Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Sen sational, May 5, 2019.
I could go on all day about critical appraisal, but this is a line up thread so i'll stop here
Good call. DM me if you feel like it.
Yikes. I think there is one potential first line forward in this group. I might play Pageau with Anisimov to take the draws. They are not the latter's strong point. I can't wait to see Formenton here full-time, but some time in the AHL in a very offensive role would help.
Tkachuk - White - Brown
Duclair - Tierney - Batherson
Pageau - Anisimov - Ryan
Balcers - Ennis - Boedker
Chabot - Zaitsev
Brannstrom - Demelo
Wolanin - Hainsey
I gave my quick impression which was a range because I don't find he stands out one way or another. If you want more precision for somebody who doesn't stand out, yes, it will take more than a cursory look.
When you're singling out one attribute, which is fairly subjective in nature, it's never going to be obvious, particularly when this particular skill is one that a 4th liner can excel at, and a top line player can be poor at.
Wrt Tierney specifically, I don't find he makes crafty plays in the OZ, and I don't often say what a good read defensively. He doesn't make boneheaded plays and plays within his skill set, but like I said generally doesn't stand out imo.
Ennis would be a better fit in your top 6 than Brown. He plays the wing and can play some PP time productively.
Im surprised people here are saying Tierney has bad hockey IQ and vision. IMO that’s all he has going for him. He isn’t a great skater and seems kind of weak, plus he has a weak shot. I do see him making a lot of smart plays though and in general uses his line mates well.
Agreed, he's a good passer and anticipates the play well.
Screams Florida Panthers expansion team. Solid but unspectacular. And yet it was a team coached to bore you and they were able to surprise. You never know, but clearly a lottery pick over the next two years would be best.
Somehow stink enough to get lotto picks but also improve...
On-ice shooting %.. Do they keep stats in how they do in the driveway now?
He struck me as pretty average. I don't think he wows with anything IQ or vision wise. There are a number of C's that finished with less points ( that I think are better overall players with higher IQ and vision.) Assists <> Higher IQ and vision imo....He finished with more assists than Joe Thornton and Ryan Getzlaf but he's in neither of their leagues wrt IQ and vision ; and that is obvious by watching him A few other guys who finished below him in points that I think have better IQ and vision are; Paul Stastny, Nico Hischier, Colin White, Artem Anisimov, Charlie Coyle, Robert Thomas, Jeff Carter, Mikko Koivu...
IMO Average overall , Below Average 2C.
Regarding on-ice shooting percentage, I can see you're making a joke, but I'm not sure if that implies you're not familiar with the stat? It's a pretty common and useful predictive measure.
As for the rest of your post, I dunno, seems like a more or less reasonable analysis. Equating assists to hockey IQ/vision, even roughly, seems overly simplistic to me. Conflating hockey IQ and vision does too but everybody does that so whatever.
If giveaway stats were more reliable then I would say assists:giveaway ratio would be a nice start, but this is not the case. Honestly I'm at a loss for trying to think of good ways to statistically estimate hockey IQ. If anybody has good ideas please let me know; I'm interested now.
Shooting percentage is what I am familiar with. Even the abbreviated form (sh%) or (s%). the expanded form of "on ice shooting percentage" is what I was commenting on. Just so you know, On ice is redundant... People understand Shooting % as is. So yah I was making an attempt at humor with the driveway comment.
Measuring hockey IQ statistically .. probably something to come with more data . How to measure situational awareness. How to measure decision making.. (some of that could be take away give away) but scoring chances would be a good one for a shooter as a measure to get to that spot... scoring chances created would be a good one for a passer.. scoring chances prevented could be good as well for anyone. With or without you stats could be part of it as well... Maybe some of the advanced stats gurus can weigh in on it... It think its more of a model than one slice of stats. I am not sure how the WAR type measures would fit in or could be rationalized to translate to a measure of hockey IQ more specifically. A guy like Bob Gainey never lit up the scoring leader board but I imagine his hockey IQ was pretty solid.
Dude, in my post I said Tierney's individual shooting% was below his career average but on-ice shooting% was above career average. They are very different things.
