2019-20 General Lightning Discussion - Part 2: Charted Territory

[bov]

None of them? Who would we replace them all with?

Not saying it's likely at all, just that it wouldn't shock me. I think Joseph will be pushing after this season's disappointing start. Then you'll have the likes of Raddysh, Foote, maybe a dark horse (Colton, ABB etc) competing. Between now and the beginning of the 2020-2021 season, I can see at least one of the previously mentioned players (i.e. Verhaeghe/Volkov) being involved in a trade, potentially for an upgrade this playoffs.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Not saying it's likely at all, just that it wouldn't shock me. I think Joseph will be pushing after this season's disappointing start. Then you'll have the likes of Raddysh, Foote, maybe a dark horse (Colton, ABB etc) competing. Between now and the beginning of the 2020-2021 season, I can see at least one of the previously mentioned players (i.e. Verhaeghe/Volkov) being involved in a trade, potentially for an upgrade this playoffs.

We are going to be running 4 or 5 kids making under 1M in the lineup next season. We can't have them all being rookies (ABB,RaddyshColton,Foote) so guys like Verheaghe and Volkov will be needed as they have some experience. I expect Joseph to be back too so you got some cheap experience in those three then you can add one or two rookies.

 

[bov]

We are going to be running 4 or 5 kids making under 1M in the lineup next season. We can't have them all being rookies (ABB,RaddyshColton,Foote) so guys like Verheaghe and Volkov will be needed as they have some experience. I expect Joseph to be back too so you got some cheap experience in those three then you can add one or two rookies.

They wouldn't all be rookies. I'm expecting we make at least one NHL roster addition via trade before the beginning of next season, so that would be one spot taken up (unless it's strictly a playoff rental). Then you have free agency, where again I'd think it's safe to assume at least one player is added, even if it's only a depth guy. Assuming Joseph figures things out, that's 3 of 4 replacements right there without even dipping into the rookie pool (in this very hypothetical scenario).

 

[HoseEmDown]

They wouldn't all be rookies. I'm expecting we make at least one NHL roster addition via trade before the beginning of next season, so that would be one spot taken up (unless it's strictly a playoff rental). Then you have free agency, where again I'd think it's safe to assume at least one player is added, even if it's only a depth guy. Assuming Joseph figures things out, that's 3 of 4 replacements right there without even dipping into the rookie pool (in this very hypothetical scenario).

Who are we going to trade for that's going to be making around 1M that's any different than Volkov or Verheaghe? If we dip into free agency it's going to be for someone cheap and we could get another Maroon or we could get another Condra. I rather bring back Verheaghe who we can probably expect 20 points or so from, Volkov 15-20 with a decent all around game then someone new we don't know what we're getting. The same with Rutta as I rather pay him 1.5 than go the free agent route because we know what Rutta can do in the system.

 

[Hoek]

Boom. Bruins lose, giving us another game at hand to cash in on. We're solidly in the race to win the Atlantic now. I know it's not worth much, but it's worth home ice vs the Bruins if we meet them, which gives us more leverage on their big line.

Yeah it's starting to look like we're gonna catch them. If we win the division I hope we don't run away with it. Keep us on our toes.

 

[Hint1k]

the money is a little low for sergachev and cirelli it’s probably going to be about a million higher each or another 500 k per year each

Ok, let's say
Cirelli = 4M
Sergachev = 5M
Cernak = 3M
Total = 12M

1) Next year signed contracts = 73.4M
2) Minus Killorn = 4.4M
3) Minus Paquette = 1.6M
3) Plus Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak = 12M
Total = 79.4M

Plus one more D-man:
C.Foote = 1M

Plus 5 more forwards:
Verhaeghe = 1M
Stephens = 1M
N.Foote = 1M
Volkov = 1M
Joseph = 1M

Total 20 contracts ~85M vs ~85M (expected salary cap)

Out: Sattenkirk, Maroon, Rutta, Killorn, Paquette

 

[bov]

Who are we going to trade for that's going to be making around 1M that's any different than Volkov or Verheaghe? If we dip into free agency it's going to be for someone cheap and we could get another Maroon or we could get another Condra. I rather bring back Verheaghe who we can probably expect 20 points or so from, Volkov 15-20 with a decent all around game then someone new we don't know what we're getting. The same with Rutta as I rather pay him 1.5 than go the free agent route because we know what Rutta can do in the system.

