2019-20 Vezina thread

[Master P]

 

[The Macho King]

I agree with all of this. I think Rask will get enough games to get a nomination (if he keeps up his numbers) but lack of games played will keep him from winning even though he's been the best goaltender this season IMO. If the Jets make the playoffs I feel like Helleybuck should get a nod for the Hart at this point.

As more and more teams turn more towards a 55/30ish split it will be interesting to see how Vezina voting follows. Will guys who play a ton of games but put up above average stats be favored over guys with less games but great stats?

There have been periods of platoon goaltending in the past (most of the 80s if I recall) - probably worth a study to see what impact it may have (also for some of those years the Vezina was basically the Jennings so you'd have to look at the AS voting which is done by the media and not the GMs so... there may be some questionable data in there).

 

[deakka]

Not nearly enough talk about Jarry. Its triggering that ppl list 7 goalies and Jarry not being one of them.

1st in save %
2nd in GAA

 

[Daximus]

Not nearly enough talk about Jarry. Its triggering that ppl list 7 goalies and Jarry not being one of them.

1st in save %
2nd in GAA

His starts will likely be to low for the voters.

 

[JoVel]

His starts will likely be to low for the voters.

Yeah you're not winning the Vezina by having less GP than your backup.

 

[Daximus]

I may be a bit biased but Helle should be a finalist.

2nd in Starts.
2nd in Wins.
Over 200 more shots against and saves then any other nominee.
2nd in total minutes.

Hes pretty much carrying the Jets this year. And facing a much tougher work load than any other goalie outside of maybe Price.

 

[Trap Jesus]

The top 3 right now (in no particular order) are definitely:

Hellebuyck
Rask
Vasilevskiy

I'd personally give it to Hellebuyck.

Bishop, Jarry and Markstrom have an outside shot.

 

[Emerz]

Rask/Vasi/Hellebuyck/Bishop for me, probably in that order as well.

 

[Caeldan]

Taking into account that Vezina winners need to be on track for over 50 games started to win, that puts the top three being Bishop, Vasi, Hellebuyck with Rask right on the edge. Jarry I don't think will get enough starts to have anything other than a chance at hitting 3rd. Hellebuyck could lose out if the Jets miss the playoffs despite him.

So really it seems to be Vasi way out on top, with Bishop and Rask fighting for second depending on what the GMs favour this year.

 

[Emerz]

Rask hasn't let in more than 2 goals in a game since December.

8 goals against in his past 7 games.

 

[Pay Carl]

Taking into account that Vezina winners need to be on track for over 50 games started to win, that puts the top three being Bishop, Vasi, Hellebuyck with Rask right on the edge. Jarry I don't think will get enough starts to have anything other than a chance at hitting 3rd. Hellebuyck could lose out if the Jets miss the playoffs despite him.

So really it seems to be Vasi way out on top, with Bishop and Rask fighting for second depending on what the GMs favour this year.

please explain how Vasi is way out in front?

Rask will get 50 starts. Is playing well now, I see no reason he won’t still lead the league in GAA and Sv% which he does currently

I pointed out in another thread the Vez has gone to the goalie with the best save percentage and over 50 starts every year since the most recent lockout except one year. I don’t see Vasi getting it if Rask has 50 starts and 10 points better in SV% and .35 better GAA

 

[The Laukomotive]

please explain how Vasi is way out in front?

Rask will get 50 starts. Is playing well now, I see no reason he won’t still lead the league in GAA and Sv% which he does currently

I pointed out in another thread the Vez has gone to the goalie with the best save percentage and over 50 starts every year since the most recent lockout except one year. I don’t see Vasi getting it if Rask has 50 starts and 10 points better in SV% and .35 better GAA

Barring any injuries to Halak, Rask will get 50 starts at most. Likely around 47 starts.

 

[Pay Carl]

Barring any injuries to Halak, Rask will get 50 starts at most. Likely around 47 starts.

I think 16 starts in 21 games left is pretty seasonable especially because Cassidy has been riding him a bit more and he’s been on fire

also only 3 back to backs the rest of the year

 

[Caeldan]

please explain how Vasi is way out in front?

Rask will get 50 starts. Is playing well now, I see no reason he won’t still lead the league in GAA and Sv% which he does currently

I pointed out in another thread the Vez has gone to the goalie with the best save percentage and over 50 starts every year since the most recent lockout except one year. I don’t see Vasi getting it if Rask has 50 starts and 10 points better in SV% and .35 better GAA

Well for Rask vs Vasi...

Vasi is on pace for 60 starts and 44 wins.
Rask is on pace for 46 starts and 30 wins. Even if he got 50 starts and won those 4 extra games, he's still a full 10 wins behind Vasi.