On-ice shooting% is the team's shooting% when the given player is on the ice. While individual shooting% regression is useful for predicting future goal-scoring, on-ice shooting% is useful for predicting future total offense and when combined with on-ice SVP I believe is useful for predicting RelESGF% (stat-heads correct me if I'm wrong there).
And I agree with the rest of your post here.
I understand now, sorry my bad. I misread / misunderstood what you were saying. Good observation.
Edit: It didn't click. I thought I had seen it. They use that to calculate PDO which I looked into a while back. I fully admit I am not completely fluid in advanced stat metrics as I could be. I took a bit of an interest but not enough to make it really stick.
I think this is the roster, but not necessarily the lineup positions, we shall see for the start of the season including C. Brown, not L.Brown; however I think Brannstrom will be in Belleville as he needs further development before playing at the NHL level. Davidson has a chance to beat out Balcers or Paul.
I hope just once we see
C. Brown/C. White/L. Brown
We can call it the oreo line.
I'm sure Ennis will see top 6 minutes, but I like the thought of Connor Brown (not Logan) playing wing with Tkachuk. They would bring the proverbial jam.
Brown has underrated vision (just take a look at his ahl+junior numbers) and is a good finisher within the hash marks. You wont see him going for long range shots but he is a high IQ player who can read the game well. Recent podcast or something said the leafs didnt want to deal Brown but had to for cap reasons.
Expect to see him start off extremely defensively inclined, it was drilled into his head by Babcock. I would put him with a center who likes to carry the puck and shoot. Brown is pretty quick and versatile in general.
He will put up way better offensive numbers than last year. If he gets PP times I could pretty easily see 20/20 if he gets some confidence back after being misused as a checker energy guy the last 2 years.
Edit: the one thing brown has never had is consistent linemates. Interested to see how he performs if he is given time to develop a little chemistry
Oreos are black. I would prefer to call it the Jos Louis line.
"Dollarama Brand Cookie Sandwich Line"
On ice shooting percentage for a centre is quite meaningful. They are supposed to be puck distributors so having a good on ice shooting percentage would or could indicate he is distributing the puck to guys in places to score. When he played 3c minutes and limited pp time in SJ that kind of stat wouldnt look great constantly paired with bottom line muckers that can't score anyway.
Not sarcasm here, I legit like this analytical tool, and intend to add it to my toolbox: "whether or not I often say to myself about the player 'what a good read'" Just making a note of how often the guy makes distinguishably really good reads and not just the acceptable one.
One thing I notice about watching defenders try to defend against the elite offensive players - and I notice it myself playing Chel against the really good players - often you do nothing wrong, but the puck ends up in the back of the net regardless. There are situations where it takes next-level thinking to stop the Kanes and Panarins of the world.
It is obvious that offense is all about deception, but it really clicked for me in what way defense is all about deception from that one Torts bit about learning to respect the league, cus you can have all the skill in the world and you know how to take junior and minor league defenders out for a stroll, but the Keiths and the Suters of the world are licking their chops at these kids. They know how to bait them into thinking they've got a great play set up, and then BAM. Transition offense.
Anyways, on Tierney, I feel like we're seeing the same thing, but to me it is evidence of strong hockey IQ. Maybe not great, but he recognizes his skill level and the skill level of his linemates. And as I said, in the offensive zone he is generally more interested in just maintaining OZ possession than on creating scoring chances.
From what I recall of the times he was playing with Stone and Tkachuk, he was pretty good about just getting them the puck and putting himself in decent spots. His couple goals with those guys came from rebounds or deflections - he was never the intended finisher, obviously.
I'm with this guy. Brown is a curious one to me. Ridiculous numbers in junior and AHL. A kid who puts up AHL numbers like he did that early is usually a really good indicator of NHL success. Must be something wrong with his defensive game / play away from the puck.
But regardless, he had 20 NHL goals as a rookie when he was counted on for offense by a weak team at the time, so now entering his prime, and again being used in an offensive role, I think a lot of people might be surprised by what Brown does this year.
His defensive game is excellent and very good on the pk
We’ve been missing guys like Brown in this lineup, competitive guys who play a team game and play to win. If he’s on a line with Pageau it’ll be a huge energy boost for the lineup.
More excited to see Brown then al ost any other player. I’m not expecting more than 20 goals but if he gets 20 that’ll be a huge win for Ottawa
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