My general point is that I do not expect all four of the aforementioned players (Rutta/Volkov/Verhaeghe/Gourde) to be with the team next season, and replacements wouldn't be that hard to find.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Ok, let's say
2) Minus Killorn = 4.4M

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Verhaeghe looks much better now, no reason why he shouldn't stay with the team

 

[LightningStrikes]

Let’s face it our bottom-six will be crap starting next season.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Let’s face it our bottom-six will be crap starting next season.

I mean Verheaghe and Stephens will be a year more experienced so that should help. Paquette and Gourde could potentially be back as well. Killorn wasn't in the bottom 6 all year but if he's gone that is a big loss I agree. As for Maroon we don't have a replacement for him but we have kids who play much faster who could produce similar to him. So if Gourde can get back to his best with the growth of Verheaghe, Stephens and one of Joseph/Volkov we shouldn't be too bad.

 

[These Are The Days]

Maroon will play for cheap. He has everywhere he's gone and if he's willing to stick around for like $950k we need to do it. He's not that great but teams aren't taking liberties with us anymore with him out there. If we're just gonna ice a rookie who may be better off in the AHL at the same cost I would much rather just spend that money on Maroon coming back.

 

[These Are The Days]

We really.... REALLY need the cap to go up to $84 million



Trade -> Paquette (in offseason) Joseph (for prior Kreider trade)

Killorn Stamkos Kucherov
(4.45M) (8.5M) (9.5M)
Palat Point Johnson
(5.3M) (6.75M) (5.0M)
Gourde Cirelli Foote***
(5.16M) (3.0M) (925K)
Verhaeghe Stephens Maroon
(950K) (950K) (950K)

Hedman Sergachev
(7.87M) (3.25M)
McDonagh Cernak
(6.75M) (1.25M)
Coburn Foote
(1.7M) (925K)

Vasilevskiy
(9.5M)
McEilhenny
(1.3M)


***- Assuming he beats Volkov in camp

$84 million cap




That ain't a bad lineup boys

 

[Todd1a]

What do you think they each get? Sergachev I can see asking for more but it won't be more than 5M. That's what Werenski got on a 3 year bridge with similar to better numbers. Cirelli is a lot harder to find a comparable.

Ya I think Sergachev gets 3 years 5 avv per year cirell I think get 3 years 4.5 avv per year

 

[HoseEmDown]

We really.... REALLY need the cap to go up to $84 million



Trade -> Paquette (in offseason) Joseph (for prior Kreider trade)

Killorn Stamkos Kucherov
(4.45M) (8.5M) (9.5M)
Palat Point Johnson
(5.3M) (6.75M) (5.0M)
Gourde Cirelli Foote***
(5.16M) (3.0M) (925K)
Verhaeghe Stephens Maroon
(950K) (950K) (950K)

Hedman Sergachev
(7.87M) (3.25M)
McDonagh Cernak
(6.75M) (1.25M)
Coburn Foote
(1.7M) (925K)

Vasilevskiy
(9.5M)
McEilhenny
(1.3M)


***- Assuming he beats Volkov in camp

$84 million cap




That ain't a bad lineup boys

Sergachev and Cernak at a combined 4.5M, not gonna happen. Maybe that's Sergachev alone. I agree we can trade Paquette and have Stephens take that spot for roughly half the price. But we really need to move one of Gourde, Johnson, Palat or Killorn in that order.