40+ win seasons are pretty much money in the bank when it comes to Vezina voting. And outside of last year where there wasn't really any workhorse goalie who stood out (outside of Vasi who missed games due to injury but still managed to at least get to 52 games), you pretty much have to have 55 games played to even finish top 3.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Well for Rask vs Vasi...

Vasi is on pace for 60 starts and 44 wins.
Rask is on pace for 46 starts and 30 wins. Even if he got 50 starts and won those 4 extra games, he's still a full 10 wins behind Vasi.

40+ win seasons are pretty much money in the bank when it comes to Vezina voting. And outside of last year where there wasn't really any workhorse goalie who stood out (outside of Vasi who missed games due to injury but still managed to at least get to 52 games), you pretty much have to have 55 games played to even finish top 3.

Rask has a massive gap for save % though. Voters look at different things, but as long as Rask gets ~45+ starts he'll be in the race.

 

[Caeldan]

Rask has a massive gap for save % though. Voters look at different things, but as long as Rask gets ~45+ starts he'll be in the race.

To me, if you only play half the games for your team... you haven't played enough of the games in the regular season to be considered the best goalie in the league. Every year we have someone make a case based on sv%/gaa but they don't have the added pressure of having to be on their game every night. There's a reason why we filter stats based on games/minutes played. A bit of good luck/streakiness and a bit of low pressure play and you can see stats improve. To me the same principle applies to the awards voting and historically that opinion is backed up.

 

[Trap Jesus]

To me, if you only play half the games for your team... you haven't played enough of the games in the regular season to be considered the best goalie in the league. Every year we have someone make a case based on sv%/gaa but they don't have the added pressure of having to be on their game every night. There's a reason why we filter stats based on games/minutes played. A bit of good luck/streakiness and a bit of low pressure play and you can see stats improve. To me the same principle applies to the awards voting and historically that opinion is backed up.

If Vas won with 52 is it really that different if Rask gets say mid/high 40s?

 

[Pay Carl]

Well for Rask vs Vasi...

Vasi is on pace for 60 starts and 44 wins.
Rask is on pace for 46 starts and 30 wins. Even if he got 50 starts and won those 4 extra games, he's still a full 10 wins behind Vasi.

40+ win seasons are pretty much money in the bank when it comes to Vezina voting. And outside of last year where there wasn't really any workhorse goalie who stood out (outside of Vasi who missed games due to injury but still managed to at least get to 52 games), you pretty much have to have 55 games played to even finish top 3.

so the teamiest stat of all team stats in the world is the one thing you have for saying Vasi is well ahead?

Ok

 

[Kshahdoo]

Rangers trade Georgiev, and then Shesterkin will win all the games left for them and become Vezina winner.

 

[Caeldan]

If Vas won with 52 is it really that different if Rask gets say mid/high 40s?

Yes it is, especially when you have a goalie with 60 starts and excellent season stats. I think there's only ever been a case once of a Vezina winner having under 50 games in an 82 game season and it was something like Roy or Hasek. Last year was out of the ordinary as none of the workhorse goalies pulled out of the pack. I actually had Andersen picked for a while until he failed himself out at the end of the season, and I think Lehner got the third place votes over Fleury due to his comeback story.

so the teamiest stat of all team stats in the world is the one thing you have for saying Vasi is well ahead?

Ok

It's the GMs doing the voting, and it's how they've voted for ages. Games played and wins get heavily weighted. GSAA tends to predict your top 3, but a significant margin of wins will see a lower GSAA take the top honour in that year.

 

[The Laukomotive]

I think 16 starts in 21 games left is pretty seasonable especially because Cassidy has been riding him a bit more and he’s been on fire

also only 3 back to backs the rest of the year

Maybe, but I think Rask and Halak will split 50/50. It’s not just the total amount of games in a season, but also the amount of games in the last stretch before the playoffs.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

so the teamiest stat of all team stats in the world is the one thing you have for saying Vasi is well ahead?

Ok

not only that, leads the biggest team state while playing on arguably the biggest juggernaut in recent memory.

it's not exactly a hard task to rack up wins behind that team.

Rask has a commanding advantage in the actual goalie stats:

.932 sv% vs .921
2.04 gaa vs 2.42
23.10 gsaa vs 15.14
.714 qs% vs .614

 

[ElLeetch]

Shesterkin 4 Vezina

 

[God King Fudge]

First 22 GP for Vasy - 13-8-1 with a .910

Last 22 GP - 19-1-2 with a .931

The Vezina was Vasy's to lose a few seasons ago and he lost it. IMO, it's his to lose again right now.

Lots of guys out there in the running though.

 

[BusQuets]

Not many goalies can have winning record with 91.00%. They shouldn't look at wins so much. Yet they do.