Injury Report: 2019-2020 Injury Report

[bluesfan94]

We have a few in the system who might become NHLers, but none look like potential world beaters aside from another early 2nd in Kyrou.

I don't even think we have traded away any non firsts that became big contributors. Lehtera, Jaskin, Reaves and Edmundson are really the most only notable non-first round skaters we have drafted over the past 15 years not listed above. Like 9 of our 80+ skater picks became regular NHLers and only Parayko would be considered a strong top 4/6 option. Given all the picks we have had in that time, that's not a good percentage to count on to say we can trade away our promising prospects and high-round picks willy-nilly for a regular season stop-gap that's a one year rental.

I mean, potential world beater, perhaps not, but at the same time, I think there are decent expectations for Mikkola and Husso.

Should include Carrier and Bishop in that list. And if you extend it one more year, Polak, Soderberg, and Nikitin. There are also a handful of guys who've played some. Berra, Peluso, Warsofsky, etc.

This is excellent point, Parayko, Binnington, and Blais are only guys we have drafted after 2nd round in past decade that have contributed at all.

If "at all" is your standard, it's a little harsh to not include MacEachern and Lindbohm.

 

[Blueston]

I mean, potential world beater, perhaps not, but at the same time, I think there are decent expectations for Mikkola and Husso.

Should include Carrier and Bishop in that list. And if you extend it one more year, Polak, Soderberg, and Nikitin. There are also a handful of guys who've played some. Berra, Peluso, Warsofsky, etc.

If "at all" is your standard, it's a little harsh to not include MacEachern and Lindbohm.

A handful of games as replacement level player doesn't move the needle. Guys like that are always available for basically nothing. Mac Mac could I suppose still rise above that, but he looks like poor man's Chris Porter at this point.

 

[Majorityof1]

I mean, potential world beater, perhaps not, but at the same time, I think there are decent expectations for Mikkola and Husso.

Should include Carrier and Bishop in that list. And if you extend it one more year, Polak, Soderberg, and Nikitin. There are also a handful of guys who've played some. Berra, Peluso, Warsofsky, etc.

If "at all" is your standard, it's a little harsh to not include MacEachern and Lindbohm.

I was focusing only on skaters, hence no Bishop, Binnington, etc. I don't think adding Polak, Nikitin, etc changes my point to much. We talk about our great late round steals, but that is mostly fueled by Parayko and hype for some guys in the system that don't pan out (e.g.Walman) . Most of our current team was made with first rounders and trades/free agent signings. Trading away our firsts is giving away 8 years of control on a potential, Thomas, Schwartz, Tarasenko calibre player for a one year rental we cannot re-sign. It would be great to have a playoff run with Hall and a suddenly healthy Tarasenko; however, that is no guarantee of a cup as seemingly slam dunk rentals have faltered on their new team. What is the cost given the potential futures we'd have to give up of that one shot? I mean if we can get Hall for a 1st and a B/C level prospect, sure. It will most likely cost Kryou + 1st + something else. And that is giving away too many shots at the apple on a cost-controlled star to justify one shot at another cup, IF Tarasenko comes back 100% and IF Hall fits in.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I was focusing only on skaters, hence no Bishop, Binnington, etc. I don't think adding Polak, Nikitin, etc changes my point to much. We talk about our great late round steals, but that is mostly fueled by Parayko and hype for some huy in the system that doesn't pan out (e.g.Walman) . Most of our current team was made with first rounders and trades/free agent signings. Trading away our firsts is giving away 8 years of control on a potential, Thomas, Schwartz, Tarasenko calibre player for a one year rental we cannot re-sign. It would be great to have a playoff run with Hall and a suddenly healthy Tarasenko; however, that is no guarantee of a cup as seemingly slam dunk rentals have faltered on their new team. What is the cost given the potential futures we'd have to give up of that one shot? I mean if we can get Hall for a 1st and a B/C level prospect, sure. It will most likely cost Kryou + 1st + something else. And that is giving away too many shots at the apple on a cost-controlled star to justify one shot at another cup, IF Tarasenko comes back 100% and IF Hall fits in.

All draft picks are bets on potential. First round picks have higher potential, but there are outliers on both sides (busts and late round bloomers). I think trading those potentials (and the 8 years of control) is fine if your team is reasonably confident in their forecasting abilities after the draft. Dealing failing prospects while their potential is still of value to someone else is a good way to recoup some value.

I think the team did this with Runblad. It appears they did this with Thompson. I suspect this will end up being the case with Bokk. They failed to do it with Schmaltz or Cole, although Cole is a special case where I think the team is at fault for his usage. He’s carved out a decent career. You could even argue they did this with EJ.

I don’t have any insights about Kyrou’s future, but if the team have an asset that they’re souring on, I would certainly support trading him and getting a piece with value, including a rental. I suspect Kyrou is in the opposite category, and I think Kostin is too. But trading former 1sts and 2nds is just fine, based on the team evaluation of their development. I should also point out that if you are going to do this, you have to pull the trigger before everyone is drawing the same conclusion, while they still hold sufficient value.

 

[Brian39]

I think the expectation for guys picked in the 3rd round and beyond needs to be discussed a bit here.