 

[Sky04]

Sergachev and Cernak at a combined 4.5M, not gonna happen. Maybe that's Sergachev alone. I agree we can trade Paquette and have Stephens take that spot for roughly half the price. But we really need to move one of Gourde, Johnson, Palat or Killorn in that order.

If only there was a team in the league that has an affinity for small french forwards....

 

[HoseEmDown]

Ya I think Sergachev gets 3 years 5 avv per year cirell I think get 3 years 4.5 avv per year

I can see the Sergachev deal since that's what Werenski got but I think we can get him for 500k - 1M less because of taxes and chance to win by taking less right now. I love Cirelli but I'm not doing 4.5 for 3 years on him. If we are going that high AAV it should be like 6 years, 3 years the max should be 3.33 like Johnson got. Johnson during his ELC had better AHL numbers and so far a better NHL season. Cirelli will have played more NHL games though. Vince Trocheck got 4.75 on a 6 year deal after his ELC with his last year scoring 53 points, he showed he was a 2C which Cirelli is slowly doing, so if he wants that money he takes more years, if he wants a bridge it needs to come down a lot.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

i think we move coby and shatty resigns in a surprisingly low team friendly couple year deal.... i think volkov will absolutely make team next year

i think tyjo is moved over killer .... i think stephens never leaves again moving forward

id say verhaegh and joseph still got a lot to prove

as far as cernak cirelli and sergy go will be 4-5 milly and 3 milly deals as stated

 

[HoseEmDown]

If only there was a team in the league that has an affinity for small french forwards....

I can see them interested but they'll want to dump Byron on us in a deal. Saves 1.76 off the cap, we would then need to try to flip Byron if possible.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

We've got to keep Cirelli, no question, long term. This kid is just crazy effective on both end of the ice, he could become a special player.

 

[Sky04]

I can see them interested but they'll want to dump Byron on us in a deal. Saves 1.76 off the cap, we would then need to try to flip Byron if possible.

He doesn't have any movement clause so it shouldn't be that difficult, I can't see Gourde waiving unless it's to Montreal.

 

[HoseEmDown]

He doesn't have any movement clause so it shouldn't be that difficult, I can't see Gourde waiving unless it's to Montreal.

Not sure who's going to want a 31 year old bottom 6 player making 3.4 for the next 3 years. We should be able to move him but we might have to take some salary back or add a mid round pick or prospect to move him. Even a Gourde for Byron deal straight up might not be appealing to Montreal because of the extra money and years that Gourde has. Especially if Gourde is a sub 40 point player.

 

[These Are The Days]

Sergachev and Cernak at a combined 4.5M, not gonna happen. Maybe that's Sergachev alone. I agree we can trade Paquette and have Stephens take that spot for roughly half the price. But we really need to move one of Gourde, Johnson, Palat or Killorn in that order.

You're probably right about $4.5 million for Sergachev alone. There is a lot of wishful thinking on my end to be sure. I agree with your ordering too. The only thing I can really be sure of is that it's going to be a lot better if we don't have a redux of last off-season and no one has any idea of what the cap is til after the draft

 

[DFC]

I still think you guys are drinking way too much of the Killer Kool Aid. This big season doesn't erase the rest of his career. Players go through ups and downs, and he's way, way, way up right now. Not only do we have to trade him in the off-season, but it might be for the best, because he's going to get a return that's twice what he's actually worth.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I still think you guys are drinking way too much of the Killer Kool Aid. This big season doesn't erase the rest of his career. Players go through ups and downs, and he's way, way, way up right now. Not only do we have to trade him in the off-season, but it might be for the best, because he's going to get a return that's twice what he's actually worth.

Even if this is just a career year and he goes back to his norm, his norm is much better than the others. He doesn't have the highs of the others he's just the most consistent, healthiest and best all around. He also is the cheapest and only would have 3 years left while Johnson with 4 and Gourde 5.