. And maybe that rate isn't 2.5, maybe it's 2. He's not going to get any more or less than he deserves. Now if, say, Dallas was very successful. And teams started trying to copy-cat Dallas' style of hockey. And as a result the public perception of Dickinson rises and some team is willing to pay good assets for him, like the Blake Coleman deal, where when he signed his contract he was scoring less than Dickinson, but he improved his game and showed promise to be a solid upgrade to another team's bottom 6 and someone offered a first round pick and a top prospect. Or the Barclay Goodrow case in which Tampa felt he would also be a solid upgrade to their bottom 6 and their PK and they gave up a 1st for him. I'm not opposed to trading and replacing Dickinson.

But you have to get something for him. The bottom 6 is a very important part of the lineup. Dallas did not get to the Stanley Cup finals this year because of their top 6. Some bottom 6 players are better than other bottom 6 players just like some top 6 players are better than other top 6 players. Dickinson is a very good bottom 6 player, and for the foreseeable future a significant upgrade to other bottom 6 options. So I wouldn't just deal him for next to nothing in an attempt to cap dump. Because if the kid that replaces him scores a bit less, or gives up a few more goals, that could be the difference in a playoff round.

 

[BigG44]

The Bottom 6 can be very important, and your examples ... Coleman and Gourde ... among many others all bring some special characteristic that Dickinson lacks. Faksa belongs among those players you are discussing as well.

I never once made an argument that the Bottom 6 wasn't important. It is. Some of those guys like a Faksa on this team are going to be paid well which is why you save money in other locations. I'm not bashing Dickinson. I like the guy. You're not making a case though that he's in the same realm as these other guys though. Coleman is a 20 goal scorer. Pageau is in a completely different category as well. These are all great points about needing really good guys that may cost more.

I'm not convinced anyone is going to list Dickinson among these guys. He should be on Dallas' team next year, and I hope he does hit a new gear. It's not a shock though to say he's not separating himself from other guys on your list up there. He's not any of those players yet. You started an entirely different conversation ... an important one .. but Dickinson doesn't stack up against those players.

I'm pretty stunned at the number of 20 goal scorers you just threw out there talking about Dickinson. It's apples and oranges. Even Faksa doesn't stand up to those guys. He's simply an all around excellent shutdown C you can afford to spare the cash on. Again .. a role Dickinson doesn't fill. he's a winger/center hybrid that can fill in.

 

[LT]

Robertson replaces Perry, Kiviranta replaces Janmark. Seems simple enough to me. No other changes are needed unless too good of an opportunity to pass on comes up.

 

[kabidjan18]

You said it was bad that Dallas spent 5 million on 2 bottom six players. So I gave examples of teams spending 5 million on one bottom 6 player. You then said you don't undervalue the bottom 6. Fair enough, but that's the entire point of my argument. I was pointing out that what you seem to believe is a travesty is quite common. Was I suggesting Dickinson should get paid 5 million? No. You're upset that I mention those players in a sentence with Dickinson, but you didn't realize I mentioned those players in a sentence with each other. I just listed basically all the players in their bottom 6s. Paquette and Goodrow in a sentence with Gourde. Martin in a sentence with Clutterbuck in a sentence with Pageau. Is my point that all those players are identical? No. My point is that the bottom 6 is important, and teams commonly invest in making the bottom 6 important, which does not mean that they invest the same amount in each player in the bottom 6. Dickinson is more like some of them than others. But that's not the main point I was going for.

Also, this is the Dallas Stars. Call it what it is, one of the worst goal-scoring teams in the league, and also simultaneously a team that made it to the Stanley Cup finals. Points are not the end all be all of player identity. Players point totals are naturally going to be depressed on a team like the Stars. But that doesn't make the players inferior. And this has nothing to do with Dickinson. But I'd take Faksa over Pageau, and I'd take him over Gourde, and I'd take him over Kerfoot, and I'd take him over Kadri, and so on. He plays his role and he does it well. And I was devastated to lose him and amazed what Dickinson has done in his absence.

You're right, albeit I sense you say so bitterly, when you said that the Stars don't draft high end talent. I mean, I think the same of Dellandrea. He's 16th in league scoring this year, Dickinson was 23rd, but the OHL was much more stacked in 2015. I think he'll become another Dallas-style role player So there may need to be a couple moves down the line to secure top end talent. But I also want to caution against thinking that securing more top end talent, at the cost of playing more ELCs or cheaper bottom 6 options, is necessarily an upgrade. It can be, but being top heavier doesn't necessarily make a team better, and right now it almost seems to make some teams worse.