In the 2017/18 season, there were 678 skaters who played 15 or more NHL games. There were 227 total guys who were drafted in rounds 3-7. That's about a third of the league and this is with the barrier for entry being just 15 games in a season and not half the season. There is also not any criteria for their actual contributions or value above replacement.

https://i.imgur.com/njFWSeV_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

A review of all draft picks between 2000 and 2009 found that just 30% of 3rd round picks go on to play 50+ career NHL games. That number goes down to 20% or less in rounds 4+. So these mid-late round picks who make the league but don't move the needle are still beating pretty long odds. The odds of getting an impact player in rounds 3+ are very slim.

https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

[Brian39]

I'm making a separate post with my opinion and leaving the last post as just facts.

I'm happy with our mid round drafting ability, but agree that we shouldn't make moves assuming we can build a good prospect pool largely with mid round picks. With that said, our 2nd round drafting has been good and probably goes a bit unappreciated when we talk about our ability to draft well.

The jury is still out on Kyrou, but he is looking like a good pick at #35 in 2016. Vince Dunn at #56 in 2015 was a huge success. Even if what we currently see is his absolute ceiling, that was a great pick. Barby at #33 in 2014 was a decent pick. He hasn't hit the upside we hoped for, but he has adjusted his game to become a good bottom 6 forward with some scoring touch. Ed and Jaskin were both good mid-2nd round picks in 2011.

We didn't have a 2nd rounder in 2017 and it is still waaaaay to early to judge 2nd round picks form 2018 and 2019. But the 6 years leading up to that saw a lot of success in the 2nd round.

At the end of the day, 3 of our 7 D men on a Cup winning team were guys we drafted in rounds 2 or 3. That's very impressive, especially since all 3 played large roles and one of them played a massive role. Our blue line was top 5 in hockey last year and for about 75% of the year half of the group were guys we picked outside the 1st round. That's a pretty big feather in the cap of the scouting staff.

 

[parliamentlite]

Not necessarily advocating for a trade, but if the Blues go that route there are options beyond Hall. I'll nominate Tyler Toffoli, who is 27 with an expiring contract at a $4.6 million cap hit. The Kings have sat him for the last two games, but he's been their leader in xG per 60 minutes this year. He also grades out very favorably on both sides of the ice in isolated impact:

 

[GoBluz24]

So Joe Vitale was just on NHL Radio and said Steen had joined some of the team in the hotel bar to celebrate Pang's fiist grandchild. Went on to say that it is an ankle injury Steen sustained but not as bad as they originally thought. But that's all he said.

 

[WeWentBlues]

So Joe Vitale was just on NHL Radio and said Steen had joined some of the team in the hotel bar to celebrate Pang's fiist grandchild. Went on to say that it is an ankle injury Steen sustained but not as bad as they originally thought. But that's all he said.

Glad it's not the knee based on this second-hand information. That was my initial reaction.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

So Joe Vitale was just on NHL Radio and said Steen had joined some of the team in the hotel bar to celebrate Pang's fiist grandchild. Went on to say that it is an ankle injury Steen sustained but not as bad as they originally thought. But that's all he said.

Great news. He could still be out a few weeks with an ankle sprain, but sounds like nothing structural must be concerned.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Phew. Looked like a torn ACL to me when it happened. Still wanna see us call up one of the kids though.

 

[TheGoldenGod]

 

[Blueston]

That they are talking in weeks rather than months I think counts as good news considering how bad it looked last night.

 

[tomin]

Terrible but great news. Take it easy Steener, see you around Christmas PK'n like your old self.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Steen placed on injured reserve with high-ankle sprain
Sent with @Nhl

I want to say good news because I thought he blew out his knee. But you never know if it will take 4 weeks or 4 months.

 

[TheDizee]

could be worse

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Unlike some, I like having Steen out there. He keeps the young kids honest and on task.

 

[Ranksu]

 

[Vladys Gumption]

My guess is that Walker or Poganski will get first crack but as soon as Kyrou is ready he’s up.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

My guess is that Walker or Pogaanski will get first crack but as soon as Kyrou is ready he’s up.

I think you’re right, but I hope they give Kostin his first chance next to Bozak and Blais until Kyrou is ready. If he sticks, you can finally bench Sanford.

 

[Brian39]

Unlike some, I like having Steen out there. He keeps the young kids honest and on task.

Agreed. My only issue with Steen is the cap hit he carries. He's still a damn good bottom 6 player who is by all accounts very well respected in the locker room. He makes way more than you want to pay a guy in that role, but that doesn't mean he isn't damn good in that role.

The bottom 6 is worse when he is hurt. Hopefully we truly are closer to "weeks" than "months" before a return.

 

[execwrite1]

Could have been a lot worse. Plenty of time to heal up properly - no need to rush back.

The organization depth will really come in handy now. Some kids are going to get a shot to earn their Bluenotes.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

4 weeks seems fairly optimistic for a high ankle sprain, aren't those generally 6-8 weeks?

 

[jimmythemick]

4 weeks seems fairly optimistic for a high ankle sprain, aren't those generally 6-8 weeks?

6 weeks- 3 months was the common answer when I searched it online earlier. I guess they are being optimistic but I would assume it will be longer when they reevaluate him in 4 weeks.

 

[67Blues]

I've heard that on some high ankle sprains, it would be quicker to get back if you just broke it. Don't know if that is true, but from my understanding, high ankle sprains are the worst to get back 100%.